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Interval Estimation of the Stress-Strength Reliability in Lehmann Family of Distributions 莱曼分布系列中应力强度可靠性的区间估算
IF 0.8 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2023-12-26 DOI: 10.13052/jrss0974-8024.1622
Sanju Scaria, Sibil Jose, Seemon Thomas
This paper presents a unified approach for computing confidence limits for stress–strength reliability when strength and stress are independent random variables following a distribution in Lehmann family. The generalized confidence interval and the bootstrap confidence intervals are obtained. Simulation studies are conducted to assess the performance of the proposed methods in terms of the estimated coverage probabilities and the length of the confidence intervals. An example is also provided for illustration.
本文提出了一种计算应力-强度可靠性置信区间的统一方法,当强度和应力都是独立随机变量,服从 Lehmann 族分布时。该方法获得了广义置信区间和自举置信区间。通过模拟研究评估了所提方法在估计覆盖概率和置信区间长度方面的性能。此外,还提供了一个示例进行说明。
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引用次数: 0
Parameters Estimation of the Exponentiated Chen Distribution Based on Upper Record Values 基于最高记录值的陈氏指数分布参数估计
IF 0.8 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2023-12-11 DOI: 10.13052/jrss0974-8024.16110
Farhad Yousaf, Sajid Ali, Ismail Shah, Saba Riaz
This article discusses the Bayesian and frequentist inferences for the exponentiated Chen distribution assuming upper record values. Due to unavailability of the compact form of marginal posterior distributions, a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm is designed to compute the posterior summaries. Prediction of future record values under Bayesian and frequentist methods is also discussed mathematically and numerically. Further, a sensitivity analysis to assess the effect of prior on the estimated parameters is also a part of this study. Besides the simulation studies, the importance of the present study is illustrated with the help of a real data example. It is noted that the Bayes estimates outperform the frequentist inference.
本文讨论了假设上记录值的指数化陈分布的贝叶斯推论和频数推论。由于无法获得边际后验分布的紧凑形式,本文设计了一种马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛算法来计算后验摘要。此外,还对贝叶斯法和频数法预测未来记录值进行了数学和数值讨论。此外,本研究还进行了敏感性分析,以评估先验值对估计参数的影响。除了模拟研究外,本研究还借助一个真实数据实例来说明其重要性。结果表明,贝叶斯估计优于频数推断。
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引用次数: 0
The Predicted Failure on A Two-Dimensional Warranty Using the Bayesian Approach 使用贝叶斯方法预测二维保修期内的故障
IF 0.8 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2023-11-29 DOI: 10.13052/jrss0974-8024.1619
Valeriana Lukitosari, S. D. Surjanto, Sena Safarina, Komar Baihaqi, Sri Irna Solihatun Ummah
Traditionally, the warranty cost is assumed to be the cost of repairs based on the average cost that arises from a damage claim. Several studies have considered the Least Square and Maximum Likelihood Estimation methods in estimating the parameters of the failure distribution. However, this study uses the Bayesian method using the posterior distribution obtained from the prior distribution and the likelihood function. The Bayesian approach is more optimal to use in estimating parameters because it has the smallest value of Aikaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) compared to other methods. Failure expectations that are close to natural can be used to analyze survival to determine how long a product will last before the failure. The numerical example in this study, is the type of motorcycle with an engine capacity of 125 CC with the Weibull distribution, while the 150 CC and 160 CC with Exponential distribution. The novelty in this study is that the free repair approach in two-dimensional can be anticipated with failure considering the dimensions of age and mileage.
传统上,保修成本被假定为基于损坏索赔产生的平均成本的维修成本。一些研究在估算故障分布参数时考虑了最小二乘法和最大似然估计法。然而,本研究采用贝叶斯方法,使用从先验分布和似然函数得到的后验分布。与其他方法相比,贝叶斯方法的艾凯克信息准则(AIC)值最小,因此更适合用于估计参数。接近自然的失效预期可用于分析存活率,以确定产品在失效前还能使用多长时间。本研究中的数字示例是发动机排量为 125 CC 的摩托车,采用 Weibull 分布,而 150 CC 和 160 CC 采用指数分布。本研究的新颖之处在于,二维自由修复法可以在考虑车龄和里程的情况下预测故障。
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引用次数: 0
An Effective Approach for Solving Multi-objective Transportation Problem 解决多目标交通问题的有效方法
IF 0.8 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2023-11-29 DOI: 10.13052/jrss0974-8024.1618
Lakhveer Kaur, Sukhveer Singh, Ashok Singh Bhandari, Sandeep Singh, M. Ram
In this present study, a transportation problem is considered such that the total cost and time of transportation are minimized without taking into account their priorities. In literature, there are less techniques available for finding the efficient solutions of multi-objective transportation problem. So, we developed a heuristic algorithm to find most efficient solution of multi-objective transportation problem, which gives efficient solution with minimum difference from ideal solution. Firstly, we aim at formulating a multi-objective transportation problems along with a novel algorithm to find efficient solutions. The proposed algorithm gives optimal solution faster in comparison to other available techniques in literature for the given multi-objective transportation problem. Moreover, it avoids the degeneracy as well as requires low computational effort. Furthermore, an illustrative example is provided to show the feasibility and applicability of the proposed approach and compare the results with the existing approaches to show the effectiveness of it.
在本研究中,考虑的是一个运输问题,即在不考虑运输总成本和时间优先级的情况下,使其最小化。在文献中,找到多目标运输问题有效解决方案的技术较少。因此,我们开发了一种启发式算法来寻找多目标运输问题的最有效解,它能给出与理想解差异最小的有效解。首先,我们旨在提出一个多目标运输问题,同时提出一种新的算法来寻找有效的解决方案。对于给定的多目标运输问题,与文献中的其他现有技术相比,所提出的算法能更快地给出最优解。此外,该算法还避免了退化问题,而且计算量小。此外,还提供了一个示例来说明所提方法的可行性和适用性,并将结果与现有方法进行比较,以显示其有效性。
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引用次数: 0
Heuristical Approach for Optimizing Population Mean Using Ratio Estimator in Stratified Random Sampling 在分层随机抽样中使用比率估计器优化人口平均值的启发式方法
IF 0.8 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2023-11-20 DOI: 10.13052/jrss0974-8024.1617
G. Triveni, Faizan Danish
In this study, we have developed a Ratio type estimator in Stratified sampling to estimate the population average of study variable by using the information of a concomitant variable. By utilizing Taylor’s series, we have derived the expressions for Bias and MSE upto first degree of approximation. In numerical illustration, employing a real data set, we have demonstrated that the proposed estimator has highest Percentage relative efficiency when compared to the considered existing estimatrs. Furthermore, we have demonstrated that Separate ratio type estimators have the highest relative efficiency when contrasted with the Combined ratio type estimators.
在本研究中,我们开发了一种分层抽样中的比率型估计器,利用伴随变量的信息来估计研究变量的人口平均值。通过使用泰勒级数,我们推导出了偏差和 MSE 的表达式,直至一级近似值。通过使用真实数据集进行数值说明,我们证明了与现有的估计方法相比,所提出的估计方法具有最高的百分比相对效率。此外,我们还证明,与组合比率型估计器相比,分离比率型估计器具有最高的相对效率。
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引用次数: 0
Managing Carbon Foot Prints in Supply Chain for Imperfect Quality Items 不完美产品供应链碳足迹管理
Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2023-09-14 DOI: 10.13052/jrss0974-8024.1616
Sahil Bhardwaj, Mandeep Mittal, Riju Chaudhary
Producing 100% high-quality items is a challenging task in today’s era, which often results in the delivery of defective products. Therefore, inspecting the lot becomes a necessity. This paper investigates the impact of environmental concerns on the inventory model by incorporating fuel costs and emission taxes. The objective of the study is to minimize the expected total cost and determine the optimal order quantity. The study includes a numerical example with sensitivity analysis to determine the model’s robustness. The findings of the study indicate that minimizing emissions also reduces the expected total cost. The paper highlights the significance of considering environmental concerns in inventory management. The study highlights the importance of addressing environmental issues in inventory management and provides a framework for minimizing costs while considering the impact on the environment.
在当今时代,生产100%高质量的产品是一项具有挑战性的任务,这往往导致交付的产品有缺陷。因此,检查批次成为必要。本文通过纳入燃料成本和排放税来研究环境问题对库存模型的影响。研究的目标是使期望总成本最小,并确定最优订货量。研究包括一个数值算例,并进行灵敏度分析以确定模型的鲁棒性。研究结果表明,最小化排放也会降低预期总成本。本文强调了在库存管理中考虑环境问题的重要性。这项研究强调了在库存管理中处理环境问题的重要性,并提供了一个在考虑对环境的影响的同时尽量减少成本的框架。
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引用次数: 0
Cost Optimization and Reliability Parameter Extraction of a Complex Engineering System 复杂工程系统的成本优化与可靠性参数提取
IF 0.8 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2023-07-27 DOI: 10.13052/jrss0974-8024.1615
Anuj Kumar, Sangeeta Pant, M. Ram
Nowadays, the transformation of the various energy system is the core objective of the dedicated sustainable development goal related to energy sustainable world within the new United Nations development agenda. Different nuclear regulatory authorities around the globe, sets Technical Specifications (TSs) for ensuring the human and environmental safety of various highly volatile and complex Nuclear Power Generation Plants (NPGPs). TSs define numerous measures and limitations related to safety and sustainability that must be followed by all NPGPs around the world. Reliability, availability and cost components associated with a NPGPs form important bases for the setting of TSs. In this work, a framework based on few recent metaheuristics like Cuckoo Search Algorithm (CSA), Grey Wolf Optimizer (GWO), Hybrid PSO GWO algorithm (HPSOGWO) has been presented for cost optimization and reliability parameter extraction of a complex engineering system named Heat Removal System (HRS) of a nuclear power generation plant safety system (NPGPSS). A multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) method named Weighted-Sum Method (WSM) has also been employed for prioritizing the available metaheuristics based on available beneficial and non-beneficial criteria’s.
如今,各种能源系统的转型是联合国新发展议程中与能源可持续世界有关的专门可持续发展目标的核心目标。全球不同的核监管机构制定了技术规范(TS),以确保各种高度挥发性和复杂的核电站(NPGP)的人类和环境安全。TS定义了许多与安全和可持续性相关的措施和限制,全世界所有NPGP都必须遵守这些措施和限制。与NPGP相关的可靠性、可用性和成本构成了TS设置的重要基础。在这项工作中,基于杜鹃搜索算法(CSA)、灰狼优化算法(GWO)、混合PSO-GWO算法(HPSOGWO)等最近的元启发式算法,提出了一个框架,用于核电站安全系统(NPGPSS)的复杂工程系统的成本优化和可靠性参数提取。一种名为加权和法(WSM)的多准则决策(MCDM)方法也已被用于基于可用的有益和非有益准则对可用的元启发式算法进行优先级排序。
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引用次数: 1
System Reliability Analysis of Large Capacity Electric Mining Trucks Used in Coal Mining 煤矿用大容量矿用电动卡车系统可靠性分析
IF 0.8 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2023-07-11 DOI: 10.13052/jrss0974-8024.1614
Sedat Toraman
In today’s world where competition is increasing, the focus of all efforts on meeting production targets at the lowest possible cost has increased the need for maximum benefit from existing machinery/equipment. In this context, availability, reliability and maintainability analysis have become the basic tools to be used in meeting this need.In this study, reliability, maintainability and availability values were determined using the operation and repair data (2019) of large capacity electric trucks used in the Manisa-Soma coal field. First of all, each truck was analyzed and then the analysis of the entire truck system was performed. In this context, RAM analysis of all trucks was performed and then the general reliability of the entire truck system was calculated by considering the working order in the enterprise. According to this; The truck with the highest reliability is the truck with door number 555 and the reliability rate is 77.04%, and the truck with the lowest reliability is the truck number 556 with a rate of 26.31%. As a result of the maintainability analysis, the truck with the 553 door number had the highest maintainability with a rate of 73.52%. The truck numbered 549 has the lowest maintainability rate with a rate of 42.21%. As a result of the system analysis, the reliability rate was determined as 24% in R (1000) minutes, 59% in R (500) minutes and 83% in R (250) minutes.
在竞争日益激烈的当今世界,所有努力都集中在以尽可能低的成本实现生产目标上,这增加了从现有机械/设备中获得最大利益的需求。在这种情况下,可用性、可靠性和可维护性分析已成为满足这一需求的基本工具。在本研究中,使用Manisa Soma煤田使用的大容量电动卡车的运行和维修数据(2019年)确定了可靠性、可维护性和可用性值。首先,对每辆卡车进行分析,然后对整个卡车系统进行分析。在这种情况下,对所有卡车进行了RAM分析,然后通过考虑企业中的工作顺序来计算整个卡车系统的总体可靠性。据此;可靠性最高的卡车是门编号为555的卡车,其可靠性为77.04%,可靠性最低的卡车是编号为556的卡车,可靠性为26.31%,门号为553的卡车的可维护性最高,为73.52%。门号为549的卡车可维护性最低,为42.21%。系统分析结果表明,可靠性在R(1000)分钟为24%,在R(500)分钟为59%和在R(250)分钟为83%。
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引用次数: 1
On a Statistical Model Useful for Demographics: Estimating the Mean Number of Children Ever Born Through the Distribution of Male Births with an Application to Data from India 关于一个对人口统计有用的统计模型:通过男性出生率分布估计平均出生儿童数——应用于印度的数据
IF 0.8 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2023-06-21 DOI: 10.13052/jrss0974-8024.1613
Shubhagata Roy, Prayas Sharma, K. K. Singh, R. Srivastava
The connection between male births and fertility can be easily linked with demographic transition and in defining the population distribution. In this context, it is necessary to understand the birth patterns in Indian societies which are governed by some or the other probability distributions. Although child birth is a biological process but it is very much influenced by a number of social, economic, cultural and psychological factors. Numerous demographers have proposed mathematical models to predict the number of male and female births during a given time period taking into consideration the various factors. Traditionally, estimating current levels and future trends of mean number of births is done using various life tables, cohort-component method, time-series analysis, micro-simulations, structural modeling, expert analysis, historical error analysis and also using an appropriate probability model and testing the model on real data. In the present study we developed a model for estimating the mean number of children ever born through the join probability distribution with its application for male births among the females of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. The reasons of selecting these two states were their huge population and high total fertility rates. The model fits to the data of these two states, therefore it would be a good fit for the other states too, which shows the efficiency and applicability of the model. The applicability of this model has been illustrated on real data obtained from the National Family Health Survey-3 (2005–06). The various estimates of the parameters have been obtained by using the method of moments and suitability of the proposed model has been tested using the ‘goodness of fit’ criteria.
男性出生和生育率之间的联系可以很容易地与人口结构转型和人口分布的定义联系起来。在这种情况下,有必要了解印度社会的出生模式,这些模式受一些或其他概率分布的支配。虽然孩子的出生是一个生物学过程,但它在很大程度上受到许多社会、经济、文化和心理因素的影响。许多人口统计学家提出了数学模型,在考虑各种因素的情况下,预测给定时间段内的男性和女性出生人数。传统上,估计平均出生人数的当前水平和未来趋势是使用各种生命表、队列组成方法、时间序列分析、微观模拟、结构建模、专家分析、历史误差分析来完成的,还使用适当的概率模型并在实际数据上测试该模型。在本研究中,我们开发了一个模型,通过联合概率分布来估计平均出生儿童数,并将其应用于北方邦和比哈尔邦女性中的男性出生。选择这两个州的原因是人口众多,总生育率高。该模型适合这两个状态的数据,因此它也很适合其他状态,这表明了该模型的有效性和适用性。该模型的适用性已在第三次全国家庭健康调查(2005-2006)中获得的真实数据中得到说明。通过使用矩量法获得了参数的各种估计,并使用“拟合优度”标准测试了所提出模型的适用性。
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引用次数: 0
Reliability Structures Consisting of Weighted Components: Synopsis and New Advances 加权分量可靠性结构:综述与新进展
IF 0.8 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2023-05-17 DOI: 10.13052/jrss0974-8024.1612
I. Triantafyllou
Throughout the lines of the present article the family of reliability systems consisting of weighted components is examined. A synoptic exposition of the existing reliability structures with n weighted components is carried out. Among others, some newfangled and crucial points for every structure that belongs to this class are reported. In addition, a new weighted consecutive-type structure is introduced, while its characteristics are also studied in some detail.
在本文中,我们考察了由加权分量组成的可靠性系统族。对现有的n权重构件可靠性结构进行了概括性的阐述。其中,报告了属于该类的每个结构的一些新颖和关键点。此外,还提出了一种新的加权连续型结构,并对其特性进行了较详细的研究。
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引用次数: 2
期刊
Journal of Reliability and Statistical Studies
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