Abstract This paper empirically examines the effect of monetary policy on the government spending multiplier when the nominal interest rate is not bound to zero. We estimate a time-varying coefficient vector autoregressive (TVC-VAR) model using 2000:Q1 to 2019:Q3 quarterly data of Korea, whose policy rate is distant from zero. We find a substantial degree of time variation in the medium-run government spending multipliers, which increase over time and become statistically different from zero throughout the 2010s. Yet the reverse pattern is observed in the policy rate responses to government spending shocks, decreasing gradually until 2008–09 and then stagnating for the subsequent period. Decompositions of the policy rate responses reveal that inflation is an important ingredient in determining the responses of the nominal interest rate to government spending shocks, and thus has a critical impact on the size of government spending multipliers. In particular, our finding underscores a substantial role of the monetary policy stance against inflation in shaping government spending multipliers.
{"title":"Effect of Monetary Policy on Government Spending Multiplier","authors":"Jong-suk Han, Joonyoung Hur","doi":"10.1515/bejm-2020-0229","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/bejm-2020-0229","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper empirically examines the effect of monetary policy on the government spending multiplier when the nominal interest rate is not bound to zero. We estimate a time-varying coefficient vector autoregressive (TVC-VAR) model using 2000:Q1 to 2019:Q3 quarterly data of Korea, whose policy rate is distant from zero. We find a substantial degree of time variation in the medium-run government spending multipliers, which increase over time and become statistically different from zero throughout the 2010s. Yet the reverse pattern is observed in the policy rate responses to government spending shocks, decreasing gradually until 2008–09 and then stagnating for the subsequent period. Decompositions of the policy rate responses reveal that inflation is an important ingredient in determining the responses of the nominal interest rate to government spending shocks, and thus has a critical impact on the size of government spending multipliers. In particular, our finding underscores a substantial role of the monetary policy stance against inflation in shaping government spending multipliers.","PeriodicalId":431854,"journal":{"name":"The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"243 2","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-05-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114041662","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract We revisit three major US recessions through the lens of a standard medium-scale DSGE model (Smets, F., and R. Wouters. 2007. “Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach.” The American Economic Review 97: 586–606) augmented with financial frictions. We first estimate the DSGE model using a Bayesian approach for three alternative periods, each containing a major US recession: the Great Depression, the Stagflation and the Great Recession. Then, we assess the stability of structural parameters, and analyze what frictions were particularly important and what shocks were the main drivers of aggregate fluctuations in each historical period. This exercise can be understood as a test of the standard New-Keynesian DSGE model with financial accelerator in closed economies. We find that the estimated DSGE model is able to provide a sound explanation of all three recessions by closely relating both estimated structural shocks and frictions with well known economic events.
{"title":"Interpreting Structural Shocks and Assessing Their Historical Importance","authors":"L. Herrera, Jesús Vázquez","doi":"10.1515/bejm-2021-0244","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/bejm-2021-0244","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We revisit three major US recessions through the lens of a standard medium-scale DSGE model (Smets, F., and R. Wouters. 2007. “Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach.” The American Economic Review 97: 586–606) augmented with financial frictions. We first estimate the DSGE model using a Bayesian approach for three alternative periods, each containing a major US recession: the Great Depression, the Stagflation and the Great Recession. Then, we assess the stability of structural parameters, and analyze what frictions were particularly important and what shocks were the main drivers of aggregate fluctuations in each historical period. This exercise can be understood as a test of the standard New-Keynesian DSGE model with financial accelerator in closed economies. We find that the estimated DSGE model is able to provide a sound explanation of all three recessions by closely relating both estimated structural shocks and frictions with well known economic events.","PeriodicalId":431854,"journal":{"name":"The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"216 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-04-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122389488","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This paper uses a panel vector autoregressive model to study the differential effects of components of private debt on income growth for a large panel of countries. While household debt growth in a given period generally has a positive impact on income, this effect is much stronger for countries with relatively lower levels of income and household debt-to-GDP ratios. On the other hand, the responsiveness of income growth to an increase in corporate debt varies across countries, with a consistently negative impact in richer and/or more heavily indebted countries. A simple extension of our framework suggests the roles of investment and consumption spending in explaining the varying effects of household and corporate debt on growth. We carry out several exercises to illustrate the robustness of our results.
{"title":"Asymmetric Effects of Private Debt on Income Growth","authors":"Zara Liaqat, Muhammad Farid Ahmed","doi":"10.1515/bejm-2022-0004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/bejm-2022-0004","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper uses a panel vector autoregressive model to study the differential effects of components of private debt on income growth for a large panel of countries. While household debt growth in a given period generally has a positive impact on income, this effect is much stronger for countries with relatively lower levels of income and household debt-to-GDP ratios. On the other hand, the responsiveness of income growth to an increase in corporate debt varies across countries, with a consistently negative impact in richer and/or more heavily indebted countries. A simple extension of our framework suggests the roles of investment and consumption spending in explaining the varying effects of household and corporate debt on growth. We carry out several exercises to illustrate the robustness of our results.","PeriodicalId":431854,"journal":{"name":"The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"8 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-03-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134165647","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This paper investigates the mechanism behind the cyclical movements in the labor income share. We build a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with search and matching frictions to examine the counter-cyclicality and overshooting of the labor income share, following a technology innovation. This model features (i) a time-varying output elasticity of labor, generated from the capital–labor complementarity under a constant-elasticity-of-substitution production function, and (ii) an endogenous markup variation, generated from wage/price rigidity. Through the output elasticity and markup channels, the capital–labor complementarity interacts with wage rigidity, which allows us to produce a satisfactory matching of the amplitude of the labor share overshooting observed in the data. The amplitude of the labor share overshooting is more significant when wages (prices) are more (less) sticky, and when the government’s interest rate rule is more (less) responsive to the deviation in the inflation (output) target.
{"title":"Labor Share Dynamics and Factor Complementarity","authors":"Juin-jen Chang, Chun-Hung Kuo","doi":"10.1515/bejm-2021-0101","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/bejm-2021-0101","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper investigates the mechanism behind the cyclical movements in the labor income share. We build a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with search and matching frictions to examine the counter-cyclicality and overshooting of the labor income share, following a technology innovation. This model features (i) a time-varying output elasticity of labor, generated from the capital–labor complementarity under a constant-elasticity-of-substitution production function, and (ii) an endogenous markup variation, generated from wage/price rigidity. Through the output elasticity and markup channels, the capital–labor complementarity interacts with wage rigidity, which allows us to produce a satisfactory matching of the amplitude of the labor share overshooting observed in the data. The amplitude of the labor share overshooting is more significant when wages (prices) are more (less) sticky, and when the government’s interest rate rule is more (less) responsive to the deviation in the inflation (output) target.","PeriodicalId":431854,"journal":{"name":"The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-03-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123923772","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract In this paper, we argue that macroeconomic uncertainty shocks cause a persistent decline in economic activity, investment in R&D, and total factor productivity. After providing empirical evidence, we build a DSGE model with sticky prices and endogenous growth through investment in R&D. In this framework, uncertainty shocks lead to a short-term fall in demand because of precautionary savings and rising markups. The reduction in the utilised aggregate stock of R&D determines a fall in productivity, which causes a long-term reduction in the main macroeconomic aggregates. When households feature Epstein–Zin preferences, they become averse to these long-term risks affecting their consumption process (long-run risk channel), which severely exacerbates the precautionary savings motive and the overall adverse effects of uncertainty shocks.
{"title":"Uncertainty Shocks, Innovation, and Productivity","authors":"Dario Bonciani, Joonseok Oh","doi":"10.1515/bejm-2021-0074","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/bejm-2021-0074","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In this paper, we argue that macroeconomic uncertainty shocks cause a persistent decline in economic activity, investment in R&D, and total factor productivity. After providing empirical evidence, we build a DSGE model with sticky prices and endogenous growth through investment in R&D. In this framework, uncertainty shocks lead to a short-term fall in demand because of precautionary savings and rising markups. The reduction in the utilised aggregate stock of R&D determines a fall in productivity, which causes a long-term reduction in the main macroeconomic aggregates. When households feature Epstein–Zin preferences, they become averse to these long-term risks affecting their consumption process (long-run risk channel), which severely exacerbates the precautionary savings motive and the overall adverse effects of uncertainty shocks.","PeriodicalId":431854,"journal":{"name":"The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"35 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116382760","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract We study an equilibrium two-sector occupational choice model – agents can be (formal or informal) entrepreneurs or workers. An informal entrepreneur faces taxation determined by the combination of her capital choice and society’s tolerance of informality. Our model is consistent with many empirical findings regarding the informal sector in Brazil, a developing economy with a large informal sector. With a calibrated version of our model, we show that as society’s tolerance of informality decreases, the informal sector employs less capital and labor, and informality decreases. We conduct several counterfactual exercises. Informality is substantially lower in economies that are less tolerant of informal activities, formal entrepreneurs have more access to financial markets, and taxation of output and labor is lower. We extend the model to consider stochastic taxation of informal activities – a higher (average) informal output taxation and its variability reduce informality.
{"title":"Tolerance of Informality and Occupational Choices in a Large Informal Sector Economy","authors":"Marcelo Arbex, M. Corrêa, Marcos R. V. Magalhães","doi":"10.1515/bejm-2021-0076","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/bejm-2021-0076","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We study an equilibrium two-sector occupational choice model – agents can be (formal or informal) entrepreneurs or workers. An informal entrepreneur faces taxation determined by the combination of her capital choice and society’s tolerance of informality. Our model is consistent with many empirical findings regarding the informal sector in Brazil, a developing economy with a large informal sector. With a calibrated version of our model, we show that as society’s tolerance of informality decreases, the informal sector employs less capital and labor, and informality decreases. We conduct several counterfactual exercises. Informality is substantially lower in economies that are less tolerant of informal activities, formal entrepreneurs have more access to financial markets, and taxation of output and labor is lower. We extend the model to consider stochastic taxation of informal activities – a higher (average) informal output taxation and its variability reduce informality.","PeriodicalId":431854,"journal":{"name":"The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"49 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-02-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123922423","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract We quantify the aggregate costs of a discriminatory restriction against women in the access to business resources. To do so, we develop a general equilibrium model with an endogenous size distribution of production units, which are run by either female or male entrepreneurs. In this setting, we introduce a distortion that limits the amount of capital that women can use to run their businesses. We calibrate the model to match data from benchmark economies that exhibit relatively egalitarian labor market results between women and men, except in entrepreneurship. Our counterfactual analyses show that a gender-specific capital constraint causes an output loss between 14% and 28% and a fall in aggregate productivity between 12% and 20%. Furthermore, we show that most of the output loss is accounted for by a fall in total factor productivity. Lastly, we show that the aggregate cost of the distortion is mainly triggered by preventing the most skilled women from running bigger businesses, and not the exit of women from entrepreneurship.
{"title":"Aggregate Costs of a Gender Gap in the Access to Business Resources","authors":"J. González, Francisco Parro","doi":"10.1515/bejm-2021-0125","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/bejm-2021-0125","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We quantify the aggregate costs of a discriminatory restriction against women in the access to business resources. To do so, we develop a general equilibrium model with an endogenous size distribution of production units, which are run by either female or male entrepreneurs. In this setting, we introduce a distortion that limits the amount of capital that women can use to run their businesses. We calibrate the model to match data from benchmark economies that exhibit relatively egalitarian labor market results between women and men, except in entrepreneurship. Our counterfactual analyses show that a gender-specific capital constraint causes an output loss between 14% and 28% and a fall in aggregate productivity between 12% and 20%. Furthermore, we show that most of the output loss is accounted for by a fall in total factor productivity. Lastly, we show that the aggregate cost of the distortion is mainly triggered by preventing the most skilled women from running bigger businesses, and not the exit of women from entrepreneurship.","PeriodicalId":431854,"journal":{"name":"The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"92 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114357621","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Arman Mansoorian, L. Michelis, Constantine Angyridis
Abstract In this paper we extend the Hicksian compensating variation welfare measure in two directions. First, we adjust the size of the compensating variation in order to account for the fact that the compensating transfers will result in changes in output, as well as in prices, because labor and, in dynamic models, capital will adjust in response to these transfers. Second, we extend the measure to a dynamic setting with possibly time non-separable preferences. We find that these considerations become more significant for the welfare cost of higher labor income taxes as one moves from static to dynamic models, to models with time non-separable preferences, and finally to models with uncertainty.
{"title":"A New General Equilibrium Welfare Measure, with Application to Labor Income Taxes","authors":"Arman Mansoorian, L. Michelis, Constantine Angyridis","doi":"10.1515/bejm-2021-0024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/bejm-2021-0024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In this paper we extend the Hicksian compensating variation welfare measure in two directions. First, we adjust the size of the compensating variation in order to account for the fact that the compensating transfers will result in changes in output, as well as in prices, because labor and, in dynamic models, capital will adjust in response to these transfers. Second, we extend the measure to a dynamic setting with possibly time non-separable preferences. We find that these considerations become more significant for the welfare cost of higher labor income taxes as one moves from static to dynamic models, to models with time non-separable preferences, and finally to models with uncertainty.","PeriodicalId":431854,"journal":{"name":"The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"27 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117118331","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.1515/bejm-2022-frontmatter1
{"title":"Frontmatter","authors":"","doi":"10.1515/bejm-2022-frontmatter1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/bejm-2022-frontmatter1","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":431854,"journal":{"name":"The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"2007 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130618164","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This study analytically investigates the effects of pay-as-you-go social security and educational subsidies on the fertility rate, retirement age, and GDP per capita growth rate in an overlapping generations model, where parents invest resources toward their children’s human capital. We find that an old agent retires fully when his or her labor productivity is low and retires later when the labor productivity is high. Under the unique balanced-growth-path (BGP) equilibrium, when an old agent is still engaged in work, tax rates are neutral to the fertility rate, higher tax rates encourage him or her to retire earlier, a higher social security tax rate depresses the GDP per capita growth rate, and a higher tax rate for educational subsidies can accelerate growth. However, when an old agent fully retires, higher tax rates increase the fertility rate, a higher social security tax rate lowers the GDP per capita growth rate, and a higher tax rate for educational subsidies boosts growth. Additionally, if an old agent’s labor productivity increases, the fertility rate also increases. We also conduct numerical simulations and analyze how an old agent’s labor productivity affects the retirement age, fertility rate, and GDP per capita growth rate under the BGP equilibrium.
{"title":"Pay-as-You-Go Social Security and Educational Subsidy in an Overlapping Generations Model with Endogenous Fertility and Endogenous Retirement","authors":"Hung-Ju Chen, K. Miyazaki","doi":"10.1515/bejm-2021-0046","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/bejm-2021-0046","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This study analytically investigates the effects of pay-as-you-go social security and educational subsidies on the fertility rate, retirement age, and GDP per capita growth rate in an overlapping generations model, where parents invest resources toward their children’s human capital. We find that an old agent retires fully when his or her labor productivity is low and retires later when the labor productivity is high. Under the unique balanced-growth-path (BGP) equilibrium, when an old agent is still engaged in work, tax rates are neutral to the fertility rate, higher tax rates encourage him or her to retire earlier, a higher social security tax rate depresses the GDP per capita growth rate, and a higher tax rate for educational subsidies can accelerate growth. However, when an old agent fully retires, higher tax rates increase the fertility rate, a higher social security tax rate lowers the GDP per capita growth rate, and a higher tax rate for educational subsidies boosts growth. Additionally, if an old agent’s labor productivity increases, the fertility rate also increases. We also conduct numerical simulations and analyze how an old agent’s labor productivity affects the retirement age, fertility rate, and GDP per capita growth rate under the BGP equilibrium.","PeriodicalId":431854,"journal":{"name":"The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"22 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-12-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114833041","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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