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2008 International Conference on Risk Management & Engineering Management最新文献

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Conflict and Innovation Practice of China Agricultural Chain The Case Study of "Wen's" Cultivation Service Value Chain 中国农业价值链的冲突与创新实践——以“温氏”种植服务价值链为例
Pub Date : 2008-11-04 DOI: 10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.98
Qing Liu, Feng-jun Lu
The traditional agricultural Chain in China faces contradictions and conflicts such as huge risk, high cost, low coordination and bad agility etc. Under the guidance of theories of service profit chain, value chain, supplying chain management and TRIZ, etc., the thesis digs deeply and analyzes the creative practice and effects from cultivation service value chain of Guangdong Wen's food group Co. Ltd. (hereafter referred to as"Wen's") by means of case and proof analysis, which we get the case through investigating and interviewing on the spot in Guangdong. Maybe it can provide reference for Chinese agribusiness, especially agricultural leading enterprises of industrialization to improve the performance, strengthen the comparative advantage and improve the competitiveness.
中国传统农业产业链面临着风险大、成本高、协调性低、敏捷性差等矛盾和冲突。本文在服务利润链、价值链、供应链管理、TRIZ等理论的指导下,通过对广东文氏食品集团有限公司(以下简称“文氏”)进行实地调查和访谈,采用案例分析和实证分析的方法,对广东文氏食品集团有限公司培育服务价值链的创新实践和效果进行了深入挖掘和分析。为我国农业综合企业,特别是农业产业化龙头企业提高绩效,增强比较优势,提高竞争力提供参考。
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引用次数: 3
Optimal Contract under Double-Sided Moral Hazard and Cobb-Douglas Production Technology 双面道德风险与柯布-道格拉斯生产技术下的最优契约
Pub Date : 2008-11-04 DOI: 10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.125
Shulei Sun
This paper develops a kind of generalized double-sided moral hazard model of contract choice with Cobb-Douglas technology in a frame of principal-agent theory. Using this model, we formally prove that the optimal contract maximizes the output net of the disutility of both the parties and carry out some simulations exercise under two special cases which help explain the double-sided moral hazard issues. By focusing on production efficiency, relative importance factor and risk attitude respectively, this paper analyzes the properties of optimal contracts under three cases.
本文在委托代理理论框架下,利用柯布-道格拉斯技术建立了一种契约选择的广义双面道德风险模型。利用该模型,我们正式证明了最优契约使双方负效用的产出净最大化,并在两种特殊情况下进行了一些模拟练习,有助于解释双边道德风险问题。本文分别从生产效率、相对重要因子和风险态度三个方面分析了三种情况下的最优契约的性质。
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引用次数: 1
A Research on Debt Financing Effects Based on the Power Companies 基于电力公司的债务融资效应研究
Pub Date : 2008-11-04 DOI: 10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.5
Tao Li, Jianhui Jian
Through the statistical analysis of 51 electric power listed company, this paper shows the specific industry characteristics in electric power listed company, and makes detailed study on the electric power listed company's effect, tax shield effect and corporate governance effect of debt financing, then use empirical method to prove them. The empirical results show that, for the electric power listed company with good profitability, increasing asset-liability ratio, its debt effect of financing can be improved, vice versa. The paper also shows the size and growth of company have positive correlation with debt financing, which has negative correlation with extent of stock concentration.
本文通过对51家电力上市公司的统计分析,揭示了电力上市公司具体的行业特征,并对电力上市公司债务融资的效应、税盾效应和公司治理效应进行了详细的研究,并用实证方法对其进行了验证。实证结果表明,对于盈利能力较好的电力上市公司,提高资产负债率可以提高其融资的负债效应,反之亦然。公司规模和成长性与债务融资呈正相关,与股权集中度呈负相关。
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引用次数: 1
Empirical Study on Effect of Managerial Discretion on CEO Pay-Performance Sensitivity 管理层自由裁量权对CEO薪酬绩效敏感性影响的实证研究
Pub Date : 2008-11-04 DOI: 10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.23
Changzheng Zhang, Jie Xie
Literatures have discussed the effect of many variables, such as firm size, firm risk and industry features etc., on CEO pay-performance sensitivity. However, it is indicated that the fact of persistent low CEO pay-performance sensitivity is still not explained effectively. From the perspective of internal governance structure, the paper takes managerial discretion, a variable most comprehensively reflecting corporate governance quality, as the critical influencing variable, and focuses on its effect on CEO pay-performance sensitivity. Based on the literature review and theoretical analysis, a hypothesis holding that managerial discretion can manipulate CEO pay-performance sensitivity negatively and significantly is proposed. Finally, by applying the data of 784 Chinese listed firms both of Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2004, the paper empirically proves that managerial discretion can negatively manipulate CEO pay-performance sensitivity significantly and high managerial discretion without effective monitoring is the critical factor of persistent low CEO pay-performance sensitivity.
文献讨论了企业规模、企业风险、行业特征等诸多变量对CEO薪酬绩效敏感性的影响。然而,研究表明,CEO薪酬绩效敏感性持续低的事实仍然没有得到有效的解释。本文从内部治理结构的角度出发,将最全面反映公司治理质量的管理自由裁量权作为关键影响变量,重点研究其对CEO薪酬绩效敏感性的影响。在文献综述和理论分析的基础上,本文提出了管理层自由裁量权对CEO薪酬绩效敏感性具有负向且显著的操纵作用的假设。最后,本文运用2004年上海证券交易所和深圳证券交易所784家中国上市公司的数据,实证证明了管理层自由裁量权对CEO薪酬绩效敏感性具有显著的负向操纵作用,且缺乏有效监控的高管理层自由裁量权是CEO薪酬绩效敏感性持续低的关键因素。
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引用次数: 3
Explanation by Evolutionary Game Theory in Evolvement of Surface Treatment Industry Cluster 表面处理产业集群演化的演化博弈论解释
Pub Date : 2008-11-04 DOI: 10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.12
Zhinan Guo
The surface treatment industry is a main technology of manufacture industry which also is one of the heaviest polluted industries. In the first place, a new view that the success of surface treatment industry cluster evolution depends on economic viability is put forward in this paper. Moreover, the paper makes a brief analysis on the enterprise behavior in the course of the surface treatment industry cluster evolution by adopting the "replicated dynamic model" of quantitative ecology and evolutionary game theory. An evolutionary game model of surface treatment industry cluster evolution is built. And then it proceeds to analyze the dynamic procedure of surface treatment industry cluster evolution in very great detail. Finally, key factors that affect the surface treatment industry cluster evolution are obtained and researched in this paper.
表面处理行业是制造业的主要技术之一,也是污染最严重的行业之一。首先,本文提出了表面处理产业集群进化成功与否取决于经济生存能力的新观点。采用定量生态学的“复制动态模型”和进化博弈论,对表面处理产业集群演化过程中的企业行为进行了简要分析。建立了表面处理产业集群演化的演化博弈模型。然后详细分析了表面处理产业集群演化的动态过程。最后,对影响表面处理产业集群演化的关键因素进行了分析和研究。
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引用次数: 0
Two-Way Coupling Optimization of Power Source Structure Based on the Constraint of SO2 Emission 基于SO2排放约束的电源结构双向耦合优化
Pub Date : 2008-11-04 DOI: 10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.87
Shi Ying-ling, Liu Yuan-yuan, Yang Hong-song
For a long time, China's coal-based energy structure, as well as thermal-power-led power structure, has caused serious environmental pollution problems. As the proportion of Chinapsilas power source structure is not so reasonable, it receives growing attention. To achieve the emissions constraints of major pollutants till the end of Eleventh Five-Year Plan, and optimize China's power structure, the research builds the electricity production and environmental constraints coupling optimization model and proposes the optimal program of China's power structure, accompanied with the analysis of the potential effect and validity of the program. After optimization, the SO2 emissions decreases by almost 22.35, in 2010 compared to 2005. The proportion of thermal power goes down to 72.2, from the former 79.64, through adjustment of the power structure, and the clean energy be 27.8. Through the power structure optimization, the emission quantity of SO2 is greatly decreased and could reach the Chinapsilas reduction target.
长期以来,中国以煤为主的能源结构和以火电为主的电力结构造成了严重的环境污染问题。由于中国太阳能电源结构的比例不太合理,越来越受到人们的关注。为实现“十一五”末主要污染物排放约束,优化中国电力结构,构建了电力生产与环境约束耦合优化模型,提出了中国电力结构优化方案,并对方案的潜在效果和有效性进行了分析。优化后,2010年SO2排放量较2005年减少22.35%。通过电力结构调整,火电比重由原来的79.64降至72.2,清洁能源比重为27.8。通过对动力结构的优化,大大降低了SO2的排放量,达到了中国的减排目标。
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引用次数: 0
Application of Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model Based on Variable Fuzzy Set Method in Construction Enterprises' ERP Project Risk Evaluation 基于变量模糊集法的模糊综合评价模型在建筑企业ERP项目风险评价中的应用
Pub Date : 2008-11-04 DOI: 10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.48
Wu Yunna, Huang Zhijun
Construction Enterprises need to implement ERP projects to constantly improve their competitiveness in the future. However, as having been proved to be an enormously invested and systematically risky project, ERP usually makes construction enterprises fall into "two-difficult" choices. Therefore, a scientific risk evaluation is urgently needed to increase the success rate of ERP project. This paper, after having reviewed a large amount of literatures, establishes a risk evaluation index system for construction enterprisespsila ERP project. A fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model is then proposed. This model, supported by variable fuzzy set method, makes full use of expert experiences and calculates the membership degree in a better way. And then, an actual case is involved in this paper to verify its scientificity and practicality.
未来,建筑企业需要实施ERP项目来不断提高自身的竞争力。然而,ERP已被证明是一个巨大的投资和系统风险的项目,往往使建筑企业陷入“双难”的选择。因此,迫切需要科学的风险评估来提高ERP项目的成功率。本文在查阅大量文献的基础上,建立了建筑企业ERP项目风险评价指标体系。提出了一种模糊综合评价模型。该模型在变量模糊集方法的支持下,充分利用专家经验,较好地计算了隶属度。并通过一个实际案例验证了该方法的科学性和实用性。
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引用次数: 7
The Study on the Loan Risk Pricing of the Bank in Internal Rating-Based Approach 基于内部评级方法的银行贷款风险定价研究
Pub Date : 2008-11-04 DOI: 10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.90
Wang Xiu-hua, Liang Ling
Loan risk pricing system of the bank is the core of interest rate marketization. Realizing independent pricing of loan interest rate will be an inevitable tendency. At present, commercial banks of China have widely developed credit rating system for customers. And it is a question which must be solved urgently that how to carry on risk pricing of loan interest rate and determine market competition strategy based on the system. This paper sets up a loan loss distribution model on the basis of the four assumptive conditions used in Internal Rating-Based approach of the New Basel Capital Accord, and shows that loan risk pricing of banks has "the seesaw effect" according to the same risk-adjusted return on capital of debtors with different credit grades. Namely, banks whose operation cost is low have price advantage on providing loans to debtors with high credit rank and can accordingly take in lower interest rates compared with banks whose operation cost is high. But when providing loans to debtors with low credit rank, they must take in a higher interest rate. The result is very important for commercial banks of China to subdivide the loan market and determine the rational market competitive strategy.
银行贷款风险定价体系是利率市场化的核心。实现贷款利率自主定价将是一个必然趋势。目前,中国的商业银行已经广泛开发了客户信用评级系统。如何在此基础上对贷款利率进行风险定价,确定市场竞争策略,是一个急需解决的问题。本文在新巴塞尔资本协议基于内部评级方法所采用的四个假设条件的基础上,建立了贷款损失分布模型,并证明了不同信用等级的债务人在相同的风险调整资本回报率下,银行的贷款风险定价具有“跷跷板效应”。即运营成本低的银行在向信用等级高的债务人提供贷款方面具有价格优势,因此与运营成本高的银行相比,可以获得更低的利率。但是,如果向信用等级较低的债务人提供贷款,则必须承担较高的利率。研究结果对中国商业银行进行贷款市场细分和制定合理的市场竞争策略具有重要的指导意义。
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引用次数: 0
Coordination Research on Key Parameters in Generation Competition Based on Dynamic Simulation 基于动态仿真的发电竞争关键参数协调研究
Pub Date : 2008-11-04 DOI: 10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.60
Lin Xiao, Jun Dong, Jing Zhang
Power generation adequacy is critical for the reliability of electricity supply service, and therefore its investment draws much attention. This paper builds a dynamic simulation model to solve the setting of two key parameters, the energy price cap and the capacity price in the generation market, and applies this model to various cases to analyze the generation capacity development. Based on the simulation results, this paper analyzes the sensitivity of generation capacity to the key parameters. Furthermore, this paper proposes an evaluation index system for the simulation model, and discusses the correlation between the two key parameters, from the views of reliability and economy. The research shows that there might be potential unmarked misunderstandings in the setting of key parameters, and suggests that under a certain electricity bill for customers, parameter combination of low energy price cap and high capacity price should be made, in order to curb the fluctuation of generation capacity and maintain the system reliability.
发电的充分性是供电服务可靠性的关键,因此其投资备受关注。本文针对发电市场中电价上限和容量价格两个关键参数的设置问题,建立了动态仿真模型,并将该模型应用于各种案例,对发电容量发展进行了分析。根据仿真结果,分析了发电容量对关键参数的敏感性。在此基础上,提出了仿真模型的评价指标体系,并从可靠性和经济性的角度讨论了两个关键参数之间的相关性。研究表明,关键参数的设置可能存在潜在的不明显的误解,建议在一定的用户电费下,采用低电价上限与高容量价格的参数组合,以抑制发电容量波动,维护系统可靠性。
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引用次数: 0
Information Security Risk Assessment Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process and Fuzzy Comprehensive 基于层次分析法和模糊综合的信息安全风险评估
Pub Date : 2008-11-04 DOI: 10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.71
X. Long, Qi Yong, Qianmu Li
Starting with the theory and research status on the information security risk assessment, this paper puts forward information security risk evaluation method based on analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, and solves the difficulty of the qualitative index and quantitative evaluation in the risk assessment process. Finally, it gives examples to prove that this method can be well applied to information security risk assessment.
本文从信息安全风险评估的理论和研究现状入手,提出了基于层次分析法和模糊综合评价的信息安全风险评估方法,解决了风险评估过程中定性指标和定量评价的难点。最后通过实例证明该方法可以很好地应用于信息安全风险评估。
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引用次数: 10
期刊
2008 International Conference on Risk Management & Engineering Management
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