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Analysis of a Stochastic Model with Rework System 随机返工系统模型分析
IF 0.8 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2022-08-03 DOI: 10.13052/jrss0974-8024.1527
M. Ram, Ganga Negi, Nupur Goyal, Anuj Kumar
The demand in the present global industrial system, requires the challenge to meet the growing consumer capabilities and requirements constantly. So, there is always a need to improve different parameters, one of them being different types of failures involved in the working of different engineering systems related to communication systems, manufacturing goods, nuclear and hydro power plants, automobiles and many others. Human error occurring in the working of various systems has always been the challenge to the researchers and is being constantly worked upon by the researchers in the analysis and improvement of reliability and availability of different complex and multistate systems. In the present paper, there is a three-unit system consisting of the unit A with two subunits in parallel and other units B and C are connected in series with A. The authors have investigated and analysed different reliability measures like availability, MTTF and sensitivity taking into account the human failure and carrying out rework system. This research work aims at the study of reliability and availability measures of a multi-state system incorporating human error so as to increase the efficiency of industrial systems by taking maintenance and rework measures to enhance the availability factors. This would help to understand and estimate the reliability measures of any such systems in the field of telecommunication, any electronic devices like that in small power plants, robot systems and such others. Also, a comparison has been made between the availability and reliability estimates in the presence and in the absence of human error. The techniques used are Markov process, Laplace transformation and supplementary variable technique.
当前全球工业体系中的需求,要求不断满足不断增长的消费者能力和需求。因此,总是需要改进不同的参数,其中之一是与通信系统、制造业、核电站和水力发电厂、汽车和许多其他相关的不同工程系统的工作中涉及的不同类型的故障。在各种系统的工作中发生的人为错误一直是研究人员面临的挑战,研究人员在分析和提高不同复杂和多状态系统的可靠性和可用性方面不断对此进行研究。在本文中,有一个三单元系统,由具有两个并联子单元的单元a和其他单元B和C与a串联组成。考虑到人为故障和执行返工系统,作者调查和分析了不同的可靠性措施,如可用性、MTTF和灵敏度。本研究工作旨在研究包含人为错误的多状态系统的可靠性和可用性措施,通过采取维护和返工措施来提高可用性因素,从而提高工业系统的效率。这将有助于理解和估计电信领域中任何此类系统、小型发电厂中的任何电子设备、机器人系统等的可靠性措施。此外,还对存在和不存在人为错误的情况下的可用性和可靠性估计值进行了比较。所使用的技术有马尔可夫过程、拉普拉斯变换和补充变量技术。
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引用次数: 0
Classical and Bayesian Inference for the Inverse Lomax Distribution Under Adaptive Progressive Type-II Censored Data with COVID-19 新冠肺炎自适应渐进II型截尾数据下逆Lomax分布的经典和贝叶斯推理
IF 0.8 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2022-08-02 DOI: 10.13052/jrss0974-8024.1525
Rashi Hora, Naresh Chandra Kabdwal, Pulkit Srivastava
In this paper, we consider the classical and the Bayesian inferences for unknown parameters of inverse Lomax distribution and their corresponding survival characteristics under the adaptive progressive type-II censoring scheme. In the classical setup, first we obtain the maximum likelihood estimates for the unknown shape parameter of the distribution and its corresponding survival characteristics. Further, we consider symmetric and asymmetric loss functions for the estimation of shape parameter and its corresponding survival characteristics under the Bayesian paradigm. The performances of various derived estimators were recorded using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation technique for different sample sizes. Finally, a COVID-19 mortality data set is provided to illustrate the computation of various estimators.
在本文中,我们考虑了在自适应渐进II型截尾方案下,逆Lomax分布未知参数的经典和贝叶斯推断及其相应的生存特性。在经典设置中,首先我们获得分布的未知形状参数及其相应生存特性的最大似然估计。此外,我们考虑了对称和非对称损失函数,用于在贝叶斯范式下估计形状参数及其相应的生存特征。使用马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗模拟技术记录了不同样本量下各种推导估计量的性能。最后,提供了新冠肺炎死亡率数据集,以说明各种估计量的计算。
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引用次数: 0
A Model for the State of Charge of a Battery Connected to a Wind Power Plant Under a Ramp Rate Limitation Regime 斜坡速率限制下与风力发电厂连接的电池充电状态模型
IF 0.8 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2022-07-27 DOI: 10.13052/jrss0974-8024.1522
G. D’Amico, F. Gismondi, Salvatore Vergine
In this paper, the expected value of the first hitting time of a threshold of the state of charge of a battery is investigated. The model considers a battery storage system connected to a wind power plant under a ramp rate limitation scheme. The level of charge in the battery is the result of operations that are modelled by a Markov chain model with random rewards. The Markov chain and reward characteristics do depend on the considered ramp rate limitation scheme that the wind power producer has to respect in order to guarantee a quasi-stable output power to the grid. In this paper, we derive a system of integral equations for the hitting time of the state of charge of the battery and the application to real data validates the analytical results.
本文研究了电池充电状态阈值的首次命中时间的期望值。该模型考虑了在斜坡速率限制方案下连接到风力发电厂的电池存储系统。电池中的电荷水平是由具有随机奖励的马尔可夫链模型建模的操作的结果。马尔可夫链和奖励特性确实取决于所考虑的斜坡率限制方案,风电生产商必须遵守该方案,以确保向电网输出准稳定的功率。在本文中,我们导出了电池充电状态的碰撞时间的积分方程组,并将其应用于实际数据验证了分析结果。
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引用次数: 2
Statistical Inference for Multi State Systems under the Generalized Modified Weibull Class 广义修正Weibull类下多态系统的统计推断
IF 0.8 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2022-07-27 DOI: 10.13052/jrss0974-8024.1521
A. Makrides
Multi state systems can be seen as semi-Markov processes by considering an arbitrary distribution function for sojourn times. Especially, in this work, the Modified Weibull distribution is employed to be the distribution of sojourn times with a shape parameter λλ such that is member of a distributions family that is closed under minima. Parameters estimators are provided and the proposed methodology is evaluated using a detailed simulation procedure.
通过考虑逗留时间的任意分布函数,多状态系统可以看作是半马尔可夫过程。特别地,本文采用修正威布尔分布作为逗留时间的分布,其形状参数为λλ,使得逗留时间属于在极小值下闭合的分布族。提供了参数估计器,并使用详细的仿真程序对所提出的方法进行了评估。
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引用次数: 0
MMAPs to Model Complex Multi-State Systems with Vacation Policies in the Repair Facility 维修厂中具有休假策略的复杂多状态系统建模的MMAP
IF 0.8 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2022-07-27 DOI: 10.13052/jrss0974-8024.1524
J. E. Ruiz-Castro, Christian Acal
Two complex multi-state systems subject to multiple events are built in an algorithmic and computational way by considering phase-type distributions and Markovian arrival processes with marked arrivals. The internal performance of the system is composed of different degradation levels and internal repairable and non-repairable failures can occur. Also, the system is subject to external shocks that may provoke repairable or non-repairable failure. A multiple vacation policy is introduced in the system for the repairperson. Preventive maintenance is included in the system to improve the behaviour. Two types of task may be performed by the repairperson; corrective repair and preventive maintenance. The systems are modelled, the transient and stationary distributions are built and different performance measures are calculated in a matrix-algorithmic form. Cost and rewards are included in the model in a vector matrix way. Several economic measures are worked out and the net reward per unit of time is used to optimize the system. A numerical example shows that the system can be optimized according to the existence of preventive maintenance and the distribution of vacation time. The results have been implemented computationally with Matlab and R (packages: expm, optim).
通过考虑相位类型分布和具有标记到达的马尔可夫到达过程,以算法和计算的方式建立了两个受多个事件影响的复杂多状态系统。系统的内部性能由不同的退化水平组成,可能发生内部可修复和不可修复的故障。此外,系统受到外部冲击,可能引发可修复或不可修复的故障。系统中为维修人员引入了多次休假政策。系统中包括预防性维护,以改善行为。维修人员可以执行两种类型的任务;纠正性维修和预防性维护。对系统进行建模,建立瞬态和稳态分布,并以矩阵算法的形式计算不同的性能指标。成本和回报以向量矩阵的方式包含在模型中。制定了若干经济措施,并利用单位时间净报酬对系统进行了优化。算例表明,系统可以根据预防性维护的存在和休假时间的分布进行优化。结果已经用Matlab和R(包:expm,optim)进行了计算实现。
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引用次数: 0
A Software Reliability Model Using Fault Removal Efficiency 一种基于故障排除效率的软件可靠性模型
IF 0.8 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2022-07-27 DOI: 10.13052/jrss0974-8024.1523
Md. Asraful Haque, N. Ahmad
With the increase of human dependency over computer software, considerable effort has been given to determine software reliability effectively. A huge variety of software reliability growth models (SRGMs) have been developed to explain statistically how system reliability varies over time by monitoring the failure data sets during the testing process. The paper proposes a new SRGM based on taking into account the fault removal efficiency which is the ratio of corrected and detected faults during the testing process. The new model is compared to some known model from the relevant literature for two certain data sets and it turns out to perform better in terms of four GOF benchmarks.
随着人类对计算机软件依赖性的增加,人们已经付出了相当大的努力来有效地确定软件的可靠性。已经开发了各种各样的软件可靠性增长模型(SRGM),通过在测试过程中监测故障数据集,从统计上解释系统可靠性如何随时间变化。本文在考虑故障排除效率的基础上提出了一种新的SRGM,故障排除效率是测试过程中纠正和检测到的故障的比率。对于两个特定的数据集,将新模型与相关文献中的一些已知模型进行了比较,结果证明它在四个GOF基准方面表现更好。
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引用次数: 2
A Copula Based Stress-Strength Reliability Estimation with Lindley Marginals 基于Copula的Lindley Marginals应力强度可靠性估计
IF 0.8 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2022-06-02 DOI: 10.13052/jrss0974-8024.15114
A. James, N. Chandra, M. Pandey
The stress-strength model is a basic tool used in evaluating the reliability (R). It shows that a component or system with stress (Y) and strength (X) will fail if the stress exceeds the strength, and its counterpart allows it to function. Usually, the statistical independence between X and Y are assumed and reliability models are extensively developed in the literature. However, in real life, there are many situations in which the dependence stress-strength is taken into account. So it is important to consider and model the association between them. In this paper, we estimated R when the stress and strength parameters are linked by a Fralie-Gumble-Morgenstern copula with Lindley marginals. The estimates of reliability and dependence parameter are obtained by using maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), inference function margins (IFM), and semi parametric (SP) methods. In addition, the length of the asymptotic confidence interval and the coverage probability of the dependence parameter are also computed. A simulation study is performed to evaluate the effectiveness of the various estimates, and a real data set is also used for illustrative purposes.
应力-强度模型是用于评估可靠性(R)的基本工具。它表明具有应力(Y)和强度(X)的部件或系统在应力超过强度时将失效,而其对应项允许它运行。通常,假设X和Y之间的统计独立性,并且在文献中广泛开发了可靠性模型。然而,在实际生活中,有许多情况需要考虑依赖应力强度。因此,考虑和建模它们之间的关联是很重要的。在本文中,我们估计了应力和强度参数由具有Lindley边际的Fralie-Gumble-Morgenstern联结时的R。采用极大似然估计(MLE)、推理函数边界(IFM)和半参数估计(SP)方法对可靠性和依赖参数进行估计。此外,还计算了渐近置信区间的长度和依赖参数的覆盖概率。进行模拟研究以评估各种估计的有效性,并使用真实数据集进行说明。
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引用次数: 1
Prosumption for Social Sustainability: Social-media Posting of DIY-cooking Outcomes During COVID-19 消费促进社会可持续发展:2019冠状病毒病期间diy烹饪成果的社交媒体发布
IF 0.8 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2022-06-02 DOI: 10.13052/jrss0974-8024.15115
Vibha Trivedi, Krishan Kumar Pandey, A. Trivedi
Sharing of Do-It-Yourself (DIY) cooking outcomes on various social media platforms was one of the most visible phenomena on the digital landscapes during COVID-19 led lockdowns. Since the prosumption of food is not considered as a source of alternative food system only, but also as a source of pleasure, DIY-cooking-related social media posts during the lockdown were prevalent among internet users. This paper examines variations in the social media posting behavior of food prosumers based on four individual and three social factors of gender, age, marital status, and family structure. Responses from 198 Facebook food community members were used to test the statistical hypotheses. The analyses report that the need for entertainment value while posting on social media was different among different demographic factors, whereas self-discovery and social enhancement did not exhibit variations across demographics. The need for social presence mattered more for unmarried people during social isolation whereas females used DIY-cooking posting to fulfil the need for uniqueness. The implications for social sustainability and business practices are also discussed.
在新冠肺炎导致的封锁期间,在各种社交媒体平台上分享自己动手烹饪的结果是数字景观中最明显的现象之一。由于食物的生产不仅被视为替代食品系统的来源,而且被视为快乐的来源,因此在封锁期间,与DIY烹饪相关的社交媒体帖子在互联网用户中流行。本文基于性别、年龄、婚姻状况和家庭结构这四个个人和三个社会因素,研究了食品消费者在社交媒体上发布行为的变化。来自198名Facebook食品社区成员的回复被用来检验统计假设。分析报告称,在社交媒体上发帖时对娱乐价值的需求在不同的人口统计因素中是不同的,而自我发现和社交增强在人口统计中没有表现出差异。在社交隔离期间,未婚人士对社交存在的需求更为重要,而女性则使用DIY烹饪帖子来满足独特性的需求。还讨论了对社会可持续性和商业实践的影响。
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引用次数: 1
Improving Efficiencies of Ratio- and Product-type Estimators for Estimating Population Mean for Time-based Survey 提高比率型和乘积型估计器在基于时间的调查中估计总体平均值的效率
IF 0.8 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2022-05-07 DOI: 10.13052/jrss0974-8024.15113
Priyanka Chhaparwal, Sanjay Kumar
Statisticians often use auxiliary information at an estimation stage to increase efficiencies of estimators. In this article, we suggest modified ratio- and product-type estimators utilizing the known value of the coefficient of variation of the auxiliary variable for a time-based survey. Further, to excel the performance of the suggested estimators, we utilize information from the past surveys along with the current surveys through hybrid exponentially weighted average. We obtain expressions for biases and mean square errors of the suggested estimators. The conditions, under which the suggested estimators have less mean square errors than that of other existing estimators, are also obtained. The results obtained through an empirical analysis examine the use of information from past surveys along with current surveys and show that the mean square errors and biases of the suggested estimators are less than that of the existing estimators. For example: for a sample size 5, mean square error and bias of the suggested ratio-type estimator are (0.0414,0.0065) which are less than (0.5581,0.0944) of the existing Cochran (1940) estimator, (0.4788,0.0758), of Sisodia and Dwivedi (1981) estimator and (0.0482,0.0082) of Muhammad Noor-ul-Amin (2020) estimator. Similarly, mean square error and bias of the suggested product- type estimator are (0.0025,−0.0006) which are less than (0.0612,−0.0096) of the existing Murthy (1964) estimator, (0.0286,−0.0071), of Pandey and Dubey (1988) estimator and (0.0053,−0.0008) of Muhammad Noor-ul-Amin (2020) estimator.
统计学家经常在估计阶段使用辅助信息来提高估计的效率。在这篇文章中,我们建议使用辅助变量变异系数的已知值对基于时间的调查进行修正的比率和乘积类型估计。此外,为了提高建议估计量的性能,我们通过混合指数加权平均值利用了过去调查和当前调查的信息。我们得到了所建议的估计量的偏差和均方误差的表达式。还得到了所提出的估计量的均方误差小于其他现有估计量的条件。通过实证分析获得的结果检验了过去调查和当前调查中信息的使用情况,并表明所建议的估计量的均方误差和偏差小于现有估计量。例如:对于样本量为5的情况,所建议的比率型估计器的均方误差和偏差为(0.0414,0.0065),小于现有的Cochran(1940)估计器(0.5581,0.0944)、Sisodia和Dwivedi(1981)估计量(0.4788,0.0758)和Muhammad Noor ul Amin(2020)估计量的(0.0482,0.0082)。类似地,所提出的乘积型估计器的均方误差和偏差为(0.0025,−0.0006),小于现有Murthy(1964)估计器(0.0612,−0.0096)、Pandey和Dubey(1988)估计量(0.0286,−0.0071)和Muhammad Noor ul Amin(2020)估计量的(0.0053,−0.0008)。
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引用次数: 2
GDUS-Modified Topp-Leone Distribution: A New Distribution with Increasing, Decreasing, and Bathtub Hazard Functions GDUS修正的Topp-Leone分布:一个具有增加、减少和浴缸危险函数的新分布
IF 0.8 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2022-05-07 DOI: 10.13052/jrss0974-8024.15112
A. Kaushik, U. Nigam
In this paper, we propose an extension to the Topp-Leone distribution, as introduced by [20] using the Generalized-DUS transformation given by [8]. The Topp-Leone distribution is defined on interval (0,1) and has a characteristic J-shaped frequency curve. The newly extended version of Topp-Leone distribution accommodates a variety of shapes of hazard rate functions making it a versatile distribution. We have also derived explicit expressions for some properties like ordinary moments, conditional moments, distribution of order statistics, quantiles, mean deviation, and entropy. Further, we have also discussed results on identifiability, stress-strength reliability, and stochastic ordering that are concerned with two independent random variables. For inference regarding the unknown parameters of the distribution, we derive the equations which give their maximum likelihood estimators. We also present the asymptotic confidence intervals of the unknown parameters of the distribution, based on large sample property, using the Fisher information matrix. To facilitate further studies, a step-by-step algorithm is presented to produce a random sample from the distribution. Further, extensive simulation experiments are done to study the long-term behavior of the maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters through their mean squared error and mean absolute bias on the basis of large number of samples. The consistency of the MLEs is empirically proved. Lastly, the application of the proposed distribution is shown by fitting a real-life dataset over some existing distributions in the same range.
在本文中,我们提出了Topp-Leone分布的一个扩展,如[20]使用[8]给出的广义DUS变换引入的。Topp-Leone分布定义在区间(0,1)上,并具有特征J形频率曲线。Topp-Leone分布的新扩展版本适应了各种形状的危险率函数,使其成为一种通用分布。我们还导出了一些性质的显式表达式,如常矩、条件矩、阶统计量分布、分位数、平均偏差和熵。此外,我们还讨论了与两个独立随机变量有关的可识别性、应力强度可靠性和随机排序的结果。为了推断分布的未知参数,我们导出了给出其最大似然估计量的方程。我们还利用Fisher信息矩阵,基于大样本性质,给出了分布的未知参数的渐近置信区间。为了便于进一步研究,提出了一种从分布中产生随机样本的分步算法。此外,在大量样本的基础上,通过参数的均方误差和平均绝对偏差,进行了大量的模拟实验来研究参数的最大似然估计量的长期行为。实证证明了MLE的一致性。最后,通过对同一范围内的一些现有分布拟合真实数据集,展示了所提出的分布的应用。
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引用次数: 1
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Journal of Reliability and Statistical Studies
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