Abstract Informality is pervasive in many developing countries and it can affect occupational and educational decisions. Cross-country data shows that the rate of entrepreneurship as well as the gap between the skill premium for entrepreneurs and for workers increase with the size of the informal economy. Also, in countries with larger informal sectors the fraction of high-skilled individuals that choose to be entrepreneurs is larger. To explain these facts, I develop a model economy with human capital investments, occupational choice and an informal sector, in which the investment in human capital improves the efficiency of labor as well as managerial skills, and the technology to produce goods exhibits capital-skill complementarity. Model predictions can account for cross-country evidence and also shed light on the mechanisms at work when the level of informality in the economy increases. In particular, a higher level of informality discourages human capital investments for workers while it incentivizes these investments for the case of some managers, mostly informal but talented.
{"title":"Occupational Choice and Investments in Human Capital in Informal Economies","authors":"Lucila Berniell","doi":"10.1515/BEJM-2020-0024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/BEJM-2020-0024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Informality is pervasive in many developing countries and it can affect occupational and educational decisions. Cross-country data shows that the rate of entrepreneurship as well as the gap between the skill premium for entrepreneurs and for workers increase with the size of the informal economy. Also, in countries with larger informal sectors the fraction of high-skilled individuals that choose to be entrepreneurs is larger. To explain these facts, I develop a model economy with human capital investments, occupational choice and an informal sector, in which the investment in human capital improves the efficiency of labor as well as managerial skills, and the technology to produce goods exhibits capital-skill complementarity. Model predictions can account for cross-country evidence and also shed light on the mechanisms at work when the level of informality in the economy increases. In particular, a higher level of informality discourages human capital investments for workers while it incentivizes these investments for the case of some managers, mostly informal but talented.","PeriodicalId":431854,"journal":{"name":"The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133092298","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This study characterizes welfare-enhancing industrial policies in a two-sector-R&D economy that incorporates both vertical and horizontal innovation. It elaborates on current welfare analyses of two-sector-R&D economies along two lines. First, it explores the welfare properties of non-drastic innovations whereas current analyses are confined to drastic innovations. It is shown that while the endogenously chosen size of drastic innovations is insufficient compared to social optimum, the size of non-drastic innovations may be excessive compared with the welfare maximizing one. Second, it explores welfare-enhancing policies designed to restrict innovators’ market power, whereas current policy analyses focus on R&D and market-entry subsidies. The welfare-maximizing policies presented here combine proper limitations on innovators’ market power along with a corresponding production tax (or subsidy). The limitations over innovators’ market power are aimed to support the optimal innovation size, and the corresponding production tax is set to support the optimal product variety span.
{"title":"Optimal Industrial Policies in a Two-Sector-R&D Economy","authors":"G. Sorek","doi":"10.1515/bejm-2019-0197","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/bejm-2019-0197","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This study characterizes welfare-enhancing industrial policies in a two-sector-R&D economy that incorporates both vertical and horizontal innovation. It elaborates on current welfare analyses of two-sector-R&D economies along two lines. First, it explores the welfare properties of non-drastic innovations whereas current analyses are confined to drastic innovations. It is shown that while the endogenously chosen size of drastic innovations is insufficient compared to social optimum, the size of non-drastic innovations may be excessive compared with the welfare maximizing one. Second, it explores welfare-enhancing policies designed to restrict innovators’ market power, whereas current policy analyses focus on R&D and market-entry subsidies. The welfare-maximizing policies presented here combine proper limitations on innovators’ market power along with a corresponding production tax (or subsidy). The limitations over innovators’ market power are aimed to support the optimal innovation size, and the corresponding production tax is set to support the optimal product variety span.","PeriodicalId":431854,"journal":{"name":"The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"9 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117165327","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract We study the interaction between occasionally binding financial constraints in the traditional (retail) banking sector and banking panics in the shadow banking sector. Shadow banking panics occur when retail banks choose not to roll over their lending to shadow banks. Occasionally binding financial constraints of retail banks increase the likelihood of and amplify boom-bust dynamics around such shadow banking panics. The model can quantitatively match the dynamics of macroeconomic and financial variables around the US financial crisis. We quantify the impact of wholesale funding market interventions akin to those implemented by the Federal Reserve in 2008, finding that they reduced the fall in output by about half a percentage point. The timing of this intervention matters: an intervention before the banking panic would have been more effective and might even have avoided the panic.
{"title":"The Macroeconomic Effects of Shadow Banking Panics","authors":"J. Poeschl","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3798390","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3798390","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We study the interaction between occasionally binding financial constraints in the traditional (retail) banking sector and banking panics in the shadow banking sector. Shadow banking panics occur when retail banks choose not to roll over their lending to shadow banks. Occasionally binding financial constraints of retail banks increase the likelihood of and amplify boom-bust dynamics around such shadow banking panics. The model can quantitatively match the dynamics of macroeconomic and financial variables around the US financial crisis. We quantify the impact of wholesale funding market interventions akin to those implemented by the Federal Reserve in 2008, finding that they reduced the fall in output by about half a percentage point. The timing of this intervention matters: an intervention before the banking panic would have been more effective and might even have avoided the panic.","PeriodicalId":431854,"journal":{"name":"The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"147B 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121240138","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Recent monetary policy studies have shown that the trend productivity growth has non-trivial implications for monetary policy. This paper investigates how trend growth alters the effect of model uncertainty on macroeconomic fluctuations by introducing a robust control problem. We show that an increase in trend growth reduces the effect of the central bank’s model uncertainty and, hence, mitigates the large macroeconomic fluctuations. Moreover, the increase in trend growth contributes to bringing the economy into determinacy regions even if larger model uncertainty exists. These results indicate that trend growth contributes to stabilizing the economy in terms of both variance and determinacy when model uncertainty exists.
{"title":"Trend Growth and Robust Monetary Policy","authors":"Kohei Hasui","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3628405","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3628405","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Recent monetary policy studies have shown that the trend productivity growth has non-trivial implications for monetary policy. This paper investigates how trend growth alters the effect of model uncertainty on macroeconomic fluctuations by introducing a robust control problem. We show that an increase in trend growth reduces the effect of the central bank’s model uncertainty and, hence, mitigates the large macroeconomic fluctuations. Moreover, the increase in trend growth contributes to bringing the economy into determinacy regions even if larger model uncertainty exists. These results indicate that trend growth contributes to stabilizing the economy in terms of both variance and determinacy when model uncertainty exists.","PeriodicalId":431854,"journal":{"name":"The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128539638","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-11-01DOI: 10.5089/9781513560434.001
Francesca Caselli, F. Grigoli, D. Sandri
Abstract Using high-frequency proxies for economic activity over a large sample of countries, we show that the economic crisis during the first seven months of the COVID-19 pandemic was only partly due to government lockdowns. Economic activity also contracted severely because of voluntary social distancing in response to higher infections. Furthermore, we show that lockdowns substantially reduced COVID-19 cases, especially if they were introduced early in a country’s epidemic. This implies that, despite involving short-term economic costs, lockdowns may pave the way to a faster recovery by containing the spread of the virus and reducing voluntary social distancing. Finally, we document that lockdowns entail decreasing marginal economic costs but increasing marginal benefits in reducing infections. This suggests that tight short-lived lockdowns are preferable to mild prolonged measures.
{"title":"Protecting Lives and Livelihoods with Early and Tight Lockdowns","authors":"Francesca Caselli, F. Grigoli, D. Sandri","doi":"10.5089/9781513560434.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513560434.001","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Using high-frequency proxies for economic activity over a large sample of countries, we show that the economic crisis during the first seven months of the COVID-19 pandemic was only partly due to government lockdowns. Economic activity also contracted severely because of voluntary social distancing in response to higher infections. Furthermore, we show that lockdowns substantially reduced COVID-19 cases, especially if they were introduced early in a country’s epidemic. This implies that, despite involving short-term economic costs, lockdowns may pave the way to a faster recovery by containing the spread of the virus and reducing voluntary social distancing. Finally, we document that lockdowns entail decreasing marginal economic costs but increasing marginal benefits in reducing infections. This suggests that tight short-lived lockdowns are preferable to mild prolonged measures.","PeriodicalId":431854,"journal":{"name":"The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"39 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114759597","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract In this paper, we first use a structural vector autoregression model to examine whether the US economy responds asymmetrically to expansionary and contractionary monetary policies. The empirical results show that monetary policy has significant asymmetric effects on output and investment. To provide an explanation of such asymmetries, we consider a nonlinear dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model in which collateral constraints are occasionally binding over the business cycle. The nonlinear DSGE model is able to match the empirical findings that macroeconomic aggregates react asymmetrically to positive and negative monetary policy shocks.
{"title":"Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy","authors":"Tzu-Yu Lin","doi":"10.1515/bejm-2020-0084","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/bejm-2020-0084","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In this paper, we first use a structural vector autoregression model to examine whether the US economy responds asymmetrically to expansionary and contractionary monetary policies. The empirical results show that monetary policy has significant asymmetric effects on output and investment. To provide an explanation of such asymmetries, we consider a nonlinear dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model in which collateral constraints are occasionally binding over the business cycle. The nonlinear DSGE model is able to match the empirical findings that macroeconomic aggregates react asymmetrically to positive and negative monetary policy shocks.","PeriodicalId":431854,"journal":{"name":"The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"33 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134122482","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract U.S. banks countercyclically vary the ratio of charge-offs to defaulted loans (COD) and the standard deviation of COD is roughly 15 times that of GDP. We show that canonical financial accelerator models cannot explain these facts, but introducing stochastic default costs and stochastic risk can potentially resolve the discrepancy. Estimating the augmented model and including both surprise and news shocks reveals that default cost news shocks account for most of the variance of COD. Also, in the many model specifications we work with, default cost news shocks always account for at least 20 percent of the variance of investment, while risk news shocks account for a significant portion of the variation in the credit spread, and around 10 percent of the variation in investment growth. Both news shocks also account for a material amount of the variance of hours and output growth.
{"title":"Charge-offs, Defaults and the Financial Accelerator","authors":"Christopher M. Gunn, Alok Johri, M. Letendre","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3711768","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3711768","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract U.S. banks countercyclically vary the ratio of charge-offs to defaulted loans (COD) and the standard deviation of COD is roughly 15 times that of GDP. We show that canonical financial accelerator models cannot explain these facts, but introducing stochastic default costs and stochastic risk can potentially resolve the discrepancy. Estimating the augmented model and including both surprise and news shocks reveals that default cost news shocks account for most of the variance of COD. Also, in the many model specifications we work with, default cost news shocks always account for at least 20 percent of the variance of investment, while risk news shocks account for a significant portion of the variation in the credit spread, and around 10 percent of the variation in investment growth. Both news shocks also account for a material amount of the variance of hours and output growth.","PeriodicalId":431854,"journal":{"name":"The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"17 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115908993","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This paper provides new evidence for cyclicality in the job-search effort of employed workers, on-the-job search (OJS) intensity, in the U.S. using American Time Use Survey and various cyclical indicators. We find that the probability of an employed worker to engage in OJS is statistically significantly countercyclical, while time spent on OJS of an employed job seeker is weakly countercyclical. The fear of job loss, employment uncertainty, and workers’ financial situations is crucial in the job search decision of employed individuals. The results imply that the precautionary motive might be the key driver of the countercyclicality in OJS intensity.
摘要本文利用美国时间使用调查(American Time Use Survey)和各种周期性指标，为美国就业者求职努力、在职求职强度的周期性提供了新的证据。我们发现，就业者参与OJS的概率具有统计学上显著的逆周期，而就业者在OJS上花费的时间具有弱逆周期。对失业、就业不确定性和工人财务状况的恐惧在就业个人的求职决策中是至关重要的。结果表明，预防动机可能是OJS强度反周期的关键驱动因素。
{"title":"The Cyclicality of On-the-Job Search Effort","authors":"Hie Joo Ahn, Ling Shao","doi":"10.1515/bejm-2019-0245","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/bejm-2019-0245","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper provides new evidence for cyclicality in the job-search effort of employed workers, on-the-job search (OJS) intensity, in the U.S. using American Time Use Survey and various cyclical indicators. We find that the probability of an employed worker to engage in OJS is statistically significantly countercyclical, while time spent on OJS of an employed job seeker is weakly countercyclical. The fear of job loss, employment uncertainty, and workers’ financial situations is crucial in the job search decision of employed individuals. The results imply that the precautionary motive might be the key driver of the countercyclicality in OJS intensity.","PeriodicalId":431854,"journal":{"name":"The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"11 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121647076","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This paper develops a simple model that provides a unified explanation for both an increase in below-top skewness and a much larger increase in within-top skewness of wage income distribution. It relies on a single mechanism based on the fixed costs of firm entry. A decrease in entry costs increases the variety of goods/tasks and thus the demand for higher-skilled workers who are more flexible in handling a variety of tasks, which increases both types of skewness. Differences in flexibility are modeled as differences in the fixed labor setup costs required to handle a given number of tasks. Our numerical experiments in a calibrated model show that a decrease in entry costs – entry deregulation – can be a quantitatively important source of both the increase in below-top skewness and the much larger increase in within-top skewness observed in the U.S. Moreover, the experiments imply that the observed differences in entry deregulation can cause significant differences in the top skewness across countries that have similar technological change. This can provide an answer to Piketty and Saez’s (2006) question: Why have top wages surged in English speaking countries in recent decades but not in continental Europe or Japan, which have gone through similar technological change?
{"title":"Entry Costs, Task Variety, and Skill Flexibility: A Simple Theory of (Top) Income Skewness","authors":"Manoj Atolia, Yoshinori Kurokawa","doi":"10.1515/BEJM-2019-0221","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/BEJM-2019-0221","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper develops a simple model that provides a unified explanation for both an increase in below-top skewness and a much larger increase in within-top skewness of wage income distribution. It relies on a single mechanism based on the fixed costs of firm entry. A decrease in entry costs increases the variety of goods/tasks and thus the demand for higher-skilled workers who are more flexible in handling a variety of tasks, which increases both types of skewness. Differences in flexibility are modeled as differences in the fixed labor setup costs required to handle a given number of tasks. Our numerical experiments in a calibrated model show that a decrease in entry costs – entry deregulation – can be a quantitatively important source of both the increase in below-top skewness and the much larger increase in within-top skewness observed in the U.S. Moreover, the experiments imply that the observed differences in entry deregulation can cause significant differences in the top skewness across countries that have similar technological change. This can provide an answer to Piketty and Saez’s (2006) question: Why have top wages surged in English speaking countries in recent decades but not in continental Europe or Japan, which have gone through similar technological change?","PeriodicalId":431854,"journal":{"name":"The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"48 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124711465","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Between the months of February and April of 2020, average weekly market hours in the U.S. dropped by 6.25, meanwhile 36% of workers reported switching to remote work arrangements. In this paper, we examine implications of these changes for the time allocation of different households, and on aggregate. We estimate that home production activity increased by 2.65 h a week, or 42.4% of lost market hours, due to the drop in market work and rise in remote work. The monthly value of home production increased by $39.65 billion – that is 13.55% of the concurrent $292.61 billion drop in monthly GDP. Although market hours declined the most for single, less educated individuals, the lost market hours were absorbed into home production the most by married individuals with children. Adding on the impact of school closures, our estimate of weekly home production hours increases by as much as 4.92 h. The increase in the value of monthly home production between February and April updates to $73.57 billion. We also report the estimated impact of labor markets and telecommuting on home production for each month in 2020.
{"title":"Home Production and Leisure during the COVID-19 Recession","authors":"Oksana Leukhina, Zhixiu Yu","doi":"10.20955/wp.2020.025","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20955/wp.2020.025","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Between the months of February and April of 2020, average weekly market hours in the U.S. dropped by 6.25, meanwhile 36% of workers reported switching to remote work arrangements. In this paper, we examine implications of these changes for the time allocation of different households, and on aggregate. We estimate that home production activity increased by 2.65 h a week, or 42.4% of lost market hours, due to the drop in market work and rise in remote work. The monthly value of home production increased by $39.65 billion – that is 13.55% of the concurrent $292.61 billion drop in monthly GDP. Although market hours declined the most for single, less educated individuals, the lost market hours were absorbed into home production the most by married individuals with children. Adding on the impact of school closures, our estimate of weekly home production hours increases by as much as 4.92 h. The increase in the value of monthly home production between February and April updates to $73.57 billion. We also report the estimated impact of labor markets and telecommuting on home production for each month in 2020.","PeriodicalId":431854,"journal":{"name":"The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121832017","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
京公网安备 11010802042870号
京ICP备2023020795号-1
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：