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Contagion risk in Equity Markets during Financial Crises and COVID-19: A comparison of developed and emerging markets 金融危机和新冠肺炎期间股票市场的传染风险:发达市场和新兴市场的比较
IF 0.6 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-12-16 DOI: 10.47743/saeb-2022-0026
P. Muzindutsi, Akita Sheodin, Joshua Moodley, Khmera Moodley, Mayuri Naidoo, Purusha Ramjiyavan, Rinay Moonsamy, Tiffany Atalia Pillay, Fikile Dube
This study compared the impact of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the COVID-19 pandemic on financial market contagion between developed and emerging markets. A DCC-GARCH model was employed to test the contagion effects of developed and emerging markets using weekly returns for the S&P 500 (US), FTSE-100 (UK), ASX 200 (AUS), IBOVESPA (BRA), BSE SENSEX (IND) and BVM IPC (MEX). The results showed that there was a persuasive case made for the integration of markets for efficient financial systems. However, a crisis occurring in one market holds significant repercussions for any of the connected markets. The findings show that the COVID-19 pandemic affected all the markets more severely than the GFC and contagion effects were more pronounced in emerging markets than in developed markets during the GFC and the pandemic. Consequently, policy makers in emerging markets should implement policies that reduce external vulnerabilities and improve their markets’ stability to reduce the impact of contagion.
本研究比较了全球金融危机(GFC)和新冠肺炎疫情对发达市场和新兴市场之间金融市场传染的影响。DCC-GARCH模型用于测试发达市场和新兴市场的传染效应,使用标准普尔500指数(美国)、富时100指数(英国)、澳交所200指数(澳大利亚)、IBOVESPA指数(巴西)、BSE SENSEX指数(印度)和BVM IPC指数(墨西哥)的周回报率。结果表明,有一个有说服力的案例表明,整合市场以建立有效的金融系统。然而,一个市场发生的危机对任何相关市场都会产生重大影响。研究结果显示,新冠肺炎疫情对所有市场的影响比全球金融危机更严重,在全球金融危机和疫情期间,新兴市场的传染效应比发达市场更明显。因此,新兴市场的政策制定者应该实施减少外部脆弱性和提高市场稳定性的政策,以减少传染的影响。
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引用次数: 1
Do European, Middle-East and Asian Stock Markets Impact on Indian Stock Market? A Case Study Based on NIFTY Stock Index Forecasting 欧洲、中东和亚洲股市对印度股市有影响吗?基于NIFTY股指预测的案例研究
IF 0.6 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-12-16 DOI: 10.47743/saeb-2022-0028
Jatin Trivedi, C. Spulbar, Ramona Birau, A. Mehdiabadi, Ion Florescu
This paper estimates NIFTY index from Indian stock market by considering a cluster of MSCI European, Middle East and Asian stock market indices. In the forecasting process, we obtain group of independent variables to test its relative impact over dependent variable (NIFTY) considering a sample size of daily observations from January 2000 to December 2021 abstracted from Bloomberg. We run OLS regression, Quantile estimations with additional parameter of VIF and BKW. We found significant impact association with China (Asian index) and Saudi Arabia (Middle East index) during the forecasting process compared to rest of sample indices that exceed unexpectedly out of VIF limits. Further, we recorded strong association of independent variables despite of statistical significance (<1%) in OLS regression estimation.
本文通过考虑MSCI欧洲、中东和亚洲股市指数的聚类,从印度股市估计NIFTY指数。在预测过程中,考虑到从彭博社提取的2000年1月至2021年12月的每日观测样本量,我们获得了一组自变量来测试其对因变量(NIFTY)的相对影响。我们使用额外的VIF和BKW参数进行OLS回归,Quantile估计。我们发现,在预测过程中,与其他意外超出VIF限制的样本指数相比,中国(亚洲指数)和沙特阿拉伯(中东指数)存在显著的影响关联。此外,尽管OLS回归估计具有统计学意义(<1%),但我们记录了自变量之间的强相关性。
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引用次数: 0
Green Entrepreneurship and Digital Transformation of SMEs in Food Industry: Α Bibliometric Analysis 绿色创业与食品行业中小企业数字化转型——文献计量分析
IF 0.6 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-12-15 DOI: 10.47743/saeb-2022-0027
George Sklavos, M. Duquenne, G. Theodossiou
The emerging of green entrepreneurship and digital transformation improve businesses’ efficiency and meet consumers’ demand for environmentally sustainable products, reducing the environmental footprint and strengthening corporate responsibility to society. Moreover, the COVID-19 pandemic has become a key event changing our lives while businesses have to change their daily operations and working from home has become the norm. So, it is possible to say that business activities and business models have undergone some form of digital transformation due to the COVID-19 pandemic. In Greece, the Food Industry can be characterized as one of the most dynamic and competitive economic sectors which is distinguished for its growth prospects. The aim of this study is twofold: (i) to investigate the impact of green entrepreneurship and digital transformation into the performance of Greek SMEs in the food sector and (ii) to highlight the new trends integrated in new business models in the sector. To meet the research purpose, a bibliometric and co-citation analysis was used based on the R package and graphene as a subject of research for bibliometric analysis. The knowledge gained in this article shows how the digital transformation changed the functioning of the companies in the food industry. The conclusions of this article are mainly for the enterprises that are considering their own digitalization, which contributes to the long-term sustainability of them.
绿色创业和数字化转型的兴起提高了企业的效率,满足了消费者对环境可持续产品的需求,减少了环境足迹,加强了企业对社会的责任。此外,新冠肺炎疫情已成为改变我们生活的重大事件,企业不得不改变日常运营方式,在家办公已成为常态。因此,可以说,由于COVID-19大流行,商业活动和商业模式经历了某种形式的数字化转型。在希腊,食品工业可以被描述为最具活力和竞争力的经济部门之一,以其增长前景而闻名。本研究的目的是双重的:(i)调查绿色创业和数字化转型对希腊食品行业中小企业绩效的影响;(ii)突出该行业新商业模式中整合的新趋势。为了达到研究目的,我们采用了基于R软件包的文献计量和共被引分析,并将石墨烯作为文献计量分析的研究对象。本文中获得的知识显示了数字化转型如何改变食品行业公司的运作。本文的结论主要针对正在考虑自身数字化的企业,有利于企业的长期可持续发展。
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引用次数: 0
Comparing Decision Trees and Association Rules for Stock Market Expectations in BIST100 and BIST30 BIST100和BIST30中股票市场预期决策树和关联规则的比较
IF 0.6 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-09-21 DOI: 10.47743/saeb-2022-0024
Görkem Ataman, Serpil Kahraman
With the increased financial fragility, methods have been needed to predict financial data effectively. In this study, two leading data mining technologies, classification analysis and association rule mining, are implemented for modeling potentially successful and risky stocks on the BIST 30 index and BIST 100 Index based on the key variables of index name, index value, and stock price. Classification and Regression Tree (CART) is used for classification, and Apriori is applied for association analysis. The study data set covered monthly closing values during 2013-2019. The Apriori algorithm also obtained almost all of the classification rules generated with the CART algorithm. Validated by two promising data mining techniques, proposed rules guide decision-makers in their investment decisions. By providing early warning signals of risky stocks, these rules can be used to minimize risk levels and protect decision-makers from making risky decisions.
随着金融脆弱性的增加,需要有效预测金融数据的方法。在本研究中,基于指数名称、指数价值和股价等关键变量,实现了两种领先的数据挖掘技术,即分类分析和关联规则挖掘,用于在BIST 30指数和BIST 100指数上对潜在成功和风险股票进行建模。分类和回归树(CART)用于分类,Apriori用于关联分析。研究数据集涵盖了2013-2019年的月度收盘值。Apriori算法还获得了CART算法生成的几乎所有分类规则。通过两种有前景的数据挖掘技术验证,所提出的规则指导决策者的投资决策。通过提供风险股票的预警信号,这些规则可以用来最大限度地降低风险水平,保护决策者不做出风险决策。
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引用次数: 0
Revisiting Interest Rate – Exchange Rate Dynamics in South Africa: How Relevant is Pandemic Uncertainties? 重新审视南非的利率-汇率动态:流行病的不确定性有多大关系?
IF 0.6 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-09-16 DOI: 10.47743/saeb-2022-0023
P. Mkhosi, I. Fasanya
This paper revisits the link between exchange rate and interest rate considering the role of uncertainty due to infectious diseases in the South African economy using monthly data from January 1985 to August 2020 within a nonparametric framework. First, we examine the relationship between the exchange-interest rates hypothesis and observe a significant positive link, especially during the pandemic. Second, we analyze the volatility spillover among exchange rates, interest rates and other macroeconomic fundamentals and find a strong connection with the interest rate being net receivers of shocks. Third, with evidence of nonlinearity in the variables, the nonparametric quantiles-based causality test shows that the spillover for each asset is driven by pandemic uncertainty around the median quantiles. Conclusively, this suggests that the role of global health news in influencing the South African financial cycle which consequently leads to capital flows and movements in the prices of assets across financial markets cannot be downplayed. Relevant policy implications can be drawn from these findings.
本文在非参数框架内使用1985年1月至2020年8月的月度数据,考虑传染性疾病在南非经济中的不确定性作用,重新审视了汇率与利率之间的联系。首先,我们考察了汇率假设之间的关系,并观察到显著的正相关,特别是在大流行期间。其次,我们分析了汇率、利率和其他宏观经济基本面之间的波动溢出效应,并发现利率是冲击的净接受者。第三,由于变量存在非线性,基于非参数分位数的因果检验表明,每种资产的溢出是由中位数附近的大流行不确定性驱动的。最后,这表明全球卫生新闻在影响南非金融周期方面的作用不可低估,从而导致整个金融市场的资本流动和资产价格变动。从这些发现中可以得出相关的政策含义。
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引用次数: 0
The Effect of Fiscal Policy Asymmetries on Business Cycle Correlation in the EU 欧盟财政政策不对称对经济周期相关性的影响
IF 0.6 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-09-12 DOI: 10.47743/saeb-2022-0022
Ladislava Issever Grochová, Petr Rozmahel, Marek Litzman
This paper reviews the role of bilateral fiscal differences, fiscal indiscipline and their joint effects in particular in determining business cycle synchronicity in the European Union (EU). Panel data comprising 28 EU members from 1999–2019 are used in the analysis. The two-step Instrumental Variable–Generalized Method of Moments (IV–GMM) is employed to estimate the effects of examined fiscal measures on business cycle correlations. The study finds that fiscal indiscipline doubles the negative effect of increasing fiscal differences on business cycle correlation compared to fiscally disciplined country-pairs. The findings suggest reopening the debate on fiscal policy coordination across Europe.
本文回顾了双边财政差异、财政纪律及其联合效应,特别是在决定欧盟商业周期同步性方面的作用。分析中使用了包括1999-2009年28个欧盟成员国的小组数据。采用两步工具变量-广义矩量法(IV–GMM)来估计所检查的财政措施对商业周期相关性的影响。研究发现,与财政有纪律的国家对相比,财政无纪律使财政差异增加对商业周期相关性的负面影响加倍。调查结果表明,重新开启了整个欧洲关于财政政策协调的辩论。
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引用次数: 0
The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Cryptocurrency Market COVID-19大流行对加密货币市场的影响
IF 0.6 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-09-12 DOI: 10.47743/saeb-2022-0014
Nidhal Mgadmi, A. Béjaoui, Wajdi Moussa, Tarek Sadraoui
The purpose of our paper is to analyze the main factors which influence fiscal balance’s evolution and thereby identify solutions for configuring a sustainable fiscal policy. We have selected as independent variables some of the main macroeconomic measures, respectively public debt, unemployment rate, economy openness degree, population, consumer goods’ price index, current account balance, direct foreign investments and economic growth rate. Our research method uses two econometric models applied on a sample of 22 countries, respectively 14 developed and 8 emergent. The first model is a multiple regression and studies the connection between the fiscal balance and selected independent variables, whereas the second one uses first order differences and introduces economic freedom as a dummy variable to catch the dynamic influences of selected measures upon fiscal result. The time interval considered was 1999-2013. The results generated using the two models revealed that public debt, current account balance and economic growth significantly influence the fiscal balance. As a consequence, the governments need to plan and implement a fiscal policy which resonates with economy priorities and the phase of the economic cycle, as well as ensure a proper management of the public debt, stimulate sustainable economic growth and employment.
本文的目的是分析影响财政平衡演变的主要因素,从而确定配置可持续财政政策的解决方案。我们选择了一些主要的宏观经济指标作为自变量,分别是公共债务、失业率、经济开放程度、人口、消费品价格指数、经常账户余额、外国直接投资和经济增长率。我们的研究方法使用了两个计量经济学模型,分别应用于22个国家的样本,分别是14个发达国家和8个新兴国家。第一个模型是多元回归,研究财政平衡与所选自变量之间的联系,而第二个模型使用一阶差分,引入经济自由度作为伪变量,以捕捉所选措施对财政结果的动态影响。考虑的时间间隔为1999-2013年。使用这两个模型得出的结果表明,公共债务、经常账户余额和经济增长显著影响财政平衡。因此,政府需要规划和实施与经济优先事项和经济周期阶段相一致的财政政策,并确保对公共债务进行适当管理,刺激可持续经济增长和就业。
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引用次数: 1
A Comparative Analysis on the Role and Market Linkages of Gold Backed Assets During COVID-19 Pandemic 新冠肺炎疫情期间黄金支持资产的作用及市场关联性比较分析
IF 0.6 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-08-23 DOI: 10.47743/saeb-2022-0019
Sruthy Madhavan, Sivaramapanicker Sreejith
Gold is a traditional favorite investment avenue for investors all over the globe, particularly during the crisis period. Irrespective of the nature of the crisis, investors are allocating their funds to different gold-backed assets. This paper uses various globally traded gold-backed assets to identify its role and market linkages during the Covid 19 pandemic. Daily prices of assets from March 2020 to January 2022 were employed. DCC GARCH model is used to ascertain time-varying correlations and quantile regression was employed to examine the relationship between assets in different quantiles. Based on the analysis, safe haven property of all the assets is revealed and it is associated with the severity of the stock market crash as specified by the quantiles. Moreover, double exposure of gold mining stock results in different flights to quality. Co-movement of gold bullion, gold futures, and gold volatility index is visible during this crisis. Gold Exchange Traded Funds and gold-backed cryptocurrency offer diversification by decoupling with gold bullion in the portfolio. The paper highlights the importance of the choice of gold-backed assets along with gold bullion in the investment portfolio based on its role and market linkages.
黄金是全球投资者最喜欢的传统投资渠道,尤其是在危机期间。无论危机的性质如何,投资者都在将资金配置到不同的黄金支持资产上。本文使用各种全球交易的黄金支持资产来确定其在2019冠状病毒病大流行期间的作用和市场联系。采用2020年3月至2022年1月的每日资产价格。采用DCC GARCH模型确定时变相关性,采用分位数回归检验不同分位数资产之间的关系。在分析的基础上,揭示了所有资产的避险属性,并与分位数指定的股市崩盘严重程度相关。此外,黄金矿业股的双重敞口导致了不同的投资质量。在这次危机中,可以看到金条、黄金期货和黄金波动指数的共同运动。黄金交易所交易基金(etf)和黄金支持的加密货币通过与投资组合中的金条脱钩,实现了多样化。本文强调了基于其作用和市场联系的黄金支持资产以及金条在投资组合中的选择的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Current Trends in the Application of EEG in Neuromarketing: A Bibliometric Analysis 脑电图在神经营销中的应用趋势:文献计量学分析
IF 0.6 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-08-23 DOI: 10.47743/saeb-2022-0020
Ahmed H. Alsharif, Nor Zafir Md Salleh, L. Pilelienė, A. F. Abbas, Javed Ali
Despite several neuroscience tools existing, electroencephalography (EEG) is the most used and favoured tool among researchers because of its relatively low cost and high temporal resolution. Our study aimed to identify the global academic research trends of the empirical EEG studies in neuromarketing. This paper adopted the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) protocol to identify relevant articles. A bibliometric analysis software (VOSviewer) was used to evaluate thirty open-access articles found in the Scopus database between 2016 and 2020. We found that the USA is the most productive country with five research articles that used the EEG tool in marketing studies, followed by Australia, Italy, and Malaysia with three articles each. According to the most prolific journals in neuromarketing, it has been found that Frontiers in Neuroscience journal (CiteScore 5.4) is the most prolific journal with two articles and 25 total citations, followed by Scientific reports (CiteScore 7.1) with two articles and eighteen total citations, which lead us to infer that the publications’ number does not necessarily reflect the citations’ number. The study provides a profound and comprehensive overview of academic research that used EEG in marketing research.
尽管存在几种神经科学工具,但脑电图(EEG)是研究人员最常用和最喜欢的工具,因为它的成本相对较低,时间分辨率较高。我们的研究旨在确定神经市场中实证脑电图研究的全球学术研究趋势。本文采用系统评价和荟萃分析的首选报告项目(PRISMA)协议来识别相关文章。文献计量分析软件(VOSviewer)用于评估2016年至2020年间Scopus数据库中发现的30篇开放获取文章。我们发现,美国是产量最高的国家,有五篇研究文章在市场研究中使用了脑电图工具,其次是澳大利亚、意大利和马来西亚,各有三篇文章。根据神经营销领域最多产的期刊,发现《神经科学前沿》期刊(CiteScore 5.4)是产量最高的期刊,有两篇文章,总引用次数为25次,其次是《科学报告》(CiteScore 7.1),有两文章,总引引引次数为18次,这使我们推断,出版物的数量并不一定反映引文的数量。该研究对将脑电图用于营销研究的学术研究进行了深刻而全面的概述。
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引用次数: 20
Unveiling the Linkages between Economic Complexity, Innovation and Growth: The Case of High-Income and Upper Middle-Income Economies 揭示经济复杂性、创新与增长之间的联系:以高收入和中上收入经济体为例
IF 0.6 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-08-23 DOI: 10.47743/saeb-2022-0018
Lejla Terzić
This article explores the essential variables of economic complexity, innovation, and growth by researching the relationships between imperative economic indicators in selected high-income and upper middle-income economies. The economic complexity and innovation of the observed economies are robustly linked to their economic growth. The goal of this article is to investigate the significance of economic complexity and innovation in encouraging economic growth in high-income and upper middle-income economies. Miscellaneous methodological measurement instruments have been applied towards exploring the linkages between the crucial variables of economic complexity, innovation, and economic growth. The empirical data necessary for conducting this exploration were accumulated from primary and auxiliary sources. Analysis of the observed economies was performed using the statistical software package SPSS 25. The exploration results reveal the essential determinants of economic complexity and innovation for economic growth in selected countries. The interrelated determinants supervised for enhancing innovation and growth are linked to synthesized indicators of economic complexity. Confirmation of the heterogeneity between essential variables and awareness of sensitivity is the foundation for the subsequent acceptance of convenient economic complexity indicators for improvement of the critical fields of national economies.
本文通过研究选定的高收入和中高收入经济体中重要经济指标之间的关系,探讨了经济复杂性、创新和增长的基本变量。观察到的经济体的经济复杂性和创新与其经济增长密切相关。本文的目的是研究经济复杂性和创新在鼓励高收入和中高收入经济体经济增长方面的意义。在探索经济复杂性、创新和经济增长等关键变量之间的联系时,已经应用了各种方法测量工具。进行这一探索所需的经验数据是从主要和辅助来源积累起来的。使用SPSS 25统计软件包对观察到的经济进行分析。探索结果揭示了选定国家经济增长的经济复杂性和创新的基本决定因素。监督促进创新和增长的相互关联的决定因素与经济复杂性的综合指标有关。确认基本变量之间的异质性和对敏感性的认识是随后接受方便的经济复杂性指标以改善国民经济关键领域的基础。
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引用次数: 1
期刊
Scientific Annals of Economics and Business
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