INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS AND ECONOMIC POLICY最新文献

This paper discusses the fiscal impact of the COVID-19 crisis across levels of government. It contrasts the composition of revenues and expenditures of different levels of government and their main institutional differences. For revenues, an error correction model is used to estimate the short-term elasticities of different levels of government, showing that subnational governments' (SNGs) revenues are less sensitive to economic downturns than central governments', mostly because SNGs tend to rely more on recurrent taxes on immovable property. For expenditures, central governments are often responsible for the bulk of expenditure on social protection, while SNGs have a higher investment-to-revenue ratio. The combination of these differences of expenditure assignment with the substantial budget and borrowing constraints that SNGs face creates a tendency towards pro-cyclicality at the subnational level and counter-cyclicality at the central level. Furthermore, in the context of the COVID-19 crisis, in order for SNGs to have the fiscal capacity for necessary measures to tackle the outbreak, central governments supported SNGs mostly through intergovernmental grants. As a consequence, central governments have absorbed most of the shock.

Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10368-021-00518-1.

The environmental concern of people in industrialized and developing countries is analyzed. Using the 2010-2014 wave of the World Value Survey (WVS), the main purpose of our analysis is to investigate the effect of different information sources on the affective, conative and behavioral components of the environmental concern of people in the developed and developing countries. As independent variables, we use a set of economic data as well as information-related variables, including the internet, mobile phones, TV, radio and newspapers. The digital variables of the internet and mobile phones turn out to have a highly significant impact on environmental concern so that digital modernization of countries should have pro-environmental impacts as a side effect of internet and mobile phone services expansion. With the developing countries catching-up vis-à-vis the OECD countries in the field of mobile phone density and internet density, respectively, one may expect better prospects for cooperation between developed and developing countries since attitudes/the environmental concern of people in developed and developing countries will become more similar. For international green cooperation and climate change policy progress, the new findings presented herein are crucial.

This paper analyzes the macroeconomic effects of the Covid-19 epidemic on Euro Area (EA) GDP and inflation, using a stylized New Keynesian model. Covid is interpreted as a combination of aggregate demand and aggregate supply disturbances. Offsetting aggregate demand and supply changes are shown to account for the stability of EA inflation, in the face of Covid. The evidence presented here indicates that Covid-induced aggregate demand and supply shifts were persistent. An aggregate supply contraction is identified as the dominant force driving the sharp fall of EA GDP in 2020.

In this article we seek to gain a better understanding of the decline in interest rates observed over the long term and we ask whether this trend is likely to stop or even reverse as a result of the covid crisis. For this, we introduce a model that combines an intertemporal framework and a price adjustment process. This model makes it possible to derive a testable relationship between observable macroeconomic variables. Tests carried out on a panel of 19 OECD countries confirm the influence of factors suggested by the theoretical model, in particular, the link between the fall in the interest rate and the economic slowdown. The covid episode is analyzed as a mixed shock of supply and demand. The exit from the covid crisis could be accompanied by a rebound, but rising real interest rates are not the most likely scenario.

In this paper, the effect of corruption on foreign direct investment (FDI) flows is analyzed. The literature is thus far divided regarding the effects of corruption: One hypothesis argues that corruption greases the wheels of government and is therefore beneficial while the other hypothesis argues that it sands the wheels of government leading to suboptimal results in an economy. For the empirical analysis, a dataset consisting of bilateral FDI data from the OECD and the control of corruption measure from the World Governance Indicators of the World Bank is compiled. To further analyze the effects of corruption the Panama Papers revelation is used as a corruption increasing event and the implementation into law of the OECD Anti-Bribery Convention is used as a corruption decreasing event. Finally, the difference between corruption levels in the target and the origin country, will be examined. Then, a gravity model with dyadic and time-fixed effects is employed to analyze the data. Findings are ambiguous in that corruption is positively correlated with FDI inflows in the target country and negatively correlated with FDI inflows in the origin country. The Panama Papers variable shows strong evidence, that the release of the Panama Papers resulted in a drop in FDI flows. Therefore, it seems that corruption has complex country specific effects and that target and source countries have to adopt varying policies with regards to corruption. The general effect of corruption harms FDI flows, as shown by the Panama Papers revelation.

Vaccinations, lockdowns and testing strategies are three potential elements of an effective anti-coronavirus, and in particular Covid-19, health policy. The following analysis considers - within a simple model - the potentially crucial role of a Corona testing approach in combination with a quarantine approach which is shown herein to be a substitute for broad lockdown measures. The cost of lockdowns/shutdowns are rather high so that - beyond progress in terms of a broad vaccination program - a rational testing strategy should also be carefully considered. Testing has to be organized on the basis of an adequate testing infrastructure which could largely be implemented in firms, schools, universities and public administration settings. As regards the cost of a systematic broad Covid-19 testing strategy, these could come close to 0.5% of national income if there are no vaccinations. The Testing & Quarantine approach suggested here - with tests for symptomatic as well as asymptomatic people - is based on a random sampling and would require rather broad and frequent testing; possibly one test per person every 7-10 days. At the same time, one should consider that the cost of further lockdowns/shutdowns of a duration of 1 month could be very high, such that a standard cost benefit analysis supports the testing approach suggested herein. Also, an optimal policy mix could be designed where both vaccinations and testing play a crucial role. As of late January 2021, no further lockdowns in Germany and other OECD countries would be necessary if a broad testing infrastructure can be established rather quickly. This in turn will reinforce economic optimism and help to jumpstart economic growth in Europe, the US and Asia in a solid way. The basic logic of the testing approach pointed out here for industrialized countries could also be applied in developing countries. The approach presented is complementary to the IMF analysis of Cherif/Hasanov.

Using a large panel for 95 countries and the 1972-2014 period, this paper analyses the interactions among globalization, political & civil rights and economic convergence, through a simultaneous estimation technique. We use a multi-dimensional, de facto, and continuous measures of Freedoms and Globalization. We find a two-way positive relationship between civil liberties & political rights and economic, political and social Globalization, as well as significant two-way relationships with the economic convergence (using as a proxy the ratio of GDP per capita to the US). In this way, we extend the test for the two-way relationship between Democracy and Globalization put forward by Eichengreen and Leblang (Econ Politics 20(3):289-334, 2008). Overall, we also find a virtuous cycle between Globalization, Freedoms and Economic convergence, except for non-OECD countries at early intermediate stages of development. This positive systemic effect can be put into question by the recent negative shocks on Globalization and Freedoms related to the Covid-19 pandemic.

This paper explores the impact of the COVID-19 lockdown on aggregate employment in Belgium. To this end, we use microdata of all Belgian firms and apply a machine learning-based approach to simulate the impact of the lockdown on employment growth under various economic scenarios. In doing so, we distinguish between start-ups and incumbent firms with both short and long-term effects. In the short term, we expect to see significant losses of employment coming mainly from mature incumbent firms. In the long term, the missing generation of start-ups formed during the lockdown will have a significant and growing effect of slowing down the employment growth even a decade after the lockdown.