This paper investigates the relationship between Merger and Acquisition (M&A) investment and the financing decisions influenced by market uncertainty. The study has shown that the M&A debt capacity decision influences the M&A investment timing and price decision. We also find out that making the decision of M&A debt capacity is based upon evaluating its influences on the M&A value and bankruptcy risk comprehensively. The M&A debt capacity can only be defined in a certain range.
{"title":"Real Option Study on Merger and Acquisition Investment and Financing Decisions","authors":"Shixia Duan, Wenxiu Hu","doi":"10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.81","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.81","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the relationship between Merger and Acquisition (M&A) investment and the financing decisions influenced by market uncertainty. The study has shown that the M&A debt capacity decision influences the M&A investment timing and price decision. We also find out that making the decision of M&A debt capacity is based upon evaluating its influences on the M&A value and bankruptcy risk comprehensively. The M&A debt capacity can only be defined in a certain range.","PeriodicalId":430801,"journal":{"name":"2008 International Conference on Risk Management & Engineering Management","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117099519","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Regional brands are the senior stage of industrial cluster development as well as the strategic choice for elevating the competitiveness of industrial clusters. The public characteristics of regional brands contribute to the existence of "prisonerpsilas dilemma" in constructing regional brands and the key to the problem is local governments. This paper analyzes the two models in government cultivating regional brands in terms of game model, describing the basic path for governm.ents to participate in constructing regional brands.
{"title":"Analysis of the Game Models between Governments and Enterprises in Cultivating Regional Brands of Industrial Clusters","authors":"Aihua Xiong, Xiuwen Liu","doi":"10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.119","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.119","url":null,"abstract":"Regional brands are the senior stage of industrial cluster development as well as the strategic choice for elevating the competitiveness of industrial clusters. The public characteristics of regional brands contribute to the existence of \"prisonerpsilas dilemma\" in constructing regional brands and the key to the problem is local governments. This paper analyzes the two models in government cultivating regional brands in terms of game model, describing the basic path for governm.ents to participate in constructing regional brands.","PeriodicalId":430801,"journal":{"name":"2008 International Conference on Risk Management & Engineering Management","volume":"38 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129719145","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study uses data envelopment analysis (DEA) to evaluate the operational efficiency of 50 Chinese open-end funds, and makes a comparative analysis of selected fundspsila operational efficiency according to the fund size, investment type and investment style from the perspective of the overall and division. The result showed that bond funds had the maximum and stable average efficiency, hybrid funds made poor efficiency and equity funds ranked between them. Medium-scale funds showed the maximum and stable average operational efficiency among equity funds. Similarly, index funds showed the maximum operational efficiency and the strong continuing growth among the equity funds with different investment styles. Value funds showed the steady performance, while growth funds had significant operational efficiency of growth with greater fluctuation.
{"title":"Chinese Open-End Fund Operational Efficiency Appraisal Using Data Envelopment Analysis","authors":"Guanghui Song, Wenwei Guo","doi":"10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.18","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.18","url":null,"abstract":"This study uses data envelopment analysis (DEA) to evaluate the operational efficiency of 50 Chinese open-end funds, and makes a comparative analysis of selected fundspsila operational efficiency according to the fund size, investment type and investment style from the perspective of the overall and division. The result showed that bond funds had the maximum and stable average efficiency, hybrid funds made poor efficiency and equity funds ranked between them. Medium-scale funds showed the maximum and stable average operational efficiency among equity funds. Similarly, index funds showed the maximum operational efficiency and the strong continuing growth among the equity funds with different investment styles. Value funds showed the steady performance, while growth funds had significant operational efficiency of growth with greater fluctuation.","PeriodicalId":430801,"journal":{"name":"2008 International Conference on Risk Management & Engineering Management","volume":"33 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130361452","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We have developed a model to investigate the technology innovation effects of increased outsourcing of production on a low cost region. Increase in profits and reduction in the resource requirement by adapting related innovation could spur the increase of outsourcing. Firms in lower cost region can develop the capacity of innovation through dasialearning by doingpsila and even investment in R&D during this course. But risks, like information leakage, occur. We have analyzed the risks adopting trusting partners within a system relying on the social control dasias perspective. Finally we have discussed some vital measures that managers can take to attempt to control these risks.
{"title":"Technology Innovation and Risks in Outsourcing","authors":"Y. Yong, Nengsheng Luo, Bigang Hong","doi":"10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.38","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.38","url":null,"abstract":"We have developed a model to investigate the technology innovation effects of increased outsourcing of production on a low cost region. Increase in profits and reduction in the resource requirement by adapting related innovation could spur the increase of outsourcing. Firms in lower cost region can develop the capacity of innovation through dasialearning by doingpsila and even investment in R&D during this course. But risks, like information leakage, occur. We have analyzed the risks adopting trusting partners within a system relying on the social control dasias perspective. Finally we have discussed some vital measures that managers can take to attempt to control these risks.","PeriodicalId":430801,"journal":{"name":"2008 International Conference on Risk Management & Engineering Management","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130386557","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The paper proposes short-term power load forecasting model based on fuzzy RBF neural network, it has overcome the BP algorithm's disadvantage of slow convergence rate and it fall into partially the smallest insufficiency easily. RBF network model in the use of the latest neighborhood clustering algorithm, and the network structure and the parameters are double-adjusted and the training speed and forecast accuracy are improved. The examples also show that the model can improve forecast accuracy effectively, reducing the error of load forecasting, and the inherent defects of BP neural network have been avoid.
{"title":"Short-Term Power Load Forecasting Based on Fuzzy-RBF Neutral Network","authors":"Jia Zheng-yuan, Tian Li","doi":"10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.41","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.41","url":null,"abstract":"The paper proposes short-term power load forecasting model based on fuzzy RBF neural network, it has overcome the BP algorithm's disadvantage of slow convergence rate and it fall into partially the smallest insufficiency easily. RBF network model in the use of the latest neighborhood clustering algorithm, and the network structure and the parameters are double-adjusted and the training speed and forecast accuracy are improved. The examples also show that the model can improve forecast accuracy effectively, reducing the error of load forecasting, and the inherent defects of BP neural network have been avoid.","PeriodicalId":430801,"journal":{"name":"2008 International Conference on Risk Management & Engineering Management","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126776451","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A gray model and regression model based middle and long term load forecasting method using variable weight combination model is proposed. In view of the shortcomings of grey prediction model is not very suitable for middle and long term load forecasting, the equivalent dimensions additional data processing technology is adopted to build the equivalent dimensions additional grey model to improve the model. At the same time, there are some characteristic within mid-long term load forecasting such as the long study time span, the complex factors with large uncertainty which have great influence on load forecasting, and the possible original error occurring in basic data of forecasting, the time-varying weight combinational prediction method is adopted to overcome the shortcomings of the fixed weight, it is more practical. The example results show that this model is applicable in the long-term load forecasting, and it has a high forecasting accuracy.
{"title":"Gray-Regression Variable Weight Combination Model for Load Forecasting","authors":"Zhang Fuwei, Zhou Xuelian","doi":"10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.14","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.14","url":null,"abstract":"A gray model and regression model based middle and long term load forecasting method using variable weight combination model is proposed. In view of the shortcomings of grey prediction model is not very suitable for middle and long term load forecasting, the equivalent dimensions additional data processing technology is adopted to build the equivalent dimensions additional grey model to improve the model. At the same time, there are some characteristic within mid-long term load forecasting such as the long study time span, the complex factors with large uncertainty which have great influence on load forecasting, and the possible original error occurring in basic data of forecasting, the time-varying weight combinational prediction method is adopted to overcome the shortcomings of the fixed weight, it is more practical. The example results show that this model is applicable in the long-term load forecasting, and it has a high forecasting accuracy.","PeriodicalId":430801,"journal":{"name":"2008 International Conference on Risk Management & Engineering Management","volume":"24 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123606527","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Corporate divestiture is the earliest method of contracting capital operation. With the development of capital market, the evaluation of performance of corporate divestiture is becoming more and more important. There are usually two methods to evaluate the performance of divestiture, that is event study approach and accounting index approach, but they both have some shortcomings. Based on the methodology of data envelopment analysis, this article provides a model to evaluate the divestiture performance based on stability index. The article also illustrates the selection of the input and output indexes and the calculation and treatment of data. The method presented in the article can provide comparative important information of the corporate divestiture.
{"title":"The Application of DEA to the Evaluation of Performance of Corporate Divestiture","authors":"Lai Bin-hui, Zhang Qiusheng, Z. Tao, Z. Feng","doi":"10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.83","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.83","url":null,"abstract":"Corporate divestiture is the earliest method of contracting capital operation. With the development of capital market, the evaluation of performance of corporate divestiture is becoming more and more important. There are usually two methods to evaluate the performance of divestiture, that is event study approach and accounting index approach, but they both have some shortcomings. Based on the methodology of data envelopment analysis, this article provides a model to evaluate the divestiture performance based on stability index. The article also illustrates the selection of the input and output indexes and the calculation and treatment of data. The method presented in the article can provide comparative important information of the corporate divestiture.","PeriodicalId":430801,"journal":{"name":"2008 International Conference on Risk Management & Engineering Management","volume":"58 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124537660","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Public service is a special mission, which is to resolve public issues involved the whole community. However, given the goals of building a harmonious society evidence shows that investment on public service in China is still insufficient. This article explores the incentive of local government on public service. Using game-theoretic framework this paper analyzes the possible strategies and payoffs of the three kinds of players in public service game to conclude a Nash equilibrium in the domain of public service. Furthermore this article discusses the harm of this equilibrium to the whole society and the possible methods to resolve this problem, points out that to realize the goals of "development with equity" specific reform should be introduced to break this self-enforcing equilibrium.
{"title":"The Equilibrium of Public Service - An Analysis from the Perspective of Local Government","authors":"Qi Wei, Chen Xiaojian","doi":"10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.39","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.39","url":null,"abstract":"Public service is a special mission, which is to resolve public issues involved the whole community. However, given the goals of building a harmonious society evidence shows that investment on public service in China is still insufficient. This article explores the incentive of local government on public service. Using game-theoretic framework this paper analyzes the possible strategies and payoffs of the three kinds of players in public service game to conclude a Nash equilibrium in the domain of public service. Furthermore this article discusses the harm of this equilibrium to the whole society and the possible methods to resolve this problem, points out that to realize the goals of \"development with equity\" specific reform should be introduced to break this self-enforcing equilibrium.","PeriodicalId":430801,"journal":{"name":"2008 International Conference on Risk Management & Engineering Management","volume":"28 18","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132502763","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
For an engineering project with running income, the result of time-cost trade-off problems (TCTP) concerning construction duration is only partly optimal. More cash flow happens during the running period, and the final goal of clients is to obtain the maximal profit across the lifecycle of engineering projects. In some situations, the cost of compressing construction duration even exceeds the increase of income of running period. Therefore, there should be an optimal scheme with the whole profit maximum. The relationship between the income of running period and the construction duration is analyzed in this paper; with the time value of capital taken into account, the mathematic model of TCTP across the running period is developed. Furthermore, the improved genetic algorithms (GA) proposed in this paper are applied to optimize the model. In the end, an example is given to testify the validity of the TCTP across the running period with the time value of capital considered.
{"title":"Time-Cost Trade-Off Problems of Engineering Project with Running Income","authors":"H. Li, H. Ouyang","doi":"10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.10","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.10","url":null,"abstract":"For an engineering project with running income, the result of time-cost trade-off problems (TCTP) concerning construction duration is only partly optimal. More cash flow happens during the running period, and the final goal of clients is to obtain the maximal profit across the lifecycle of engineering projects. In some situations, the cost of compressing construction duration even exceeds the increase of income of running period. Therefore, there should be an optimal scheme with the whole profit maximum. The relationship between the income of running period and the construction duration is analyzed in this paper; with the time value of capital taken into account, the mathematic model of TCTP across the running period is developed. Furthermore, the improved genetic algorithms (GA) proposed in this paper are applied to optimize the model. In the end, an example is given to testify the validity of the TCTP across the running period with the time value of capital considered.","PeriodicalId":430801,"journal":{"name":"2008 International Conference on Risk Management & Engineering Management","volume":"3 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133943912","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A new triangular fuzzy number critical path method was proposed based on linear programming for solving the uncertain project problem. alpha -cut set was used to transfer the fuzzy number to interval number, and a credibility degree was defined so that the total time range and the different critical paths were given by adjusting the credibility degree. Meanwhile, by analyzing the sensitivity coefficient, the control priorities of activities could be acquired. The result shows that compared with traditional probability methods and other related studies, The method can improve the precision of the project time control.
{"title":"Triangular Fuzzy Number Method for Measuring Risk Element Criticality by Credibility Degree in Project Network","authors":"L. Cunbin, W. Jianjun, Li Li, Liu Xueyan","doi":"10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.49","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.49","url":null,"abstract":"A new triangular fuzzy number critical path method was proposed based on linear programming for solving the uncertain project problem. alpha -cut set was used to transfer the fuzzy number to interval number, and a credibility degree was defined so that the total time range and the different critical paths were given by adjusting the credibility degree. Meanwhile, by analyzing the sensitivity coefficient, the control priorities of activities could be acquired. The result shows that compared with traditional probability methods and other related studies, The method can improve the precision of the project time control.","PeriodicalId":430801,"journal":{"name":"2008 International Conference on Risk Management & Engineering Management","volume":"103 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132261181","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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