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Regime Switching, Asymmetric Correlation and International Portfolio Choices 制度转换、不对称相关与国际投资组合选择
Pub Date : 2010-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1566889
Fathi Abid, Slah Bahloul
The aim of this paper is to investigate the behaviour of international equity returns and correlations using the discrete-time Markov-switching model and the impact of this behaviour on international portfolio choices. We take the perspective of a US-based global investor who considers investment across the six largest major markets over the period from December 1994 to July 2009. Results show that financial markets are characterised by two regimes: a bull and a bear market. Besides, correlations appear to be very important in a bear state and significantly different from those in the bull market. Finally, optimal portfolio weights vary considerably across regimes and over time as investors revise their estimates of the state probabilities.
本文的目的是利用离散时间马尔可夫转换模型研究国际股票收益和相关性的行为,以及这种行为对国际投资组合选择的影响。我们以一位美国全球投资者的视角,考虑1994年12月至2009年7月期间在六大主要市场的投资。结果表明,金融市场具有两种特征:牛市和熊市。此外,相关性在熊市中显得非常重要,与牛市中的相关性明显不同。最后,随着投资者对状态概率的估计不断修正,最优投资组合权重在不同制度和时间内会有很大差异。
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引用次数: 3
China’s Stock Market Integration with a Leading Power and a Close Neighbor 中国股市与大国近邻的融合
Pub Date : 2009-12-31 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1547665
Zheng Yi, Heng Z. Chen, W. Wong
Current integration and co-movement among international stock markets has been boosted by increased globalization of the world economy, and profit-chasing capital surfing across borders. With a reputation as the fastest growing economy in the world, China’s stock market has continued gaining momentum during recent years and incurred growing attention from academicians, as well as practitioners. Taking into account economic and geographical considerations, the US and Hong Kong are considerably the most comparable stock markets to China. The usual vector error correction model (VECM) could overlook the long memory feature of cointegration residual series, which can in turn exert bias on the resulting inferences. To overcome its limitations, we employ a fractionally integrated VECM (FIVECM) in this paper to investigate the long-term cointegration relations binding China’s stock market to the aforementioned stock markets. In addition, by augmenting the FIVECM with multivariate GARCH model, the return transmission and volatility spillover between market return series were revealed simultaneously. Our empirical results show that China’s stock market is fractionally cointegrated with the two markets, and it appears that China’s stock market has stronger ties with its neighboring Hong Kong market than with the world superpower, the US market.
目前国际股票市场的一体化和联合运动是由世界经济日益全球化和逐利资本跨境冲浪推动的。作为世界上增长最快的经济体,中国股市近年来持续增长,引起了学术界和从业者越来越多的关注。考虑到经济和地理因素,美国和香港是与中国最具可比性的股市。通常的向量误差修正模型(VECM)忽略了协整残差序列的长记忆特性,这反过来又会对推断结果产生偏差。为了克服其局限性,本文采用分数积分VECM (FIVECM)来研究中国股票市场与上述股票市场的长期协整关系。此外,通过多元GARCH模型对FIVECM进行扩充,同时揭示了市场收益序列之间的收益传导和波动溢出。我们的实证结果表明,中国股市与这两个市场是部分协整的,而且中国股市与邻近的香港市场的联系似乎比与世界超级大国美国市场的联系更强。
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引用次数: 21
What Influence Firms to Issue International Bond? An Empirical Study of Relationships between Bond Financing and Firms' Financial Characteristics 什么因素影响企业发行国际债券?债券融资与企业财务特征关系的实证研究
Pub Date : 2009-12-10 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.1521862
Gautam Chapagain
In the UK, the share of the international bonds rocketed while the share of government and domestic corporate bonds dropped significantly over the last 10 years. This paper investigates the firm specific factors behind the motivation of issuance of international bonds for the sample of Euro market non-financial bond offerings of UK domiciled firms and uses a sample of domestic corporate bond issuing non-financial UK firms for comparison of these factors. Firm-specific variables are examined based on the determinants of debt choice for both types of firms, namely flotation costs hypothesis, liquidation and renegotiation concerns, asymmetric information, reputation, profitability, growth options and market conditions. To motivate the empirical analysis, a theoretical framework based on the model of financing in international debt markets is employed and used to examine the probability of issuing international bonds by sample firms. The model is further tested using statistical t-tests. Results of this study indicate that international bonds issuing firms are significantly larger in terms of issue size and firm size than firms which issues domestic bonds. This implies that a flotation cost is a concern for an international bond issuing firms. They are high growth firms, and also tend to have higher financial leverage, better liquidation value and stronger reputations than domestic bond issuing firms. The market conditions also seem to provide a favourable opportunity for UK firms to reduce issuing costs by issuing bonds in the international market.
在英国,过去10年,国际债券的份额飙升,而政府和国内公司债券的份额大幅下降。本文以英国注册公司发行欧洲市场非金融债券为样本,研究了企业发行国际债券动机背后的具体因素,并以发行国内非金融公司债券的英国公司为样本,对这些因素进行了比较。根据两类公司债务选择的决定因素,即上市成本假说、清算和重新谈判问题、不对称信息、声誉、盈利能力、增长选择和市场条件,审查了公司特定变量。为了激励实证分析,本文采用了一个基于国际债务市场融资模型的理论框架,并使用它来检验样本公司发行国际债券的概率。使用统计t检验进一步检验模型。研究结果表明,国际债券发行企业在发行规模和企业规模上均显著大于国内债券发行企业。这意味着上市成本是国际债券发行公司关注的问题。它们是高增长公司,而且往往比国内债券发行公司拥有更高的财务杠杆、更好的清算价值和更强的声誉。市场条件似乎也为英国公司提供了一个有利的机会,通过在国际市场上发行债券来降低发行成本。
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引用次数: 1
The Lingering Effects of Country-Level Governance on Cross-Listed Firms 国家治理对交叉上市公司的影响
Pub Date : 2009-12-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1163244
T. Boulton, Kuldeep Shastri
Consistent with studies suggesting that home-country institutions have lingering effects on cross-listed firms, we find that the liquidity of NYSE-listed, non-U.S. firms is related to the perceived institutional quality and governance of the firm‟s home country. Firms from countries perceived as having stronger institutional quality and governance exhibit lower trading costs and less asymmetric information. The enduring effect of home-country institutions extends to non-microstructure measures of information asymmetry, as we find that analyst coverage is positively related to perceived institutional quality and governance. Perception-based measures better explain differences in trading costs than quantitative measures of shareholder rights and earnings quality.
与研究表明母国机构对交叉上市公司有挥之不去的影响一致,我们发现在纽交所上市的非美国公司的流动性。企业与企业所在国的制度质量和治理相关。来自被认为具有较强制度质量和治理的国家的公司表现出较低的交易成本和较少的信息不对称。母国制度的持久影响延伸到信息不对称的非微观指标,因为我们发现分析师覆盖率与感知到的制度质量和治理呈正相关。基于感知的度量比股东权利和盈余质量的量化度量更能解释交易成本的差异。
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引用次数: 2
Do Corporate Governance Motives Drive Hedge Funds and Private Equity Activities? 公司治理动机驱动对冲基金和私募股权活动吗?
Pub Date : 2009-11-21 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1292896
A. Achleitner, A. Betzer, Jasmin Gider
We address the question of whether hedge fund and private equity investments in public firms are motivated by corporate governance improvements. As opposed to traditional financial investors both HF and PE are likely to have the incentives to alleviate agency conflicts. However, against the background of differences in their business models and organizational set ups, it remains an empirical question of whether they address the same or different agency conflicts. Studying HF and PE activities in a typical Continental European market like Germany promises to offer interesting insights about how HF and PE activities relate to the prevalence of family ownership, concentrated ownership structures and conflicts among majority and minority owners. We document empirical evidence that both HF and PE investments are driven by corporate governance improvements, but seem to address different types of agency conflicts. Whereas HF focus on firms with a lack of a controlling shareholder, in particular family shareholders, PE invest in firms which exhibit the potential to align manager-shareholder interests due to low managerial ownership. Both appear to address free cash flow problems differently. Aiming at dividend increases, HF tend use commitment devices that can be implemented over a short horizon. In contrast, PE are inclined to target firms which are particularly well-suited for a leverage increase because of low expected financial distress costs. This strategy requires a sufficiently long investment horizon.
我们探讨了对冲基金和私募股权对上市公司的投资是否受到公司治理改善的激励。与传统的金融投资者不同,私募股权基金和私募股权基金可能都有缓解代理冲突的动机。然而,在商业模式和组织结构不同的背景下,它们解决的代理冲突是相同的还是不同的,这仍然是一个实证问题。在典型的欧洲大陆市场(如德国)研究高频和体育活动,有望提供有趣的见解,了解高频和体育活动与家族所有权的盛行、集中的所有权结构以及多数和少数所有者之间的冲突之间的关系。我们记录了经验证据,证明高频基金和私募股权投资都是由公司治理改进驱动的,但似乎解决了不同类型的代理冲突。私募股权基金关注的是缺乏控股股东(尤其是家族股东)的公司,而私募股权基金则投资于那些由于管理层持股率低而表现出经理人与股东利益一致潜力的公司。两家公司处理自由现金流问题的方式似乎有所不同。以增加股息为目标,高频基金倾向于使用可在短期内实施的承诺装置。相比之下,私募股权公司倾向于瞄准那些由于预期财务困境成本较低而特别适合增加杠杆的公司。这一策略需要足够长的投资期限。
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引用次数: 23
A PDE Pricing Framework for Cross-Currency Interest Rate Derivatives 跨货币利率衍生品的PDE定价框架
Pub Date : 2009-11-08 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1502302
D. Dang, C. Christara, K. Jackson, A. Lakhany
We propose a general framework for efficient pricing via a Partial Differential Equation (PDE) approach of cross-currency interest rate derivatives under the Hull-White model. In particular, we focus on pricing long-dated foreign exchange (FX) interest rate hybrids, namely Power Reverse Dual Currency (PRDC) swaps with Bermudan cancelable features. We formulate the problem in terms of three correlated processes that incorporate FX skew via a local volatility function. This formulation results in a time dependent parabolic PDE in three spatial dimensions. Finite difference methods on uniform grids are used for the spatial discretization of the PDE. The Crank-Nicolson (CN) method and the Alternating Direction Implicit (ADI) method are considered for the time discretization. In the former case, the preconditioned Generalized Minimal Residual (GMRES) method is employed for the solution of the resulting block banded linear system at each time step, with the preconditioner solved by Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) techniques. Numerical results indicate that the numerical methods considered are second-order convergent, and, asymptotically, as the discretization granularity increases, almost optimal, with the ADI method being modestly more efficient than CN-GMRES-FFT. An analysis of the impact of the FX volatility skew on the PRDC swaps' prices is presented, showing that the FX volatility skew results in lower prices (i.e. profits) for the payer of PRDC coupons.
本文通过赫尔-怀特模型下的跨货币利率衍生品的偏微分方程(PDE)方法,提出了有效定价的一般框架。我们特别关注长期外汇(FX)利率混合体的定价,即具有百慕大可取消特征的电力反向双货币(PRDC)掉期。我们根据三个相关的过程来制定问题,这些过程通过局部波动函数纳入外汇倾斜。该公式在三维空间中得到了一个随时间变化的抛物型偏微分方程。采用均匀网格上的有限差分法对PDE进行空间离散化。考虑了Crank-Nicolson (CN)方法和交替方向隐式(ADI)方法进行时间离散化。在前一种情况下,采用预条件广义最小残差(GMRES)方法在每个时间步对得到的块带状线性系统进行求解,并使用快速傅里叶变换(FFT)技术对预条件进行求解。数值结果表明,所考虑的数值方法是二阶收敛的,并且随着离散化粒度的增加,逼近最优,其中ADI方法的效率略高于CN-GMRES-FFT方法。本文分析了外汇波动率偏差对PRDC掉期价格的影响,结果表明,外汇波动率偏差导致PRDC票据支付方的价格(即利润)降低。
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引用次数: 21
On the Growth Effect of Stock Market Liberalizations 论股票市场自由化的增长效应
Pub Date : 2009-11-01 DOI: 10.1093/RFS/HHP001
Nandini Gupta, Kathy Yuan
We investigate the effect of a stock market liberalization on industry growth in emerging markets. Consistent with the view that liberalization reduces financing constraints, we find that industries that are more externally dependent and face better growth opportunities grew faster following liberalization. However, this growth increase appears to come from an expansion in the size of existing firms rather than through the entry of financially constrained new firms. We show that following liberalization, new firm growth occurs in countries and industries with lower entry barriers. Hence, liberalization has a more uniform growth impact if accompanied by competition-enhancing reforms.
我们研究了股票市场自由化对新兴市场产业增长的影响。与自由化减少融资约束的观点一致,我们发现,在自由化之后,对外依存度更高、面临更好增长机会的行业增长更快。然而,这种增长似乎是由于现有公司规模的扩大,而不是由于财政拮据的新公司的进入。我们发现,在自由化之后,新的企业成长发生在进入壁垒较低的国家和行业。因此,如果伴随着促进竞争的改革,自由化对增长的影响会更加一致。
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引用次数: 194
The Emergence of Chinese Multinational Companies (CMCs): Reality, Issues and Challenges 中国跨国公司的兴起:现实、问题与挑战
Pub Date : 2009-10-31 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2169224
S. Barthélémy, Thierry Apoteker
The theme of global rebalancing in economic power is now central to international economic analysis, and the issue of the presence and clout of multinational companies from emerging markets has gained importance, in part because of highly publicised cases of acquisitions of (or attempts at acquiring) companies established in more mature markets, in part because of the uncertain role of sovereign funds in the global reshuffling of corporate ownership. The objective of this paper is to analyse the growing phenomenon of multi-nationalization of China’s companies.The paper makes a detailed analysis of 15 key Chinese Multinational Companies (noted CMCs), and looks at their performance (in absolute figures as well as in comparison with international peers), their strategies and the relationship with policy/political decisions. The analysis shows that such companies are already large by international standards, are growing very rapidly in size, are moving up in technology, and are profitable, notwithstanding a visible downtrend in this profitability over the recent years. They have in general clear internationalisation strategies, even though still at an early stage for most of them. Such internationalization strategies are closely linked to the country’s national or strategic objectives, notably for securing access to natural resources. The influence of political factors and the relation between corporates’ strategies and national objectives remain dominant factors for these CMCs’ development.
全球经济实力再平衡的主题,如今已成为国际经济分析的核心,而新兴市场跨国公司的存在和影响力问题已变得越来越重要,部分原因是一些收购(或试图收购)在更成熟市场成立的公司的案例得到了广泛报道,部分原因是主权基金在全球企业所有权重组中所扮演的角色不确定。本文的目的是分析中国公司日益增长的跨国现象。本文详细分析了15家主要的中国跨国公司(CMCs),并考察了它们的业绩(绝对数字以及与国际同行的比较)、战略以及与政策/政治决策的关系。分析表明,按照国际标准,这些公司已经很大了,规模增长非常迅速,技术进步,而且是盈利的,尽管近年来这种盈利能力有明显的下降趋势。他们总体上有明确的国际化战略,尽管对他们中的大多数来说仍处于早期阶段。这种国际化战略与该国的国家或战略目标密切相关,特别是确保获得自然资源的目标。政治因素的影响以及企业战略与国家目标的关系仍然是这些cmc发展的主导因素。
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引用次数: 2
The Puzzling Peso 令人费解的比索
Pub Date : 2009-09-11 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1478574
In the past decade, some observers have noted an unusual aspect of the Mexican peso's behavior: During periods when the U.S. dollar has risen (fallen) against other major currencies such as the euro, the peso has risen (fallen) against the dollar. Very few other currencies display this behavior. In this paper, we attempt to explain the unusual pattern of the peso's correlation with the dollar by developing some general empirical models of exchange rate correlations. Based on a study of 29 currencies, we find that most of the cross-country variation in exchange rate correlations with the dollar and the euro can be explained by just a few variables. First, a country's currency is more likely to rise against the dollar as the dollar rises against the euro, the closer it is to the United States and the farther it is from the euro area. In this result, distance likely proxies for the role of economic integration in affecting exchange rate correlations. Second, and perhaps more surprisingly, a country's currency is more likely to exhibit this unusual pattern when its sovereign credit rating is more risky. This may reflect that currencies of riskier countries are less substitutable in investor portfolios than those of better-rated countries. All told, these factors well explain the peso's unusual behavior, as Mexico both is very close to the United States and has a lower credit rating than most industrial economies.
在过去的十年里,一些观察人士注意到墨西哥比索的一个不寻常的表现:在美元对欧元等其他主要货币上涨(下跌)的时期,比索对美元上涨(下跌)。很少有其他货币表现出这种行为。在本文中,我们试图通过开发一些汇率相关性的一般经验模型来解释比索与美元相关性的不寻常模式。基于对29种货币的研究,我们发现与美元和欧元的汇率相关性的大多数跨国变化可以用几个变量来解释。首先,当美元对欧元升值时,一个国家的货币对美元升值的可能性越大,这个国家离美国越近,离欧元区越远。在这个结果中,距离可能代表经济一体化在影响汇率相关性方面的作用。其次,也许更令人惊讶的是,当一个国家的主权信用评级风险更高时,该国货币更有可能表现出这种不寻常的模式。这可能反映出,在投资者的投资组合中,风险较高国家的货币比评级较高国家的货币更具可替代性。总而言之,这些因素很好地解释了比索的不寻常行为,因为墨西哥既与美国非常接近,又比大多数工业经济体的信用评级低。
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引用次数: 4
Reforming Through Difficult Times 艰难时期的改革
Pub Date : 2009-09-10 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2448263
World Bank - Doing Business Project
Despite the many challenges, in 2008/09 more governments implemented regulatory reforms aimed at making it easier to do business than in any year since 2004, when Doing Business started to track reforms through its indicators. Doing Business recorded 287 such reforms in 131 economies between June 2008 and May 2009, 20% more than in the year before. Reformers focused on making it easier to start and operate a business, strengthening property rights and improving the efficiency of commercial dispute resolution and bankruptcy procedures.
尽管面临诸多挑战,2008/09年度实施监管改革的政府数量是自2004年《营商环境报告》开始通过指标跟踪改革以来最多的一年。2008年6月至2009年5月期间,《营商环境报告》记录了131个经济体的287项此类改革,比前一年增加了20%。改革的重点是使开办和经营企业更加容易,加强产权保护,提高商业纠纷解决和破产程序的效率。
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引用次数: 29
期刊
FEN: Other International Corporate Finance (Topic)
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