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The Timing of Redistribution 再分配的时机
Pub Date : 2013-03-26 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1144803
G. Glomm, Juergen Jung
We investigate whether late redistribution programs that can be targeted toward low income families, but that may distort savings decisions, can “dominate” early redistribution programs that cannot be targeted as a result of information constraints. We use simple two-period overlapping generations models with heterogeneous agents under six policy regimes: a model calibrated to the U.S. economy (benchmark), two early redistribution (lump sum) regimes, two (targeted) late redistribution regimes, and finally a model without taxes and redistribution. Redistribution programs are financed by a labor tax on the young generation and a capital tax on the old generation. We argue that if the programs are small in size, late redistribution can dominate early redistribution in terms of welfare but not in terms of real output. Better targeting of low income households cannot completely offset savings distortions. In addition, we find that the optimal transfer and tax policy implies a capital tax of 100% and transfers exclusively to the young generation.
我们调查是否可以针对低收入家庭的后期再分配计划,但这可能会扭曲储蓄决策,可以“主导”由于信息限制而无法针对的早期再分配计划。我们在六种政策制度下使用简单的两期重叠代模型和异质代理:一个针对美国经济(基准)校准的模型,两个早期再分配(一次性支付)制度,两个(有针对性的)后期再分配制度,最后一个没有税收和再分配的模型。再分配计划的资金来源是对年轻一代征收劳动税,对老一代征收资本税。我们认为,如果项目规模较小,那么就福利而言,晚期再分配可以支配早期再分配,但就实际产出而言则不然。更好地针对低收入家庭并不能完全抵消储蓄扭曲。此外,我们发现最优的转移和税收政策意味着100%的资本税,并且只向年轻一代转移。
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引用次数: 7
Transfers and Labor Market Behavior of the Elderly in Developing Countries: Theory and Evidence from Vietnam 发展中国家老年人转移与劳动力市场行为:来自越南的理论与证据
Pub Date : 2009-08-29 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1147649
C. Tran, Juergen Jung
In this paper, I analyze the crowding-out effects of public transfers on labor supply of the elderly in the context of developing countries. I argue that the interactions between private transfers received and labor supplied by the elderly affect the opportunity cost of retirement and, therefore, magnify the crowding-out effects of public transfers on the labor supply of the elderly. Using household survey data from Vietnam, I find the evidence supporting this hypothesis. That is, the crowding-out effect is about two times larger when accounting for the endogeneity of private transfers, which is caused by the interactions of private transfers and the labor supply.
本文以发展中国家为背景,分析公共转移对老年劳动力供给的挤出效应。我认为,老年人接受的私人转移支付与提供的劳动力之间的相互作用影响了退休的机会成本,从而放大了公共转移支付对老年人劳动力供应的挤出效应。利用越南的家庭调查数据,我找到了支持这一假设的证据。也就是说,当考虑私人转移的内生性时,挤出效应大约大两倍,这是由私人转移和劳动力供给相互作用造成的。
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引用次数: 6
Why Do Education Vouchers Fail? 为什么教育券失败?
Pub Date : 2009-08-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1456391
G. Glomm, P. Bearse, Buly A. Cardak, B. Ravikumar
We examine quantitatively why uniform vouchers have repeatedly suffered electoral defeats against the current system where public and private schools coexist. We argue that the topping-up option available under uniform vouchers is not suficiently valuable for the poorer households to prefer the uniform vouchers to the current mix of public and private education. We then develop a model of publicly funded means-tested education vouchers where the voucher received by each household is a linearly decreasing function of income. Public policy, which is determined by majority voting, consists of two dimensions: the overall funding level (or the tax rate) and the slope of the means testing function. We solve the model when the political decisions are sequential-households vote first on the tax rate and then on the extent of means testing. We establish that a majority voting equilibrium exists. We show that the means-tested voucher regime is majority preferred to the status-quo. These results are robust to alternative preference parameters, income distribution parameters and voter turnout.
我们从数量上考察了为什么统一教育券在与目前公立和私立学校并存的制度相比一再遭受选举失败。我们认为,在统一教育券下提供的充值选项没有足够的价值,使较贫穷的家庭更喜欢统一教育券,而不是目前的公立和私立教育组合。然后,我们开发了一个公共资助的经经济状况调查的教育券模型,其中每个家庭收到的教育券是收入的线性递减函数。公共政策由多数投票决定,由两个维度组成:总体资金水平(或税率)和经济状况调查函数的斜率。当政治决策是顺序的——家庭首先投票决定税率,然后投票决定经济状况调查的范围——我们解决这个模型。我们建立了多数投票均衡的存在。我们表明,大多数人更喜欢经济状况调查券制度,而不是维持现状。这些结果对替代偏好参数、收入分配参数和选民投票率具有鲁棒性。
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引用次数: 11
Exchange Rates, Oil Price Shocks, and Monetary Policy In an Economy with Traded and Non-Traded Goods 贸易和非贸易商品经济中的汇率、油价冲击和货币政策
Pub Date : 2009-08-14 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1456396
Michael D. Plante
This paper examines monetary policy responses to oil price shocks in a small open economy that produces traded and non-traded goods. When only labor and oil are used in production and prices are sticky in the non-traded sector the behavior of inflation, the nominal exchange rate, and the relative price of the non-traded good depends crucially upon whether the ratio of the cost share of oil to the cost share of labor is higher for the traded or non-traded sector. If the ratio is smaller (higher) for the traded sector then a policy that fully stabilizes non-traded inflation causes the nominal exchange rate to appreciate (depreciate) and the relative price of the non-traded good to rise (fall) when there is a surprise rise in the price of oil. Similar results can hold for a policy that stabilizes CPI inflation. Under a policy that flexes the nominal exchange rate, non-traded inflation rises (falls) if the ratio is smaller (larger) for the traded sector. Analytical results show that a policy of fixing the exchange rate always produces a unique solution and that a policy of stabilizing non-traded inflation produces a unique solution so long as the nominal interest rate is raised more than one-for-one with rises in non-traded inflation. A policy that stabilizes CPI inflation, however, produces multiple equilibria for a wide range of calibrations of the policy rule.
本文考察了一个生产贸易和非贸易商品的小型开放经济体对油价冲击的货币政策反应。当生产中只使用劳动力和石油,而非贸易部门的价格具有粘性时,非贸易部门的通货膨胀行为、名义汇率和非贸易商品的相对价格关键取决于石油成本份额与劳动力成本份额之比在贸易部门或非贸易部门中是否更高。如果贸易部门的比率较小(较高),那么当石油价格意外上涨时,完全稳定非贸易通胀的政策会导致名义汇率上升(贬值),非贸易商品的相对价格上升(下降)。类似的结果也适用于稳定CPI通胀的政策。在浮动名义汇率的政策下,如果贸易部门的比率较小(较大),则非贸易通胀上升(下降)。分析结果表明,固定汇率政策总是产生唯一解,稳定非交易性通货膨胀的政策只要名义利率与非交易性通货膨胀的上升幅度大于1比1,就会产生唯一解。然而,稳定CPI通胀的政策会为政策规则的大范围校准产生多重均衡。
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引用次数: 3
How Should Monetary Policy Respond to Changes in the Relative Price of Oil? Considering Supply and Demand Shocks 货币政策应如何应对石油相对价格的变化?考虑供给和需求冲击
Pub Date : 2009-08-14 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1456384
Michael D. Plante
This paper examines optimal monetary policy in a New Keynesian model where supply and demand shocks affect the price of oil. Optimal policy fully stabilizes core inflation when wages are flexible. The nominal rate rises (falls) in response to the demand (supply) shock. With sticky wages core inflation falls (rises) in response to the demand (supply) shock. Impulse response functions from a VAR estimated with post-1986 U.S. data show minimal movement in core inflation in response to both shocks. The federal funds rate rises (falls) in response to the demand (supply) shock, consistent with the predictions from the theoretical model for policy that stabilizes core inflation.
本文考察了供给和需求冲击影响石油价格的新凯恩斯模型中的最优货币政策。当工资是灵活的时,最优政策能完全稳定核心通胀。名义利率随着需求(供给)的冲击而上升(下降)。对于粘性工资,核心通货膨胀随着需求(供给)冲击而下降(上升)。根据1986年后美国数据估算的VAR脉冲响应函数显示,核心通胀对这两种冲击的反应最小。联邦基金利率的上升(下降)是对需求(供给)冲击的反应,与稳定核心通胀的政策理论模型的预测相一致。
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引用次数: 29
Anchoring Fiscal Expectations 锚定财政预期
Pub Date : 2009-08-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1456393
E. Leeper
In this lecture, I argue that there are remarkable parallels between how monetary and fiscal policies operate on the macro economy and that these parallels are sufficient to lead us to think about transforming fiscal policy and fiscal institutions as many countries have transformed monetary policy and monetary institutions. Making fiscal transparency comparable to monetary transparency requires fiscal authorities to discuss future possible fiscal policies explicitly. Enhanced fiscal transparency can help anchor expectations of fiscal policy and make fiscal actions more predictable and effective. As advanced economies move into a prolonged period of heightened fiscal activity, anchoring fiscal expectations will become an increasingly important aspect of macroeconomic policy.
在这次演讲中,我认为货币政策和财政政策对宏观经济的作用之间存在着显著的相似之处,这些相似之处足以引导我们思考财政政策和财政制度的转变,正如许多国家已经改变了货币政策和货币制度一样。要使财政透明度与货币透明度相媲美,财政当局必须明确讨论未来可能出台的财政政策。提高财政透明度有助于稳定财政政策预期,提高财政行动的可预测性和有效性。随着发达经济体进入财政活动增加的长期阶段,锚定财政预期将成为宏观经济政策日益重要的一个方面。
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引用次数: 59
Fiscal and Monetary Policy Responses to Oil Price Shocks in Oil Importing Low Income Countries 石油进口低收入国家应对油价冲击的财政和货币政策
Pub Date : 2009-08-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1456398
Michael D. Plante
This paper considers monetary and fiscal policy responses to oil price shocks in low income oil importing countries. I examine the dynamic properties and the welfare implications of a set of inflation targeting policies and a group of policies where the government provides a subsidy on household purchases of oil products and finances this subsidy through some combination of printing money and raising non-distortionary lump sum taxes. Even in the case where lump sum taxes finance the subsidy, it distorts household behavior in important ways leading to over consumption of oil products, increased trade deficits, and distortions to the labor supply. Resorting to the inflation tax to finance the subsidy leads to significant macroeconomic issues when exchange rates are flexible. The welfare gains from a policy that finances the subsidy through lump sum taxation are small compared to the policy with full pass through. For most calibrations the losses from financing the policy through the inflation tax are substantial. The welfare generated by the inflation targeting policies is close to the baseline policy with full pass through so long as the response to inflation is strong enough.
本文研究了低收入石油进口国应对油价冲击的货币和财政政策。我研究了一组通胀目标政策和一组政策的动态特性和福利含义,其中政府为家庭购买石油产品提供补贴,并通过印钞和提高非扭曲性一次性税收的某种组合为这种补贴提供资金。即使在一次性税收为补贴提供资金的情况下,它也在重要方面扭曲了家庭行为,导致石油产品的过度消费,增加了贸易逆差,扭曲了劳动力供给。在汇率灵活的情况下,通过征收通胀税来为补贴提供资金,会导致重大的宏观经济问题。通过一次性税收提供补贴的政策所获得的福利收益比完全通过的政策要小。就大多数标准而言,通过通胀税为政策提供资金的损失是巨大的。只要对通胀的反应足够强烈,通胀目标制政策所产生的福利接近于基线政策的完全传递。
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引用次数: 0
Dynamics of Fiscal Financing in the United States 美国财政融资的动态
Pub Date : 2009-07-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1456361
E. Leeper, Michael D. Plante, Nora Traum
Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models that include policy rules for government spending, lump-sum transfers, and distortionary taxation on labor and capital income and on consumption expenditures are fit to U.S. data under a variety of specifications of fiscal policy rules. We obtain several results. First, the best fitting model allows a rich set of fiscal instruments to respond to stabilize debt. Second, responses of aggregate variables to fiscal policy shocks under rich fiscal rules can vary considerably from responses that allow only non-distortionary fiscal instruments to finance debt. Third, based on estimated policy rules, transfers, capital tax rates, and government spending have historically responded strongly to government debt, while labor taxes have responded more weakly. Fourth, all components of the intertemporal condition linking debt to expected discounted surpluses---transfers, spending, tax revenues, and discount factors---display instances where their expected movements are important in establishing equilibrium. Fifth, debt-financed fiscal shocks trigger long lasting dynamics so that short-run multipliers can differ markedly from long-run multipliers, even in their signs.
动态随机一般均衡模型包括政府支出的政策规则,一次性转移,以及对劳动和资本收入以及消费支出的扭曲税收,适用于各种财政政策规则规范下的美国数据。我们得到了几个结果。首先,最合适的模型允许一套丰富的财政工具来稳定债务。其次,在丰富的财政规则下,总体变量对财政政策冲击的反应可能与只允许非扭曲性财政工具为债务融资的反应大不相同。第三,根据估计的政策规则,从历史上看,转移支付、资本税率和政府支出对政府债务的反应强烈,而劳动税的反应则较弱。第四,将债务与预期贴现盈余联系起来的跨期条件的所有组成部分——转移支付、支出、税收收入和贴现因素——都表明,它们的预期变动对建立均衡很重要。第五,债务融资的财政冲击会触发长期的动力,因此短期乘数可能与长期乘数显著不同,即使是在它们的迹象上也是如此。
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引用次数: 327
The Beveridge Curve in the Housing Market: Supply and Disequilibrium 住房市场中的贝弗里奇曲线:供给与不均衡
Pub Date : 2009-06-26 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1456351
B. Peterson
There is a long-run `Beveridge Curve' in the Housing market given by the negative relationship between the vacancy rate of housing and the rate of household formation. This is true in the owner-occupied market, the rental market, and the total market for housing irrespective of ownership status. The Beveridge Curve represents a long-run supply condition that can be explained by assuming that (1) the cost to produce a new house is decreasing in the growth rate of the housing stock and (2) the probability to sell a new house is decreasing in the vacancy rate. Short-run deviations from the Beveridge curve represent a measurement of oversupply. Using a years of supply metric, for the total housing market irrespective of ownership, in 2007-2008 there were 0.995 years of supply, more than three times the previous peak of 0.285 years of supply in 1973-1974. Comparing the rental market to the owner-occupied market, oversupply generally shows up in the rental market, not the owner-occupied market and the oversupply in the rental market is twice as volatile as oversupply in the owner-occupied market, implying that a large part of the market adjustment to housing supply occurs in the rental market. Interestingly two-thirds of the oversupply in 2007-2008 resided in the rental market as opposed to the owner-occupied market. Using FHFA data for house prices, 46% of the movements in oversupply in the owner-occupied market since 1975 can be explained by house price movements. The last result suggests that at short horizons (4-6 years) house prices are not determined by supply. Rather, house prices drive supply at short time horizons, permitting bubbles and oversupplies of housing to form.
住房空置率与家庭组建率之间的负相关关系给出了住房市场的长期“贝弗里奇曲线”。这在自住市场、租赁市场和整个住房市场都是如此,无论所有权状况如何。贝弗里奇曲线代表一个长期供给条件,它可以通过假设(1)生产新房子的成本随着住房存量增长率的下降而下降,(2)出售新房子的概率随着空置率的下降而下降来解释。贝弗里奇曲线的短期偏差代表了供过于求的衡量标准。以供应年为衡量标准,在2007年至2008年,整个房地产市场的供应量为0.995年,是1973年至1974年0.285年供应量峰值的三倍多。将租赁市场与自住市场进行比较,供过于求通常出现在租赁市场,而非自住市场,并且租赁市场供过于求的波动性是自住市场供过于求的两倍,这意味着市场对住房供应的调整很大一部分发生在租赁市场。有趣的是,2007-2008年三分之二的供过于求出现在租赁市场,而非自住市场。使用FHFA的房价数据,自1975年以来,自住市场中46%的供过于求的变动可以用房价变动来解释。最后的结果表明,在短期内(4-6年),房价不是由供应决定的。相反,房价会在短期内推动供应,从而形成泡沫和住房供应过剩。
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引用次数: 3
Government Investment and Fiscal Stimulus in The Short and Long Runs 短期和长期的政府投资和财政刺激
Pub Date : 2009-06-19 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1456359
E. Leeper, Shu-Chun S. Yang, Todd B. Walker
This paper contributes to the debate about fiscal multipliers by studying the impacts of government investment in conventional neoclassical growth models. The analysis focuses on two dimensions of fiscal policy that are critical for understanding the effects of government investment: implementation delays associated with building public capital projects and expected future fiscal adjustments to debt-financed spending. Implementation delays can produce small or even negative labor and output responses in the short run; anticipated fiscal financing adjustments matter both quantitatively and qualitatively for long-run growth effects. Taken together, these two dimensions have important implications for the short-run and long-run impacts of fiscal stimulus in the form of higher government infrastructure investment. The analysis is conducted in several models with features relevant for studying government spending, including utility-yielding government consumption, time-to-build for private investment, and government production.
本文通过研究传统新古典增长模型中政府投资的影响,为财政乘数的争论做出了贡献。该分析侧重于财政政策的两个方面,这两个方面对于理解政府投资的影响至关重要:与建设公共资本项目相关的实施延迟,以及对债务融资支出的预期未来财政调整。执行延迟可能在短期内产生较小甚至负的劳动和输出响应;预期的财政融资调整对长期增长的影响在数量和质量上都很重要。综上所述,这两个维度对财政刺激(以增加政府基础设施投资的形式)的短期和长期影响具有重要意义。分析是在几个模型中进行的,这些模型具有与研究政府支出相关的特征,包括产生效用的政府消费、私人投资的建设时间和政府生产。
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引用次数: 96
期刊
CAEPR: Center for Applied Economics & Policy Research Working Paper Series
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