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Endogenous Mechanisms and Nash Equilibrium in Competitive Contracting 竞争契约中的内生机制与纳什均衡
Pub Date : 2007-11-07 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1028297
F. Page, P. Monteiro
We model strategic competition in a market with asymmetric information as a noncooperative game in which each firm competes for the business of a buyer of unknown type by offering the buyer a catalog of products and prices. The timing in our model is Stackelberg: in the first stage, given the distribution of buyer types known to all firms and the deducible, type-dependent best responses of the agent, firms simultaneously and noncooperatively choose their catalog offers. In the second stage the buyer, knowing his type, chooses a single firm and product-price pair from that firm's catalog. By backward induction, this Stackelberg game with asymmetric information reduces to a game over catalogs with payoff indeterminacies. In particular, due to ties within catalogs and/or across catalogs, corresponding to any catalog profile offered by firms there may be multiple possible expected firm payoffs, all consistent with the rational optimizing behavior of the agent for each of his types. The resolution of these indeterminacies depends on the tie-breaking mechanism which emerges in the market. Because each tie-breaking mechanism induces a particular game over catalogs, a reasonable candidate would be a tie-breaking mechanism which supports a Nash equilibrium in the corresponding catalog game. We call such a mechanism an endogenous Nash mechanism. The fundamental question we address in this paper is, does there exist an endogenous Nash mechanism - and therefore, does there exist a Nash equilibrium for the catalog game? We show under fairly mild conditions on primitives that catalog games naturally possess tie-breaking mechanisms which support Nash equilibria.
我们将具有不对称信息的市场中的战略竞争建模为一个非合作博弈,在这个博弈中,每个公司通过向未知类型的买家提供产品目录和价格来竞争该买家的业务。我们的模型中的时间是Stackelberg:在第一阶段,给定所有公司已知的买家类型分布以及代理的可扣除的、类型依赖的最佳响应,公司同时且不合作地选择他们的目录报价。在第二阶段,买家知道自己的类型,从该公司的目录中选择一家公司和产品价格对。通过逆向归纳法,将具有非对称信息的Stackelberg博弈简化为具有收益不确定性的目录博弈。特别是,由于目录内和/或目录间的联系,对应于公司提供的任何目录配置文件,可能存在多种可能的预期公司收益,所有这些都符合代理对每种类型的理性优化行为。这些不确定性的解决取决于市场中出现的破环机制。因为每一种破局机制都会引发一种特定的目录博弈,所以一个合理的候选机制应该是在相应的目录博弈中支持纳什均衡的破局机制。我们称这种机制为内生性纳什机制。我们在本文中要解决的基本问题是,是否存在一种内生性纳什机制——因此,是否存在目录博弈的纳什均衡?我们证明了在相当温和的原语条件下,目录博弈自然具有支持纳什均衡的破局机制。
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引用次数: 8
Exports and Productivity - Comparable Evidence for 14 Countries by The International Study Group on Exports and Productivity 出口和生产力:出口和生产力国际研究小组对14个国家的比较证据
Pub Date : 2007-11-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1059201
J Wagner
We use comparable micro level panel data for 14 countries and a set of identically specified empirical models to investigate the relationship between exports and productivity. Our overall results are in line with the big picture that is by now familiar from the literature: Exporters are more productive than non-exporters when observed and unobserved heterogeneity are controlled for, and these exporter productivity premia tend to increase with the share of exports in total sales; there is strong evidence in favor of self-selection of more productive firms into export markets, but nearly no evidence in favor of the learning-by-exporting hypothesis. We document that the exporter premia differ considerably across countries in identically specified empirical models. In a meta-analysis of our results we find that countries that are more open and have more effective government report higher productivity premia. However, the level of development per se does not appear to be an explanation for the observed cross-country differences.
我们使用14个国家的可比较微观层面的面板数据和一套相同指定的经验模型来研究出口与生产率之间的关系。我们的总体结果与现在从文献中熟悉的大图景一致:当观察到和未观察到的异质性被控制时,出口商比非出口商更具生产力,这些出口商的生产力溢价往往随着出口在总销售额中的份额而增加;有强有力的证据支持生产率更高的企业进入出口市场的自我选择,但几乎没有证据支持出口学习假说。我们证明,在相同指定的经验模型中,出口商溢价在各国之间差异很大。在对我们的结果进行的荟萃分析中,我们发现,更开放、政府更有效的国家报告了更高的生产率溢价。然而,发展水平本身似乎并不能解释所观察到的跨国差异。
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引用次数: 112
Strategic Basins of Attraction, the Path Dominance Core, and Network Formation Games 战略吸引力盆地、路径优势核心与网络形成博弈
Pub Date : 2007-10-04 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1019244
Frank H. Page, M. Wooders
Given the preferences of players and the rules governing network formation, what networks are likely to emerge and persist? And how do individuals and coalitions evaluate possible consequences of their actions in forming networks? To address these questions we introduce a model of network formation whose primitives consist of a feasible set of networks, player preferences, the rules of network formation, and a dominance relation on feasible networks. The rules of network formation may range from non-cooperative, where players may only act unilaterally, to cooperative, where coalitions of players may act in concert. The dominance relation over feasible networks incorporates not only player preferences and the rules of network formation but also assumptions concerning the degree of farsightedness of players. A specification of the primitives induces an abstract game consisting of (i) a feasible set of networks, and (ii) a path dominance relation defined on the feasible set of networks. Using this induced game we characterize sets of network outcomes that are likely to emerge and persist. Finally, we apply our approach and results to characterize the equilibrium of well known models and their rules of network formation, such as those of Jackson and Wolinsky (1996) and Jackson and van den Nouweland (2005).
考虑到参与者的偏好和控制网络形成的规则,什么样的网络可能会出现并持续存在?个人和联盟如何评估他们形成网络的行为可能产生的后果?为了解决这些问题,我们引入了一个网络形成模型,该模型的基本要素包括一组可行网络、玩家偏好、网络形成规则和可行网络上的优势关系。网络形成的规则可以从非合作性(玩家只能单方面行动)到合作性(玩家联盟可以一致行动)不等。可行网络的优势关系不仅包含了玩家偏好和网络形成规则,还包含了关于玩家远见程度的假设。通过对原语的说明,可以归纳出一个抽象的博弈,该博弈由(i)可行网络集和(ii)可行网络集上定义的路径优势关系组成。利用这种诱导博弈,我们描述了可能出现并持续存在的网络结果集。最后,我们应用我们的方法和结果来描述众所周知的模型及其网络形成规则的均衡,例如Jackson和Wolinsky(1996)以及Jackson和van den Nouweland(2005)的模型。
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引用次数: 114
What Has Financed Government Debt? 什么为政府债务融资?
Pub Date : 2007-09-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1013405
Hess T. Chung, E. Leeper
Dynamic rational expectations models imply that the real value of debt in the hands of the public must be equal to the expected present-value of surpluses. We impose this equilibrium condition on an identified VAR and characterize the way in which the present-value support of debt varies across various types of fiscal policy shocks and between fiscal and non-fiscal shocks. The role of expected primary surpluses in supporting innovations to debt depends on the nature of the shock. For some fiscal policy shocks, debt is supported almost entirely by changes in the present-value of surpluses, however, in the case of other fiscal policy shocks, surpluses fail to adjust and instead leave a large role for expected changes in discount rates. Horizons over which debt innovations are financed are long - on the order of fifty years - while present-values calculated up to any finite horizon up to then fluctuate wildly, particularly following government spending and transfer shocks.
动态理性预期模型暗示,公众手中债务的实际价值必须等于盈余的预期现值。我们将这一均衡条件强加于已确定的VAR,并描述了债务的现值支持在不同类型的财政政策冲击以及财政和非财政冲击之间的变化方式。预期的基本盈余在支持债务创新方面的作用,取决于冲击的性质。对于某些财政政策冲击,债务几乎完全是由盈余现值的变化来支持的,然而,在其他财政政策冲击的情况下,盈余无法调整,反而给预期的贴现率变化留下了很大的作用。债务创新融资的期限很长——大约为50年——而计算出的现值在任何有限期限内都将大幅波动,尤其是在政府支出和转移支付受到冲击之后。
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引用次数: 97
Endogenous Timing of Actions Under Conflict between Two Types of Second Mover Advantage 两种后发优势冲突下的内生行动时机选择
Pub Date : 2007-07-30 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1003843
Y. Yoon
In a model, two players, heterogeneous in their information quality, compete with each other with perfect information about the other player's information quality. If they can decide their timings of actions endogenously, the less-informed player has an incentive to delay her action for learning. On the other hand, the more-informed player wants to delay her action to prevent her information from being revealed, not to enable her to learn. The conflict of these two types of second mover advantages yields a war of attrition. Although both players can benefit from acting as the follower, the gain from a delay for learning is greater than that for preventing the other's learning. Therefore, a cost for the delay in action plays an important role in characterizing the equilibrium. In contrast to the literature, in which only informational externalities are considered, this article shows that the introduction of payoff externalities contributes to different procedures and reasoning processes through which the heterogeneous players' timings of actions are decided endogenously.
在一个模型中,两个信息质量不同的参与者,以关于对方信息质量的完全信息相互竞争。如果他们能够内生地决定自己的行动时机,那么信息较少的玩家就有动机推迟自己的行动以进行学习。另一方面,消息灵通的玩家想要延迟自己的行动,以防止自己的信息被泄露,而不是让自己学习。这两种后发优势的冲突产生了一场消耗战。尽管双方都能从作为跟随者中获益,但延迟学习的收益要大于阻止对方学习的收益。因此,行动延迟的代价在均衡中起着重要的作用。与只考虑信息外部性的文献不同,本文表明,报酬外部性的引入有助于不同的程序和推理过程,通过这些程序和推理过程,异质参与者的行动时机是内生决定的。
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引用次数: 8
The Unbalanced Matching in a Director Market 董事市场中的不平衡匹配
Changmin Lee
I construct an intertemporal searching model ("take it or leave it offer") in a frictional directorship market to explain the unbalanced matching between the director and the firm. In this model, potential candidates for outside directors and firms have heterogeneous (also, well ordered) quality levels. Also, both parties have strictly ordered preferences over the quality of counterpart from high levels to low levels. A candidate considers his quality ranking to compare the value of accepting a favorite offer at present to the value of waiting for successful matching with a better offer in the future. My model suggests that that highly qualified candidates would be likely to be matched with bad (not too bad) firms. The best candidate could go to the 150th ranked firm over 250 firms under the uniform distribution for the quality of the firm, and the 140th ranked firm under the extreme value distribution.
笔者在摩擦董事市场中构建了一个跨期搜索模型(“要么接受要么放弃”)来解释董事与公司之间的不平衡匹配。在这个模型中,外部董事和公司的潜在候选人具有不同的(同时也是有序的)素质水平。此外,双方对对方质量的偏好也从高到低进行了严格的排序。候选人考虑自己的素质排名,以比较目前接受最喜欢的工作机会的价值与等待未来成功匹配更好的工作机会的价值。我的模型表明,高素质的候选人很可能会被差(不算太差)的公司匹配。在企业质量均匀分布条件下,在250家企业中排名第150位的企业和在极值分布条件下排名第140位的企业是最佳候选人。
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引用次数: 0
Joint and Marginal Diagnostic Tests for Conditional Mean and Variance Specifications 条件均值和方差说明的联合和边际诊断检验
J. Escanciano
This article proposes a general class of joint and marginal diagnostic tests for parametric conditional mean and variance models of possibly nonlinear non-Markovian time series sequences. The use of joint and marginal tests is motivated from the fact that marginal tests for the conditional variance may lead misleading conclusions when the conditional mean is misspecified. The new tests are based on a generalized spectral approach and, contrary to existing procedures, they do not need to choose a lag order depending on the sample size or to smooth the data. Moreover, the proposed tests are robust to higher order dependence of unknown form, in particular to conditional skewness and kurtosis. It turns out that the asymptotic null distributions of the new tests depend on the data generating process, so a new bootstrap procedure is proposed and theoretically justified. A simulation study compares the finite sample performance of the proposed and competing tests and shows that our tests can play a valuable role in time series modeling. Finally, an application to the S&P 500 highlights the merits of our approach.
本文提出了一类可能为非线性的非马尔可夫时间序列的参数条件均值和方差模型的联合和边缘诊断检验。使用联合检验和边际检验的动机是这样一个事实,即条件方差的边际检验可能在条件均值指定不当时导致误导性结论。新的测试基于广义谱方法,与现有程序相反,它们不需要根据样本量选择滞后顺序或平滑数据。此外,所提出的检验对未知形式的高阶依赖性具有鲁棒性,特别是对条件偏度和峰度。结果表明,新检验的渐近零分布依赖于数据生成过程,因此提出了一种新的自举方法,并在理论上得到了证明。仿真研究比较了所提出的测试和竞争测试的有限样本性能,表明我们的测试可以在时间序列建模中发挥有价值的作用。最后,标普500指数的应用凸显了我们方法的优点。
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引用次数: 7
What's Happened over the Past 10 Years to the Selection of Retired CEOs as Board Members? 在过去的10年里,退休ceo作为董事会成员的选择发生了什么变化?
Changmin Lee
I analyze directorships held by CEOs who retired during 1989-1993 and during 1998-2002. My results suggest that retired CEOs became more popular on boards. Also, although pre-retirement accounting performance helps explain the number of outside directorships a retired CEO held in the 1989-1993 sample as Brickley, Linck, and Coles (1999) found, it does not in the 1998-2002 sample. Third, a company's stock performance during a CEO's tenure affects whether he became an inside director of that company after retirement. A 25% change in stock price performance increased the probability by 11% in the 1989-1993 sample, and 51% in the 1998-2002 sample. Finally, if a retired CEO worked in a regulated industry, his probability of serving at least one outside directorship fell by 34% in the 1989-1993 sample, and 24% in the 1998-2002 sample.
我分析了1989-1993年和1998-2002年期间退休的首席执行官担任的董事职位。我的研究结果表明,退休ceo在董事会中变得更受欢迎。此外,尽管Brickley、Linck和Coles(1999)发现,退休前会计绩效有助于解释1989-1993年样本中退休首席执行官担任外部董事的数量,但在1998-2002年样本中却并非如此。第三,CEO任职期间公司的股票表现会影响他退休后是否成为该公司的内部董事。在1989-1993年的样本中,股票价格表现变动25%使概率增加11%,在1998-2002年的样本中增加51%。最后,如果一位退休CEO在受监管的行业工作,他担任至少一名外部董事的可能性在1989-1993年的样本中下降了34%,在1998-2002年的样本中下降了24%。
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引用次数: 4
Why Do Budgets Received by State Prosecutors Vary Across Districts in the United States? 为什么美国不同地区的州检察官收到的预算不同?
Manu Raghav
This paper analyzes how the budget allocated to state prosecutors varies from one district to another and the reasons for such variation by using theoretical and empirical methods. The main results of this paper are as follows: Other factors being equal, more politically conservative prosecutorial districts get less budget, this decrease in budget with political conservatism is steeper in more affluent and also in more populous districts, and that there are fixed costs in operating a prosecutor’s office. Other less surprising results are that other factors remaining same, prosecutorial budget increases with the population, the crime rate, and with the affluence of the district.
本文运用理论与实证相结合的方法,分析了地方检察官预算分配的差异及其原因。本文的主要结果如下:在其他因素相同的情况下,政治上保守的检察官区得到的预算更少,在更富裕和人口更多的地区,政治保守的预算减少幅度更大,并且在检察官办公室的运营中存在固定成本。另一个不那么令人惊讶的结果是,在其他因素保持不变的情况下,检察预算随着人口、犯罪率和地区富裕程度的增加而增加。
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引用次数: 3
On the Specification of Propensity Scores: With Applications to the Analysis of Trade Policies 倾向分数的说明:在贸易政策分析中的应用
Daniel L. Millimet, R. Tchernis
The use of propensity score methods for program evaluation with nonexperimental data typically requires that the propensity score be estimated, often with a model whose specification is unknown. Although theoretical results suggest that estimators using more flexible propensity score specifications perform better, this has not filtered into applied research. Here we provide Monte Carlo evidence indicating benefits of overspecifying the propensity score that are robust across a number of different covariate structures and estimators. We illustrate these results with two applications, one assessing the environmental effects of General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade/World Trade Organization membership and the other assessing the impact of adopting the euro on bilateral trade.
使用倾向得分方法对非实验数据进行程序评估通常需要估计倾向得分,通常使用规格未知的模型。虽然理论结果表明,使用更灵活的倾向评分规范的估计器表现更好,但这并没有过滤到应用研究中。在这里,我们提供了蒙特卡罗证据,表明过度指定倾向分数的好处,这些倾向分数在许多不同的协变量结构和估计器中是稳健的。我们通过两个应用来说明这些结果,一个评估关税与贸易总协定/世界贸易组织成员资格对环境的影响,另一个评估采用欧元对双边贸易的影响。
{"title":"On the Specification of Propensity Scores: With Applications to the Analysis of Trade Policies","authors":"Daniel L. Millimet, R. Tchernis","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.918454","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.918454","url":null,"abstract":"The use of propensity score methods for program evaluation with nonexperimental data typically requires that the propensity score be estimated, often with a model whose specification is unknown. Although theoretical results suggest that estimators using more flexible propensity score specifications perform better, this has not filtered into applied research. Here we provide Monte Carlo evidence indicating benefits of overspecifying the propensity score that are robust across a number of different covariate structures and estimators. We illustrate these results with two applications, one assessing the environmental effects of General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade/World Trade Organization membership and the other assessing the impact of adopting the euro on bilateral trade.","PeriodicalId":428258,"journal":{"name":"CAEPR: Center for Applied Economics & Policy Research Working Paper Series","volume":"66 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2006-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134376222","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 86
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CAEPR: Center for Applied Economics & Policy Research Working Paper Series
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