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Student Loans and Social Mobility 学生贷款和社会流动性
Pub Date : 2020-11-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3680159
M. Ebrahimian
Students of poor families invest much less than rich families in college education. To assess the role of financing constraints and subsidy schemes in explaining this gap, I structurally estimate an IO/finance model of college choice in the presence of financing frictions. The estimation uses novel nationally representative data on US high-school and college students. I propose a novel identification strategy that relies on bunching at federal Stafford loan limits and differences between in- and out-of-state tuition. I find that the college investment gap is mainly due to fundamental factors—heterogeneity in preparedness for college and the value-added of college—rather than financing constraints faced by lower-income students. Making public colleges tuition-free would substantially reduce student debt, but it would disproportionately benefit wealthier students, and it would entail more than $15B deadweight loss per year by distorting college choices. Expanding Pell grants, in contrast, would benefit lower-income students at a much lower cost.
贫困家庭的学生在大学教育上的投入比富裕家庭少得多。为了评估融资约束和补贴计划在解释这一差距中的作用,我从结构上估计了存在融资摩擦的大学选择的IO/finance模型。该评估使用了美国高中生和大学生的新颖的全国代表性数据。我提出了一种新的识别策略,它依赖于联邦斯塔福德贷款限额和州内和州外学费之间的差异。我发现,大学投资差距主要是由于基本因素——大学准备的异质性和大学的增值,而不是低收入学生面临的资金限制。让公立大学免学费将大大减少学生债务,但它将不成比例地惠及富裕学生,而且由于扭曲了大学选择,每年将造成超过150亿美元的损失。相比之下,扩大佩尔助学金将以低得多的成本惠及低收入家庭的学生。
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引用次数: 2
How Much Taxes Will Retirees Owe on Their Retirement Income? 退休人员的退休收入要交多少税?
Pub Date : 2020-11-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3786216
Anqi Chen, A. Munnell
To evaluate their retirement resources, households approaching retirement will examine their Social Security statements, defined benefit pensions, defined contribution balances, and other financial assets. However, many households may forget that not all of these resources belong to them; they will need to pay some portion to federal and state government in taxes. It is unclear, however, just how large the tax burden is for the typical retired household and for households with different income levels. This project aims to shed light on the tax burdens that retirees face by estimating lifetime taxes for a group of recently retired households. The project uses data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) linked to administrative earnings to determine Social Security benefits and administrative records on state of residence to estimate state tax liabilities. Income is then projected over the expected retirement of each household. Federal and state taxes, are estimated with TAXSIM, for each household on its reported and projected income.

The paper found that:
• These estimates show that households in the aggregate will have to pay about 6 percent of their income in federal and state income taxes.

• But this liability rests primarily with the top quintile of the income distribution.

• For the lowest four quintiles, taxes are negligible – ranging from 0 percent to 1.9 percent.

• In contrast, the average liability is 11.3 percent for the top quintile, 16.4 percent for the top 5 percent, and 22.7 percent for the top 1 percent.

The policy implications of the findings are:
• Taxes are meaningful for the top quintile, who are mostly married couples with average
combined Social Security benefits of $50,900, 401(k)/IRA balances of $325,400 and financial wealth of $441,400.

• If these retirement and financial assets were fully annuitized, the amount a household would receive is equivalent to about $3,000 a month, and these households face tax
liabilities of about 11 percent.

• Thus, for many households reliant on 401(k)/IRA or financial assets for security in retirement, taxes are an important consideration.
为了评估他们的退休资源,即将退休的家庭将检查他们的社会保障报表、固定收益养老金、固定缴款余额和其他金融资产。然而,许多家庭可能忘记了并非所有这些资源都属于他们;他们需要向联邦和州政府缴纳一部分税款。然而,对于典型的退休家庭和不同收入水平的家庭来说,税收负担到底有多大,目前还不清楚。该项目旨在通过估算最近退休的一组家庭的终身税收,揭示退休人员面临的税收负担。该项目使用来自健康与退休研究(HRS)的与行政收入相关的数据来确定社会保障福利,并使用居住州的行政记录来估计州税收负债。然后根据每个家庭的预期退休年龄来推算收入。联邦税和州税是用TAXSIM根据每个家庭的报告收入和预计收入估算出来的。这篇论文发现:•这些估计表明,总的来说,家庭将不得不将其收入的6%用于联邦和州所得税。•但这种责任主要落在收入分配的前五分之一人群身上。•对于收入最低的五分之四的人来说,税收可以忽略不计——从0%到1.9%不等。•相比之下,前五分之一的平均负债为11.3%,前5%的平均负债为16.4%,前1%的平均负债为22.7%。•税收对收入最高的五分之一人群意义重大,他们大多是已婚夫妇,平均社会保障福利总额为50900美元,401(k)/个人退休账户余额为325400美元,金融财富为441400美元。•如果这些退休和金融资产完全年金化,一个家庭每月将收到的金额相当于3000美元左右,这些家庭将面临约11%的纳税义务。•因此,对于许多依赖401(k)/IRA或金融资产来保障退休的家庭来说,税收是一个重要的考虑因素。
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引用次数: 3
Is Literacy a Multi-dimensional Concept? Some Empirical Evidence 识字是一个多维度的概念吗?一些经验证据
Pub Date : 2020-10-30 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3733207
Georgios A. Panos, T. Kromydas, M. Osborne, R. Wright
Literacy is a multi-dimensional concept. In this chapter, seven potential dimensions of literacy are considered: (1) Mathematical literacy, (2) Foreign language literacy, (3) Digital literacy, (4) Financial literacy, (5) Political literacy, (6) Environmental literacy, and (7) Health literacy. Data from the Glasgow-based Integrated Multimedia City Data (iMCD) project included information that allows for the operationalization of these dimensions. Multiple-regression analysis is used to explore the correlates of these dimensions of literacy. One key finding is that there are gender differences in all the dimensions of literacy. There are large advantages in favour of males with respect to political, digital, financial, and environmental literacy, health and mathematical literacy. The only advantage in the favour of females is foreign language literacy.
识字是一个多维度的概念。在本章中,我们考虑了素养的七个潜在维度:(1)数学素养,(2)外语素养,(3)数字素养,(4)金融素养,(5)政治素养,(6)环境素养,(7)健康素养。来自格拉斯哥综合多媒体城市数据(iMCD)项目的数据包括允许这些维度的操作化的信息。多元回归分析是用来探讨这些方面的读写能力的相关性。一个关键的发现是,在识字的所有方面都存在性别差异。在政治、数字、金融和环境知识、卫生和数学知识方面,男性有很大优势。对女性有利的唯一优势是外语能力。
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引用次数: 1
A Decade of U.S. Natural Disasters and Household Food-at-Home Expenditures and Quality: A Quasi-Experimental Study 十年来美国自然灾害与家庭食品支出和质量:一项准实验研究
Pub Date : 2020-10-23 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3743787
A. Wahdat, M. Delgado
This study exploits spatial and temporal variation in natural disasters in the United States via a generalized differences-in-differences approach to identify the impact of natural disasters on households’ food-at-home (FAH) spending and quality from 2005 to 2016. We use two datasets: (i) the Storm Events Database to identify U.S. counties that experience severe economic losses as a result of droughts, floods, hurricanes, and tornadoes, and (ii) the Nielsen Consumer Panel Data for grocery data. We find that only floods and hurricanes affect FAH spending. Floods (Hurricanes) have a persistent (immediate) effect on FAH spending. On average, highly damaging floods (hurricanes) decrease 15-day FAH spending by about $2 ($7) in 90 days (30 days) after the events. The FAH quality effect of the four natural disasters is either inconsequential or nonexistent. We provide indirect evidence that the FAH spending effect of natural disasters works through both income and price channels. We also find that hurricanes have an anticipation effect on total grocery spending which starts 15 days before the disaster date. Our results are robust to an alternative specification that controls for county-specific linear trends. We add to the growing body of literature on the effects of natural disasters on household finances and financial decisions. Our findings could be of particular interest to post-disaster relief organizations and their programs.
本研究利用2005年至2016年美国自然灾害的时空变化,采用广义差异中的差异方法来确定自然灾害对家庭家庭食品支出和质量的影响。我们使用两个数据集:(i)风暴事件数据库(Storm Events Database)来识别因干旱、洪水、飓风和龙卷风而遭受严重经济损失的美国县,(ii)尼尔森消费者小组数据(Nielsen Consumer Panel Data)用于食品杂货数据。我们发现只有洪水和飓风会影响FAH支出。洪水(飓风)对FAH支出有持续(直接)的影响。平均而言,破坏性很强的洪水(飓风)在事件发生后的90天(30天)内减少了15天的FAH支出约2美元(7美元)。四种自然灾害的FAH质量效应要么无关紧要,要么不存在。我们提供的间接证据表明,自然灾害的FAH支出效应通过收入和价格两个渠道发挥作用。我们还发现,飓风对灾难发生前15天开始的食品杂货总支出有预期效应。我们的结果对于控制特定国家线性趋势的替代规范具有鲁棒性。关于自然灾害对家庭财务和财务决策的影响的文献越来越多,我们又增加了这些文献。我们的研究结果可能对灾后救援组织及其项目特别感兴趣。
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引用次数: 0
Declining Discount Rates in Singapore's Market for Privately Developed Apartments 新加坡私人开发公寓市场折扣率下降
Pub Date : 2020-10-20 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2754429
Eric Fesselmeyer, Haoming Liu, A. Salvo
We examine Singapore's market for new privately developed apartments, which for historical reasons exhibits wide quasi-experimental variation in ownership tenure, ranging from perpetual to multi-century to multi-decade leases. We develop an empirical model in which transaction prices are decomposed into the utility of housing services and a second factor that shifts with asset tenure and the discount rate schedule. We implement the model using nonlinear least squares to directly estimate the discount rate schedule, disciplining it to vary smoothly over time through alternative parametric forms or a trend acceleration penalty. Across different specifications, we estimate discount rates that decline over time and, to accommodate the observed price differences, fall to 0.5-1.5% p.a. by year 400. The finding that households making sizable transactions do not entirely discount benefits that will accrue centuries from today contributes to the empirical literature on discounting and is relevant, with the appropriate risk adjustment, for evaluating climate-change investments.
我们研究了新加坡新私人开发公寓的市场,由于历史原因,其所有权期限表现出广泛的准实验性变化,从永久到几个世纪到几十年的租赁。我们开发了一个经验模型,其中交易价格分解为住房服务的效用和第二个因素,该因素随资产期限和贴现率时间表而变化。我们使用非线性最小二乘来实现模型,直接估计贴现率计划,通过替代参数形式或趋势加速惩罚来训练它随时间平滑变化。在不同的规格中,我们估计贴现率会随着时间的推移而下降,为了适应观察到的价格差异,到400年,贴现率会下降到每年0.5-1.5%。进行大规模交易的家庭并没有完全将从今天开始的几个世纪积累的利益贴现,这一发现有助于贴现的实证文献,并且在适当的风险调整下,与评估气候变化投资相关。
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引用次数: 8
Retirement Tontines: Using a Classical Finance Mechanism as an Alternative Source of Retirement Income 退休年金:使用经典金融机制作为退休收入的另一种来源
Pub Date : 2020-10-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3728262
J. Iwry, Claire Haldeman, W. Gale, David C. John
We explore how a classical finance mechanism — the tontine — could help retirees manage their assets. Tontines are investment pools where members commit funds irrevocably and where the interests of members who die are given to those who survive. Tontines were popular in the U.S. in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, until they were effectively prohibited in response to insurance company mismanagement. Tontine-inspired products are receiving renewed attention around the world as efficient, transparent ways to finance retirement. Unlike fixed income annuities, tontine pooling does not guarantee future payments, but should pay more on average per dollar invested, with less costly regulation.
我们将探讨一种经典的金融机制——信托基金——如何帮助退休人员管理他们的资产。Tontines是一种投资池,成员将不可撤销的资金投入其中,死亡成员的利益将给予幸存者。在19世纪末和20世纪初,Tontines在美国很流行,直到保险公司管理不善才被有效禁止。以通坦为灵感的产品作为一种高效、透明的退休理财方式,在全球重新受到关注。与固定收益年金不同,tontine pooling不能保证未来的收益,但每投资一美元的平均收益应该更高,监管成本也更低。
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引用次数: 1
Financial Well-being among Black and Hispanic Women 黑人和西班牙裔妇女的经济状况
Pub Date : 2020-10-12 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3792558
R. Clark, A. Lusardi, O. Mitchell, Hallie Davis
This paper provides an in-depth examination of the financial well-being Black and Hispanic women and the factors contributing to it, using the 2018 wave of the National Financial Capability Study. We document meaningful differences between Black and Hispanic women versus White women, in that the former are more likely to face economic challenges that depress financial well-being. Controlling for differences in socio-demographic characteristics, there are important differences in the factors that contribute to financial well-being for Black and Hispanic women compared to White women. This includes distinct impacts of education, family structure, employment, and financial literacy. Our results imply that extant financial education programs inadequately address the needs of Black and Hispanic women.
本文利用2018年国家财务能力研究浪潮,对黑人和西班牙裔女性的财务状况及其影响因素进行了深入研究。我们记录了黑人和西班牙裔女性与白人女性之间有意义的差异,因为前者更有可能面临经济挑战,从而降低财务状况。控制社会人口统计学特征的差异,与白人女性相比,黑人和西班牙裔女性的财务状况有重要差异。这包括教育、家庭结构、就业和金融知识的不同影响。我们的研究结果表明,现有的金融教育计划不能充分满足黑人和西班牙裔妇女的需求。
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引用次数: 3
Safeguarding Small Town Purse Strings From Financial Fraud 保护小镇的钱袋免受金融欺诈
Pub Date : 2020-10-09 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3708488
Gary A. Mattson
For small towns three common factors for financial fraud are most apparent: inadequate trained staff, elected official's failure to institute strict audit budgetary controls, and the willingness to appoint an entrusted administrator to assume complete control over the financial managerial process. This is conference paper investigates the cultural-organization factors that allowed for publicly appointed officials to perpetrate such budgetary fraud of public monies and the financial safeguards that may prevent and discourage such fraudulent behavior.
对小城镇来说,造成财务欺诈的三个常见因素最为明显:训练有素的工作人员不足,民选官员未能建立严格的审计预算控制,以及愿意任命一名受托管理人全权控制财务管理过程。这篇会议论文调查了允许政府任命的官员对公共资金进行这种预算欺诈的文化组织因素,以及可能防止和阻止这种欺诈行为的金融保障措施。
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引用次数: 0
Millionaires Speak: What Drives Their Personal Investment Decisions? 百万富翁讲话:是什么推动了他们的个人投资决策?
Pub Date : 2020-10-01 DOI: 10.3386/w27969
Svetlana Bender, James J. Choi, Danielle Dyson, Adriana Z. Robertson
Abstract We survey 2,484 U.S. individuals with at least $1 million of investable assets about how well leading academic theories describe their financial beliefs and personal investment decisions. The wealthy's beliefs about financial markets and the economy are surprisingly similar to those of the average U.S. household, but the wealthy are less driven by discomfort with the market, financial constraints, and labor income considerations. Portfolio equity share is most affected by professional advice, time until retirement, personal experiences, rare disaster risk, and health risk. Concentrated equity holding is most often motivated by belief that the stock has superior risk-adjusted returns. Beliefs about how expected returns vary with stock characteristics frequently differ from historical relationships, and more risk is not always associated with higher expected returns. Active equity fund investment is most motivated by professional advice and the expectation of higher average returns. Berk and Green (2004) rationalize return chasing in the absence of fund performance persistence by positing that past returns reveal managerial skill but there are diminishing returns to scale in active management. Forty-two percent of respondents agree with the first assumption, 33% with the second, and 19% with both.
我们调查了2484名拥有至少100万美元可投资资产的美国人,了解主流学术理论如何描述他们的金融信念和个人投资决策。富人对金融市场和经济的看法与美国普通家庭惊人地相似,但富人对市场、财务约束和劳动收入的担忧程度较低。投资组合股权份额受专业建议、退休时间、个人经历、罕见灾害风险和健康风险的影响最大。股权集中的动机通常是相信股票具有更高的风险调整后回报。人们对预期收益如何随股票特征变化的看法往往与历史关系不同,而且风险越大,预期收益也并不总是越高。积极的股票基金投资最受专业建议和更高平均回报预期的推动。Berk和Green(2004)通过假设过去的回报显示了管理技能,但在主动管理中存在规模递减的回报,在缺乏基金业绩持久性的情况下,将追逐回报合理化。42%的受访者同意第一种假设,33%的人同意第二种假设,19%的人两者都同意。
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引用次数: 11
How Do People Respond to Small Probability Events with Large, Negative Consequences? 人们如何应对具有巨大负面影响的小概率事件?
Pub Date : 2020-10-01 DOI: 10.3386/w27988
M. Eichenbaum, Miguel Godinho de Matos, Francisco Lima, Sergio Rebelo, M. Trabandt
We study how people react to small probability events with large negative consequences using the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic as a natural experiment. Our analysis is based on a unique administrative data set with anonymized monthly expenditures at the individual level. We find that older consumers reduced their spending by more than younger consumers in a way that mirrors the age dependency in COVID-19 case-fatality rates. This differential expenditure reduction is much more prominent for high-contact goods than for low-contact goods and more pronounced in periods with high COVID-19 cases. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that people react to the risk of contracting COVID-19 in a way that is consistent with a canonical model of risk taking.
我们将COVID-19疫情的爆发作为一个自然实验,研究人们如何应对具有重大负面后果的小概率事件。我们的分析是基于一个独特的管理数据集匿名每月支出在个人层面。我们发现,老年消费者比年轻消费者减少的支出更多,这在某种程度上反映了COVID-19病死率的年龄依赖性。与低接触商品相比,高接触商品的差异支出减少更为明显,在COVID-19高病例期更为明显。我们的研究结果与人们对感染COVID-19风险的反应方式与风险承担的规范模型一致的假设是一致的。
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引用次数: 23
期刊
Household Finance eJournal
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