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Accommodative monetary policy, fiscal stimulus and foreign exchange reserves within the framework of Russian national economic interests: Long-standing problems and new challenges 俄罗斯国家经济利益框架下的宽松货币政策、财政刺激和外汇储备:长期存在的问题和新的挑战
I. Nesterov
Ultra-accommodative monetary policy, fiscal stimulus, and, as a result, growing debt were the main features of advanced economies development in the 2010s. The pandemic crises of 2020 intensified those trends. Russian authorities had to respond to the new challenges inspired by the global economic slowdown and massive lockdowns thru adopting relaxing monetary conditions and employing fiscal impetus. However, “the new financial reality” of zero-negative interest rates and fast-growing public debt in major advanced economies highlighted the long-standing problems of international financial architecture as well as created new challenges for the Russian national economy. In the article, the author analyzes monetary, fiscal and debt risks challenging the world economy during the last decade and concludes that under current circumstances continuing accumulation of foreign exchange reserves is resulting in growing dependence of Russia economy on the monetary policy of the world’s leading central banks, creating devaluation pressures on the ruble and, consequently, increasing outside inflationary impact on the domestic economy. Ultimately financing the already inflated budget deficits of the United States, the Eurozone and Japan and thereby feeding the wave of “debt tsunami” that is looming from these economies, the Russian Federation is losing investment resources that are so vital for sustainable economic growth recovery. The main goal of the article is to prove that within the framework of the new global financial reality, the further accumulation of foreign exchange reserves preserves ruble undervaluation and ultimately undermines the sustainable development and economic growth of the Russian economy. The author suggests the key elements for national economic policy aimed to support the domestic economy may and should be ruble appreciation. The adjusted paradigm of Russian economic development based on the import substitution model is a strong argument in favor of this proposal.
超宽松的货币政策、财政刺激以及由此导致的债务增长是发达经济体2010年代发展的主要特征。2020年的大流行危机加剧了这些趋势。面对全球经济放缓和大规模封锁带来的新挑战,俄罗斯当局不得不采取宽松的货币政策和财政刺激措施。然而,主要发达经济体零利率负利率和公共债务快速增长的“新金融现实”凸显了国际金融架构存在的长期问题,也给俄罗斯国民经济带来了新的挑战。在这篇文章中,作者分析了在过去十年中挑战世界经济的货币、财政和债务风险,并得出结论,在当前情况下,外汇储备的持续积累导致俄罗斯经济越来越依赖世界主要央行的货币政策,对卢布造成贬值压力,从而增加外部通货膨胀对国内经济的影响。俄罗斯联邦最终为美国、欧元区和日本已经膨胀的预算赤字提供资金,从而助长了这些经济体正在逼近的“债务海啸”浪潮,俄罗斯联邦正在失去对可持续经济增长复苏至关重要的投资资源。本文的主要目的是证明,在新的全球金融现实框架内,外汇储备的进一步积累维持了卢布的低估,最终破坏了俄罗斯经济的可持续发展和经济增长。作者建议,旨在支持国内经济的国家经济政策的关键要素可能而且应该是卢布升值。基于进口替代模型的俄罗斯经济发展调整范式是支持这一建议的有力论据。
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引用次数: 2
Regulation of broking activities based on assessment of its risks 在对经纪活动进行风险评估的基础上对其进行监管
A. Biktashev
Risk-oriented regulation of brokers is considered in the article. Its implementation helps to improve the quality of regulation and the development of the economy. Risk-based regulation of brokers in theory and practice faces the problem of a lack of indicators and risk assessment system. Therefore, the purpose of the work is to develop proposals for assessing the risks of brokers in regulation. The theoretical substantiation of the study is the approaches of smart and risk-oriented regulation. The method of comparative analysis, methods of description and interpretation, statistical analysis were used. The article identifies risk factors and their indicators based on the analysis of research, foreign and Russian regulatory experience. These indicators are divided into dynamic and constant. The study verifies, using binary logistic regressions, the actual impact of the developed indicators on the work of brokers. Thresholds are defined for dynamic metrics. Exceeding the threshold value indicates an increase in the risks of the broker’s activities. The paper establishes significant indicators and develops a broker risk assessment model. The analysis revealed that some of the current standards do not affect the risks of brokers. Indicators and methods for calculating brokers’ risks can be used by regulators, and the methodology for their development can be applied in other areas.
本文研究了以风险为导向的经纪商监管问题。它的实施有利于提高调控质量和经济发展。券商风险监管在理论和实践中都面临着缺乏指标和风险评估体系的问题。因此,这项工作的目的是制定建议,以评估经纪人在监管中的风险。本研究的理论基础是智能监管和风险导向监管。采用比较分析法、描述解释法、统计分析法。本文在分析国外和俄罗斯监管经验的基础上,确定了风险因素及其指标。这些指标分为动态指标和恒定指标。本研究运用二元logistic回归验证了所制定的指标对券商工作的实际影响。阈值是为动态指标定义的。超过阈值表明经纪人活动的风险增加。本文建立了重要指标,建立了经纪人风险评估模型。分析显示,现行的一些标准并不影响券商的风险。计算经纪人风险的指标和方法可供监管机构使用,其开发方法也可应用于其他领域。
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引用次数: 0
APEC: Assessing progress towards the Bogor goals 亚太经合组织:评估茂物目标的进展
Olga Ismagilova
Over 30 years, the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation has evolved from an informal consultative dialogue into a leading inter-economy forum for promoting open trade and investment, business facilitation, as well as economic and technical cooperation. The number of APEC economies has increased, the agenda has expanded significantly to include, for example, environmental issues, digitalization, and social aspects of regulation. At the same time, in the institutional sphere, the forum has preserved the principle of consensus in decision-making, as well as the voluntary nature of commitments made by participants and the lack of mechanisms to enforce them. There is not much research on the overall results of APEC’s activities, especially on quantitative assessments of sectoral performance. The article provides an overview of international studies analyzing the forum’s achievement in different areas, including the “Bogor Goals” of trade and investment liberalization in the region. In addition, the authors conducted their own quantitative evaluation of APEC’s sectoral performance based on I. Yamazawa’s methodology and developed proposals for improving the methodology. The assessments have shown that APEC has been very successful in promoting the Bogor Goals, though the economies still have not achieved full liberalization of trade and investment in the region by 2020 deadline. Nevertheless, APEC continues its work to promote trade globalization, share regulatory experiences and best practices, harmonize standards, and improve connectivity in the region.
30多年来,亚太经合组织从一个非正式的协商对话发展成为一个主要的经济体间论坛,促进开放的贸易和投资,促进商业便利化,促进经济技术合作。亚太经合组织经济体的数量有所增加,议程也显著扩大,包括环境问题、数字化和监管的社会方面。与此同时,在体制领域,论坛保留了决策的协商一致原则,以及与会者所作承诺的自愿性质和缺乏执行这些承诺的机制。对亚太经合组织活动的总体结果,特别是对部门绩效的定量评估的研究并不多。文章概述了国际研究,分析了论坛在不同领域的成就,包括该地区贸易和投资自由化的“茂物目标”。此外,作者根据山泽的方法对亚太经合组织的部门绩效进行了自己的定量评估,并提出了改进该方法的建议。评估显示,亚太经合组织在推动茂物目标方面非常成功,尽管各经济体仍未在2020年最后期限前实现该地区贸易和投资的完全自由化。尽管如此,亚太经合组织仍将继续推动贸易全球化,分享监管经验和最佳做法,协调标准,改善本地区的互联互通。
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引用次数: 0
Effectiveness of investment activities of managers in the mandatory pension insurance system 强制性养老保险制度中管理者投资活动的有效性
Наталья Брониславовна Болдырева, Людмила Геннадьевна Решетникова
This article examines reasons for the low efficiency of investment activity by pension asset managers, and pension investment rules are formulated. These rules are based on the Asset Allocation strategy, taking into account the long-term pension investments and the life-cycle investment strategy. All pension portfolios of Russiаn managers have weak diversification by asset classes, a high share of fixed income financial instruments, and a mismatch of the portfolio structure with the risk profile of the beneficiary. The pension industry has high costs. We evaluated the real efficiency of investment activity by pension asset managers according to the classical theory of investments, and compared it with the risk-return benchmarks of the Russian financial market. The real cumulative return by pension asset managers is negative for the period 2008–2018. At the same time, the Russian financial market provided opportunities for real growth of pension savings. Bank deposits allowed to defend capital from depreciation. Modeling of index pension portfolios (conservative, balanced, and aggressive) in the Russian financial market, according to pension investment rules, showed a positive impact on investment management efficiency of regular rebalancing of the portfolio containing stocks. The management of index pension portfolios by the proposed rules protect pension savings against inflation. Pension asset managers improve the investment policy efficiency following the pension investment rules.
本文分析了养老金资产管理人投资活动效率低下的原因,并制定了养老金投资规则。这些规则是基于资产配置策略,考虑到长期养老金投资和生命周期投资策略。俄罗斯基金经理的所有养老金投资组合的资产类别多样化程度较低,固定收益金融工具的比例较高,投资组合结构与受益人的风险状况不匹配。养老金行业的成本很高。本文根据经典投资理论对养老金资产管理公司投资活动的实际效率进行了评价,并与俄罗斯金融市场的风险收益基准进行了比较。2008年至2018年期间,养老金资产管理公司的实际累积回报为负。与此同时,俄罗斯金融市场为养老金储蓄的实际增长提供了机会。允许保护资本不贬值的银行存款。根据养老金投资规则,对俄罗斯金融市场的指数型养老金投资组合(保守型、平衡型和激进型)进行建模,发现定期再平衡含股投资组合对投资管理效率有正向影响。拟议规则对指数养老金投资组合的管理可以保护养老金储蓄免受通货膨胀的影响。养老金资产管理人遵循养老金投资规则,提高投资政策效率。
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引用次数: 5
Opportunities and prospects for using digital technologies in auditing 在审计中使用数字技术的机会和前景
V. Yakimova
The digital economy creates new opportunities for the development of all types of economic activity, and first of all it allows to improve the organizational, technical and methodological support of information services, which include audit services. Developing technologies based on artificial intelligence, descriptive and predicative analysis of big data can find an applied aspect in the digitalization of audit activities, which will help to accelerate the collection of information, the transition from manual procedures to computer-aided processing of information, planning algorithms and a deeper understanding of the activities of audited entities. With the development of the market of high (hi-tech) and end-to-end technologies, digitalization of information systems of economic entities, the problems of adapting auditory methodological and organizational-technological tools to current conditions become urgent. Thus, in auditing science there is a paradigm shift: the transition from traditional audit to intellectual (AI audit), the methodology of which is based on machine learning technology in the professional field and the use of professional cognition. The application of the ecosystem approach allows us to describe the features of the content and functional purpose of individual digital technologies for performing cognitive processes in audit activities. A cognitive ecosystem of audit activities is proposed, which is necessary for defining digital technologies, with the help of which specif- ic tasks and directions of audits and audit-related services can be implemented. The proposed ecosystem can be used as a supporting mechanism for creating a comprehensive AI-audit system in audit organizations and for developing AI-audit as a field of scientific knowledge.
数字经济为所有类型的经济活动的发展创造了新的机会,首先,它可以改善包括审计服务在内的信息服务的组织,技术和方法支持。开发基于人工智能、大数据描述性和预测性分析的技术可以在审计活动的数字化中找到一个应用方面,这将有助于加快信息收集、从人工程序到计算机辅助信息处理的过渡、规划算法以及对被审计单位活动的更深入理解。随着高技术和端到端技术市场的发展,经济实体信息系统的数字化,使听觉方法和组织技术工具适应当前形势的问题变得迫切。因此,在审计科学中存在一种范式转变:从传统审计向智能审计(AI审计)的过渡,其方法基于专业领域的机器学习技术和专业认知的使用。生态系统方法的应用使我们能够描述在审计活动中执行认知过程的单个数字技术的内容特征和功能目的。提出了审计活动的认知生态系统,这是定义数字技术所必需的,借助该生态系统,审计和审计相关服务的特定任务和方向可以实现。所提出的生态系统可以作为在审计组织中创建全面的人工智能审计系统的支持机制,并将人工智能审计发展为一个科学知识领域。
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引用次数: 4
Human capital in economic growth theory: Classical models and new approaches 经济增长理论中的人力资本:经典模型与新方法
Булина Анна Олеговна, Мозговая Кристина Александровна, Пахнин Михаил Александрович
For a long time economists have been actively discussing the mechanisms of economic growth. One of the most fundamental factors of economic growth which underlies the variation in per capita income between different countries is human capital, i.e., the stock of knowledge and professional skills embodied in each person. Human capital can be considered as an input used in the production of economic value, just like physical capital — additional investments in human capital (in the form of education or training) earn additional returns. At the same time, from the point of view of economic theory, human capital is very different from other types of capital — in particular, the production of human capital exhibits increasing returns to scale, which is not true for physical capital. This survey aims at discussing the role of human capital in the theory of economic growth. In particular, we address the following issues: why did Adam Smith compare an educated person with an expensive machine; how the growth rate of technical progress and education affect each other; what is the difference between knowledge and human capital as economic goods; how accumulation of human capital leads to leapfrogging; how to measure the level of human capital; why education investment policies in many countries did not succeed in promoting economic growth; how social environment affects the accumulation of human capital; what is human capital externality and how does it operate. We hope that this survey will contribute to the accumulation of human capital in our country.
长期以来,经济学家们一直在积极探讨经济增长的机制。造成不同国家之间人均收入差异的经济增长的最基本因素之一是人力资本,即每个人所拥有的知识和专业技能的存量。人力资本可以被认为是一种用于生产经济价值的投入,就像物质资本一样——对人力资本的额外投资(以教育或培训的形式)可以获得额外的回报。同时,从经济理论的角度来看,人力资本与其他类型的资本有很大的不同,特别是人力资本的生产表现出规模回报递增的趋势,而实物资本则不然。本文旨在探讨人力资本在经济增长理论中的作用。特别是,我们解决以下问题:为什么亚当·斯密将受过良好教育的人比作昂贵的机器;技术进步增长率与教育增长率如何相互影响;作为经济商品的知识和人力资本的区别是什么?人力资本积累如何实现跨越式发展如何衡量人力资本水平;为什么许多国家的教育投资政策未能成功促进经济增长;社会环境对人力资本积累的影响什么是人力资本外部性,它是如何运作的?我们希望这项调查将有助于我国人力资本的积累。
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引用次数: 9
The framework for assessing company’s digital transformation readiness 评估公司数字化转型准备情况的框架
O. Stoianova, T. Lezina, V. Ivanova
At present, the focus of discussions on digital transformation has shifted from issues of its necessity to problems of assessing a company’s readiness for digital transformation. The speci- ficity of digital transformation in Russia requires new criteria of readiness and prioritization of existing criteria. This study explores a combination of factors (prerequisites) that determine the readiness of Russian companies for digital transformation. Our hypothesis is that it is possible to systematize and formalize these prerequisites, which can be presented as a framework for assessing readiness. The purpose of the study is to design such a framework that takes into account not only the current state of the company, but also its previous development. The paper formulates the requirements for the readiness assessment system in the form of a framework. It also proposes a method of desing a framework with these requirements. The method combines analysis of practical cases and theoretical study of modern concepts and best management practices. As a result of applying the proposed method a framework for a company’s readiness for digital transformation assessment (DTRA) is created. The DTRA framework includes criteria and characteristics of readiness grouped into domains. It is in- tended for a qualitative evaluation of readiness and for understanding obstacles to success of the digital transformation.
目前,关于数字化转型的讨论焦点已从必要性问题转移到评估公司数字化转型准备情况的问题上。俄罗斯数字化转型的特殊性需要新的准备标准和现有标准的优先顺序。本研究探讨了决定俄罗斯公司数字化转型准备程度的因素(先决条件)组合。我们的假设是,有可能将这些先决条件系统化和形式化,这可以作为评估准备情况的框架。本研究的目的是设计这样一个框架,不仅考虑到公司的现状,还考虑到公司以前的发展。本文以框架的形式制定了战备评估系统的要求。它还提出了一种设计具有这些要求的框架的方法。该方法结合了对实际案例的分析和对现代概念和最佳管理实践的理论研究。通过应用所提出的方法,创建了一个公司数字化转型准备情况评估(DTRA)框架。DTRA框架包括按领域分组的准备状态的标准和特征。它倾向于对准备情况进行定性评估,并理解数字化转型成功的障碍。
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引用次数: 6
Theoretical concepts of trade policy development and analysis: Evolution and modern challenges in the context of the international trading system transformation 贸易政策发展与分析的理论概念:国际贸易体系转型背景下的演变与现代挑战
A. Koval, O. Trofimenko
The study of the trade policy concepts within a framework of hyperglobalization and global regulation system transformation requires new theoretical and methodological approaches. On the one hand, trade policy design and implementation is closely linked to a wide range of issues from e-commerce to gender inequality. On the other hand, the newest trade theory focuses on studying the companies’ export activities, their participation in global value chains and their trade costs. In addition, research methodology for various quantitative methods has grown significantly. An increasing number of papers deal with the analysis of specific trade policy instruments. However, despite the expanding number of studies on international trade and trade policy in the economic, political and legal fields, the interdisciplinary approach for a deeper understanding of the impact of specific measures on the countries socio-economic development has not yet been developed. The paper presents an integrative review of studies in leading foreign and Russian journals on international trade, as well as a comparative analysis of the identified research areas.
在超级全球化和全球监管体系转型的框架下研究贸易政策概念需要新的理论和方法方法。一方面,贸易政策的设计和实施与从电子商务到性别不平等的广泛问题密切相关。另一方面,最新的贸易理论侧重于研究企业的出口活动、参与全球价值链和贸易成本。此外,各种定量方法的研究方法也有了显著的发展。越来越多的文件涉及对具体贸易政策工具的分析。然而,尽管在经济、政治和法律领域对国际贸易和贸易政策进行了越来越多的研究,但尚未发展出跨学科的方法,以便更深入地了解具体措施对国家社会经济发展的影响。本文对国外和俄罗斯主要国际贸易期刊的研究进行了综合综述,并对所确定的研究领域进行了比较分析。
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引用次数: 0
Customer-oriented innovations: Analysis of development practices (the case of North-West Russian regional companies) 以客户为导向的创新:发展实践分析(以俄罗斯西北部地区公司为例)
N. Molchanov, Yulia Rybakova
The article describes the main stages in the development of methods for joint value creation for product and technological innovations, including: external ventures, open innovations and their support tools, and the current transition from open- to client-oriented innovations and their development and financing tools, including crowd-sourcing and crowd-funding. The use of client-oriented innovations leads to the transformation of companies’ business models. Involving buyers in creation and co-production becomes a key factor in this process. First, it ensures rapid adaptation to clients’ ever-changing needs. Second, sustainable and direct B2C partnerships enhance a company’s competitive position and efficiency. This article presents results of a field study on the practical application of joint venture creation tools in Russian innovation-oriented medium and large companies located in the North-West region. Representativeness of the survey is ensured through coverage of various sectors of the economy and businesses. The survey was conducted twice, in 2014 and 2017, which allowed a dynamic analysis. The study concludes that Russian innovation-oriented companies do not make sufficient use of target tools for creating joint value in the development of incremental innovations. At the same time, characteristics of innovation-oriented companies that influence the application of joint value creation methods were identified, including: novelty of innovations developed by the firm, company size, nature of the relationship with suppliers, etc. National innovation-oriented companies were given recommendations for using the methods of quality function deployment to increase the competitiveness of the developed innovations. It has been recommended to use CRM systems more actively for communicating with consumers.
本文描述了产品和技术创新联合价值创造方法发展的主要阶段,包括:外部风险投资、开放式创新及其支持工具,以及当前从开放式到面向客户的创新及其开发和融资工具的过渡,包括众包和众筹。以客户为导向的创新导致了公司商业模式的转变。在这个过程中,让买家参与到创作和合作生产中来是一个关键因素。首先,它确保快速适应客户不断变化的需求。第二,可持续和直接的B2C伙伴关系提高了公司的竞争地位和效率。本文介绍了一项关于合资企业创建工具在俄罗斯西北地区创新型大中型企业中的实际应用的实地研究结果。调查涵盖了经济和商业的各个部门,确保了调查的代表性。该调查在2014年和2017年进行了两次,以便进行动态分析。研究发现,在渐进式创新的发展过程中,俄罗斯创新型企业没有充分利用目标工具来创造共同价值。同时,确定了影响联合价值创造方法应用的创新型公司的特征,包括:公司开发的创新的新颖性、公司规模、与供应商关系的性质等。为国家创新型企业利用质量功能部署方法提高已开发创新产品的竞争力提供了建议。有人建议更积极地使用CRM系统与消费者进行沟通。
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引用次数: 2
Varieties of capitalist relations in foreign emerging market countries: The problems of typology and research methodology 国外新兴市场国家资本主义关系的多样性:类型学与研究方法论问题
M. Lobanov, S. Glinkina
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Vestnik Sankt-Peterburgskogo Universiteta-Ekonomika-St Petersburg University Journal of Economic Studies
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