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Comments on: A Re-analysis of Repeatability and Reproducibility in the Ames-USDOE-FBI Study, by Dorfman and Valliant 评论:Dorfman和Valliant对Ames USDOE FBI研究中重复性和再现性的重新分析
IF 1.6 Q2 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-03-13 DOI: 10.1080/2330443x.2023.2188069
Max D. Morris
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引用次数: 2
A Statistical Understanding of Disability in the LGBT Community 对LGBT社区残疾的统计理解
IF 1.6 Q2 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-03-10 DOI: 10.1080/2330443x.2023.2188056
Christopher R. Surfus
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引用次数: 0
What Protects the Autonomy of the Federal Statistical Agencies? An Assessment of the Procedures in Place to Protect the Independence and Objectivity of Official U.S. Statistics 什么保护联邦统计机构的自主权?对保护美国官方统计数据独立性和客观性的现行程序的评估
IF 1.6 Q2 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-03-10 DOI: 10.1080/2330443x.2023.2188062
C. Citro, Jonathan Auerbach, Katherine Smith Evans, E. Groshen, J. Landefeld, J. Mulrow, Tom Petska, Steve Pierson, N. Potok, C. Rothwell, John Thompson, James L. Woodworth, Edward Wu
The Abstract We assess the professional autonomy of the 13 principal U.S. federal statistical agencies. We define six components or measures of such autonomy and evaluate each of the 13 principal statistical agencies according to each measure. Our assessment yields three main findings: 1. Challenges to the objectivity, credibility, and utility of federal statistics arise largely as a consequence of insufficient autonomy. 2. There is remarkable variation in autonomy protections and a surprising lack of statutory protections for many agencies for many of the proposed measures. 3. Many existing autonomy rules and guidelines are weakened by unclear or unactionable
摘要我们评估了美国13个主要联邦统计机构的专业自主权。我们定义了这种自主权的六个组成部分或衡量标准,并根据每个衡量标准对13个主要统计机构中的每一个进行评估。我们的评估得出了三个主要结论:1。联邦统计数据的客观性、可信度和实用性面临挑战,主要是由于自主权不足。2.在自治保护方面存在显著差异,许多拟议措施中许多机构缺乏法定保护,这令人惊讶。3.许多现有的自治规则和指导方针因不明确或无法实施而被削弱
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引用次数: 2
A Bayesian Spatio-temporal Model to Optimize Allocation of Buprenorphine in North Carolina. 优化北卡罗来纳州丁丙诺啡分配的贝叶斯时空模型。
IF 1.5 Q2 SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS Pub Date : 2023-01-01 Epub Date: 2023-06-29 DOI: 10.1080/2330443x.2023.2218448
Qianyu Dong, David Kline, Staci A Hepler

The opioid epidemic is an ongoing public health crisis. In North Carolina, overdose deaths due to illicit opioid overdose have sharply increased over the last 5-7 years. Buprenorphine is a U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved medication for treatment of opioid use disorder and is obtained by prescription. Prior to January 2023, providers had to obtain a waiver and were limited in the number of patients that they could prescribe buprenorphine. Thus, identifying counties where increasing buprenorphine would yield the greatest overall reduction in overdose death can help policymakers target certain geographical regions to inform an effective public health response. We propose a Bayesian spatiotemporal model that relates yearly, county-level changes in illicit opioid overdose death rates to changes in buprenorphine prescriptions. We use our model to forecast the statewide count and rate of illicit opioid overdose deaths in future years, and we use nonlinear constrained optimization to identify the optimal buprenorphine increase in each county under a set of constraints on available resources. Our model estimates a negative relationship between death rate and increasing buprenorphine after accounting for other covariates, and our identified optimal single-year allocation strategy is estimated to reduce opioid overdose deaths by over 5.

阿片类药物的流行是一场持续的公共卫生危机。在北卡罗来纳州,因非法阿片类药物过量致死的人数在过去 5-7 年间急剧增加。丁丙诺啡是美国食品和药物管理局批准用于治疗阿片类药物使用障碍的药物,可通过处方获得。在 2023 年 1 月之前,医疗服务提供者必须获得豁免,而且他们可以处方丁丙诺啡的患者人数有限。因此,确定在哪些县增加丁丙诺啡可最大程度地减少药物过量死亡,有助于政策制定者针对某些地理区域采取有效的公共卫生应对措施。我们提出了一个贝叶斯时空模型,该模型将县级非法阿片类药物过量致死率的年度变化与丁丙诺啡处方的变化联系起来。我们利用该模型预测未来几年全州非法阿片类药物过量致死的人数和比率,并利用非线性约束优化确定在一组可用资源约束条件下每个县的最佳丁丙诺啡增加量。在考虑了其他协变量后,我们的模型估计死亡率与丁丙诺啡增加量之间存在负相关关系,而我们确定的单年度最佳分配策略估计可将阿片类药物过量死亡人数减少 5%以上。
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引用次数: 0
Shining a Light on Forensic Black-Box Studies 照亮法医黑匣子研究
IF 1.6 Q2 Mathematics Pub Date : 2022-09-28 DOI: 10.1080/2330443x.2023.2216748
Kori Khan, A. Carriquiry
Forensic science plays a critical role in the United States criminal justice system. For decades, many feature-based fields of forensic science, such as firearm and toolmark identification, developed outside the scientific community's purview. The results of these studies are widely relied on by judges nationwide. However, this reliance is misplaced. Black-box studies to date suffer from inappropriate sampling methods and high rates of missingness. Current black-box studies ignore both problems in arriving at the error rate estimates presented to courts. We explore the impact of each type of limitation using available data from black-box studies and court materials. We show that black-box studies rely on non-representative samples of examiners. Using a case study of a popular ballistics study, we find evidence that these unrepresentative samples may commit fewer errors than the wider population from which they came. We also find evidence that the missingness in black-box studies is non-ignorable. Using data from a recent latent print study, we show that ignoring this missingness likely results in systematic underestimates of error rates. Finally, we offer concrete steps to overcome these limitations.
法医学在美国刑事司法系统中起着至关重要的作用。几十年来,许多基于特征的法医学领域,如枪支和工具标记鉴定,在科学界的范围之外发展起来。这些研究的结果被全国的法官广泛依赖。然而,这种依赖是错误的。迄今为止的黑箱研究存在抽样方法不当和高失误率的问题。目前的黑箱研究在得出提交给法院的错误率估计时忽略了这两个问题。我们利用黑箱研究和法庭材料中的可用数据来探讨每种限制的影响。我们表明黑箱研究依赖于非代表性的审查员样本。使用一个流行的弹道学研究的案例研究,我们发现证据表明,这些不具代表性的样本可能比他们来自的更广泛的人群犯更少的错误。我们还发现证据表明,黑箱研究中的缺失是不可忽视的。利用最近一项潜在打印研究的数据,我们表明,忽略这种缺失可能会导致系统地低估错误率。最后,我们提出克服这些限制的具体步骤。
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引用次数: 2
Marginal Structural Models to Estimate Causal Effects of Right-to-Carry Laws on Crime 估计携带权法律对犯罪因果影响的边际结构模型
IF 1.6 Q2 Mathematics Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI: 10.1080/2330443X.2022.2120136
W. M. van der Wal
Abstract Right-to-carry (RTC) laws allow the legal carrying of concealed firearms for defense, in certain states in the United States. I used modern causal inference methodology from epidemiology to examine the effect of RTC laws on crime over a period from 1959 up to 2016. I fitted marginal structural models (MSMs), using inverse probability weighting (IPW) to correct for criminological, economic, political and demographic confounders. Results indicate that RTC laws significantly increase violent crime by 7.5% and property crime by 6.1%. RTC laws significantly increase murder and manslaughter, robbery, aggravated assault, burglary, larceny theft and motor vehicle theft rates. Applying this method to this topic for the first time addresses methodological shortcomings in previous studies such as conditioning away the effect, overfit and the inappropriate use of county level measurements. Data and analysis code for this article are available online.
摘要:在美国的一些州,持枪权法律允许合法携带用于自卫的隐蔽枪支。我使用流行病学的现代因果推理方法来研究1959年至2016年期间RTC法律对犯罪的影响。我拟合了边际结构模型(MSMs),使用逆概率加权(IPW)来校正犯罪学、经济、政治和人口统计学的混杂因素。结果表明,RTC法律显著增加了7.5%的暴力犯罪和6.1%的财产犯罪。RTC法律显著增加了谋杀和过失杀人、抢劫、严重攻击、入室盗窃、盗窃和机动车盗窃的发生率。将该方法首次应用于本课题,解决了以往研究中的方法缺陷,如调节效应、过拟合和不适当使用县级测量。本文的数据和分析代码可在网上获得。
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引用次数: 2
Signal Weighted Teacher Value-Added Models 信号加权教师增值模型
IF 1.6 Q2 Mathematics Pub Date : 2022-07-29 DOI: 10.1080/2330443X.2022.2105769
Edward Kim
Abstract This study introduces the signal weighted teacher value-added model (SW VAM), a value-added model that weights student-level observations based on each student’s capacity to signal their assigned teacher’s quality. Specifically, the model leverages the repeated appearance of a given student to estimate student reliability and sensitivity parameters, whereas traditional VAMs represent a special case where all students exhibit identical parameters. Simulation study results indicate that SW VAMs outperform traditional VAMs at recovering true teacher quality when the assumption of student parameter invariance is met but have mixed performance under alternative assumptions of the true data generating process depending on data availability and the choice of priors. Evidence using an empirical dataset suggests that SW VAM and traditional VAM results may disagree meaningfully in practice. These findings suggest that SW VAMs have promising potential to recover true teacher value-added in practical applications and, as a version of value-added models that attends to student differences, can be used to test the validity of traditional VAM assumptions in empirical contexts.
摘要本研究介绍了信号加权教师增值模型(SW-VAM),这是一种基于每个学生发出指定教师质量信号的能力来加权学生水平观察的增值模型。具体而言,该模型利用给定学生的重复出现来估计学生的可靠性和敏感性参数,而传统的VAM代表了所有学生都表现出相同参数的特殊情况。仿真研究结果表明,当满足学生参数不变性的假设时,SW VAM在恢复真实教师质量方面优于传统VAM,但在真实数据生成过程的替代假设下,根据数据可用性和先验的选择,其性能参差不齐。使用经验数据集的证据表明,SW VAM和传统的VAM结果在实践中可能存在重大分歧。这些发现表明,SW VAM在实际应用中具有恢复真正教师增值的潜力,并且作为一种关注学生差异的增值模型,可以用于在经验背景下测试传统VAM假设的有效性。
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引用次数: 0
A Re-Analysis of Repeatability and Reproducibility in the Ames-USDOE-FBI Study Ames-USDOE FBI研究中重复性和再现性的再分析
IF 1.6 Q2 Mathematics Pub Date : 2022-04-19 DOI: 10.1080/2330443X.2022.2120137
A. Dorfman, R. Valliant
Abstract Forensic firearms identification, the determination by a trained firearms examiner as to whether or not bullets or cartridges came from a common weapon, has long been a mainstay in the criminal courts. Reliability of forensic firearms identification has been challenged in the general scientific community, and, in response, several studies have been carried out aimed at showing that firearms examination is accurate, that is, has low error rates. Less studied has been the question of consistency, of whether two examinations of the same bullets or cartridge cases come to the same conclusion, carried out by an examiner on separate occasions—intrarater reliability or repeatability—or by two examiners—interrater reliability or reproducibility. One important study, described in a 2020 Report by the Ames Laboratory-USDOE to the Federal Bureau of Investigation, went beyond considerations of accuracy to investigate firearms examination repeatability and reproducibility. The Report’s conclusions were paradoxical. The observed agreement of examiners with themselves or with other examiners appears mediocre. However, the study concluded repeatability and reproducibility are satisfactory, on grounds that the observed agreement exceeds a quantity called the expected agreement. We find that appropriately employing expected agreement as it was intended does not suggest satisfactory repeatability and reproducibility, but the opposite.
摘要法医枪支鉴定,即由受过训练的枪支检查员确定子弹或子弹是否来自普通武器,长期以来一直是刑事法院的支柱。法医枪支鉴定的可靠性在一般科学界受到挑战,作为回应,已经进行了几项研究,旨在表明枪支检查是准确的,即错误率低。较少研究的是一致性问题,即同一子弹或弹壳的两次检查是否得出相同的结论,由一名检查员在不同的场合进行——评分者内部的可靠性或可重复性——或者由两名检查员进行——评分器间的可靠性或再现性。埃姆斯实验室USDOE在2020年提交给联邦调查局的一份报告中描述了一项重要研究,该研究超越了准确性的考虑,调查了枪支检查的可重复性和再现性。报告的结论自相矛盾。观察到的主考者与自己或其他主考者的一致性似乎平平。然而,该研究得出的结论是,可重复性和再现性令人满意,理由是观察到的一致性超过了一个称为预期一致性的量。我们发现,按照预期适当使用预期一致性并不意味着令人满意的可重复性和再现性,相反。
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引用次数: 5
Observational Study of the Effect of the Juvenile Stay-At-Home Order on SARS-CoV-2 Infection Spread in Saline County, Arkansas 阿肯色州Saline县青少年居家令对严重急性呼吸系统综合征冠状病毒2型感染传播影响的观察研究
IF 1.6 Q2 Mathematics Pub Date : 2022-03-09 DOI: 10.1080/2330443X.2022.2050326
N. Hwang, S. Chatterjee, Y. Di, Sharmodeep Bhattacharyya
Abstract We assess the treatment effect of juvenile stay-at-home orders (JSAHO) on reducing the rate of SARS-CoV-2 infection spread in Saline County (“Saline”), Arkansas, by examining the difference between Saline’s and control Arkansas counties’ changes in daily and mean log infection rates of pretreatment (March 28–April 5, 2020) and treatment periods (April 6–May 6, 2020). A synthetic control county is constructed based on the parallel-trends assumption, least-squares fitting on pretreatment and socio-demographic covariates, and elastic-net-based methods, from which the counterfactual outcome is predicted and the treatment effect is estimated using the difference-in-differences, the synthetic control, and the changes-in-changes methodologies. Both the daily and average treatment effects of JSAHO are shown to be significant. Despite its narrow scope and lack of enforcement for compliance, JSAHO reduced the rate of the infection spread in Saline. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.
摘要我们通过检查Saline县和阿肯色州对照县在预处理(2020年3月28日至4月5日)和治疗期(2020年4月6日至5月6日)的每日和平均对数感染率变化的差异,评估了青少年居家令(JSAHO)在降低阿肯色州Saline县(“Saline”)严重急性呼吸系统综合征冠状病毒2型感染传播率方面的治疗效果。基于平行趋势假设、预处理和社会人口协变量的最小二乘拟合以及基于弹性网的方法,构建了一个综合控制县,从中预测反事实结果,并使用差异差异、综合控制和变化变化方法估计治疗效果。JSAHO的每日和平均治疗效果都很显著。尽管JSAHO的范围很窄,而且缺乏强制执行,但它降低了Saline的感染传播率。本文的补充材料可在线获取。
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引用次数: 0
Wartime Fatalities in the Nuclear Era 核时代的战时死亡
IF 1.6 Q2 Mathematics Pub Date : 2022-02-24 DOI: 10.1080/2330443X.2022.2038744
L. Ice, J. Scouras, E. Toton
Abstract Senior leaders in the U.S. Department of Defense, as well as nuclear strategists and academics, have argued that the advent of nuclear weapons is associated with a dramatic decrease in wartime fatalities. This assessment is often supported by an evolving series of figures that show a marked drop in wartime fatalities as a percentage of world population after 1945 to levels well below those of the prior centuries. The goal of this article is not to ascertain whether nuclear weapons are associated with or have led to a decrease in wartime fatalities, but rather to critique the supporting statistical evidence. We assess these wartime fatality figures and find that they are both irreproducible and misleading. We perform a more rigorous and traceable analysis and discover that post-1945 wartime fatalities as a percentage of world population are consistent with those of many other historical periods. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.
摘要美国国防部的高级领导人以及核战略家和学者认为,核武器的出现与战时死亡人数的急剧减少有关。这一评估通常得到一系列不断发展的数字的支持,这些数字显示,1945年后,战时死亡人数占世界人口的百分比显著下降,远低于前几个世纪的水平。这篇文章的目的不是确定核武器是否与战时死亡人数的减少有关或导致了战争死亡人数的下降,而是批评支持性的统计证据。我们评估了这些战时死亡数字,发现它们既不可复制,又具有误导性。我们进行了更严格和可追溯的分析,发现1945年后的战争死亡人数占世界人口的百分比与许多其他历史时期的死亡人数一致。本文的补充材料可在线获取。
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引用次数: 1
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Statistics and Public Policy
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