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Inside the Virtuous Cycle between Productivity, Profitability, Investment and Corporate Growth: An Anatomy of China Industrialization 生产率、盈利能力、投资与企业成长的良性循环:对中国工业化的剖析
Pub Date : 2015-05-11 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2605030
Xiodan Yu, G. Dosi, Marco Grazzi, Jiasu Lei
This article explores the dynamics of market selection by investigating of the relationships linking productivity, profitability, investment and growth, based on China's manufacturing firm-level dataset over the period 1998-2007. First, we find that productivity variations, rather than relative levels, are the dominant productivity-related determinant of firm growth, and account for 15%-20% of the variance in firms' growth rates. The direct relation between profitability and firm growth is much weaker as it contributes for less than 5% to explain the different patterns of firm growth. On the other hand, the profitability-growth relationship is mediated via investment. Firm's contemporaneous and lagged profitabilities display positive and significant effect on the probability to report an investment spike, and, in turn, investment activity is related to higher firm growth.
本文基于1998-2007年中国制造业企业层面的数据集,通过研究生产率、盈利能力、投资和增长之间的关系,探讨了市场选择的动态。首先,我们发现生产率变化,而不是相对水平,是企业增长的主要生产率相关决定因素,占企业增长率变化的15%-20%。盈利能力与企业增长之间的直接关系要弱得多,因为它对解释企业增长的不同模式的贡献不到5%。另一方面,盈利能力-增长关系是通过投资来中介的。公司的同期和滞后盈利能力对报告投资高峰的概率显示出积极和显著的影响,反过来,投资活动与更高的公司增长有关。
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引用次数: 23
Inventory Write-Downs in the Semiconductor Industry 半导体行业的存货减记
Pub Date : 2015-04-08 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2836431
Hui Chen, Sundaresh Ramnath, Srinivasan Rangan, S. Rock
We study motives for and impacts of management discretion in inventory valuation. The semiconductor industry, with continual output price declines and rapid product obsolescence, provides an ideal setting to examine managers’ inventory write-down and production decisions. In this context, we develop a measure of ‘excess inventory’ and find that inventory write-downs are strongly correlated with this measure. We also find that inventory write-downs are timed strategically in periods of poor performance consistent with ‘big bath’ incentives. We construct a proxy for abnormal write-downs, and find that it is positively associated with subsequent operating performance, and negatively associated with future write-downs. Neither analysts, nor investors appear to fully appreciate the predictable implications of abnormal write-downs for subsequent operating performance.
我们研究了存货计价中管理自由裁量权的动机和影响。半导体行业的产品价格持续下跌,产品迅速过时,为检查管理者的库存减记和生产决策提供了理想的环境。在这种情况下,我们制定了“过剩库存”的衡量标准,并发现库存减记与这一衡量标准密切相关。我们还发现,在与“大洗浴”激励相一致的业绩不佳时期,库存减记的时间是战略性的。我们构建了异常减记的代理,发现它与后续经营业绩呈正相关,与未来减记负相关。分析师和投资者似乎都没有充分认识到异常减记对随后经营业绩的可预见影响。
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引用次数: 4
Survey on International Portfolio Investments 国际证券投资调查
Pub Date : 2015-03-13 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2577547
Joel Spina
At the end of fiscal year 2013, the level of investment held by U.S.- based businesses and individuals in assets abroad was US$ 21.9 trillion, and the position held by foreign-based counterparties in the U.S. $ 26.5 trillion (B.E.A., 2014). With volumes that exceed 30% of the world GDP (World Bank, 2014), these levels of investment must be rationalized by worthy financial reasons. Do these investments tend to concentrate in certain segments of the global economy, and would these segments and areas tend to change through time, and business cycles? In this survey on international portfolio investment several topics are analyzed, including the reasons for investing in foreign markets, the performance of U.S. versus foreign stocks, the risks involved in such investments, hedging techniques to deal with foreign currency risks, and time horizons to consider when investing overseas. The conclusion that follows is that by investing in international assets, using the appropriate instruments with a reasonable hedging strategy, and over the long-term will produce superior returns compared to a purely domestic investment strategy.
2013财年末,美国企业和个人持有的海外资产投资水平为21.9万亿美元,外国对手方在美国持有的头寸为26.5万亿美元(b.e.a., 2014年)。由于投资额超过世界GDP的30%(世界银行,2014年),这些投资水平必须通过有价值的金融理由加以合理化。这些投资是否倾向于集中在全球经济的某些部分,这些部分和领域是否会随着时间和商业周期而变化?在这个关于国际证券投资的调查中,分析了几个主题,包括投资国外市场的原因,美国股票与外国股票的表现,这种投资所涉及的风险,应对外汇风险的对冲技术,以及投资海外时要考虑的时间范围。由此得出的结论是,通过投资国际资产,使用适当的工具和合理的对冲策略,长期来看,与纯粹的国内投资策略相比,将产生更高的回报。
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引用次数: 0
Inferring Default Correlation from Equity Return Correlation 从股票收益相关性推断违约相关性
Pub Date : 2015-03-01 DOI: 10.1111/eufm.12016
Sheen X. Liu, H. Qi, Jian Shi, Y. Xie
This paper presents a new approach for estimating default correlation by linking default correlation to equity return correlation while preserving the fundamental relation between default and asset correlations in the structural framework. Our hybrid model thus overcomes a long‐standing empirical difficulty that default correlation estimation relies on the unobservable asset process. The empirical analysis shows that our hybrid model demonstrates a considerable improvement over the existing structural model of Zhou (2001) for the sample periods of 1970‐1993 and 1990‐2010. We also illustrate the difference between the two models in predicting default correlations over the period of the 2008 financial crisis.
本文提出了一种估算违约相关性的新方法,将违约相关性与股权收益相关性联系起来,同时在结构框架中保留违约与资产相关性之间的基本关系。因此,我们的混合模型克服了一个长期存在的经验困难,即默认相关性估计依赖于不可观察的资产过程。实证分析表明,对于1970 - 1993年和1990 - 2010年的样本期,我们的混合模型比Zhou(2001)的现有结构模型有了很大的改进。我们还说明了两种模型在预测2008年金融危机期间违约相关性方面的差异。
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引用次数: 2
The Silent Board: How Language Diversity May Influence the Work Processes of Corporate Boards 沉默的董事会:语言多样性如何影响公司董事会的工作流程
Pub Date : 2015-01-01 DOI: 10.1111/corg.12085
R. Piekkari, Lars Oxelheim, Trond Randøy
Manuscript Type. Empirical. Research Question/Issue. Corporate boards often change their working language when they acquire foreign members. Consequently, boards “talk” in one language but “think” in another. The present study explores and explains how language diversity influences work processes of corporate boards. Research Findings/Insights. On the basis of a multiple case study of nine multinational corporations (MNCs) from four Nordic countries, we discovered evidence of impoverished and silenced discussions in board meetings in those case companies that were unprepared to switch to English as the new working language of the board. Some board members found it difficult to contribute to board meetings and articulate disagreement. In contrast, such effects were not revealed in the well‐prepared companies. Overall, the presence of employee representatives on the boards made it more difficult to conduct work processes in English because these members often lacked sufficient language proficiency. Thus, our findings suggest that the board co‐determination act of the Nordic corporate governance model may be associated with the hidden costs of using a non‐native language. Theoretical/Academic Implications. Our study makes four contributions to research on board diversity. Firstly, it highlights the “silencing effect” of language diversity on board processes. Secondly, it emphasizes the linkage between language diversity and board processes. Thirdly, it provides additional evidence that language is a distinct dimension of diversity. Fourthly, it discovers language in board work as a new research topic that is worthy of scholarly attention. Practitioner/Policy Implications. Firms need to anticipate the potential effects of language diversity on the work processes of their boards in order to ensure that “the voice of diversity” is heard. The board itself as well as the rest of the organization can take preparatory measures such as producing all board material in the new working language and selecting board members with the required language proficiency. Although these measures can be implemented gradually or at a faster pace, they need to be in place before foreign members join the board. Consistent use of one and the same language in the corporate board and the executive management team supports transparency and good corporate governance practices. In our opinion, reaping the benefits of board diversity is the particular responsibility of the chairperson. Even though English is generally well understood in the Nordic countries, chairpersons should also consider the possible negative effects associated with the use of a board language that is non‐native to most of its members.
原稿类型。经验。研究问题/问题。公司董事会在收购外国成员时,往往会改变他们的工作语言。因此,董事会用一种语言“说话”,但用另一种语言“思考”。本研究探讨并解释了语言多样性如何影响公司董事会的工作过程。研究发现/见解。在对来自四个北欧国家的九家跨国公司(MNCs)的多个案例研究的基础上,我们发现了董事会会议上讨论贫乏和沉默的证据,这些公司没有准备好将英语作为董事会的新工作语言。一些董事会成员发现很难在董事会会议上发表意见并表达不同意见。相比之下,这种影响在准备充分的公司中没有显现出来。总的来说,董事会中雇员代表的存在使得用英语进行工作流程变得更加困难,因为这些成员往往缺乏足够的语言熟练程度。因此,我们的研究结果表明,北欧公司治理模式的董事会共同决定行为可能与使用非母语的隐性成本有关。理论/学术影响。我们的研究对董事会多样性的研究有四个贡献。首先,它突出了语言多样性在董事会过程中的“沉默效应”。其次,它强调了语言多样性与董事会过程之间的联系。第三,它提供了额外的证据,证明语言是多样性的一个独特维度。第四,发现董事会工作中的语言是一个值得学术关注的新研究课题。医生/政策影响。公司需要预测语言多样性对董事会工作流程的潜在影响,以确保“多样性的声音”被听到。董事会本身以及组织的其他部分可以采取准备措施,例如用新的工作语言制作所有董事会材料,并选择具有所需语言能力的董事会成员。尽管这些措施可以逐步实施或以更快的速度实施,但它们需要在外国成员加入董事会之前到位。在公司董事会和执行管理团队中始终使用同一种语言,有助于提高透明度和良好的公司治理实践。我们认为,从董事会多元化中获益是董事长的特殊责任。尽管在北欧国家,英语普遍被很好地理解,但主席也应该考虑到使用大多数成员非母语的董事会语言可能带来的负面影响。
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引用次数: 66
Profitability and Investment Factors for UK Asset Pricing Models 英国资产定价模型的盈利能力和投资因素
Pub Date : 2014-10-17 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2511166
Eoghan Nichol, M. Dowling
Two recent asset pricing models share a common core of the addition of profitability and investment as factors, but differ in implementation. We adapt these models for the UK and argue that the Fama–French five-factor profitability factor offers the most potential.
最近的两种资产定价模型都有一个共同的核心,即将盈利能力和投资作为因素,但在实施上有所不同。我们将这些模型适用于英国,并认为Fama-French的五因素盈利因素最有潜力。
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引用次数: 33
The Dispersion Effect in International Stock Returns 国际股票收益的分散效应
Pub Date : 2014-09-03 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1139412
Markus Leippold, Harald Lohre
We find that stocks exhibiting high dispersion in analysts' earnings forecasts not only underperform in the U.S. but also in some European countries. Investigating the abnormal returns generated by the dispersion strategy around the world for the 1990–2008 sample period, we observe that the returns of the strategy are uneven, with large abnormal returns realized during the mid-to-late 1990s and the 2000–2003 period. In particular, we document that the dispersion effect is most profitable in a very narrow time frame around the burst of the technology bubble. As a consequence, the dispersion hedge strategy would have been rather difficult to implement, especially given that the highest mispricing obtains for stocks characterized by high arbitrage costs.
我们发现,在分析师的收益预测中表现出高度分散性的股票不仅在美国表现不佳,在一些欧洲国家也是如此。通过对1990-2008年样本期全球范围内分散策略产生的异常收益进行分析,我们发现该策略的收益是不均衡的,在20世纪90年代中后期和2000-2003年期间实现了较大的异常收益。特别是,我们证明了分散效应在技术泡沫破裂前后的一个非常狭窄的时间框架内是最有利可图的。因此,分散对冲策略将相当难以实施,特别是考虑到以高套利成本为特征的股票的最高错误定价。
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引用次数: 8
Examining the Impact of Stock Market Development on Economic Growth: Dynamic Panel Evidence from Emerging Market Economies 考察股市发展对经济增长的影响:来自新兴市场经济体的动态面板证据
Pub Date : 2014-08-04 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2475984
P. K. Naik, Puja Padhi
This study empirically reexamines the impact of stock market development on economic growth using data on twenty-seven emerging market economies over the period 1995-2012. We use market capitalization, trade value and turnover ratio as indicators of stock market development. Also, we construct three alternate composite indices of stock market development and used them in the growth regression each at a time. Methodologically, we employ the dynamic panel ‘system GMM’ estimators which is free from the problem of endogeneity and measurement errors; secondly, a 2nd generation panel unit root test of Pesaran (2007) is employed to test the stationary properties of data; finally, in order to test the direction of causality we make use of a newly developed panel non-causality test of Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012) which is designed for heterogeneous panel. Our empirical findings indicate that stock market development significantly contributes to economic growth. This is evident in all the three alternate indices of financial development employed in the study. Further, we find a unidirectional causation running from stock market development to economic growth, supporting the supply-leading hypothesis. We also find that macroeconomic variables, such as investment ratio, trade openness and exchange rate have strong influence on economic growth. Thus, the study suggests that significant improvement of stock markets, making the economy internationally open, and improving the aggregate investment the emerging market economies can improve their economy.
本文利用1995-2012年27个新兴市场经济体的数据,对股市发展对经济增长的影响进行了实证研究。我们用市值、交易额和换手率作为股票市场发展的指标。此外,我们还构建了三个股票市场发展的交替复合指数,并将它们分别用于增长回归。在方法上,我们采用动态面板“系统GMM”估计,它不存在内生性和测量误差问题;其次,采用Pesaran(2007)的第二代面板单位根检验来检验数据的平稳性;最后,为了检验因果关系的方向,我们使用了Dumitrescu和Hurlin(2012)新开发的针对异质性面板的面板非因果检验。实证结果表明,股票市场的发展对经济增长有显著的促进作用。这在研究中使用的所有三个替代金融发展指数中都很明显。进一步,我们发现了从股市发展到经济增长的单向因果关系,支持了供给主导假说。我们还发现,投资比率、贸易开放程度和汇率等宏观经济变量对经济增长有很强的影响。因此,研究表明,显著改善股票市场,使经济向国际开放,提高新兴市场经济体的总投资可以改善其经济。
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引用次数: 1
The Effects of Government Quality on Corporate Cash Holdings 政府质量对企业现金持有量的影响
Pub Date : 2014-06-17 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1969711
Deqiu Chen, Sifei Li, J. Xiao, H. Zou
We use China as a laboratory to test the effect of government quality on cash holdings. We build on, and extend, the existing literature on government expropriation and its interaction with firm-level agency problems by proposing a financial constraint mitigation argument. We find that firms hold less cash when local government quality is high, which is not consistent with the state expropriation argument, but supports the financial constraint mitigation argument. A good government lowers the investment sensitivity to cash flows and cash sensitivity to cash flows, decreases cash holdings more significantly in private firms, and improves access to bank and trade credit financing. We also test and find support for Stulz's (2005) model on the interaction between government and firm agency problems.
我们以中国为实验室来检验政府质量对现金持有量的影响。我们在现有关于政府征用及其与企业层面代理问题相互作用的文献的基础上,通过提出缓解财政约束的论点,对其进行了扩展。我们发现,当地方政府质量高时,企业持有的现金较少,这与国家征收的观点不一致,但支持财政约束缓解的观点。一个好的政府会降低投资对现金流的敏感性和现金对现金流的敏感性,更显著地减少私营企业的现金持有量,并改善获得银行和贸易信贷融资的机会。我们还测试了Stulz(2005)关于政府和企业代理问题之间相互作用的模型,并找到了支持。
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引用次数: 119
The Value Impact of Stock Liquidity: An International Evidence 股票流动性的价值影响:一个国际证据
Pub Date : 2013-01-29 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2208875
Tao Huang, Fei Wu, Jing Yu, Bohui Zhang
This study addresses an important issue about the role of stock market in corporate finance by directly examining the effect of stock liquidity on firm value on a broad sample of firms from 53 countries for the period 1981-2010. Consistent with finance theory, we document a strong positive association between stock liquidity and firm value at both the firm and country levels. This finding is robust to alternative stock liquidity measures and is not driven by the endogeneity problem. We further explore how country characteristics on investor protection affect the value impact of liquidity. The results show that strong investor protection and transparent financial reporting environments magnify the importance of stock liquidity to firm value. However, global market integration weakens the effects of local country's investor protection regimes.
本研究通过对1981-2010年期间来自53个国家的公司的广泛样本直接检查股票流动性对公司价值的影响,解决了股票市场在公司融资中的作用这一重要问题。与金融理论一致,我们在公司和国家层面上记录了股票流动性与公司价值之间的强烈正相关关系。这一发现是稳健的替代股票流动性措施,并不是由内生性问题驱动。我们进一步探讨了投资者保护的国家特征如何影响流动性的价值影响。结果表明,强有力的投资者保护和透明的财务报告环境放大了股票流动性对公司价值的重要性。然而,全球市场一体化削弱了当地国家投资者保护制度的作用。
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引用次数: 7
期刊
FEN: Other International Corporate Finance (Topic)
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