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Financial deepening in a two-sector endogenous growth model with productivity heterogeneity 具有生产率异质性的两部门内生增长模型中的金融深化
Pub Date : 2019-05-28 DOI: 10.1515/bejm-2019-0039
Q. Nguyen
Abstract This paper studies the effects of financial deepening and fiscal policy on human capital formation, working hours and growth in a model with financial frictions and productivity heterogeneity. The paper first shows that in the range of capital tax rates that attains a balanced growth path, taxation exerts inverted U-shaped effects on growth. The paper then analytically derives and shows that the growth maximizing tax rate and the corresponding growth are increasing concave functions of the financial deepening level. Finally, it is shown that theoretical predictions of the model are in line with data from OECD countries.
摘要本文在一个具有金融摩擦和生产率异质性的模型中,研究了金融深化和财政政策对人力资本形成、工作时间和增长的影响。本文首先表明,在资本税率达到均衡增长路径的范围内,税收对经济增长产生倒u型效应。然后分析推导并证明了增长最大化税率及其对应的增长是金融深化水平的递增凹函数。最后,研究表明,该模型的理论预测与经合组织国家的数据一致。
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引用次数: 2
Uncertainty, Financial Markets, and Monetary Policy over the Last Century 上个世纪的不确定性、金融市场和货币政策
Pub Date : 2019-04-30 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3386824
Sangyup Choi, Chansik Yoon
Abstract What has been the effect of uncertainty shocks in the U.S. economy over the last century? What are the roles of the financial channel and monetary policy channel in propagating uncertainty shocks? Our empirical strategies enable us to distinguish between the effects of uncertainty shocks on key macroeconomic and financial variables transmitted through each channel. A hundred years of data further allow us to answer these questions from a novel historical perspective. This paper finds robust evidence that financial conditions captured by both borrowing costs and the availability of credit have played a crucial role in propagating uncertainty shocks over the last century. However, heightened uncertainty does not necessarily amplify the adverse effect of financial shocks, suggesting an asymmetric interaction between uncertainty and financial shocks. Interestingly, the monetary policy stance seems to play only a minor role in propagating uncertainty shocks, which is in sharp contrast to the recent claim that binding zero-lower-bound amplifies the negative effect of uncertainty shocks. We argue that the contribution of constrained monetary policy to amplifying uncertainty shocks is largely masked by the joint concurrence of binding zero-lower-bound and tightened financial conditions.
在过去的一个世纪里,不确定性冲击对美国经济的影响是什么?金融渠道和货币政策渠道在传播不确定性冲击中的作用是什么?我们的实证策略使我们能够区分不确定性冲击对通过每个渠道传播的关键宏观经济和金融变量的影响。一百年来的数据进一步让我们从一个全新的历史角度来回答这些问题。本文发现强有力的证据表明,在上个世纪,借贷成本和信贷可获得性所反映的金融状况在传播不确定性冲击方面发挥了至关重要的作用。然而,不确定性的增加并不一定会放大金融冲击的不利影响,这表明不确定性与金融冲击之间存在不对称的相互作用。有趣的是,货币政策立场似乎在传播不确定性冲击方面只发挥了很小的作用,这与最近的一种说法形成鲜明对比,即约束性零利率下限放大了不确定性冲击的负面影响。我们认为,受约束的货币政策对放大不确定性冲击的贡献在很大程度上被具有约束力的下限零利率和收紧的金融状况的共同作用所掩盖。
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引用次数: 4
What does a relative price of investment wedge reveal about the role of investment-specific technology? 投资楔形的相对价格揭示了投资专用技术的作用?
Pub Date : 2019-04-17 DOI: 10.1515/bejm-2018-0177
Joël Wagner
Abstract In order to identify investment-specific technology (IST), most DSGE models assume a perfect inverse relationship between IST and the relative price of investment (RPI). This paper explores this relationship and provides evidence that the RPI also responds to changes in market power, which I find constitutes a third of volatility in the RPI. To corroborate this conclusion, two competing models are produced; the first is a two-sector model with a wedge separating the identification of IST with the inverse of the RPI. The RPI wedge is then estimated using Bayesian estimation techniques. A second, richer two-sector model is produced, where firms can vary markups depending on the number of competitors. This paper finds that changes in relative markups are highly correlated with the RPI wedge and help explain the sudden increase in the RPI following the Great Recession in the United States. In addition, with endogenous price markups, non-IST shocks can explain over a third of the volatility observed in the RPI, with marginal efficiency of investment contributing approximately 30 percent of the volatility in the RPI.
摘要为了识别投资特定技术(investment-specific technology, IST),大多数DSGE模型假设IST与相对投资价格(relative price of investment, RPI)呈完全反比关系。本文探讨了这种关系,并提供了证据,证明RPI也会对市场力量的变化做出反应,我发现市场力量构成了RPI波动的三分之一。为了证实这一结论,提出了两个相互竞争的模型;第一个是一个双扇区模型,其中一个楔形将IST的识别与RPI的逆分离。然后使用贝叶斯估计技术估计RPI楔。第二种更丰富的两部门模型产生了,在这种模型中,公司可以根据竞争对手的数量来调整加成。本文发现,相对加价的变化与零售价格指数楔形高度相关,有助于解释美国大衰退后零售价格指数的突然上升。此外,在内生价格加价的情况下,非ist冲击可以解释RPI中观察到的三分之一以上的波动,而投资边际效率对RPI波动的贡献率约为30%。
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引用次数: 0
The effects of monetary policy on input inventories 货币政策对投入库存的影响
Pub Date : 2019-04-08 DOI: 10.1515/bejm-2017-0251
Tiantian Dai, Xiangbo Liu, Wei Sun
Abstract This paper explores both the long-run and short-run effects of monetary policy on input inventories in a search model with monetary propagation and two-stage production. Inventories arise endogenously due to search frictions. In the long run, we analytically show that an increase in the money growth rate has hump-shaped real effects on steady-state input inventory investment, input inventory-to-sales ratio as well as sales. These effects are driven by both the extensive and intensive margins in the finished goods market. We then calibrate the model to the US data to study the short-run effects of monetary policy. We first show that our model can reproduce the stylized facts of input inventories quite well and then find that input inventories amplify aggregate fluctuations over business cycles.
摘要本文在货币传播和两阶段生产的搜索模型中探讨了货币政策对投入库存的长期和短期影响。库存是由于搜索摩擦而内生产生的。从长期来看,我们分析表明,货币增长率的提高对稳态投入库存投资、投入库存与销售之比以及销售额具有驼峰型的实际影响。这些影响是由制成品市场的粗放型和集约型利润驱动的。然后,我们将模型与美国数据进行校准,以研究货币政策的短期影响。我们首先表明,我们的模型可以很好地再现投入库存的风格化事实,然后发现投入库存放大了商业周期中的总波动。
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引用次数: 0
The macroeconomic impact of shocks to bank capital buffers in the Euro Area 冲击对欧元区银行资本缓冲的宏观经济影响
Pub Date : 2019-04-05 DOI: 10.1515/bejm-2018-0009
Derrick Kanngiesser, Reiner Martin, L. Maurin, Diego Moccero
Abstract While the global financial crisis revealed a need for macroprudential policy tools to mitigate the build-up of risk in the financial system, the impact of such policies on the banking sector and the macroeconomy remains largely uncertain. We contribute to the empirical literature that estimates the impact of shocks to bank capital buffers on bank lending and the macroeconomy by estimating a Bayesian VAR model identified with sign restrictions. We use bank-level data for large euro area listed banks to construct an aggregate bank capital buffer for the euro area, which is included as another variable in the model. We estimate three shocks affecting the euro area economy, namely a demand shock, a monetary policy shock and a shock to bank capital buffers. We find that banks curtail lending and reduce their relative exposure to riskier assets in response to a shock to the bank capital buffer. Historical shock decomposition analysis shows that shocks to bank capital buffers have contributed to impair bank lending growth and to widen bank lending spreads, hence depressing economic activity.
虽然全球金融危机表明需要宏观审慎政策工具来减轻金融体系风险的积累,但此类政策对银行业和宏观经济的影响在很大程度上仍不确定。我们通过估计带有符号限制的贝叶斯VAR模型,对银行资本缓冲冲击对银行贷款和宏观经济的影响进行了实证研究。我们使用大型欧元区上市银行的银行级数据来构建欧元区的总银行资本缓冲,这是模型中的另一个变量。我们估计影响欧元区经济的三种冲击,即需求冲击、货币政策冲击和对银行资本缓冲的冲击。我们发现,在银行资本缓冲受到冲击的情况下,银行会缩减贷款并减少对风险资产的相对敞口。历史冲击分解分析表明,对银行资本缓冲的冲击削弱了银行贷款增长,扩大了银行贷款息差,从而抑制了经济活动。
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引用次数: 10
Should individuals migrate before acquiring education or after? A new model of Brain Waste vs. Brain Drain 个人应该在接受教育之前还是之后移民?人才浪费与人才流失的新模式
Pub Date : 2019-03-26 DOI: 10.1515/bejm-2019-0015
Elise S. Brezis
Abstract Should individuals migrate before acquiring education or after? In order to analyze the optimality of the timing of migration, I develop a model of migration, which combines the two migration decisions into a unique model – the decisions about where to get an education and about where to work. The main reason for having a unified model is that investment in human capital cannot be disjoined from the decision about work. This paper shows that brain drain is usually an optimal solution. But, when we incorporate “brain waste” and “return migration”, then it is optimal to migrate when young.
个人应该在接受教育之前还是之后移民?为了分析迁移时机的最优性,我开发了一个迁移模型,它将两种迁移决策结合成一个独特的模型——关于在哪里接受教育和在哪里工作的决策。建立统一模型的主要原因是,人力资本投资不能与工作决策分开。本文表明,人才流失通常是最优解决方案。但是,当我们考虑到“人才浪费”和“返乡”时,那么在年轻时移民是最理想的。
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引用次数: 4
Household borrowing constraints and monetary policy in emerging economies 新兴经济体的家庭借贷限制和货币政策
Pub Date : 2019-02-11 DOI: 10.1515/bejm-2017-0121
G. Arruda, D. C. D. Lima, V. Teles
Abstract Credit markets in emerging economies can be distinguished from those in advanced economies in many respects, including the collateral required for households to borrow. This work proposes a DSGE framework to analyze one peculiarity that characterizes the credit markets of some emerging markets: payroll-deducted personal loans. We add the possibility for households to contract long-term debt and compare two different types of credit constraints with one another, one based on housing and the other based on future income. We estimate the model for Brazil using a Bayesian technique. The model is able to solve a puzzle of the Brazilian economy: responses to monetary shocks at first appear to be strong but dissipate quickly. This occurs because income – and the amount available for loans – responds more rapidly to monetary shocks than housing prices. To smooth consumption, agents (borrowers) compensate for lower income and for borrowing by working more hours to repay loans and erase debt in a shorter time. Therefore, in addition to the income and substitution effects, workers consider the effects on their credit constraints when deciding how much labor to supply, which becomes an additional channel through which financial frictions affect the economy.
新兴经济体的信贷市场在许多方面与发达经济体不同,包括家庭借款所需的抵押品。这项工作提出了一个DSGE框架来分析一些新兴市场信贷市场的一个特点:扣除工资的个人贷款。我们增加了家庭签订长期债务的可能性,并比较了两种不同类型的信贷约束,一种基于住房,另一种基于未来收入。我们使用贝叶斯技术估计巴西的模型。该模型能够解决巴西经济的一个难题:对货币冲击的反应起初似乎很强烈,但很快就会消散。这是因为收入——以及可用于贷款的金额——对货币冲击的反应要比房价快得多。为了使消费平稳,经纪人(借款人)通过工作更长时间来偿还贷款,并在更短的时间内消除债务,从而弥补收入和借款的减少。因此,除了收入和替代效应外,工人在决定提供多少劳动力时还会考虑对其信贷约束的影响,这成为金融摩擦影响经济的另一个渠道。
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引用次数: 1
Is risk shock a key factor driving business cycles in China? 风险冲击是驱动中国经济周期的关键因素吗?
Pub Date : 2019-01-28 DOI: 10.1515/bejm-2017-0010
Zhe Li, Shuixing Luo
Abstract This paper studies the impact of risk shock on the Chinese economy using a New-Keynesian model with financial frictions. The study shows that risk shock is an important driving force for the fluctuations of GDP, investment, capital, credit, and credit spread in China. However, the role of risk shock in driving China’s business cycles is not as crucial as in the US economy (see Christiano, Motto, and Rostagno 2014). There are three main reasons that explain the different performance of risk shocks in China and the US: the volatility of risk shock, the effect of equity shock, and the influence of macroeconomic policies are all different in China and in the US. Our paper contributes to an understanding of the business cycles in China during the period from 1999 to 2015, particularly in comparison with business cycles in the US.
摘要本文运用新凯恩斯主义金融摩擦模型研究风险冲击对中国经济的影响。研究表明,风险冲击是中国GDP、投资、资本、信贷和信用利差波动的重要驱动力。然而,风险冲击在推动中国商业周期中的作用并不像在美国经济中那样重要(见Christiano, Motto, and Rostagno 2014)。中美风险冲击的不同表现主要有三个原因:风险冲击的波动性、股权冲击的效应、宏观经济政策的影响在中美都是不同的。我们的论文有助于理解1999年至2015年期间中国的经济周期,特别是与美国的经济周期进行比较。
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引用次数: 4
Redistributive policies and technology diffusion 再分配政策和技术扩散
Pub Date : 2019-01-28 DOI: 10.1515/bejm-2017-0227
Manuela Magalhães, T. Sequeira
Abstract In this paper we examine the effects of redistributive policies in a transition economy in the presence of technology diffusion on labor and education decisions, and skill-premium. We set a micro-founded dynamic general equilibrium model with a skill-biased technology diffusion, elastic leisure/labor decisions, and investments in education. The economy is populated by two types of households – skilled and unskilled, which become skilled through investments in education. We highlight the importance of the general equilibrium effects of redistributive policies over the leisure/labor and education decisions and wages. Lump-sum transfers reduce investments in education, raising the share of unskilled individuals, decreasing their wage and, raising the skill-premium. Education subsidies raise investments in education, the skills supply, and unskilled wages and reduce the skill-premium during the slowdown of the technology diffusion.
摘要本文研究了在技术扩散存在的转型经济中,再分配政策对劳动和教育决策以及技能溢价的影响。我们建立了一个微观基础的动态一般均衡模型,其中包含技能偏向的技术扩散、弹性闲暇/劳动决策和教育投资。经济由两种类型的家庭组成——熟练和非熟练,这些家庭通过教育投资而变得熟练。我们强调了再分配政策对休闲/劳动和教育决策以及工资的一般均衡效应的重要性。一次性转移支付减少了教育投资,提高了非技术人员的比例,降低了他们的工资,提高了技能溢价。教育补贴增加了教育投资、技能供给和非熟练工资,并在技术扩散放缓期间降低了技能溢价。
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引用次数: 0
The role of IPRs on prices, wages and growth in a two country directed technical change model 在两国导向的技术变革模型中,知识产权对价格、工资和增长的作用
Pub Date : 2019-01-28 DOI: 10.1515/bejm-2017-0070
Óscar Afonso
Abstract We develop a two country, Innovator and Follower, directed technical change model between tradable and nontradable sectors. The Innovator performs innovative R&D. The Follower imitates, in a pre-trade context, and adopts, in a trade scenario, the available technological knowledge. We start by considering the pre-trade context and then we analyze the trade scenario. In both regimes – imitation and adoption – and in BGP, international IPRs protection, R&D productivity, scale-effects intensity and substitutability between sectors determine the stable and unique worldwide economic growth rate and the technological-knowledge bias, which, in turn, affects relative prices and wages. Depending on IPRs protection, imitation and adoption can either amplify or slow down the technological-knowledge bias and thus the real exchange rate, the wage inequality and the worldwide growth rate. For example, under technological-knowledge adoption with positive international IPRs protection and substitutability, wages tend to be higher in the Innovator, technological knowledge and intra-country wage inequality are biased towards the tradable sector, and the real exchange rate accommodates the Balassa-Samuelson proposal.
摘要本文建立了一个两国,创新者和追随者,贸易部门和非贸易部门之间的定向技术变革模型。创新者进行创新研发。跟随者在交易前情境中模仿,在交易情境中采用可用的技术知识。我们首先考虑贸易前的环境,然后分析贸易情景。在这两种制度(模仿和采用)和BGP中,国际知识产权保护、研发生产率、规模效应强度和部门之间的可替代性决定了稳定和独特的全球经济增长率和技术知识偏见,而技术知识偏见反过来又影响相对价格和工资。依靠知识产权保护,模仿和采用可以放大或减缓技术知识偏差,从而放大实际汇率、工资不平等和全球增长率。例如,在采用具有积极国际知识产权保护和可替代性的技术知识的情况下,创新者的工资往往更高,技术知识和国内工资不平等倾向于可贸易部门,实际汇率适应巴拉萨-萨缪尔森建议。
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引用次数: 1
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The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics
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