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Effects of International Financial Integration on Economic Growth in Developing Countries: Heterogeneous Panel Evidence from Seven West African Countries 国际金融一体化对发展中国家经济增长的影响——来自7个西非国家的异质性面板证据
IF 0.6 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-03-21 DOI: 10.47743/saeb-2023-0018
Lamissa Barro, B. Bassolet
From the existing literature, there is no consensus on the effects of financial integration on economic growth. The studies have mostly focused on country samples without taking into account country heterogeneity, or have been limited to a causality study. This paper examines the effects of international financial integration on economic growth in seven West African Economic and Monetary Union’s countries (WAEMU)[i], over the period 1980 - 2019. Methodologically, the study applies heterogeneous panel techniques taking into account inter-individual dependence (MG, CCEMG and AMG). The results show that the stock of external debt and the opening of the capital account negatively affect long-term economic growth in the WAEMU region. The country analysis confirms the panel results for Benin, Burkina Faso and Mali. Sectoral misallocation of external capital could be a plausible explanation. The economies of WAEMU countries are mostly dominated by the service sector, which contributes more to their GDP than the productive sectors, i.e. agriculture and industry. While the agricultural sector, which employs a large part of the active population, is still traditional and does not benefit from capital inflows, the industrial sector is still embryonic. [i] Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Niger, Senegal and Togo. In this study, we have removed Guinea-Bissau due to lack of data over a large part of the period.
从现有文献来看,金融一体化对经济增长的影响还没有达成共识。这些研究大多集中在国家样本上,没有考虑到国家异质性,或者仅限于因果关系研究。本文研究了1980年至2019年期间,国际金融一体化对西非经济和货币联盟七个国家经济增长的影响。在方法上,该研究应用了考虑个体间依赖性的异质面板技术(MG、CCEMG和AMG)。结果表明,外债存量和资本账户开放对西非经货联盟地区的长期经济增长产生了负面影响。国别分析证实了贝宁、布基纳法索和马里的小组结果。外部资本的部门错配可能是一个合理的解释。西非经货联盟国家的经济主要由服务部门主导,服务部门对其国内生产总值的贡献大于生产部门,即农业和工业。虽然农业部门雇佣了大部分活跃人口,仍然是传统部门,没有从资本流入中受益,但工业部门仍处于萌芽状态。[i]贝宁、布基纳法索、科特迪瓦、几内亚比绍、马里、尼日尔、塞内加尔和多哥。在这项研究中,由于缺乏这一时期大部分时间的数据,我们删除了几内亚比绍。
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引用次数: 0
Testing the Price Bubbles in Cryptocurrencies using Sequential Augmented Dickey-Fuller (SADF) Test Procedures: A Comparison for Before and After COVID-19 使用顺序增强迪基-富勒(SADF)测试程序测试加密货币的价格泡沫:COVID-19前后的比较
IF 0.6 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-03-20 DOI: 10.47743/saeb-2023-0005
A. Çelik, Çağrı Ulu
Bubbles in asset prices have attracted the attention of economists for centuries. Extreme increases in asset prices, followed by their sudden decline, create a turbulent effect on the economy and even invite crises in time. For this reason, some measurement techniques have been employed to investigate the price bubbles that may occur. This study explores the possible speculative price bubbles of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Binance Coin cryptocurrencies, compares them with the pre-and post-COVID-19 period, and examines asymmetric causality relationships between variables. Therefore, we analyzed the price bubbles of these cryptocurrencies using the closing price for daily data between 16.01.2018 and 31.12.2021 by the Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller (SADF) and the Hatemi-J (2012) asymmetric causality test. In this context, 1446 observations, 723 of which were before COVID-19 and 723 after COVID-19, were employed in the study. Looking at the SADF analysis results, we detected 103 price bubbles before COVID-19 for the three cryptocurrencies, while we determined 599 price bubbles after COVID-19. The common finding in the asymmetric causality test results is that there is a causality relationship between the negative shocks faced by one cryptocurrency and the positive shocks faced by the other cryptocurrencies.
几个世纪以来,资产价格泡沫一直吸引着经济学家的注意。资产价格的极端上涨,随后又突然下跌,会对经济产生动荡的影响,甚至会及时引发危机。由于这个原因,一些测量技术已经被用来调查可能发生的价格泡沫。本研究探讨了比特币、以太坊和币安币加密货币可能存在的投机性价格泡沫,并将其与covid -19之前和之后的时期进行了比较,并检验了变量之间的不对称因果关系。因此,我们使用2018年1月16日至2021年12月31日之间每日数据的收盘价,通过Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller (SADF)和Hatemi-J(2012)非对称因果关系检验分析了这些加密货币的价格泡沫。在这种情况下,研究中使用了1446个观测值,其中723个在COVID-19之前,723个在COVID-19之后。从SADF分析结果来看,我们在COVID-19之前检测到三种加密货币的103个价格泡沫,而在COVID-19之后我们确定了599个价格泡沫。非对称因果检验结果的共同发现是,一种加密货币面临的负面冲击与其他加密货币面临的积极冲击之间存在因果关系。
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引用次数: 0
ICT Leapfrogging Amidst Labour Force-Economic Growth Nexus in EAP and ECA Regions EAP和ECA地区劳动力-经济增长关系中的ICT跨越式发展
IF 0.6 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-03-20 DOI: 10.47743/saeb-2023-0004
Bosede Ngozi Adeleye, B. U. Achugamonu, T. George, M. Ogbari, Oluyomi Ola-David
Towards achieving the 2030 United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, this study revisits the information and communication technology (ICT) leapfrogging hypothesis of Steinmueller (2001), and Fong (2009) to expand the literature by testing its relevance in the labour force-growth dynamics in Asia. To achieve this, the study addresses four objectives: (i) test the ICT leapfrogging hypothesis; (ii) investigate the growth-enhancing impact of labour; (iii) examine whether ICT enhances or distorts the productivity of labour on economic growth; and (iv) if these effects differ by economic development. The study uses an unbalanced panel data on 81 countries located in East Asia and Pacific (EAP) and Europe and Central Asia (ECA) from 2010 to 2019. Two estimation techniques, namely panel spatial correlation consistent fixed effects (PSCC-FE) and random effects instrumental variables two-stage least squares (RE-IV2SLS), are deployed. To appraise if the impact differs by economic development, the study engages income group analysis. Among other findings: the leapfrogging hypothesis holds; labour is a significant predictor of economic growth; mobile phones usage is a more potent ICT indicator with more leapfrogging potentials relative to fixed telephones subscription; the net effect of labour on growth is mostly positive in the mobile phones’ models.
为了实现2030年联合国可持续发展目标,本研究重新审视了Steinmueller(2001)和Fong(2009)的信息和通信技术跨越假说,通过测试其在亚洲劳动力增长动态中的相关性来扩展文献。为了实现这一目标,该研究涉及四个目标:(一)检验信息和通信技术跨越假说;(ii)调查劳动力对增长的促进作用;三审查信息和通信技术是否提高或扭曲了劳动力对经济增长的生产力;以及(iv)这些影响是否因经济发展而不同。该研究使用了2010年至2019年东亚及太平洋(EAP)、欧洲和中亚(ECA)81个国家的不平衡面板数据。采用了两种估计技术,即面板空间相关性一致固定效应(PSCC-FE)和随机效应工具变量两阶段最小二乘法(RE-IV2SLS)。为了评估影响是否因经济发展而不同,本研究采用了收入群体分析。在其他发现中:跳跃假说成立;劳动力是经济增长的重要预测因素;移动电话的使用是一个更有力的信息和通信技术指标,与固定电话的订阅相比具有更大的跨越潜力;劳动力对增长的净影响主要体现在手机型号上。
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引用次数: 0
Linear and Nonlinear Relationship Between Real Exchange Rate, Real Interest Rate and Consumer Price Index: An Empirical Application for Countries with Different Levels of Development 实际汇率、实际利率与消费者物价指数的线性与非线性关系:不同发展水平国家的实证应用
IF 0.6 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-03-20 DOI: 10.47743/saeb-2023-0008
Ersın Sünbül
The research population of this study consists of Australia, Azerbaijan, Egypt, Brazil, Chile, Canada, Hungary, Pakistan, India, Ukraine and the United Kingdom. For these countries; T, the relationship between Exchange Rate Index (exc), Real Interest Rate (int) and Consumer Price Index (cpi) variables were examined. Data from 2000Q1 to 2021Q3 were used in the study. The data are taken from the IMF's data bank. Analysis was done in R-Studio. Wo Seasonality Test, Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test, Linear Granger Causality Analysis and Nonlinear Granger Causality Analysis were used to investigate the relationship between variables. The theory claims that there is causality in both directions between exchange rate, interest rate and inflation. In the study, the relationship between these variables was investigated with linear and nonlinear causality tests. It is thought that the empirical results that contradict the theory are caused by the development levels of the countries, their macroeconomic structures, the applied fiscal and monetary policy instruments, the conjuncture and the analysis methods. The study aims to investigate these claims. For this reason, the development levels, sociocultural and socioeconomic structures of the selected countries were requested to be different. In addition, two different test methods, linear and non-linear, were preferred for the causality relationship. It was observed that the selected analysis methods significantly affected the results. Linear causality analysis results are closer to theoretical implications. However, the level of development of the countries does not have a significant effect on the relationship between the variables.
本研究的研究人群包括澳大利亚、阿塞拜疆、埃及、巴西、智利、加拿大、匈牙利、巴基斯坦、印度、乌克兰和英国。对于这些国家;T、 研究了汇率指数(exc)、实际利率(int)和消费者价格指数(cpi)变量之间的关系。本研究使用了2000年第一季度至2021年第三季度的数据。这些数据来自国际货币基金组织的数据库。分析是在R-Studio中完成的。采用Wo季节性检验、增广Dickey-Fuller检验、线性Granger因果关系分析和非线性Granger因果分析来研究变量之间的关系。该理论认为,汇率、利率和通货膨胀之间存在双向因果关系。在这项研究中,通过线性和非线性因果关系检验来研究这些变量之间的关系。人们认为,与理论相矛盾的实证结果是由各国的发展水平、宏观经济结构、所采用的财政和货币政策工具、时机和分析方法造成的。这项研究旨在调查这些说法。因此,要求选定国家的发展水平、社会文化和社会经济结构有所不同。此外,因果关系优选两种不同的测试方法,线性和非线性。观察到所选择的分析方法显著影响了结果。线性因果关系分析结果更接近理论含义。然而,各国的发展水平对变量之间的关系没有显著影响。
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引用次数: 0
The 'Bad Behavior Index': A Composite Measure of the Development Hindering Behavior of Individuals and Institutions “不良行为指数”:衡量阻碍个人和机构发展行为的综合指标
IF 0.6 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-03-20 DOI: 10.47743/saeb-2023-0003
Mohammad Tariq Al Fozaie
Composite indices have become a popular tool for providing a quantitative, simplified, and visualized representation of complex phenomena. An example of such is the Human Development Index (HDI) which ranks countries by their level of development. The primary limitation of the HDI is its narrow scope, which hinders its effectiveness at explaining why some nations are more developed than others. The discussion as to why some nations are more developed than others goes back as far as the 14th century, where Ibn Khaldun developed a theory which aims to explain why civilizations rise and fall. Some of the hypotheses which seek to answer this question point to the importance of economic freedoms, absence of corruption, high investment in human capital, and the importance of institutions etc. to development. One hypothesis which has not been properly studied regards the culpability of individual and institutional behavior. The purpose of this study is to introduce a composite measure of the development hindering behavior of individuals and institutions, i.e., the Bad Behavior Index (BBI). The methodology of this study is influenced by the Mazziotta & Pareto framework for composite indices. The index weights have been computed by integrating expert opinion with the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP). The findings of this study suggest that African countries engage in the highest level of bad behavior, which subsequently leads to their poor socio-economic development, whereas Northern countries engage in the least level of bad behavior. The study also finds that the most important drivers for socio-economic development are low levels of corruption, high levels of knowledge creation, strict application of the rule of law, high levels of social cohesion, and high levels of political stability.
综合指数已成为一种流行的工具,用于提供复杂现象的定量、简化和可视化表示。人类发展指数就是一个例子,它根据各国的发展水平对各国进行排名。人类发展倡议的主要局限性在于其范围狭窄,这阻碍了其有效解释为什么一些国家比其他国家更发达。关于为什么一些国家比其他国家更发达的讨论可以追溯到14世纪,伊本·哈尔顿在那里提出了一个理论,旨在解释文明兴衰的原因。一些试图回答这个问题的假设指出了经济自由、不腐败、对人力资本的高投资以及体制等对发展的重要性。一个没有得到适当研究的假设是关于个人和制度行为的罪责。本研究的目的是引入一种衡量个人和机构发展阻碍行为的综合指标,即不良行为指数(BBI)。这项研究的方法受到Mazziotta和Pareto综合指数框架的影响。通过将专家意见与模糊层次分析法(FAHP)相结合来计算指标权重。这项研究的结果表明,非洲国家的不良行为水平最高,从而导致其社会经济发展水平低下,而北方国家的不良表现水平最低。研究还发现,社会经济发展的最重要驱动力是低腐败水平、高知识创造水平、严格实施法治、高社会凝聚力和高政治稳定水平。
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引用次数: 0
Foreign Direct Investment-Growth Nexus in BRICS: How Relevant are the Absorption Capacities? 金砖国家的外国直接投资-增长关系:吸收能力的相关性如何?
IF 0.6 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-03-20 DOI: 10.47743/saeb-2023-0006
Kunofiwa Tsaurai
This study examined the impact of foreign direct investment on economic growth in BRICS using fixed effects, dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) and fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS). Panel data ranging from 1991 to 2019 was used for the purposes of this study. The same study also explored whether financial sector and human capital development are necessary absorption capacities that enhance economic growth in BRICS. To a larger extent, foreign direct investment had a negative impact on economic growth in BRICS, consistent with the dependency theory. Financial development was also found to be the channel through which economic growth is enhanced by foreign direct investment. Although the influence was observed to be non-significantly negative, human capital development improved the influence of foreign direct investment on economic growth. BRICS authorities are therefore urged to implement human capital and financial development enhancement policies to ensure significant foreign direct investment’s positive influence on economic growth.
本研究采用固定效应、动态普通最小二乘(DOLS)和完全修正普通最小二乘(FMOLS)分析了外国直接投资对金砖国家经济增长的影响。本研究使用了1991年至2019年的面板数据。该研究还探讨了金融部门和人力资本发展是否是促进金砖国家经济增长的必要吸收能力。在更大程度上,外国直接投资对金砖国家的经济增长产生了负面影响,这与依赖理论相一致。金融发展也被认为是外国直接投资促进经济增长的渠道。虽然观察到的影响为非显著负向,但人力资本开发提高了外国直接投资对经济增长的影响。因此,我们敦促金砖国家当局实施促进人力资本和金融发展的政策,以确保大量外国直接投资对经济增长产生积极影响。
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引用次数: 0
Modelling the Non-Linear Dependencies between Government Expenditures and Shadow Economy Using Data-Driven Approaches 使用数据驱动方法建模政府支出与影子经济之间的非线性相关性
IF 0.6 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-03-14 DOI: 10.47743/saeb-2023-0001
Codrut-Florin Ivascu, Sorina Emanuela Ștefoni
This article aims to model the relationship between the size of the shadow economy and the most important government expenditures respectively social protection, health, and education, using nonlinear approaches. We applied four different Machine Learning models, namely Support Vector Regression, Neural Networks, Random Forest, and XGBoost on a cross-sectional dataset of 28 EU states between 1995 and 2020. Our goal is to calibrate an algorithm that can explain the variance of shadow economy size better than a linear model. Moreover, the most performant model has been used to predict the shadow economy size for over 30,000 simulated combinations of expenses in order to outline some possible inflection points after which government expenditures become counterproductive. Our findings suggest that ML algorithms outperform linear regression in terms of R-squared and root mean squared error and that social protection spending is the most important determinant of shadow economy size.  Further to our analysis for the 28 EU states, between 1995 and 2020, the results suggest that the lowest size of shadow economy occurs when social protection expenses are greater than 20% of GDP, health expenses are greater than 6% of GDP, and education expenses range between 6% and 8% of GDP. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first paper that used ML to model shadow economy and its determinants (i.e., government expenditures). We propose an easy-to-replicate methodology that can be developed in future research.
本文旨在利用非线性方法建立影子经济规模与最重要的政府支出(分别是社会保护、卫生和教育)之间的关系模型。我们在1995年至2020年间对28个欧盟国家的横截面数据集应用了四种不同的机器学习模型,即支持向量回归、神经网络、随机森林和XGBoost。我们的目标是校准一种算法,它可以比线性模型更好地解释影子经济规模的变化。此外,最有效的模型已被用于预测超过30,000种模拟支出组合的影子经济规模,以概述政府支出产生反效果的一些可能拐点。我们的研究结果表明,机器学习算法在r平方和均方根误差方面优于线性回归,社会保护支出是影子经济规模的最重要决定因素。我们对欧盟28个国家在1995年至2020年间的进一步分析表明,影子经济规模最小的时候,社会保障支出大于GDP的20%,医疗支出大于GDP的6%,教育支出在GDP的6%至8%之间。据作者所知,这是第一篇使用ML来模拟影子经济及其决定因素(即政府支出)的论文。我们提出了一种易于复制的方法,可以在未来的研究中发展。
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引用次数: 0
The Empirical Study of the Impact of Firm- and Country-level Factors on Debt Financing Decisions of ICT Firms 企业与国家层面因素对信息通信技术企业债务融资决策影响的实证研究
IF 0.6 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-02-21 DOI: 10.47743/saeb-2023-0014
Inna Alexeeva-Alexeev
The capital structure has been extensively analysed in the empirical literature. Despite of the great contribution of the technological industry to the global economy, little research has been conducted regarding corporate finance of ICT firms. Moreover, the previous literature barely considers the effect of macroeconomic variables on financial decisions, focusing much more on internal determinants, such as cash flow, firm’s size or growth opportunities. The objective of this work is to reduce this gap by disentangling the reasons behind the financial decisions of technological firms. The sample included 1,510 public ICT firms from 23 countries over the period 2004 – 2019 (17,342 observations). The variables used in this study are obtained from S&P Capital IQ, World Development Indicators, Main Science and Technology Indicators from OECD, and FMI dataset. The two-step system generalized method of moments (GMM) was used as methodology. Consistent with the extant literature, more profitable and liquid ICT firms and those with an increased non-debt tax shields are less leveraged. However, the companies which present higher risk, measured as volatility of EBIT, increase their use of debt financing. Contrary to the findings of many other studies, the analysis of a firm’s size and tangible assets shows non-conclusive results. Regarding macroeconomic determinants, only economic growth and foreign direct investment inflows were found to generate a positive effect on financial decisions of ICT firms. The findings of this work can be used to design and develop policies, measures, and facilitate mechanisms for optimal management of the financing decisions of ICT firms.
实证文献对资本结构进行了广泛的分析。尽管科技产业对全球经济做出了巨大贡献,但有关信息通信技术企业融资的研究却很少。此外,之前的文献几乎没有考虑宏观经济变量对财务决策的影响,而是更多地关注内部决定因素,如现金流量、公司规模或增长机会。这项工作的目标是通过解开技术公司财务决策背后的原因来减少这种差距。样本包括2004年至2019年期间来自23个国家的1510家公共ICT公司(17342次观察)。本研究使用的变量来自标准普尔资本智商、世界发展指标、经合组织主要科学技术指标和FMI数据集。采用两步系统广义矩量法(GMM)作为方法学。与现有文献一致的是,利润更高、流动性更强的信息通信技术公司和非债务税盾增加的公司杠杆率较低。然而,风险较高的公司(以息税前利润的波动性衡量)增加了债务融资的使用。与许多其他研究的结果相反,对公司规模和有形资产的分析显示出非决定性的结果。关于宏观经济决定因素,只有经济增长和外国直接投资流入被发现对信息通信技术公司的财务决策产生积极影响。这项工作的结果可用于设计和制定政策、措施,并促进ICT公司融资决策的最佳管理机制。
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引用次数: 0
Flip the Coin: Heads, Tails or Cryptocurrencies? 抛硬币:正面、反面还是加密货币?
IF 0.6 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-02-16 DOI: 10.47743/saeb-2023-0013
António Portugal Duarte, Fátima Sol Murta, Nuno Baetas da Silva, Beatriz Rodrigues Vieira
This paper analysis and compares the volatility of seven cryptocurrencies – Bitcoin, Dogecoin, Ethereum, BitcoinCash, Ripple, Stellar and Litecoin – to the volatility of seven centralized currencies – Yuan, Yen, Canadian Dollar, Brazilian Real, Swiss Franc, Euro and British Pound. We estimate GARCH models to analyze their volatility. The results point to a considerably high volatility of cryptocurrencies when compared to that of centralized currencies. Therefore, we conclude that cryptocurrencies still fall far short of fulfilling all the requirements to be considered as a currency, specifically regarding the functions of store of value and unit of account.
本文分析并比较了七种加密货币(比特币、狗狗币、以太坊、比特币现金、瑞波币、恒星币和莱特币)与七种中心化货币(人民币、日元、加元、巴西雷亚尔、瑞士法郎、欧元和英镑)的波动性。我们估计GARCH模型来分析其波动性。结果表明,与中心化货币相比,加密货币的波动性相当高。因此,我们得出的结论是,加密货币仍然远远不能满足被视为货币的所有要求,特别是关于价值储存和记账单位的功能。
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引用次数: 1
Effects of Economic Freedom on Subjective Well-Being 经济自由对主观幸福感的影响
IF 0.6 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-02-14 DOI: 10.47743/saeb-2023-0015
A. Sirbu, Andreea IACOBUȚĂ-MIHĂIȚĂ, Mircea Asandului, M. Brezuleanu
Are people more likely to be satisfied with their lives if they had freedom from regulations, if they had the ability to trade freely internationally? In light of the demographic aging phenomenon we are facing, the present study analyzes the relationship between economic freedom and life satisfaction among European older adults. In order to do so, we are using data from the European Health, Ageing, and Retirement Survey and Economic Freedom of the World. By using the ordered logit regression method, we estimated different models to identify how sub-indicators of economic freedom affect the subjective well-being. According to the findings, the quality of the institutions that define the legal system and establish rules for the protection of private property and sound monetary policy have a positive effect on subjective well-being. On the other hand, openness to international trade has a negative effect and government and regulation doesn’t show any significance. 
如果人们不受监管,如果他们有能力在国际上自由贸易,他们是否更有可能对自己的生活感到满意?鉴于我们面临的人口老龄化现象,本研究分析了欧洲老年人的经济自由度与生活满意度之间的关系。为了做到这一点,我们正在使用来自欧洲健康、老龄化和退休调查以及世界经济自由的数据。通过使用有序logit回归方法,我们估计了不同的模型,以确定经济自由的子指标如何影响主观幸福感。根据调查结果,界定法律体系、制定保护私人财产规则和健全货币政策的机构的质量对主观幸福感有积极影响。另一方面,国际贸易开放具有负面影响,政府和监管没有表现出任何意义。
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引用次数: 1
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Scientific Annals of Economics and Business
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