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Incomplete Transition – Is there a “Mid-Transition Trap”? 不完全过渡——是否存在“过渡中期陷阱”?
IF 0.6 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI: 10.2478/zireb-2020-0023
I. Vujačić, Jelica Petrović-Vujačić
Abstract The subject of this paper is the analysis of the classification of economic systems. The traditional classifications of capitalist, socialist centrally planned, and socialist market systems, and the newer classification of variants of capitalism into the Anglo-Saxon, European continental, and Asian models, are inadequate to explain new phenomena in a globalized economy. After the collapse of central planning, countries in transition became a category describing processes of deep socio-economic transformation. These transition countries aspired to meet the standards of developed European market economies, as well as governance standards regarding democracy, human rights, and the rule of law. A new classification of economic systems by Balcerowicz (2014) combines the traditional classification of economic systems with the characteristics of well-governed democratic societies in order to come up with a matrix that shows the interaction of economic system characteristics and governance outcomes.This paper builds on Balcerowicz’s classification by introducing and delineating the categories of state capitalism, crony capitalism, and state capture in order to provide a new classification of economic systems. It uses these concepts to empirically analyze the transition countries, with special reference to states aspiring to EU membership and the new EU member states. The methodology used is analytical and empirical. The results find that the transition is incomplete, especially in terms of governance, leading to the hypothesis of a ‘mid-transition trap’, similar to the much discussed ‘middle-income trap’. The results should lead to further, more refined research.
摘要本文的主题是分析经济系统的分类。资本主义、社会主义中央计划和社会主义市场体系的传统分类,以及将资本主义变体分类为盎格鲁-撒克逊、欧洲大陆和亚洲模式的新分类,都不足以解释全球化经济中的新现象。在中央计划崩溃后,转型期国家成为描述深刻的社会经济转型过程的一个类别。这些转型期国家渴望达到欧洲发达市场经济体的标准,以及民主、人权和法治方面的治理标准。Balcerowicz(2014)提出的一种新的经济制度分类将传统的经济制度归类与治理良好的民主社会的特征相结合,以得出一个显示经济制度特征与治理结果相互作用的矩阵。本文在Balcerowicz的分类基础上,引入并界定了国家资本主义、裙带资本主义和国家俘获的类别,以提供一种新的经济制度分类。它利用这些概念对转型国家进行实证分析,特别是希望加入欧盟的国家和新的欧盟成员国。所使用的方法是分析和实证的。研究结果发现,过渡是不完整的,尤其是在治理方面,导致了“中期过渡陷阱”的假设,类似于备受讨论的“中等收入陷阱”。研究结果应该会带来更深入、更精细的研究。
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引用次数: 2
The R&D Spillovers, Innovation and Knowledge-based Economy 研发溢出、创新与知识经济
IF 0.6 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI: 10.2478/zireb-2020-0025
O. Miroshnychenko
Abstract The R&D processes generate knowledge and enhance innovation activity. Knowledge and ideas developed by one agent may spill over to and can be used for economic and acquired by other agents. The results of these processes are known as the R&D spillover effects. Factors, that have influence on innovation diffusion, and determine the place of the R&D spillovers in knowledge-based economy have been investigated in the article. The definition and types of knowledge have been examined. The relationship between the R&D cooperation, different types of knowledge, knowledge spillovers and innovation have been traced. The main objectives of the paper are to consider the concept of the R&D spillovers and connection between different types of knowledge and the R&D spillover effects. Systematic comparative analysis, synthesis and generalization of the scientific literature have been carried out in order to create the theoretical background of the research of the R&D spillovers and innovation. The qualitative research methods have been employed to investigate relationship between the R&D spillovers and different types of knowledge. The R&D positive effect of spillovers on innovation activity, promotion of cooperation between different agents (individuals, business entities, organizations, and countries), spreadability and access to knowledge on nonprofit basis and enhancement of innovation diffusion have been identified.
摘要研发过程产生知识并增强创新活动。一个代理人开发的知识和想法可能会扩散到其他代理人,并可用于经济目的和由其他代理人获得。这些过程的结果被称为研发溢出效应。本文研究了知识经济中影响创新扩散的因素,以及决定研发溢出位置的因素。对知识的定义和类型进行了审查。追溯了研发合作、不同类型的知识、知识溢出和创新之间的关系。本文的主要目的是考虑研发溢出的概念以及不同类型知识与研发溢出效应之间的联系。对科学文献进行了系统的比较分析、综合和概括,为研究研发溢出和创新创造了理论背景。采用定性研究方法研究了研发溢出效应和不同类型知识之间的关系。溢出效应对创新活动、促进不同主体(个人、商业实体、组织和国家)之间的合作、在非营利基础上知识的可传播性和可获取性以及增强创新扩散的研发积极影响已经被确定。
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引用次数: 1
Balance of Payments Deficit and Currency Board Arrangement Sustainability in Bosnia and Herzegovina 波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那的国际收支赤字和货币发行局安排的可持续性
IF 0.6 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI: 10.2478/zireb-2020-0022
Siniša Kurteš, Srđan Amidžić, P. Rajčević
Abstract Constant current account deficit in Bosnia and Herzegovina results from a large foreign trade imbalance, which in turn is a consequence of uncompetitiveness of the economy in the global market. The current account deficit is mainly financed by foreign remittances, foreign aid, and least of all by foreign investment. Lately, the outflow of the active, working population has been decreasing the labor force (especially the qualified and highly educated employees), as well as the domestic demand, which will exert further pressure on the balance of payments account. On the other hand, monetary policy is operating under the principles of currency board, i.e. applying a firm exchange rate, so the question arises whether and to what extent it is sustainable, under the conditions of a high current account deficit. The purpose of this paper is precisely to examine the relation between the deficit of balance of payments and the sustainability of the currency board arrangement in Bosnia and Herzegovina, under such conditions.
摘要波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那经常账户持续赤字是由于对外贸易严重失衡造成的,而对外贸易失衡又是经济在全球市场上缺乏竞争力的结果。经常账户赤字主要由外国汇款、外国援助提供资金,尤其是外国投资。最近,活跃的劳动人口的外流一直在减少劳动力(尤其是合格和受过高等教育的员工)以及国内需求,这将对国际收支账户施加进一步的压力。另一方面,货币政策是在货币发行局的原则下运作的,即采用固定汇率,因此,在经常账户赤字高的情况下,货币政策是否可持续以及在多大程度上可持续就成了问题。本文的目的正是研究在这种情况下,国际收支逆差与波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那货币发行局安排的可持续性之间的关系。
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引用次数: 0
Does High Population Density Catalyze the Spread of COVID-19? 高人口密度会促进COVID-19的传播吗?
IF 0.6 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI: 10.2478/zireb-2020-0020
Berislav Žmuk, Hrvoje Jošić
Abstract COVID-19 represents not only public health emergency but has become a global economic problem. It has affected all economic sectors threatening global poverty. The important question that arises is what catalyses the spread of the disease? In this paper the relationship between population density and spread of COVID-19 is observed which is goal of the paper. For the purpose of the analysis the correlation between the population variables and COVID-19 variables on a global country level (209 countries) and regional level of individual countries with the most cases of infection is observed. The results have shown that on a country level variable population is statistically significant in all regression models for total cases, deaths and total tests variables whereas variable population density was not. The research results from this paper can be important and relevant for economic and health policy makers to guide COVID-19 surveillance and public health decision-making.
摘要新冠肺炎不仅是突发公共卫生事件,而且已成为全球经济问题。它影响了威胁全球贫困的所有经济部门。出现的重要问题是,是什么催化了疾病的传播?本文观察了新冠肺炎的人口密度与传播的关系。为了进行分析,观察了全球国家一级(209个国家)和感染病例最多的个别国家的区域一级的人口变量与新冠肺炎变量之间的相关性。结果表明,在国家一级,总病例、死亡和总检测变量的所有回归模型中,可变人口具有统计学意义,而可变人口密度则不然。本文的研究结果对经济和卫生政策制定者指导新冠肺炎监测和公共卫生决策具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 4
Towards better understanding electronic music festivals motivation 更好地理解电子音乐节的动机
IF 0.6 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-11-01 DOI: 10.2478/zireb-2020-0018
Danijela Ferjanić Hodak, Goran Belošević, A. Vlahov
Abstract Electronic music festivals became one of the most successful forms of tourism for young adults. In the paper, authors aimed to explored the motivation and the perception of the potential visitors of electronic music festivals in Croatia and to identify the key dimensions of electronic music festivals. Instrument used for the primary research was a structured on-line questionnaire distributed among students of the University of Zagreb. In total, 350 questionnaires were collected and analyzed. Factor analyses resulted with three factors concerning motivation (music and fun, travel, socialization). Motives with the highest mean value are closely related with the core of electronic music festival offer, but other motives should not be neglected. Paper provides several recommendations for the improvement of electronic music festival offer and suggest the direction and possibilities for the future research.
电子音乐节已成为年轻人最成功的旅游形式之一。在本文中,作者旨在探讨克罗地亚电子音乐节潜在游客的动机和感知,并确定电子音乐节的关键维度。用于初步研究的工具是在萨格勒布大学的学生中分发的结构化在线问卷。共收集和分析了350份问卷。因素分析结果显示,与动机相关的因素有三个(音乐和娱乐、旅行、社交)。平均值最高的动机与电子音乐节提供的核心内容密切相关,但其他动机也不容忽视。论文对电子音乐节活动的改进提出了几点建议,并提出了未来研究的方向和可能性。
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引用次数: 0
Inflation Theories and Inflation Persistence in Iran 通货膨胀理论与伊朗的通货膨胀持续性
IF 0.6 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-11-01 DOI: 10.2478/zireb-2020-0011
Hamidreza Ghorbani Dastgerdi
Abstract This study focuses on: (1) finding the causes of inflation which follows the inflation theories such as Demand-Pull, Cost-Push and Structural inflation.(2) measuring the degree of inflation persistence in order to evaluate the ability of monetary policies to control inflation. Engle- Granger test and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag are applied to analyze the response of inflation to its determinants. The Grid bootstrap Method and Impulse Response Functions measure the inflation persistence. The results suggest that controlling the money supply is a key factor in controlling inflation. The appreciation of Rial exchange rate is an important factor of low inflation. It is increased as a result of Budget deficit while decreased due to oil price and real GDP. Inflation persistence follows the structural changes and finally permanent shocks die out after some horizons. Therefore, monetary authorities control inflation but their policies are yet far from optimal level.
摘要本研究的重点是:(1)根据需求拉动、成本推动和结构性通货膨胀理论寻找通货膨胀的成因;(2)衡量通货膨胀的持续程度,以评价货币政策控制通货膨胀的能力。运用恩格尔-格兰杰检验和自回归分布滞后分析了通货膨胀对其决定因素的响应。网格自举法和脉冲响应函数测量了膨胀的持久性。结果表明,控制货币供应量是控制通货膨胀的关键因素。里亚尔汇率的升值是低通胀的一个重要因素。它因预算赤字而增加,而因油价和实际GDP而减少。通胀持续伴随着结构性变化,最终永久性冲击会在一段时间后消失。因此,货币当局控制了通货膨胀,但其政策还远未达到最优水平。
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引用次数: 3
New EU member states’ emigration: Projections for future and lessons for the new EU candidates 新欧盟成员国的移民:对未来的预测和新欧盟候选人的经验教训
IF 0.6 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-11-01 DOI: 10.2478/zireb-2020-0017
I. Herceg, T. Herceg, L. Škuflić
Abstract Unlike the old member states that compensate the negative net birth rate with immigration, the new EU member states face both migrational and natural demographic decline. In the last decade, poor level of economic development as well as the accession to the EU encouraged net emigration from the new member states. Panel data for the 12 new member states for the 2007 - 2016 period were used to determine how the length of membership and GDP per capita trailing behind the EU average affect the proportion of the net emigration. It has been shown that on average a country has to reach at least 85 percent of the average EU GDP p.c. (measured in PPS) to prevent emigration, but this level increases with each year of membership by 1.37 percentage points.
摘要与用移民补偿负净出生率的旧成员国不同,新的欧盟成员国面临着移民和自然人口的双重下降。在过去十年中,糟糕的经济发展水平以及加入欧盟鼓励了新成员国的净移民。使用12个新成员国2007-2016年期间的小组数据来确定成员国的长度和落后于欧盟平均水平的人均GDP如何影响净移民的比例。研究表明,一个国家平均必须达到欧盟平均GDP的85%(以PPS衡量)才能防止移民,但这一水平随着成员国的加入每年增加1.37个百分点。
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引用次数: 4
A-KA Model: an Optimization of the Stock’s Portofolio A-KA模型:股票投资组合的优化
IF 0.6 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-11-01 DOI: 10.2478/zireb-2020-0012
Filippo Regina, M. Bisceglia
Abstract The elaborate proposes a compact alternative methodology to the classical stocks portfolio optimization based on the normal distribution of the returns of the assets named Adaptable - Kurtosis Asymmetry model (A-KA). In the financial theory is well-known that odd-order moments of a distribution describe a particular performance characteristic; on the contrary, the even-order moments tell a precise sense of risk of a distribution of returns. If it is true that, in general terms, minimizing the variance also minimizes the volatility of portfolio return is also true that we should minimize the kurtosis to get away from unpleasant situations in case “Extreme” events occur, especially if negative. The idea behind this paper is to exploit the four moments of return’s distributions, optimizing an alternative risk indicator to variance, such as the kurtosis of the final distribution of the portfolio, making constraints on distributive asymmetry, in a dynamic underlying logic.
摘要本文提出了一种基于资产收益正态分布的经典股票投资组合优化的紧凑替代方法——自适应峰度不对称模型(a-KA)。在金融理论中,众所周知,分布的奇数阶矩描述了一个特定的性能特征;相反,偶数阶矩反映了收益分布的精确风险感。如果在一般情况下,方差最小化也会使投资组合回报的波动性最小化,那么在“极端”事件发生的情况下,尤其是在负面情况下,我们也应该最小化峰度,以避免不愉快的情况。本文背后的想法是利用收益率分布的四个矩,在动态底层逻辑中优化方差的替代风险指标,如投资组合最终分布的峰度,对分配不对称性进行约束。
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引用次数: 1
Import-economic growth nexus in selected African countries: An application of the Toda-Yamamoto Granger non-causality test 特定非洲国家的进口-经济增长关系:Toda-Yamamoto Granger非因果检验的应用
IF 0.6 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-11-01 DOI: 10.2478/zireb-2020-0016
O. Aluko, Adefemi A. Obalade
Abstract We determine the nexus between imports and economic growth for a sample of 26 African countries for the period 1990-2015 within the neoclassical production function framework. We mainly contribute to literature by overcoming the weak theoretical modelling framework and possible model specification bias in most extant studies. Using the Toda-Yamamoto Granger non-causality test, the empirical results indicate that there is absence of causality between imports and economic growth in more than half of the countries in the sample, thus suggesting that neutrality hypothesis is predominant among the countries. We provide ample evidence that causality is absent from imports to economic growth. However, our results should be treated with caution because the absence of causality from imports to economic growth should not imply that imports do not play a role in the growth process of an economy.
本文在新古典生产函数框架下,以1990-2015年26个非洲国家为样本,确定了进口与经济增长之间的关系。我们主要通过克服大多数现有研究中薄弱的理论建模框架和可能的模型规范偏差来贡献文献。利用Toda-Yamamoto格兰杰非因果检验,实证结果表明,在样本中超过一半的国家,进口与经济增长之间不存在因果关系,表明中性假设在这些国家中占主导地位。我们提供了充足的证据,证明进口与经济增长之间不存在因果关系。然而,我们的结果应该谨慎对待,因为进口与经济增长之间没有因果关系并不意味着进口在经济增长过程中没有发挥作用。
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引用次数: 2
An Investigation on the Share of Rural and Urban Households’ Expenditure as A Basis to Determine Economic Policies for Iran 以伊朗农村和城市家庭支出份额作为确定经济政策基础的调查
IF 0.6 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-11-01 DOI: 10.2478/zireb-2020-0013
H. Izadi
Abstract Many countries implement plans and programs whose purpose is low-income class protection and increase the purchasing power in order to eradicate poverty. The most common plan is the subsidies payment for consumption of deficits. Governments provide inexpensive goods and services and help to make price stability for necessities by applying policy in consumption sector. This research studies consumption expenditure shares in rural and urban households according to the importance of this issue and accordingly expenditure shares are rated and it is the basis of targeting subsidy policy. This article by use the MICROFIT program (ARDL method, 42 observations used for estimation from 1977 to 2019), tries to survey the short and long-term relationship, the dynamic relationship of short-term trend toward long-term equilibrium, diagnostic and structural break tests for the variables and the household costs function. According to the results of statistic tests, the model presented the best possible status of classic hypotheses and statistics and therefore confirm the relationship and co-integration between the variable of cost function and finally, structural stability is accepted. By comparing the urban household costs, according to the results we can say that the food is ranked among the goods with low rank, therefore, targeting the subsidies is less important than the rest of the cost. Also, the cost share of clothing goods is totally high for households and in urban households’ expenditures, the cost share of these goods is higher than the rest, so these costs play an important role in targeting the subsidies and should be taken into consideration. By comparing the rural household costs, we can say, the contribution of educational, cultural and recreational services costs for rural households is high and thus the share of the allocated expenditures for such goods is higher than the rest. Therefore, these costs play an important role in targeting the subsidies and should be taken into consideration. Finally, targeting subsidy helps government to arrange subsidy rate of different goods correctly. and give the most to low income classes to boost social welfare. Result show that targeting subsidy in rural and urban is different because of different expenditures share in household budget, and the same economics policy for these two household types is not correct.
许多国家实施旨在保护低收入阶层和提高购买力的计划和方案,以消除贫困。最常见的计划是对赤字消费的补贴支付。政府通过在消费领域实施政策,提供廉价的商品和服务,帮助稳定生活必需品的价格。本研究根据该问题的重要性对城乡居民家庭的消费支出占比进行了研究,并据此对消费支出占比进行了评级,这是制定针对性补贴政策的依据。本文采用MICROFIT程序(ARDL方法,使用42个观测值进行1977 - 2019年的估计),试图考察短期和长期关系、短期趋势走向长期均衡的动态关系、变量的诊断检验和结构断裂检验以及家庭成本函数。根据统计检验的结果,该模型呈现了经典假设和统计的最佳状态,从而证实了成本函数变量之间的关系和协整,最终接受了结构的稳定性。通过比较城市家庭的成本,根据结果我们可以说,食品是排名较低的商品,因此,针对补贴的重要性低于其他成本。另外,服装类商品的成本占比对于家庭来说是非常高的,在城镇家庭的支出中,服装类商品的成本占比高于其他商品,因此服装类商品的成本对补贴的针对性有着重要的影响,应该予以考虑。通过比较农村家庭的成本,我们可以说,教育、文化和娱乐服务成本对农村家庭的贡献很大,因此这些商品的分配支出份额高于其他商品。因此,这些成本对补贴的针对性起着重要作用,应予以考虑。最后,定向补贴有助于政府正确安排不同商品的补贴率。并向低收入阶层提供最多的福利,以提高社会福利。结果表明,由于家庭支出占家庭预算的比重不同,农村和城市的针对性补贴存在差异,对这两种家庭类型实行相同的经济政策是不正确的。
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引用次数: 1
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Zagreb International Review of Economics & Business
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