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Application of time series models for heating degree day forecasting 时间序列模型在供暖日度预测中的应用
IF 2.1 Q3 MANAGEMENT Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.2478/otmcj-2020-0009
Merve Kuru, G. Calis
Abstract This study aims at constructing short-term forecast models by analyzing the patterns of the heating degree day (HDD). In this context, two different time series analyses, namely the decomposition and Box–Jenkins methods, were conducted. The monthly HDD data in France between 1974 and 2017 were used for analyses. The multiplicative model and 79 SARIMA models were constructed by the decomposition and Box–Jenkins method, respectively. The performance of the SARIMA models was assessed by the adjusted R2 value, residual sum of squares, the Akaike Information Criteria, the Schwarz Information Criteria, and the analysis of the residuals. Moreover, the mean absolute percentage error, mean absolute deviation, and mean squared deviation values were calculated to evaluate the performance of both methods. The results show that the decomposition method yields more acceptable forecasts than the Box–Jenkins method for supporting short-term forecasting of the HDD.
摘要:本研究旨在通过分析供热日数(HDD)的变化规律,建立短期预报模型。在这种情况下,进行了两种不同的时间序列分析,即分解和Box-Jenkins方法。使用法国1974年至2017年的月度硬盘数据进行分析。分别采用分解和Box-Jenkins方法构建乘法模型和79个SARIMA模型。通过调整后的R2值、残差平方和、Akaike信息标准、Schwarz信息标准和残差分析来评价SARIMA模型的性能。此外,计算了平均绝对百分比误差、平均绝对偏差和均方差值,以评估两种方法的性能。结果表明,对于支持HDD的短期预测,分解方法比Box-Jenkins方法产生更可接受的预测。
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引用次数: 2
Detecting unbalanced bids via an improved grading-based model 通过改进的基于评分的模型检测不平衡投标
IF 2.1 Q3 MANAGEMENT Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.2478/otmcj-2020-0004
Gul Polat, Harun Turkoglu, Atilla Damci, Firat Akin
Abstract Unbalanced bidding, also known as skewed bidding, is the process of increasing and/or decreasing the prices of various bid items without altering the total offered bid price. Bids can be unbalanced either mathematically (front-end loading) or materially (quantity error exploitation). Owners should be very careful when evaluating the tenders as awarding a contract to an unbalanced bid may result in severe cost overruns because the prices of those items do not reflect their true costs and markup allocations. Unbalanced bidding is still a contentious issue in the construction industry. While some researchers consider it as a legal bidding strategy in such a fierce competitive business environment, others view it as an unethical practice and claim that unbalanced bids should be disqualified. Studies regarding unbalanced bidding can be categorized into two groups: (1) the ones focusing on detecting or preventing this practice to help owners; and 2) the ones focusing on optimizing unbalanced bidding to help contractors. This study aims to develop a model, which consists of eight grading systems, to assist owners in detecting materially unbalanced bids. The proposed model is the improved version of the previous model, which was composed of five grading systems. In order to demonstrate how this grading-based model can be used by owners, an illustrative example is presented. It was found that owners can easily and successfully detect unbalanced bids via the proposed model.
摘要不平衡投标,也称为偏斜投标,是在不改变投标总价的情况下提高和/或降低各种投标项目的价格的过程。投标可能在数学上(前端加载)或物质上(数量误差利用)不平衡。业主在评估标书时应非常小心,因为将合同授予不平衡的标书可能会导致严重的成本超支,因为这些项目的价格不能反映其真实的成本和加价分配。不平衡投标在建筑行业仍然是一个有争议的问题。虽然一些研究人员认为,在竞争如此激烈的商业环境中,这是一种合法的投标策略,但其他人则认为这是不道德的做法,并声称不平衡的投标应该被取消资格。关于不平衡投标的研究可以分为两类:(1)侧重于发现或防止这种做法以帮助业主的研究;以及2)侧重于优化不平衡投标以帮助承包商的投标。本研究旨在开发一个由八个评分系统组成的模型,以帮助业主发现实质上不平衡的投标。所提出的模型是先前模型的改进版本,该模型由五个评分系统组成。为了演示业主如何使用这种基于分级的模型,给出了一个示例。研究发现,业主可以通过所提出的模型轻松成功地检测到不平衡的投标。
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引用次数: 3
Symbiosis of life-cycle structural design and asset management based on Building Information Modeling: Application for industrial facility equipment 基于建筑信息建模的生命周期结构设计与资产管理共生——在工业设施设备中的应用
IF 2.1 Q3 MANAGEMENT Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.2478/otmcj-2020-0013
L. Lenz, Kai Weist, M. Hoepfner, P. Spyridis, M. Gralla
Abstract In the last few years, particular focus has been devoted to the life cycle performance of fastening systems, which is reflected in increasing numbers of publications, standards and large-scale research efforts. Simultaneously, experience shows that in many cases, where fastening systems are implemented – such as industrial facilities – the design of fasteners is governed by fatigue loading under dynamic characteristics. In order to perform an adequate design and to specify the most efficient and appropriate fastening product, the engineer needs to access and process a broad range of technical and commercial information. Building information modelling (BIM), as a data management method in the construction industry, can supply such information and accommodate a comprehensive design and specification process. Furthermore, the application of BIM-based processes, such as the generation of a BIM-model, allows to use the important information for the construction as well as the life cycle management with different actions and time dependencies of the asset and its components. As a consequence, the BIM model offers the potential to correlate different data relevant for achieving the goals of the respective application, in order to ensure a more effective and correct design of the fastening. This paper demonstrates such a BIM-based design framework for an Industry 4.0 case, and in particular, the installation of a factory robot through post-installed anchors under fatigue-relevant loading in concrete.
摘要在过去的几年里,人们特别关注紧固系统的生命周期性能,这反映在越来越多的出版物、标准和大规模的研究工作中。同时,经验表明,在许多情况下,在实施紧固系统的情况下,如工业设施,紧固件的设计受动态特性下的疲劳载荷控制。为了进行充分的设计并指定最有效和最合适的紧固产品,工程师需要获取和处理广泛的技术和商业信息。建筑信息建模(BIM)作为建筑行业的一种数据管理方法,可以提供此类信息,并适应全面的设计和规范过程。此外,基于BIM的过程的应用,如BIM模型的生成,允许使用重要信息进行施工以及生命周期管理,并具有资产及其组件的不同动作和时间依赖性。因此,BIM模型提供了将与实现相应应用目标相关的不同数据关联起来的潜力,以确保紧固件的设计更加有效和正确。本文为工业4.0案例演示了这样一个基于BIM的设计框架,特别是在混凝土中的疲劳相关载荷下,通过后安装的锚固件安装工厂机器人。
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引用次数: 1
Improving competences of engineers and workers in the AEC industry for delivering NZEBs 提高AEC行业工程师和工人交付NZEB的能力
IF 2.1 Q3 MANAGEMENT Pub Date : 2019-09-05 DOI: 10.2478/otmcj-2020-0021
Sanjin Gumbarević, B. Milovanović, M. Bagaric, Mergim Gaši, Ivana Burcar Dunović
Abstract The energy performance of buildings directive requires from the European Union Member States to ensure that by 31 December 2020 all new buildings are nearly zero-energy buildings (NZEBs) and after 31 December 2018, new buildings occupied/owned by the public authorities should also have the NZEB performance. The large-scale deployment of NZEBs represents a challenge for all the stakeholders involved in the construction sector, where the lack of adequate competences is identified as one of the main obstacles. This article aims to provide a solution to overcome the deficient competences related to NZEB to increase them by using roadmaps derived from Horizon projects – Fit-to-NZEB and Net-UBIEP. Fit-to-NZEB aims to increase the knowledge of architecture, engineering and construction engineers and workers in deep energy retrofit through the education in European qualifications framework levels 3–7, while Net-UBIEP seeks to develop the schemes for using building information modelling (BIM) throughout the whole building life cycle to increase energy performance. The results from both projects show that it is inevitable to act soon to make the energy efficiency targets possible to fulfil. The integrated design process and strengthen control on the construction site should be carried out perfectly as they are the most critical parts in delivering NZEBs and all this managed by BIM to minimise information loss and to improve the design of details. To achieve this, professional competences of all the stakeholders in delivering NZEBs must be improved which could be done by implementing the knowledge from these projects.
摘要《建筑能源性能指令》要求欧盟成员国确保在2020年12月31日之前,所有新建筑都是几乎零能源建筑(NZEB),而在2018年12月30日之后,公共当局占用/拥有的新建筑也应具有NZEB性能。NZEB的大规模部署对建筑行业的所有利益相关者来说都是一个挑战,缺乏足够的能力被认为是建筑行业的主要障碍之一。本文旨在提供一种解决方案,通过使用Horizon项目的路线图——适合NZEB和净UBIEP,克服与NZEB相关的能力不足,以提高这些能力。Fit to NZEB旨在通过欧洲资格框架第3-7级的教育,提高建筑、工程和施工工程师和工人在深度能源改造方面的知识,而Net UBIEP则致力于开发在整个建筑生命周期中使用建筑信息建模(BIM)的方案,以提高能源性能。这两个项目的结果表明,必须尽快采取行动,使能源效率目标能够实现。综合设计过程和加强施工现场控制应完美实施,因为它们是交付NZEB的最关键部分,所有这些都由BIM管理,以最大限度地减少信息损失并改进细节设计。为了实现这一点,必须提高所有利益相关者在提供NZEB方面的专业能力,这可以通过实施这些项目的知识来实现。
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引用次数: 2
Overview of construction simulation approaches to model construction processes 构建施工过程模型的施工模拟方法综述
IF 2.1 Q3 MANAGEMENT Pub Date : 2019-03-01 DOI: 10.2478/otmcj-2018-0018
O. Bokor, L. Florez, A. Osborne, Barry J. Gledson
Abstract Construction simulation is a versatile technique with numerous applications. The basic simulation methods are discrete-event simulation (DES), agent-based modeling (ABM), and system dynamics (SD). Depending on the complexity of the problem, using a basic simulation method might not be enough to model construction works appropriately; hybrid approaches are needed. These are combinations of basic methods, or pairings with other techniques, such as fuzzy logic (FL) and neural networks (NNs). This paper presents a framework for applying simulation for problems within the field of construction. It describes DES, SD, and ABM, in addition to presenting how hybrid approaches are most useful in being able to reflect the dynamic nature of construction processes and capture complicated behavior, uncertainties, and dependencies. The examples show the application of the framework for masonry works and how it could be used for obtaining better productivity estimates. Several structures of hybrid simulation are presented alongside their inputs, outputs, and interaction points, which provide a practical reference for researchers on how to implement simulation to model construction systems of labor-intensive activities and lays the groundwork for applications in other construction-related activities.
摘要施工模拟是一种具有多种应用的通用技术。基本的仿真方法有离散事件仿真(DES)、基于代理的建模(ABM)和系统动力学(SD)。根据问题的复杂性,使用基本的模拟方法可能不足以对建筑工程进行适当的建模;需要混合方法。这些是基本方法的组合,或与其他技术的配对,如模糊逻辑(FL)和神经网络(NN)。本文提出了一个将模拟应用于建筑领域问题的框架。它描述了DES、SD和ABM,此外还介绍了混合方法如何在反映施工过程的动态性质和捕捉复杂行为、不确定性和依赖性方面最有用。实例显示了该框架在砌体工程中的应用,以及如何使用该框架来获得更好的生产力估计。介绍了混合模拟的几种结构及其输入、输出和交互点,为研究人员如何实现模拟以模拟劳动密集型活动的建筑系统提供了实际参考,并为在其他建筑相关活动中的应用奠定了基础。
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引用次数: 19
Identifying New Knowledge Areas to Strengthen the Project Management Institute (PMI) Framework 确定新的知识领域以加强项目管理协会(PMI)框架
IF 2.1 Q3 MANAGEMENT Pub Date : 2019-03-01 DOI: 10.2478/otmcj-2018-0014
C. Iyer, P. Banerjee
Abstract In an increasingly volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous (VUCA) world, managers of capital projects are under relentless pressure to consistently meet their performance expectations. At the execution stage, managers have to constantly orchestrate competing demands on scare resources and, simultaneously, manage project operations to meet time, costs and quality compliances. This calls for simple methods to distinguish factors that could cause execution stage delays and prioritise their remedial actions. The objective, therefore, was to propose and test a methodology through empirical evidence, which could be useful for managers to focus on the distinguishing factors (rather than on all factors) to achieve execution excellence. We used a three-stage methodology leveraging the existing Project Management Institute (PMI) framework to define variables and then tested the methodology using case data generated from projects adopting a grounded theory approach. A set-theoretic, multi-value qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) tool helped appropriately configure this empirical case data and a subsequent Boolean minimisation technique then identified the distinguishing factor(s) that explained superior project schedule performance. The results corroborated literature findings. Two contributions emerged from this study: (a) our methodology enabled a richer analysis of the case than what would have been possible by adopting a more conventional approach; and (b) there is a potential for a domain-specific extension of the PMI framework to cover technology transfer projects having their unique knowledge areas.
摘要在一个日益动荡、不确定、复杂和模糊的世界(VUCA)中,资本项目经理面临着持续满足其业绩预期的无情压力。在执行阶段,管理者必须不断协调对稀缺资源的竞争需求,同时管理项目运营,以满足时间、成本和质量要求。这就需要简单的方法来区分可能导致执行阶段延迟的因素,并优先考虑其补救措施。因此,目标是通过经验证据提出并测试一种方法,这可能有助于管理人员关注区别因素(而不是所有因素),以实现卓越的执行。我们使用了一种三阶段方法,利用现有的项目管理研究所(PMI)框架来定义变量,然后使用采用扎根理论方法的项目产生的案例数据来测试该方法。集合论、多值定性比较分析(QCA)工具有助于适当配置该经验案例数据,随后的布尔最小化技术确定了解释卓越项目进度表现的区别因素。结果证实了文献的发现。这项研究得出了两个贡献:(a)与采用更传统的方法相比,我们的方法能够对案件进行更丰富的分析;以及(b)有可能对采购经理人指数框架进行特定领域的扩展,以涵盖具有其独特知识领域的技术转让项目。
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引用次数: 2
Enhancing the performance of architectural design firms through addressing the gap of workforce skills in developing countries: a good-to-great approach 通过解决发展中国家劳动力技能差距来提高建筑设计公司的绩效:从优秀到卓越的方法
IF 2.1 Q3 MANAGEMENT Pub Date : 2019-03-01 DOI: 10.2478/otmcj-2018-0016
A. Othman, Dana Ashraf Sokkar
Abstract The aim of this research is to investigate the role of the good-to-great concept as an approach for enhancing the performance of architectural design firms (ADFs) through addressing the gap of workforce skills in developing countries. To achieve this aim, a research methodology was designed to accomplish four objectives: (1) building a comprehensive background about the topic through covering the nature of the construction industry, gap of workforce skills, previous approaches used to address this issue and the good-to-great concept; (2) presenting and analyzing two case studies to investigate the role of the good-to-great concept as an approach to fill the gap of workforce skills in organizations; (3) investigating the perception and application of the good-to-great concept for addressing the gap of workforce skills to enhance the performance of ADFs and (4) developing a framework to enhance the performance of ADFs through bridging the gap of workforce skills in ADFs using the good-to-great concept. Findings of this research showed that the issue of gap of workforce skills threatens all types of industries including construction industry. The demand of ADFs became greater than the supply of skilled employees which indicates a critical issue encountered by these firms. Thus, the good-to-great concept that has never been adopted in ADFs before is proposed as a novel approach to tackle this issue.
摘要本研究的目的是调查良好到伟大的概念作为一种通过解决发展中国家劳动力技能差距来提高建筑设计公司绩效的方法的作用。为了实现这一目标,设计了一种研究方法来实现四个目标:(1)通过涵盖建筑业的性质、劳动力技能差距、以前用于解决这一问题的方法以及从好到好的概念,建立关于这一主题的全面背景;(2) 介绍并分析两个案例研究,以调查良好到伟大概念作为填补组织中劳动力技能缺口的方法的作用;(3) 研究对“从好到好”概念的理解和应用,以解决劳动力技能差距,从而提高民主力量同盟的绩效;(4)制定一个框架,通过使用“从好至好”概念弥合民主力量同盟中劳动力技能差距来提高民主力量联盟的绩效。这项研究的结果表明,劳动力技能差距问题威胁到包括建筑业在内的所有类型的行业。ADF的需求大于熟练员工的供应,这表明这些公司遇到了一个关键问题。因此,ADF从未采用过“从好到伟大”的概念,作为解决这一问题的一种新方法。
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引用次数: 1
Evaluation of workplace safety performance in the Chinese petroleum industry 中国石油工业工作场所安全绩效评价
IF 2.1 Q3 MANAGEMENT Pub Date : 2019-03-01 DOI: 10.2478/otmcj-2018-0013
Mingxue Ma, V. Tam, Zhiyu Huang, M. Sing, Liyin Shen
Abstract Reform of the Chinese petroleum industry has entered its second phase since early 1999. The productivity of the petroleum industry has been greatly improved, while the safety performance and records are not satisfactory. This paper investigates the critical factors for improving safety performance in the Chinese petroleum industry. The data used for the analysis are from a questionnaire survey administered to 480 professionals in the petroleum industry in which 143 valid responses were received. Statistical analysis techniques are used to analyze the data collected. The findings revealed that the most significant source of the safety problem is due to the combination of several reasons, including (a) violation on operating procedures, (b) obsolete facilities and equipment failures, (c) insufficient safety management system, (d) improper commands, number of casualties, and (e) production performances and operating skills. The three most essential protective methods include safety training and increasing staff’s safety consciousness, cultivating safety culture, and enhancing equipment management and detecting hazards in time.
自1999年初以来,中国石油工业改革进入第二阶段。石油工业的生产力有了很大的提高,但安全性能和记录却不尽人意。本文探讨了提高我国石油工业安全性能的关键因素。用于分析的数据来自对石油行业480名专业人员的问卷调查,其中收到143份有效回复。统计分析技术用于分析收集到的数据。调查结果显示,造成安全问题最重要的原因是多方面的,包括:(a)违反操作规程;(b)设施和设备陈旧故障;(c)安全管理制度不健全;(d)指挥不当;伤亡人数;以及(e)生产性能和操作技能。安全培训和提高员工安全意识、培养安全文化、加强设备管理和及时发现危险是最基本的三种防护方法。
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引用次数: 1
Market value of the view restriction 市场价值的观点受到限制
IF 2.1 Q3 MANAGEMENT Pub Date : 2019-02-01 DOI: 10.2478/otmcj-2019-0002
I. Hajnal
Abstract Based on the international literature, the effect of an existing panoramic view on the market value of properties is positive and significant. This value-adding factor varies by location and by type of view. In Central Europe, no such evaluation study has been elaborated until now. New building construction may restrict the existing panorama, and this is the other side of the same phenomenon. View restriction may result in stigmatization, which is a negative effect on the property. There are two major methodologies to observe the effect: revealed preference method (RPM) and stated preference method (SPM). One SPM approach is contingent valuation (CV), wherein well-informed stakeholders give their opinion about the impact caused by the investigated effect. The CV methodology, using the Delphi approach, was employed to observe the market value decrease in the cases of several restricted panorama situations in Budapest. Based on the research, this effect in Budapest is in line with the published western results. The result of the study can be used to support real estate developers and architects in their development decisions. This is an extended version of the article titled “The impact of view-restriction: a Delphi case study from Budapest”, presented at Creative Construction Conference 2018, CCC 2017, 30 June to 3 July 2018, Ljubljana, Slovenia.
从国际文献来看,现有的全景观对房产市场价值的影响是积极而显著的。这种增值因素因位置和景观类型而异。在中欧,到目前为止还没有编制这种评价研究报告。新建筑的建造可能会限制现有的全景,这是同一现象的另一面。视野限制可能导致污名化,这是对财产的负面影响。有两种主要的方法来观察效果:显示偏好法(RPM)和陈述偏好法(SPM)。一种SPM方法是条件评估(CV),其中消息灵通的利益相关者给出他们对所调查效果造成的影响的意见。使用德尔菲法的CV方法被用来观察布达佩斯几个受限制的全景情况下的市场价值下降。根据这项研究,布达佩斯的这种效应与西方公布的结果一致。研究结果可用于支持房地产开发商和建筑师的开发决策。本文是一篇题为“视图限制的影响:来自布达佩斯的德尔福案例研究”的文章的扩展版本,该文章发表于2018年6月30日至7月3日在斯洛文尼亚卢布尔雅那举行的创意建设会议,CCC 2017。
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引用次数: 0
A Review on Using Opportunities of Augmented Reality and Virtual Reality in Construction Project Management 增强现实与虚拟现实在建设项目管理中的应用机遇综述
IF 2.1 Q3 MANAGEMENT Pub Date : 2019-02-01 DOI: 10.2478/otmcj-2018-0012
Shakil Ahmed
Abstract Augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR), a kingdom-of-the-art technology for superimposing information onto the real world, have recently started to have an effect on our everyday lives. In addition, AR and VR have shown a great contribution to advanced construction management in recent years. However, a comprehensive critical review of AR and VR technologies in construction management is absent in the literature. This study provides a comprehensive review of a summary of using potential opportunities of AR and VR to solve a variety of construction management issues effectively and efficiently. This study found that AR is successfully used in construction project scheduling, progress tracking, worker training, safety management, time and cost management, and quality and defects management. VR is effectively used as a visualization tool, worker training technology, safety management tool, and quality and defects management tool. In addition, AR and VR are used for developing a network that allows the possibility of having conferences with those who are geographically far off from each other or the construction site. This study could help to explore the potential fields of using AR and VR technologies in the construction industry effectively as advance time- and cost-saving profitable tools.
摘要增强现实(AR)和虚拟现实(VR),一种将信息叠加到现实世界上的艺术技术王国,最近开始对我们的日常生活产生影响。此外,近年来,AR和VR对先进的施工管理做出了巨大贡献。然而,文献中缺乏对AR和VR技术在施工管理中的全面批判性综述。本研究全面回顾了利用AR和VR的潜在机会有效解决各种施工管理问题的总结。本研究发现,AR已成功应用于施工项目调度、进度跟踪、工人培训、安全管理、时间和成本管理以及质量和缺陷管理。VR被有效地用作可视化工具、工人培训技术、安全管理工具以及质量和缺陷管理工具。此外,AR和VR用于开发一个网络,该网络允许与地理位置相距遥远的人或建筑工地举行会议。这项研究有助于探索在建筑行业有效使用AR和VR技术作为提前节省时间和成本的盈利工具的潜在领域。
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引用次数: 109
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Organization Technology and Management in Construction
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