This study uses a theoretical method and also mathematical programming (MP) models to assess the polarisation of Macao’s tourism industry in terms of economic realism, with Las Vegas as a reference. The industrial polarization of Macao’s gaming industry has led to a serious imbalance in the development of the city’s industrial structure. The author posits that market structures in the two locations vary in significant ways. Due to diverse market circumstances, including tourist amenities and consumer preferences, push forces are prominent in Macao, whereas pull forces are essential in Las Vegas. As such, Macao cannot and should not endeavour to reach the same level of diversification as Las Vegas due to the possible adverse consequences of being economically non-viable because of differences in market circumstances. These theoretical implications have been validated in reality in recent years. Indeed, the emergence of up-to-date resort assets have reinforced, rather than alleviated, the specialisation of Macao’s hospitality sector. The results suggest that casino tourism in Macao will continue to expand in a polarised fashion. The purpose of this study was to determine whether Macao’s diversification, although politically mandated, is economically realistic. With the implementation of policies such as the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area and the Guangdong–Macao In-Depth Cooperation Zone in Hengqin, it is hoped that the study’s policy relevance will become increasingly apparent in the coming years.
{"title":"Modelling economic structure: the perspective of tourist cities","authors":"Sheng Li, Yechang Yin, Anning Zhang, Jiwei Wu","doi":"10.15611/aoe.2022.2.07","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15611/aoe.2022.2.07","url":null,"abstract":"This study uses a theoretical method and also mathematical programming (MP) models to assess the polarisation of Macao’s tourism industry in terms of economic realism, with Las Vegas as a reference. The industrial polarization of Macao’s gaming industry has led to a serious imbalance in the development of the city’s industrial structure. The author posits that market structures in the two locations vary in significant ways. Due to diverse market circumstances, including tourist amenities and consumer preferences, push forces are prominent in Macao, whereas pull forces are essential in Las Vegas. As such, Macao cannot and should not endeavour to reach the same level of diversification as Las Vegas due to the possible adverse consequences of being economically non-viable because of differences in market circumstances. These theoretical implications have been validated in reality in recent years. Indeed, the emergence of up-to-date resort assets have reinforced, rather than alleviated, the specialisation of Macao’s hospitality sector. The results suggest that casino tourism in Macao will continue to expand in a polarised fashion. The purpose of this study was to determine whether Macao’s diversification, although politically mandated, is economically realistic. With the implementation of policies such as the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area and the Guangdong–Macao In-Depth Cooperation Zone in Hengqin, it is hoped that the study’s policy relevance will become increasingly apparent in the coming years.","PeriodicalId":43088,"journal":{"name":"Argumenta Oeconomica","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67085351","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In this paper, a new approach to mortality forecasting is proposed based on an improved model of the Lee-Carter type. The standard Lee-Carter model and its modified version were introduced and compared using mortality data for Poland and some other European countries. Forecasts of log-central age-specific death rates were then derived and used to predict death probabilities and life expectancies for males and females in Poland, which are the main parameters of the so-called dynamic life tables (also known as mortality tables). The application of the proposed methodology in calculations of the present values of future pension annuities is presented in the article. Scenarios of monthly pensions obtained with the use of dynamic life tables were considered and compared with analogous scenarios based on the static (period) life tables published every year by the Central Statistical Office of Poland.
{"title":"Modification of the Lee-Carter mortality model and its application in the pension scheme","authors":"Agnieszka Rossa","doi":"10.15611/aoe.2022.2.05","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15611/aoe.2022.2.05","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, a new approach to mortality forecasting is proposed based on an improved model of the Lee-Carter type. The standard Lee-Carter model and its modified version were introduced and compared using mortality data for Poland and some other European countries. Forecasts of log-central age-specific death rates were then derived and used to predict death probabilities and life expectancies for males and females in Poland, which are the main parameters of the so-called dynamic life tables (also known as mortality tables). The application of the proposed methodology in calculations of the present values of future pension annuities is presented in the article. Scenarios of monthly pensions obtained with the use of dynamic life tables were considered and compared with analogous scenarios based on the static (period) life tables published every year by the Central Statistical Office of Poland.","PeriodicalId":43088,"journal":{"name":"Argumenta Oeconomica","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67085333","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Are there any negative career consequences for executives and directors working in stigmatized industries?","authors":"Dmytro Osiichuk","doi":"10.15611/aoe.2022.1.05","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15611/aoe.2022.1.05","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":43088,"journal":{"name":"Argumenta Oeconomica","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67085107","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"De jure and de facto democracy in post-socialist countries","authors":"Jacek Lewkowicz, Katarzyna Metelska-Szaniawska","doi":"10.15611/aoe.2022.1.06","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15611/aoe.2022.1.06","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":43088,"journal":{"name":"Argumenta Oeconomica","volume":"120 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67085113","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
I. Gorlov, M. Slozhenkina, O. Kholodov, M. Kholodova, O. Shakhbazova, D. A. Mosolova, M. Poorghasemi, A. Seidavi
This article presents different models useful in identifying the potential for enhancing the performance of agricultural enterprises of various business forms and scales. A clustering method developed by the authors was used to calculate an integral indicator of the development potential of agricultural enterprises within larger organizational and legal units. The model allows enterprises of all structures/scales to emphasize different performance indicators of interest. Moreover, distinctive characteristics of the performance growth potential of various business forms were revealed.
{"title":"A novel method to determine the growth potential of agricultural enterprises in various business plans","authors":"I. Gorlov, M. Slozhenkina, O. Kholodov, M. Kholodova, O. Shakhbazova, D. A. Mosolova, M. Poorghasemi, A. Seidavi","doi":"10.15611/aoe.2022.2.11","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15611/aoe.2022.2.11","url":null,"abstract":"This article presents different models useful in identifying the potential for enhancing the performance of agricultural enterprises of various business forms and scales. A clustering method developed by the authors was used to calculate an integral indicator of the development potential of agricultural enterprises within larger organizational and legal units. The model allows enterprises of all structures/scales to emphasize different performance indicators of interest. Moreover, distinctive characteristics of the performance growth potential of various business forms were revealed.","PeriodicalId":43088,"journal":{"name":"Argumenta Oeconomica","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67085543","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Explaining and forecasting returns and other statistical moments of returns in the stock market have always been critical challenges. Recent studies postulate a relation between investor sentiment and future stock market returns. Supported by evidence from other countries, this study explores the statistical moments of stock returns in Germany and analyses to what extent an explanation can be found through investor sentiment. The recent COVID-19 induced market distortions provide an opportunity to investigate the suitability of predictive sentiment-based analyses. These are presented in this study and appear to be meaningful. The main concept behind the sentiment-based return explanation is built on the assumption that stock returns are linked to investor psychology. This theory often serves as an explanation for market movements that cannot be explained by fundamental data which are directly linked to stocks. However, the extraction of various sentiment proxies for further analysis in statistical models remains challenging. Problems occur because sentiment proxies do not have a constant influence and depend greatly on what currently drives the market. Furthermore, the correlation between sentiment indicators varies over time, especially in times of market distress. In this study, 73 sentiment indicators were examined in the aggregate with regard to the explainability of future stock market return distribution moments such as mean, variance, skewness, and kurtosis. This study examines 169 one-month periods from 2006 to 2020 and shows a potential solution to these challenges by applying a neural network based on long short-term memory (LSTM) neurons. The authors were able to identify a good model fit and reasonable forecasting power, which seem to work particularly well in trend forecasting. The results can be valuable in the area of portfolio risk management.
{"title":"Covid-19 led to price slumps in the German stock market. Is sentiment applicable as an explanatory factor?","authors":"Emile David Hövel, Matthias Gehrke","doi":"10.15611/aoe.2022.1.01","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15611/aoe.2022.1.01","url":null,"abstract":"Explaining and forecasting returns and other statistical moments of returns in the stock market have always been critical challenges. Recent studies postulate a relation between investor sentiment and future stock market returns. Supported by evidence from other countries, this study explores the statistical moments of stock returns in Germany and analyses to what extent an explanation can be found through investor sentiment. The recent COVID-19 induced market distortions provide an opportunity to investigate the suitability of predictive sentiment-based analyses. These are presented in this study and appear to be meaningful. The main concept behind the sentiment-based return explanation is built on the assumption that stock returns are linked to investor psychology. This theory often serves as an explanation for market movements that cannot be explained by fundamental data which are directly linked to stocks. However, the extraction of various sentiment proxies for further analysis in statistical models remains challenging. Problems occur because sentiment proxies do not have a constant influence and depend greatly on what currently drives the market. Furthermore, the correlation between sentiment indicators varies over time, especially in times of market distress. In this study, 73 sentiment indicators were examined in the aggregate with regard to the explainability of future stock market return distribution moments such as mean, variance, skewness, and kurtosis. This study examines 169 one-month periods from 2006 to 2020 and shows a potential solution to these challenges by applying a neural network based on long short-term memory (LSTM) neurons. The authors were able to identify a good model fit and reasonable forecasting power, which seem to work particularly well in trend forecasting. The results can be valuable in the area of portfolio risk management.","PeriodicalId":43088,"journal":{"name":"Argumenta Oeconomica","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67085054","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The malfunction of public authorities in the spatial planning system","authors":"I. Foryś, M. Nowak","doi":"10.15611/aoe.2022.1.12","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15611/aoe.2022.1.12","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":43088,"journal":{"name":"Argumenta Oeconomica","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67085187","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This article extends the previous research on the notion of a standardized call function and how to obtain an approximate model of the Black-Scholes formula via the hyperbolic tangent. Although the Black-Scholes approach is outdated and suffers from many limitations, it is still widely used to derive the implied volatility of options. This is particularly important for traders because it represents the risk of the underlying, and is the main factor in the option price. The approximation error of the suggested solution was estimated and the results compared with the most common methods available in the literature. A new formula was provided to correct some cases of underestimation of implied volatility. Graphic evidence, stress tests and Monte Carlo analysis confirm the quality of the results obtained. Finally, further literature is provided as to why implied volatility is used in decision making.
{"title":"A generalized derivation of the Black-Scholes implied volatility through hyperbolic tangents","authors":"M. Mininni, G. Orlando, Giovanni Tagliatela","doi":"10.15611/aoe.2022.2.02","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15611/aoe.2022.2.02","url":null,"abstract":"This article extends the previous research on the notion of a standardized call function and how to obtain an approximate model of the Black-Scholes formula via the hyperbolic tangent. Although the Black-Scholes approach is outdated and suffers from many limitations, it is still widely used to derive the implied volatility of options. This is particularly important for traders because it represents the risk of the underlying, and is the main factor in the option price. The approximation error of the suggested solution was estimated and the results compared with the most common methods available in the literature. A new formula was provided to correct some cases of underestimation of implied volatility. Graphic evidence, stress tests and Monte Carlo analysis confirm the quality of the results obtained. Finally, further literature is provided as to why implied volatility is used in decision making.","PeriodicalId":43088,"journal":{"name":"Argumenta Oeconomica","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67085246","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Total productivity as the basis for measuring economic efficiency is the initial presumption of this paper, and it is derived from the fact that it has a multiple importance of growing productivity, as an expression of production efficiency. The complex phenomenon of total productivity of factors is sometimes approached too simplistically, and even incorrectly. Productivity is treated as an isolated phenomenon, regardless of the numerous and various factors that condition it and the effects it has on other economic categories. The basis of the theoretical-methodological approach proposed in this paper, was the transcendental logarithmic production function (translog), as a clear interdependence between the maximum output vector and the production factor vector. The paper discusses the methodological basis for decomposition of total productivity growth on technical progress and technological efficiency, and a specification of the deterministic marginal production function. Adequate decomposition enables the more precise identification of the causes of lags in productivity growth. The results of the empirical analysis, through appropriate categorisation, are useful in conducting economic policy because they indicate the direction of activities with the aim of increasing total productivity.
{"title":"A decomposition of the total productivity factor into technical progress and technological efficiency – methodological possibilities","authors":"Nada Trivić, Bojana Todić","doi":"10.15611/aoe.2022.2.03","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15611/aoe.2022.2.03","url":null,"abstract":"Total productivity as the basis for measuring economic efficiency is the initial presumption of this paper, and it is derived from the fact that it has a multiple importance of growing productivity, as an expression of production efficiency. The complex phenomenon of total productivity of factors is sometimes approached too simplistically, and even incorrectly. Productivity is treated as an isolated phenomenon, regardless of the numerous and various factors that condition it and the effects it has on other economic categories. The basis of the theoretical-methodological approach proposed in this paper, was the transcendental logarithmic production function (translog), as a clear interdependence between the maximum output vector and the production factor vector. The paper discusses the methodological basis for decomposition of total productivity growth on technical progress and technological efficiency, and a specification of the deterministic marginal production function. Adequate decomposition enables the more precise identification of the causes of lags in productivity growth. The results of the empirical analysis, through appropriate categorisation, are useful in conducting economic policy because they indicate the direction of activities with the aim of increasing total productivity.","PeriodicalId":43088,"journal":{"name":"Argumenta Oeconomica","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67085290","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This research examines dynamic causality between trade surplus (TS) and exchange rate exposure (ERE), utilizing the bootstrap sub-sample rolling window test. The empirical findings indicate that there is the time-varying bidirectional causality in TS and ERE within certain sub-periods. Specifically, ERE manifests both positive and negative influences on TS. In turn, TS has a positive effect on ERE which proves the export-oriented model proposed by Bodnar et al. (2002). Furthermore, due to the complex changes in Sino-US trade policies during the trade war, ERE is still stimulated under the overall downward trend of TS. This means that the widening TS can inevitably increase ERE, which may cause more trade frictions with the US. By studying the time-varying relation between these two variables, investors can reasonably allocate assets according to the changes of TS and avoid losses caused by market panic. Policy-makers could restrict the abnormal flow of international capital and promote multilateral trade cooperation, especially in times of structural economic change, to reduce trade friction and maintain a relatively stable ERE level.
本研究利用自举子样本滚动窗检验检验贸易顺差与汇率风险之间的动态因果关系。实证研究结果表明，在一定的子周期内，TS和ERE存在时变的双向因果关系。具体来说，ERE对TS既有正向影响，也有负向影响，反过来，TS对ERE有正向影响，这证明了Bodnar et al.(2002)提出的出口导向模型。此外，由于贸易战期间中美贸易政策的复杂变化，在TS整体下降的趋势下，ERE仍然受到刺激，这意味着TS的扩大不可避免地会增加ERE，这可能会导致更多的中美贸易摩擦。通过研究这两个变量之间的时变关系，投资者可以根据TS的变化合理配置资产，避免市场恐慌造成的损失。政策制定者可以限制国际资本的异常流动，促进多边贸易合作，特别是在经济结构变化时期，以减少贸易摩擦，保持相对稳定的经济效益水平。
{"title":"Does a trade surplus raise the exchange rate exposure? A perspective on Sino-US relations","authors":"Chiwei Su, R. Tao, Muhammad Umar, Shiyun. Huang","doi":"10.15611/aoe.2022.2.09","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15611/aoe.2022.2.09","url":null,"abstract":"This research examines dynamic causality between trade surplus (TS) and exchange rate exposure (ERE), utilizing the bootstrap sub-sample rolling window test. The empirical findings indicate that there is the time-varying bidirectional causality in TS and ERE within certain sub-periods. Specifically, ERE manifests both positive and negative influences on TS. In turn, TS has a positive effect on ERE which proves the export-oriented model proposed by Bodnar et al. (2002). Furthermore, due to the complex changes in Sino-US trade policies during the trade war, ERE is still stimulated under the overall downward trend of TS. This means that the widening TS can inevitably increase ERE, which may cause more trade frictions with the US. By studying the time-varying relation between these two variables, investors can reasonably allocate assets according to the changes of TS and avoid losses caused by market panic. Policy-makers could restrict the abnormal flow of international capital and promote multilateral trade cooperation, especially in times of structural economic change, to reduce trade friction and maintain a relatively stable ERE level.","PeriodicalId":43088,"journal":{"name":"Argumenta Oeconomica","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67085489","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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