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Inflation Measurement with Scanner Data and an Ever-Changing Fixed Basket 通货膨胀测量扫描仪数据和不断变化的固定篮子
Pub Date : 2019-10-03 DOI: 10.24187/ecostat.2019.509.1982
C. Tongur
[eng] Statistics Sweden introduced scanner data into parts of the consumer price index several years ago, with the concern to ensure comparability over time and between countries. In this article, we discuss the issue of preserving the fixed basket approach and whether the traditional manual item replacement strategy, with quality and quantity adjustments, is still a relevant method to ensure comparability despite the change in data collection mode and extensiveness of data. Biases from improper quantity adjustments are discussed and illustrated through numeric examples based on real changes in the Swedish market of daily necessity products. Manual adjustments of quality and quantity are implemented by following a small random sample of representative items, i.e. a fixed basket, which therefore leads to imprecision or variance in the consumer price index. This may be a questionable approach given the availability of census-like scanner data, thus the bias-variance trade-off is addressed. The sample size related variance is estimated through a jackknife method and contrasted with quality/quantity adjustments.
几年前,瑞典统计局将扫描数据引入消费者价格指数的部分,以确保不同时期和国家之间的可比性。在本文中,我们讨论了保留固定购物篮方法的问题,以及在数据收集方式和数据广泛性发生变化的情况下,传统的人工物品更换策略,通过调整质量和数量,是否仍然是一种确保可比性的相关方法。通过基于瑞典日常用品市场实际变化的数值例子,讨论和说明了不适当数量调整的偏差。人工调整的质量和数量是按照代表性项目的小样本随机进行的,即固定的篮子,因此导致消费者价格指数的不精确或差异。考虑到类似普查的扫描仪数据的可用性,这可能是一个有问题的方法,因此解决了偏差-方差权衡。通过折刀法估计样本量相关方差,并与质量/数量调整进行对比。
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引用次数: 1
The Impact of the ‘Scellier’ Income Tax Relief on Building Land Prices in France “塞勒”所得税减免对法国建筑地价的影响
Pub Date : 2019-07-11 DOI: 10.24187/ECOSTAT.2019.507D.1976
Pierre-Henri Bono, A. Trannoy
[eng] This study assesses the impact of a tax incentive scheme to boost private rental investment in force in France from 2009 to 2012, called the “Scellier scheme” (after the name of the minister who promoted it), on changes in the price of building land. A difference-indifferences estimation is implemented, drawing on data from the BNDP database covering the period 2004-2010. The definition of the control and treatment groups is based on the boundary between municipalities which are eligible for the Scellier scheme and municipalities which are not. The estimation results suggest that the scheme had an inflationary effect and point to land price capitalisation, with an increase in the price per square metre of around 7 euros in the first year and of 8 to 9 euros over 2009 and 2010, without a significant rise of the phenomenon in the second year, i.e. an increase of 8% in the first year and of 9 to 10% after two years. The regions where the market was the tightest saw the most rapid price increase, particularly the Mediterranean region.
本研究评估了2009年至2012年在法国实施的一项促进私人租赁投资的税收激励计划的影响,该计划被称为“Scellier计划”(以推动该计划的部长的名字命名),该计划对建筑用地价格变化的影响。利用BNDP数据库2004-2010年期间的数据,进行了差异-无差异估计。对照组和治疗组的定义是根据有资格参加Scellier计划的城市和没有资格参加该计划的城市之间的边界确定的。估计结果表明,该计划具有通货膨胀效应,并指向土地价格资本化,第一年每平方米价格增加约7欧元,2009年和2010年增加8至9欧元,第二年没有显着上升的现象,即第一年增加8%,两年后增加9至10%。市场最紧张的地区,特别是地中海地区,价格上涨最快。
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引用次数: 1
Housing Allowances Alone Cannot Prevent Rent Arrears 单靠住房补贴不能防止拖欠房租
Pub Date : 2019-07-11 DOI: 10.24187/ecostat.2019.507d.1974
V. Flambard
[eng] This article examines the extent to which housing allowances ensure continued access to affordable housing in France. According to data from the 2013 Housing Survey (enquete Logement, Insee), the most recent national housing survey available, one in four recipients of housing allowances experienced financial difficulties during a 24‑month period (compared to one in ten non‑recipients). The safety net role of housing allowances is studied through their effect in the event of job loss. The analysis is based on two points of discon­tinuity in terms of income: the eligibility threshold and the ceiling for the maximum rate of allowance. Probit regression results show that recipients of housing allowances are not significantly better protected. Housing allowances also fail to correct inherent disadvantages across households. In fact, the risk of difficulties in paying rent appears to be linked to a combination of factors: low income, unexpected events, certain family composition and places of residence increases the risk.
本文考察了在法国,住房补贴在多大程度上确保人们能够继续获得经济适用房。根据2013年住房调查(enquete Logement, Insee)的数据,可获得的最新全国住房调查显示,四分之一的住房补贴领取者在24个月期间经历了经济困难(相比之下,十分之一的非住房补贴领取者经历了经济困难)。通过住房津贴在失业情况下的影响,研究了住房津贴的安全网作用。分析是根据收入方面的两个不连续点:资格门槛和最高津贴率的上限。Probit回归结果显示,领取住房津贴的人并没有得到明显更好的保障。住房补贴也未能纠正家庭间的固有劣势。事实上,支付租金困难的风险似乎与一系列因素有关:低收入、意外事件、某些家庭组成和居住地增加了风险。
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引用次数: 0
The Distributional Impact of Local Taxation on Households in France 法国地方税收对家庭的分配影响
Pub Date : 2019-07-11 DOI: 10.24187/ECOSTAT.2019.507D.1977
C. Carbonnier
[eng] The distributive profile of local taxation on households results from three main determinants: the tax base (the rental value of occupied or owned properties), the schedule (of exemptions and reductions) and the differences between local rates. The overall contribution of local household taxes to the progressivity of compulsory levies in France is measured and bro­ken down into the three determinants based on the Insee survey on income and living conditions (Statistiques sur les ressources et conditions de vie, or SRCV) at household level and compre­hensive databases at the local authority level. The tax base has a regressive effect, partially offset by the schedule. Local taxes and average income increase with the size of inter‑municipalities: territorial heterogeneity is thus characterised by levels of local tax per capita that tend to increase with per capita income. However, this increase is less than proportional to that of income, gen­erating a ratio of local taxes to income that decreases with the level of average income in the inter‑municipal area.
家庭地方税收的分配概况由三个主要决定因素决定:税基(已占用或拥有的房产的租金价值)、时间表(豁免和减免)和地方税率之间的差异。根据法国国家统计局关于家庭收入和生活条件的调查和地方当局一级的综合数据库,衡量了地方家庭税对法国强制性征税累进性的总体贡献,并将其分解为三个决定因素。税基有一种递减效应,部分被计划所抵消。地方税收和平均收入随着城市间规模的增加而增加:因此,地域异质性的特点是人均地方税收水平往往随着人均收入的增加而增加。然而,这种增长与收入的增长不成比例,导致地方税收与收入的比例随着城市间地区平均收入水平的下降而下降。
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引用次数: 1
Productivity Growth and Resource Reallocation in France: The Process of Creative Destruction 法国的生产力增长和资源再分配:创造性破坏的过程
Pub Date : 2019-07-11 DOI: 10.24187/ECOSTAT.2019.507D.1979
Haithem Ben Hassine
[eng] Based on a large sample of French firms, this article examines the contribution of resource reallocation and of the learning effect to changes in total factor productivity (TFP) before (2000-2007) and after (2008/2009-2012) the 2008 crisis. First, we show that there was very little TFP growth before the crisis and that a fall occurred between 2008 and 2012. Second, we show that the evolution of TFP is highly dependent on the learning effect, as measured here by internal firm performance. Its negative contribution after the crisis is indicative of the difficulties experienced by firms in France in adjusting their production scale rapidly and effectively. However, this effect was reduced by 1) a process of resource reallocation towards the most productive continuing firms, which only really took hold from 2009 onwards, and 2) an earlier Schumpeterian process of creative destruction (cleansing effect), the first signs of which appeared in 2008.
本文以大量法国企业为样本,考察了资源再配置和学习效应对2008年金融危机前(2000-2007年)和后(2008/2009-2012年)全要素生产率变化的贡献。首先,我们表明,危机前全要素生产率几乎没有增长,2008年至2012年期间出现了下降。其次,我们表明TFP的演变高度依赖于学习效应,这是通过企业内部绩效来衡量的。它在危机后的消极贡献表明,法国公司在迅速有效地调整其生产规模方面遇到了困难。然而,这一效应被以下因素削弱了:1)资源重新分配到最具生产力的持续企业的过程,这一过程从2009年开始真正占据主导地位;2)更早的熊彼特创造性破坏过程(清洁效应),其最初迹象出现在2008年。
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引用次数: 2
Private Financing of Long Term Care: Income, Savings and Reverse Mortgages 长期护理的私人融资:收入、储蓄和反向抵押贷款
Pub Date : 2019-07-11 DOI: 10.24187/ECOSTAT.2019.507D.1972
Carole Bonnet, Sandrine Juin, Anne Laferrère
[eng] To what extent would older Europeans be able to pay for their long‑term care needs out of their income and assets if they had no access to informal care or public insurance? To answer this question, we build a microsimulation model and estimate the disability trajectories of those currently aged 65 or older in nine European countries using the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). We focus on the potential role of reverse mortgages in home equity release. According to the simulations, 57% of people 65 and over will experience disability. Conditional on need, care will be required for 4.4 years on average. Of those with no partner, 6% of dependent individuals could pay for their long‑term care out of their income alone, 22% if they used all their savings except their home. The proportion would reach 49% if they took out reverse mortgages on their main residence. However, one quarter would be able to finance less than 10% of their long‑term care expenses.
如果欧洲老年人无法获得非正式护理或公共保险,他们能在多大程度上用自己的收入和资产支付长期护理需求?为了回答这个问题,我们建立了一个微观模拟模型,并利用欧洲健康、老龄化和退休调查(SHARE)估计了9个欧洲国家65岁或以上老年人的残疾轨迹。我们关注的是反向抵押贷款在房屋净值释放中的潜在作用。根据模拟,57%的65岁及以上的人将经历残疾。根据需要,护理平均需要4.4年。在那些没有伴侣的人中,6%的受抚养人可以用自己的收入支付长期护理费用,22%的人如果用了除了房子以外的所有储蓄。如果他们的主要住宅获得反向抵押贷款,这一比例将达到49%。然而,四分之一的人只能支付不到10%的长期护理费用。
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引用次数: 4
Comment – Is Self-Insurance for Long-Term Care Risk a Solution? 评论-长期护理风险的自我保险是一个解决方案吗?
Pub Date : 2019-07-11 DOI: 10.24187/ECOSTAT.2019.507D.1973
J. Wittwer
[eng] The financial risk associated with long‑term care (LTC) is partially insured in France and in all European countries. However, the level of coverage across all countries is significantly lower compared to health risk. Public coverage varies widely from country to country, although in most cases households are left to bear a significant proportion of the cost burden. Since LTC risk occurs at the end of life, the use by households of their financial and housing assets to finance their LTC expenses – in other words, self‑insurance – may appear as one solution. Using data from the SHARE survey, the study by Carole Bonnet, Sandrine Juin and Anne Laferrere aims to address this question head‑on and to assess the extent to which self‑insurance could meet the financing needs of long‑term care in Europe. This comment considers the approach taken by the authors before discussing the implications of their analysis.
在法国和所有欧洲国家,与长期护理(LTC)相关的财务风险都有部分保险。然而,与健康风险相比,所有国家的覆盖水平都要低得多。各国的公共负担范围差别很大,尽管在大多数情况下,家庭承担很大一部分费用负担。由于LTC风险发生在生命结束时,家庭使用他们的金融和住房资产来资助他们的LTC费用-换句话说,自我保险-可能会成为一种解决方案。Carole Bonnet、Sandrine Juin和Anne Laferrere的研究利用SHARE调查的数据,旨在正面解决这个问题,并评估自我保险在多大程度上能够满足欧洲长期护理的资金需求。本评论在讨论其分析的含义之前考虑了作者所采取的方法。
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引用次数: 0
The Perception of Job Insecurity in France: Between Individual Determinants and Managerial Practices 法国人对工作不安全感的看法:个人决定因素与管理实践之间的关系
Pub Date : 2019-07-11 DOI: 10.24187/ECOSTAT.2019.507D.1978
Stéphanie Moullet, Zinaida Salibekyan
[eng] Since the crisis, to what extent is the perception of the risk of job loss affected by the nature of the work environment, the employer’s human resources management policy and its economic situation – or what employees know or perceive about it? Understanding what determines the perception of job insecurity is still rarely the subject of research by labour econo­mists, even though this perception has proven effects, particularly on labour market behaviour and employee health. The analysis is conducted for France, using linked employee‑employer data from the REPONSE 2011 survey. A multilevel model with a random constant is estimated after transforming the reported risk of job loss variable into a continuous “pseudo” variable of perceived insecurity. We show that managerial practices based on communication, promoting discussions between employees and management, as well as employee profit‑sharing schemes or incentive practices, appear to reduce the perception of job insecurity.
自危机以来,人们对失业风险的看法在多大程度上受到工作环境的性质、雇主的人力资源管理政策和经济状况的影响——或者雇员对失业风险的了解或看法?了解是什么决定了对工作不安全感的看法,仍然很少是劳动经济学家的研究主题,尽管这种看法已被证明具有影响,特别是对劳动力市场行为和雇员健康的影响。该分析是针对法国进行的,使用了2011年回应调查中相关的雇员-雇主数据。将报告的失业风险变量转化为感知不安全感的连续“伪”变量后,估计了具有随机常数的多层模型。我们表明,基于沟通的管理实践,促进员工与管理层之间的讨论,以及员工利润分享计划或激励措施,似乎可以减少对工作不安全感的感知。
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引用次数: 3
Can Mobile Phone Data Improve the Measurement of International Tourism in France? 手机数据能改善法国国际旅游的测量吗?
Pub Date : 2019-04-23 DOI: 10.24187/ECOSTAT.2018.505D.1967
G. Cousin, Fabrice Hillaireau
Since July 2015, the Banque de France and the French Ministry for the Economy and Finance have been experimenting with the use of mobile phone data to estimate the number and overnight stays of foreign visitors in France. The purpose of the experiment is to assess the ability of such data to eventually replace, in part or in whole, the traffic data by mode of transport currently used to establish the representativeness of foreign visitor surveys (Enquete aupres des visiteurs venant de l’etrangers or EVE). Mobile phone data have yet to be incorporated into the method used to count tourists. However, estimates based on mobile phone data have a number of benefits in terms of the time required to obtain data, the level of temporal and geographical detail and short-term trend monitoring. This ongoing trial illustrates the difficulty of exploiting original Big Data and demonstrates the importance of drawing on traditional survey data to improve the quality of estimates.
自2015年7月以来,法国央行(Banque de France)和法国经济和财政部(French Ministry for the Economy and Finance)一直在试验使用手机数据来估计外国游客在法国的数量和过夜时间。实验的目的是评估这些数据最终部分或全部取代目前用于确定外国游客调查代表性的交通方式的交通数据的能力(Enquete aupres des visitors venant de l ' strangers或EVE)。手机数据还没有被纳入统计游客人数的方法中。但是,根据移动电话数据作出的估计在获取数据所需的时间、时间和地理细节水平以及短期趋势监测方面有许多好处。这项正在进行的试验说明了利用原始大数据的难度,也证明了利用传统调查数据提高估算质量的重要性。
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引用次数: 4
Introduction – The Contributions of Big Data 导论-大数据的贡献
Pub Date : 2019-04-23 DOI: 10.24187/ECOSTAT.2018.505D.1963
Philippe Tassi
The revolution, which is quite recent, brought about by digital convergence and connected objects, has enabled a homogenisation of data types which would historically have been considered as different, for example : digital data, texts, sound, still images, and moving images. This has encouraged the Big Data phenomenon, the volume of which includes two related parameters : quantity and frequency of acquisition ; quantity can extend as far as exhaustivity and frequency can be up to and including real time. This Special Issue features a series of articles that examine its uses and implications, as well as the challenges faced by statistical production in general, and especially that of official statistics. Just like any innovation, Big Data offer advantages and raise questions. The obvious benefits include “ added” knowledge – a better statistical description of the economy and the society. They are also a driver for development in computer science in the broadest sense, and in applied mathematics. However, we cannot do without some degree of vigilance, since data and how they are used can affect individuals, their freedoms and the preservation of their privacy.
最近由数字融合和连接对象带来的革命使数据类型同质化成为可能,这些数据类型在历史上被认为是不同的,例如:数字数据、文本、声音、静止图像和运动图像。这鼓励了大数据现象,大数据的数量包括两个相关参数:获取的数量和频率;数量可以扩展到穷竭程度,频率可以达到并包括实时。本期特刊刊载一系列文章,探讨统计的用途和影响,以及统计工作,特别是官方统计工作所面临的挑战。就像任何创新一样,大数据带来了优势,也带来了问题。显而易见的好处包括“额外的”知识——对经济和社会的更好的统计描述。它们也是最广泛意义上的计算机科学和应用数学发展的驱动力。然而,我们不能没有一定程度的警惕,因为数据及其使用方式会影响个人、他们的自由和隐私的保护。
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引用次数: 2
期刊
Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics
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