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FDI and Economic Growth – Perspective of Southeast European Countries 外国直接投资与经济增长——以东南欧国家为例
IF 0.6 Pub Date : 2023-05-01 DOI: 10.2478/zireb-2023-0006
Dražen Derado, Darko Horvatin
Abstract Emergence of new economic entities, through either integration or disintegration, always creates system inefficiencies resulting in temporary economic setbacks. At the macroeconomic level, this brings about slowdown in economic growth and delayed catching up with more advanced economies. In Europe, the turn of the century brought along political and economic disintegration, on one hand, and economic integration, on the other. Demise of planned economies across Eastern Europe caused serious economic turmoil due to market fragmentation. Meanwhile, creation of new economic architecture in the European Union (EU) has created additional challenges of economic restructuring. Therefore, achieving sustainable economic growth and high income has become the ultimate economic policy objective. Equity investment in form of foreign direct investment (FDI) has proven to be the right choice, because influx of fresh capital and know-how enabled strong economic growth and restructuring through increasing labor productivity and economic efficiency. Stronger competitive pressure through FDI contributed to dynamic restructuring, resembling in increasing exports and stronger integration into global economy. Yet, growth rates across countries were not always proportional to the volume of inward FDI, which indicates a certain level of underperformance for some countries. The aim of the paper is to closer investigate the FDI-growth nexus by differentiating between two types of FDI – mergers and acquisition (M&A) and greenfield investment. Thus, the analysis will take account of the characteristics of the FDI host economy, and those of the investing company, because we find it reasonable to assume that different forms of FDI incorporate different business dynamics and the time horizon of the investor’s expectations. In order to find out the effects of different forms of FDI on economic growth we apply panel data analysis with fixed effects and Prais-Winsten estimator on the sample of European reform countries whereby FDI, M&A and greenfield investment are considered the key variables. Analysis also includes a set of control variables, which combine standard neoclassical growth variables. Results indicate that, with reference to the level of innovativeness, different types of FDI indeed produce different effects on host countries’ economic growth.
摘要新经济实体的出现,无论是通过整合还是解体,总是会造成系统效率低下,从而导致暂时的经济挫折。在宏观经济层面,这导致经济增长放缓,并推迟了对更发达经济体的追赶。在欧洲,世纪之交一方面带来了政治和经济解体,另一方面也带来了经济一体化。东欧各地计划经济的衰退由于市场分割而造成严重的经济动荡。与此同时,欧盟(EU)新经济架构的建立给经济结构调整带来了额外的挑战。因此,实现可持续的经济增长和高收入已成为最终的经济政策目标。事实证明,外国直接投资形式的股权投资是正确的选择,因为新资本和专业知识的流入通过提高劳动生产率和经济效率,实现了强劲的经济增长和结构调整。外国直接投资带来的更大竞争压力有助于动态重组,类似于增加出口和更有力地融入全球经济。然而,各国的增长率并不总是与外国直接投资的流入量成正比,这表明一些国家的表现不佳。本文的目的是通过区分两种类型的外国直接投资——并购和绿地投资,来更深入地研究外国直接投资与增长的关系。因此,分析将考虑外国直接投资东道国经济和投资公司的特点,因为我们发现可以合理地假设不同形式的外国直接投资包含不同的商业动态和投资者期望的时间范围。为了找出不同形式的外国直接投资对经济增长的影响,我们对欧洲改革国家的样本应用了固定效应面板数据分析和Prais-Winsten估计,其中外国直接投资、并购和绿地投资被认为是关键变量。分析还包括一组控制变量,这些变量结合了标准的新古典增长变量。结果表明,就创新水平而言,不同类型的外国直接投资确实对东道国的经济增长产生了不同的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Algerian Country during the Period 1990-2017 1990-2017年期间阿尔及利亚外国直接投资的决定因素
IF 0.6 Pub Date : 2023-05-01 DOI: 10.2478/zireb-2023-0009
Fouad Mahfoudi, Bilal Louail
Abstract The importance of the research is to identify the determinants of foreign direct investment in Algeria and to determine them accurately based on previous studies. We used a model of regression Multiple to identify significant determinants of FDI in the period 1990-2017. The results indicate having a positive and significant effect for both the GDP and economic openness on the outside world. Moreover, the effect negative significant for inflation and economic openness (LNINF1LNOPNESSG). The effect was positive but not significant for the increase in population and GDP per capita. Some of the variables that could affect the results and give better results neglected and this is considered a deficiency in this research and could be problematic for future research. Decision-makers in Algeria can benefit from the results of this research to attract the most foreign direct investment. The study period and the method of estimating the model for the case of Algeria considered as a gap that can add new to the subject of foreign direct investment in Algeria.
摘要研究的重要性在于确定阿尔及利亚外国直接投资的决定因素,并在先前研究的基础上准确确定这些决定因素。我们使用回归多元模型来确定1990-2017年期间外国直接投资的重要决定因素。研究结果表明,对国内生产总值和对外经济开放都有积极而显著的影响。此外,该效应对通货膨胀和经济开放具有显著的负面影响(LNINF1LNOPNESSG)。这种影响对人口和人均国内生产总值的增长是积极的,但并不显著。一些可能影响结果并给出更好结果的变量被忽视了,这被认为是本研究的不足,可能会对未来的研究产生问题。阿尔及利亚的决策者可以从这项研究的结果中受益,以吸引最多的外国直接投资。阿尔及利亚案例的研究周期和估算模型的方法被认为是一个空白,可能会为阿尔及利亚的外国直接投资增加新的内容。
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引用次数: 0
Application of Multi-Criteria Assessment in Banking Risk Management 多准则评估在银行风险管理中的应用
IF 0.6 Pub Date : 2023-05-01 DOI: 10.2478/zireb-2023-0005
V. Ristanović, D. Primorac, M. Mikić
Abstract Banks face a number of business risks on a daily basis. Today, operational risk is dominant. The aim of this paper is to develop a decision-making system when choosing a method of operational risk management by using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (the AHP method) and the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (the FAHP method). Analytical hierarchical process is a simple efficient process in solving decision-making problems. The final decision depends on the assessment of a set of alternatives and the decision criteria. The main purpose of the process is to find appropriate solutions for defined user factors in the current competitive environment. The results obtained by the classical AHP method, as well as the FAHP method, show that external factors are the dominant criterion, especially during the financial crisis or the Covid19 pandemic, and that solutions should be sought in international standards, using control tools created by the banks themselves.
摘要银行每天都面临许多业务风险。如今,操作风险占主导地位。本文的目的是利用层次分析法和模糊层次分析法建立操作风险管理方法选择的决策系统。层次分析过程是解决决策问题的一个简单有效的过程。最终决定取决于对一系列备选方案的评估和决定标准。该过程的主要目的是为当前竞争环境中定义的用户因素找到合适的解决方案。经典AHP方法和FAHP方法获得的结果表明,外部因素是主导标准,特别是在金融危机或2019冠状病毒病疫情期间,应该使用银行自己创建的控制工具,在国际标准中寻求解决方案。
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引用次数: 1
Theory of Boundedly Rational Planned Behavior: A New Model 有限理性计划行为理论:一个新模型
IF 0.6 Pub Date : 2023-05-01 DOI: 10.2478/zireb-2023-0001
M. Ashraf
Abstract The prime intent of this article is to propose a new model in the paradigm of behavioral and business economics. To attain this objective, the study modifies a famous behavioral model of the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB), which is based on the generalized unbounded rationality of neoclassical economics in dictating actual human behavior. Based on the idea of bounded rationality expounded by Herbert A. Simon, TPB has been modified by replacing intention variable with bounded rationality as the antecedent of actual behavior. The new model has been tested collating data collected from the participants of a Microfinance Institute currently operating in Bangladesh. Data were analyzed following the procedure of structural equation modeling (SEM). The findings of the experiment show that the new model of TBRPB’s predictability is observed to be much better than TPB which may be regarded as a basic contribution to the existing body of knowledge.
摘要本文的主要目的是在行为经济学和商业经济学的范式中提出一个新的模型。为了实现这一目标,本研究修改了计划行为理论的一个著名行为模型,该模型基于新古典经济学在支配实际人类行为方面的广义无界理性。在Herbert A.Simon阐述的有限理性思想的基础上,对TPB进行了修改,将意图变量替换为有限理性作为实际行为的前提。该新模型已通过整理从孟加拉国一家小额信贷研究所参与者那里收集的数据进行了测试。按照结构方程建模(SEM)程序对数据进行分析。实验结果表明,TBRPB的可预测性的新模型比TPB要好得多,这可以被视为对现有知识体系的基本贡献。
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引用次数: 0
Predicting Financial Crises and Signal Indicators in G7 Countries 七国集团国家金融危机预测与信号指标
IF 0.6 Pub Date : 2023-05-01 DOI: 10.2478/zireb-2023-0002
Hilal Alpdoğan, Mustafa Akal, Ali Kabasakal, Şakir Görmüş
Abstract This study aims to detect financial crises and their signal indicators in G7 countries from 1990 to 2016. For this purpose, fourteen leading economic indicators supported by the economic literature were examined for signaling and the 24-month crisis window before the beginning of a crisis. Among them, successful crisis estimators were determined by the noise signal ratio. The identified crisis estimators provide essential information about the dynamics of economies and the channels of the crisis affecting them. Our findings may help policymakers determine adverse policies against crisis, avoid significant losses, and stabilize the world economy and national economies.
本研究旨在检测1990年至2016年G7国家的金融危机及其信号指标。为此,我们对经济文献支持的14个主要经济指标进行了研究,以确定危机开始前的信号和24个月的危机窗口。其中,成功的危机估计器由信噪比决定。确定的危机估计者提供了有关经济动态和影响它们的危机渠道的基本信息。我们的研究结果可以帮助决策者确定应对危机的不利政策,避免重大损失,稳定世界经济和国家经济。
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引用次数: 0
A Comparative Assessment of the Urbanization – Fertility Nexus in Most Urbanized Countries of Sub-Saharan Africa 撒哈拉以南非洲大多数城市化国家城市化-生育率关系的比较评估
IF 0.6 Pub Date : 2023-05-01 DOI: 10.2478/zireb-2023-0008
O. Jemiluyi, Leward Jeke
Abstract There is a near-consensus in the literature that urbanization is incompatible with large family size owing to factors such as high cost of urban living, opportunity cost of having children in urban centers and increasing awareness of benefits of small family size. However, a cursory glance at the data on sub-Saharan Africa cast doubt on the incompatibility of urbanization with high fertility rate. Hence, this paper investigates the urbanization-fertility nexus in the two most urbanized countries of SSA – Nigeria and South Africa. Exploiting time series data for both countries within a Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square (FMOLS) framework, the incompatibility hypothesis is refuted in both countries. Specifically, the analysis suggests that in Nigeria and South Africa, increasing degree of urbanization is positively related with fertility rate with the magnitude of the relationship being higher in Nigeria than South Africa. These findings imply that policies aimed at improving urbanization process and reducing fertility rates are crucial in both countries.
由于城市生活成本高、在城市中心生孩子的机会成本高以及人们越来越意识到小家庭的好处等因素,城市化与大家庭是不相容的,这一观点在文献中几乎是一致的。然而,粗略地看一下撒哈拉以南非洲的数据,就会对城市化与高生育率的不兼容性产生怀疑。因此,本文以非洲南部两个城市化程度最高的国家尼日利亚和南非为研究对象,探讨了城市化与生育率的关系。在完全修正的普通最小二乘(FMOLS)框架内利用两国的时间序列数据,在两国驳斥了不相容假设。具体而言,分析表明,在尼日利亚和南非,城市化程度的提高与生育率呈正相关,且尼日利亚的关系程度高于南非。这些发现表明,旨在改善城市化进程和降低生育率的政策在这两个国家都至关重要。
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引用次数: 0
Nexus between Macro Economic Variables and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Inflows in India: Evidence from Time Series Analysis 宏观经济变量与印度外商直接投资(FDI)流入的关系:来自时间序列分析的证据
IF 0.6 Pub Date : 2023-05-01 DOI: 10.2478/zireb-2023-0003
Ishfaq Hamid
Abstract India’s FDI situation is presently seeing a steady move with liberalized reforms over the recent couple of years and an alluring investment atmosphere having a beneficial outcome of the inflows. The main purpose of this study is to determine the nexus between macroeconomic variables and Foreign Direct Investment inflows in India from 1980 to 2016, applying the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) testing approach to co-integration and the Toda Yamamoto Granger Causality test to draw inferences. The empirical results reveal a long-run association between Gross Domestic Product and Foreign Direct Investment Inflows. The findings also demonstrate that the causality test validates the causal relationship between foreign direct investment and all economic variables under study, except the Exchange rate and Consumer price index. However, the Toda Yamamoto test divulges bi-directional causality between Gross Domestic Product and Foreign Direct Investment Inflows. Policy makers are essential to pushing the reform agenda in the local market to pull more FDI into the Indian economy.
近年来,随着自由化改革的推进,印度的外商直接投资形势稳步发展,投资环境诱人,对外资流入产生了有益的影响。本研究的主要目的是确定宏观经济变量与1980 - 2016年印度外国直接投资流入之间的关系,采用协整的自回归分布滞后(ARDL)检验方法和Toda Yamamoto Granger因果检验来得出推论。实证结果揭示了国内生产总值与外国直接投资流入之间的长期关联。研究结果还表明,因果关系检验验证了外商直接投资与除汇率和消费者价格指数外的所有经济变量之间的因果关系。然而,Toda Yamamoto检验揭示了国内生产总值与外国直接投资流入之间的双向因果关系。政策制定者在推动当地市场改革议程、吸引更多外国直接投资进入印度经济方面至关重要。
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引用次数: 0
The Triangle, Numeral 3, and the Trinity 三角,三号,还有三位一体
IF 0.6 Pub Date : 2023-05-01 DOI: 10.2478/zireb-2023-0010
Soumitra Sharma
Abstract In history of human civilisation, throughout the world, the power of a triangle, numeral 3 or the trinity is widely visible. These concepts have been used inter-changeably in different fields of science, philosophy, and religion. The presence of these concepts in socio-economic sphere can also be proved. Following is an analysis of these concepts in mentioned fields.
在人类文明史上,在世界各地,三角形、数字3或三位一体的力量是随处可见的。这些概念在科学、哲学和宗教的不同领域中交替使用。这些概念在社会经济领域的存在也可以得到证明。以下是对上述领域中这些概念的分析。
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引用次数: 0
The Psychosocial Aspect of Large-Scale Crises: Building Resilient Communities 大规模危机的社会心理方面:建立有弹性的社区
IF 0.6 Pub Date : 2023-05-01 DOI: 10.2478/zireb-2023-0007
Davor Labaš, Tihana Leder
Abstract In large-scale crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic, it often happens that various accompanying crises occur in addition to the initial crisis. One of the most frequent ones is the so-called psychosocial crisis. The purpose of this paper is to draw out proposals towards more efficient management of large-scale crises by creating resilient communities. Based on the analysis it was concluded that psychological and social aspects are closely intertwined and interdependent. Main conclusions on how the psychosocial effects of large-scale crises could better be directed towards more resilient communities are by normalizing seeking psychosocial support and systematizing the processes of providing it, working towards healthier social environment through social innovations and by encouraging global cooperation. If more extensive changes are made towards listed proposals, further research could address whether these changes have affected community levels of resilience and better preparedness for coping with the psychosocial effects of future large-scale crises.
在COVID-19大流行等大规模危机中,除了初始危机之外,还经常发生各种伴随危机。其中最常见的是所谓的心理危机。本文的目的是通过创建有弹性的社区,提出更有效地管理大规模危机的建议。根据分析得出的结论是,心理和社会方面是密切交织和相互依存的。关于如何更好地将大规模危机的社会心理影响导向更有复原力的社区的主要结论是,使寻求社会心理支持正常化并使提供这种支持的过程系统化,通过社会创新努力创造更健康的社会环境,并鼓励全球合作。如果对所列建议进行更广泛的改变,进一步的研究可以解决这些变化是否影响了社区的恢复力水平和更好地准备应对未来大规模危机的社会心理影响。
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引用次数: 0
A Spillover Effect of Human Capital on Gross Capital Formation: A Quantile Regression Approach 人力资本对总资本形成的溢出效应:一种分位数回归方法
IF 0.6 Pub Date : 2023-05-01 DOI: 10.2478/zireb-2023-0004
Onur Özdemir
Abstract The major aim of this paper is to examine the extent to which human capital spillover effects are responsive to different quantiles of gross capital formation across selected 19 OECD countries for the period 1980-2017. We develop an endogenous model for estimating the spillover effects on investment regarding the bargaining power of workers. In this sense, different quantile regression models are applied to analyze this miscellaneous linkage and to correct possible diagnostic problems stemming from the endogenous regressors. The empirical results suggest that there are statistically significant spillover effects of human capital on investment level due to a change in the degree of threat option of capital and thereby a decrease in bargaining power of labor. Moreover, the findings reveal the fact that there is significant heterogeneity of human capital spillovers across different quantiles, which means that lowest quartile of investment activities are confronted with higher value of spillovers.
摘要本文的主要目的是研究1980-2017年期间,选定的19个经合组织国家的人力资本溢出效应对总资本形成的不同分位数的响应程度。我们开发了一个内生模型来估计工人议价能力对投资的溢出效应。从这个意义上说,不同的分位数回归模型被应用于分析这种混杂的联系,并纠正由内生回归因子引起的可能的诊断问题。实证结果表明,由于资本威胁选择程度的变化,劳动力议价能力的降低,人力资本对投资水平的溢出效应具有统计学意义。此外,研究结果表明,不同分位数的人力资本溢出具有显著的异质性,这意味着最低分位数的投资活动面临着更高的溢出价值。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Zagreb International Review of Economics & Business
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