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Export-led growth or growth-led exports? Western Europe in the "golden age" 出口导向型增长还是增长导向型出口?“黄金时代”的西欧
IF 1.6 Q4 EDUCATION & EDUCATIONAL RESEARCH Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI: 10.25428/1824-2979/202002-185-203
Andrea Boltho
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引用次数: 1
Oil price shocks, equity markets, and contagion effect in OECD countries 经合组织国家的油价冲击、股票市场和传染效应
IF 1.6 Q4 EDUCATION & EDUCATIONAL RESEARCH Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI: 10.25428/1824-2979/202002-155-183
K. Guesmi, I. Abid, A. Créti, Zied Ftiti
This paper revisits the dynamic linkages between the Brent oil market and OECD stock markets. Econometrically, we use a multivariate corrected dynamic conditional correlation fractionally integrated asymmetric power ARCH (c-DCC-FIAPARCH) process, controlling main financial time-series features such as asymmetry, volatility, and long memory. Based on daily data for 17 OECD stock markets from March 16, 1998 to February 23, 2018, we show three main findings. First, the impact of oil price shocks on the relationship between oil and stock markets is more pronounced during periods of global turmoil and asymmetric in all countries. Second, we do not observe a proper ‘contagion effect’ across all countries. Finally, this paper identifies five groups of countries based on the shape of the dynamic conditional correlation, which indicates that the relationship between oil and stock markets is segmented geographically. The findings have several policy implications.
本文重新审视了布伦特原油市场与经合组织股票市场之间的动态联系。在计量经济学上,我们使用多元校正的动态条件相关分数积分非对称功率ARCH (c- dc - fiaparch)过程,控制主要的金融时间序列特征,如不对称性、波动性和长记忆。根据1998年3月16日至2018年2月23日17个经合组织股票市场的每日数据,我们得出了三个主要发现。首先,在全球动荡和所有国家的不对称时期,油价冲击对石油和股票市场关系的影响更为明显。其次,我们没有观察到在所有国家都存在适当的“传染效应”。最后,本文根据动态条件相关的形状确定了五组国家,这表明石油和股票市场之间的关系在地理上是分割的。研究结果有几个政策含义。
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引用次数: 2
Energy policy of fossil fuel–producing countries: does global energy transition matter? 化石燃料生产国的能源政策:全球能源转型重要吗?
IF 1.6 Q4 EDUCATION & EDUCATIONAL RESEARCH Pub Date : 2020-06-01 DOI: 10.25428/1824-2979/202001-5-30
Octavio Escobar, Ulises Neri, S. Silvestre
The concept of energy transition can be interpreted in different ways depending on the nature of the agent involved. However, practitioners and existing literature agree that a country’s energy transition is the variation of fossil fuel share in the total primary energy supply (TPES). Public policies mostly focus on changing the energy mix directly or indirectly. However, the production of fossil fuels depends mostly on market-related determinants, including prices and investment in the means of production. But what is the contribution of global energy transition? The objective of this paper is to estimate to which extent public policies related to energy transition affect fossil fuel production in producing countries. For this purpose, we consider as a proxy of energy transition the evolution over 40 years of the TPES of a large panel of fossil fuel–exporting countries, which we compare to its total primary energy production (TPEP). Moreover, we analyze these effects to determine if they differ according to country characteristics, such as its level of development or its membership in OPEC. Finally, we describe the long-run and short-run effects by studying separately the effects of production investments and those of R&D investments in RES technologies.
能量转换的概念可以用不同的方式解释,这取决于所涉及的主体的性质。然而,从业者和现有文献一致认为,一个国家的能源转型是化石燃料在总一次能源供应(TPES)中所占份额的变化。公共政策大多侧重于直接或间接地改变能源结构。然而,矿物燃料的生产主要取决于与市场有关的决定因素,包括生产资料的价格和投资。但全球能源转型的贡献是什么?本文的目的是估计与能源转型相关的公共政策在多大程度上影响生产国的化石燃料生产。为此,我们将一个大型化石燃料出口国40年来的TPES演变作为能源转型的代表,并将其与一次能源生产总量(TPEP)进行比较。此外,我们分析了这些影响,以确定它们是否根据国家特征而不同,例如其发展水平或其欧佩克成员国身份。最后,通过对可再生能源技术的生产投资效应和研发投资效应的研究,分别描述了长期效应和短期效应。
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引用次数: 2
Economic integration and exchange rate arrangements in the post-soviet period : The Baltic states in comparative perspective 后苏联时期的经济一体化与汇率安排:比较视角下的波罗的海国家
IF 1.6 Q4 EDUCATION & EDUCATIONAL RESEARCH Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.25428/1824-2979/202002-229-252
Jonas Ljungberg
Which have been the consequences of the euro for integration and economic performance in the Baltic Sea region? After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the three Baltic states and Poland have been rapidly catching-up with Western Europe. The Great Recession becamea great setback for the former, while less so for Poland. A difference is the monetary policy: the Polish zloty depreciated in the critical moment of the crisis, while currency boards with the aim of joining the euro bestowed appreciation for the Baltics and Finland. Contrary to the purpose, monetary integration has not fostered integration in trade, and the share of the Eurozone in Baltic trade has stagnated. A comparison with other countries in the Baltic Sea region suggests that the euro provides “the golden fetters” of our time. Emigration, also a kind of integration, has become a safety valve with severe social and economic consequences for the Baltic states.
欧元对波罗的海地区的一体化和经济表现有哪些影响?苏联解体后,波罗的海三国和波兰迅速赶上了西欧。大衰退对前者来说是一个巨大的挫折,而对波兰来说则没有那么严重。不同之处在于货币政策:波兰兹罗提在危机的关键时刻贬值,而以加入欧元区为目标的货币委员会却让波罗的海国家和芬兰升值。与目的相反,货币一体化并没有促进贸易一体化,欧元区在波罗的海贸易中的份额停滞不前。与波罗的海地区其他国家的比较表明,欧元为我们这个时代提供了“金镣铐”。移民也是一种融合,它已经成为一个安全阀,给波罗的海国家带来了严重的社会和经济后果。
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引用次数: 1
Globalization, regulation and profitability of banks: a comparative analysis of Europe, United States, India and China 全球化、监管与银行盈利能力:欧洲、美国、印度和中国的比较分析
IF 1.6 Q4 EDUCATION & EDUCATIONAL RESEARCH Pub Date : 2019-12-01 DOI: 10.25428/1824-2979/201902-127-170
E. Paulet, H. Mavoori
The last financial crisis spurred regulators to emphasize enhanced stability indicators for financial institutions. Therefore, banks have to take into account this new element while defining their strategic decisions and their profitability. The aim of this paper is to provide evidence of the transformation of banking activities on a global scale comparing different regulatory and governance regimes. Using a sample of 102 banks from 4 geographic regions (United States, Europe, China, India) we propose pooled and regional models to highlight the parameters that explain profitability and risk management of banks. Leveraging 2000-2016 monthly data, our empirical analysis underlines the regional differences in profitability, which influence global stability of banking institutions. We find that increasing market capitalization often induces increased performance as expected; however a regional analysis of its impact reveals more nuanced geospatial variations and insights for risk management purposes. In particular, China constitutes an interesting case study as regards the impact of government on the performance of banking institutions, with this effect being cross validated by models contrasting private and public sector banks with different levels of government controls.
上一次金融危机促使监管机构强调加强金融机构的稳定指标。因此,银行在制定战略决策和盈利能力时必须考虑到这一新的因素。本文的目的是在全球范围内比较不同的监管和治理制度,为银行活动的转变提供证据。利用来自4个地理区域(美国、欧洲、中国、印度)的102家银行的样本,我们提出了集合模型和区域模型,以突出解释银行盈利能力和风险管理的参数。利用2000-2016年的月度数据,我们的实证分析强调了盈利能力的地区差异,这影响了银行机构的全球稳定性。我们发现,不断增加的市值往往会导致预期的业绩增长;然而,对其影响的区域分析揭示了更细微的地理空间变化和风险管理目的的见解。特别是,在政府对银行机构绩效的影响方面,中国构成了一个有趣的案例研究,这种影响通过对比不同程度政府控制的私营和公共部门银行的模型得到了交叉验证。
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引用次数: 2
Brexit and CDS spillovers across UK and Europe 英国脱欧和CDS在英国和欧洲的溢出效应
IF 1.6 Q4 EDUCATION & EDUCATIONAL RESEARCH Pub Date : 2019-06-01 DOI: 10.25428/1824-2979/201901-105-124
Jamal Bouoiyour, Refk Selmi
Understanding the transmission process between markets is critical for risk management and economic policy. The objective of this paper is twofold. First, it identifies when UK and European (France, Germany, Italy and Spain) Credit Default Swaps (CDSs) exhibit explosivity with respect to their past behaviors. Second, it quantifies the dynamics of CDS volatility spillover effects surrounding the UK's EU membership referendum commonly known as " Brexit ". Using a recursive identification algorithm and new spillover measures suggested by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012), quite interesting results were drawn. We detect significant build-ups in CDS prices for all countries under study soon after the day relative to the announcement of Brexit. Besides, we show that the great uncertainty over Brexit generates significant volatility spillovers across the underlined CDS. In particular, we find that UK, Italy and Spain are the " net volatility transmitters " , while France and Germany seem the " net volatility receivers ". Such information can help policy makers in undertaking decoupling policies to (1) insulate the economy from risk spillovers effects, (2) lighten the spread of the damage done by Brexit and (3) preserve the stability of financial system. To attenuate the risk transmission across CDS markets over Brexit, regulators can, for example, put forth preventive strategies by foregrounding the most influential volatility senders (UK, Italy and Spain).
了解市场之间的传导过程对风险管理和经济政策至关重要。本文的目的是双重的。首先,它确定了英国和欧洲(法国、德国、意大利和西班牙)的信用违约掉期(cds)何时表现出其过去行为的爆炸性。其次,它量化了围绕英国退欧公投的CDS波动溢出效应的动态。利用Diebold和Yilmaz(2012)提出的递归识别算法和新的溢出度量,得出了非常有趣的结果。我们发现,在英国宣布脱欧后不久,所有被研究国家的CDS价格都出现了大幅上涨。此外,我们还表明,英国脱欧的巨大不确定性会在所有CDS中产生显著的波动性溢出效应。我们特别发现,英国、意大利和西班牙是“净波动发送者”,而法国和德国似乎是“净波动接收者”。这些信息可以帮助政策制定者实施脱钩政策,以:(1)使经济免受风险溢出效应的影响,(2)减轻英国脱欧造成的损害的蔓延,(3)保持金融体系的稳定。例如,为了减弱英国退欧引发的CDS市场风险传导,监管机构可以提出预防性策略,将最具影响力的波动产生国(英国、意大利和西班牙)纳入考虑范围。
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引用次数: 2
Fiscal austerity and monetary easing: which one is to be praised for ending the euro area crisis? 财政紧缩和货币宽松:结束欧元区危机哪一个值得称赞?
IF 1.6 Q4 EDUCATION & EDUCATIONAL RESEARCH Pub Date : 2018-01-01 DOI: 10.25428/1824-2979/201801-165-189
P. Posta
In this paper I have used a framework for the analysis of public debt stability that dates back to Domar, and I have extended it in order to consider, together with the role played by the interest rate, the rate of GDP growth and domestic fiscal policy, also monetary solidarity. A special role has been reserved in the analysis to the effects of agents’ heterogeneous expectations and uncertainty. I have also considered the effects of fiscal austerity and monetary solidarity on GDP growth and interest rates, and I have concluded that the euro area crisis came to an end thanks to the latter (the former having made things even worse, if anything). Within the same framework, I have been able to discuss also some of the other proposals, including federal solidarity, that have been advanced in the literature in order to avoid or to address future euro area crises.
在本文中,我使用了一个可以追溯到Domar的框架来分析公共债务稳定性,我对其进行了扩展,以便考虑利率、GDP增长率和国内财政政策所起的作用,以及货币团结。在分析代理人异质期望和不确定性的影响时,保留了一个特殊的角色。我还考虑了财政紧缩和货币团结对GDP增长和利率的影响,我得出的结论是,欧元区危机的结束要归功于后者(如果有的话,前者使事情变得更糟)。在同样的框架内,我也能够讨论其他一些建议,包括联邦团结,这些建议已经在文献中提出,以避免或解决未来的欧元区危机。
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引用次数: 3
Out of the crisis. A radical change of strategy for the eurozone 走出危机。欧元区战略的根本改变
IF 1.6 Q4 EDUCATION & EDUCATIONAL RESEARCH Pub Date : 2017-06-01 DOI: 10.25428/1824-2979/201701-13-37
Andrea Ginzburg, A. Simonazzi
The paper argues that the crisis, mistakenly interpreted as a standard fiscal/balance of payments problem, was generated by the incomplete nature of the European institutions and a disregard for the consequences of differences in the stages of development of the member countries. The ideological pre-conception that markets are self-equilibrating through price competition has been used to justify disastrous internal devaluation policies in the belief that an austerity regime associated with institutions close to those assumed to prevail in 'core' countries would create the 'right' environment for resuming growth in the periphery. An analysis of the main phases of the development of European countries since the second post-war period provides evidence of wide differences in the productive structures of the countries of the centre and the southern periphery of Europe at the start of the Europeanization process. These differences entailed an asymmetric capacity of countries at differing levels of development to adjust to external shocks. This longer-term perspective helps us better to assess the limitations of the two alternatives that have been suggested to steer the EZ economy out of its present quagmire: internal devaluation (wage flexibility) in the deficit (Southern European) countries, or expansion of internal demand in 'core' countries (Germany). Both measures, it is argued, do not go to the root of the development and debt sustainability problems of Southern European countries, which continue to lack a sufficiently broad and differentiated productive structure. Given the differences in the levels of development of the various EU countries and their varying capacities to cope with change, fiscal policy should be assigned two complementary targets: the role of actively promoting — through investment —the removal of development bottlenecks and the renewal of the productive base, and a redistributive and compensative function. This new strategy entails the assignment of a strategic importance to investment guidance by the State through industrial policies geared to diversifying, innovating and strengthening the economic structures of peripheral countries. The paper concludes that this change of strategy is even more important today, since the crisis marks another important structural break in world trade, similar to those of the 1970s and the first decade of the new millennium.
本文认为,这场危机被错误地解释为标准的财政/国际收支问题,是由欧洲机构的不完备性和对成员国发展阶段差异的后果的忽视造成的。市场通过价格竞争实现自我平衡的意识形态先期观念,已被用来为灾难性的内部贬值政策辩护,因为人们相信,与那些被认为在“核心”国家盛行的制度密切相关的紧缩制度,将为外围国家恢复增长创造“正确”的环境。对战后第二次时期以来欧洲国家发展的主要阶段的分析提供了证据,证明在欧洲化进程开始时,欧洲中心和南部边缘国家的生产结构存在巨大差异。这些差异导致处于不同发展水平的国家适应外部冲击的能力不对称。这种长期视角有助于我们更好地评估两种替代方案的局限性,这两种替代方案被建议引导欧元区经济走出目前的困境:赤字国家(南欧)的内部贬值(工资灵活性),或“核心”国家(德国)的内部需求扩张。有人认为,这两项措施都没有从根本上解决南欧国家的发展和债务可持续性问题,这些国家仍然缺乏足够广泛和有区别的生产结构。鉴于欧盟各国发展水平的差异及其应对变化的不同能力,财政政策应被赋予两个互补的目标:通过投资积极促进消除发展瓶颈和恢复生产基础的作用,以及再分配和补偿功能。这项新战略要求国家通过旨在使外围国家的经济结构多样化、革新和加强的工业政策,对投资指导赋予战略重要性。报告的结论是,这种战略转变在今天显得更为重要,因为这场危机标志着世界贸易又一次重大的结构性断裂,类似于上世纪70年代和新千年头十年的情况。
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引用次数: 5
Business Cycle Accounting: Bulgaria after the introduction of the currency board arrangement (1999-2014) 经济周期会计:引入货币发行局安排后的保加利亚(1999-2014)
IF 1.6 Q4 EDUCATION & EDUCATIONAL RESEARCH Pub Date : 2016-11-01 DOI: 10.25428/1824-2979/201702-197-219
Aleksandar Vasilev
This paper focuses on explaining the economic fluctuations in Bulgaria after the introduction of the currency board arrangement in 1997, the period of macroeconomic stability that ensued, the EU accession, and the episode of the recent global financial crisis. This paper follows Chari et al. (2002) and performs business cycle accounting (BCA) for Bulgaria during the period 1999-2014. As in Cavalcanti (2007), who studies the Portuguese business cycles, most of the volatility in output per capita in Bulgaria over the period is due to variations in the efficiency and labor wedges.
本文的重点是解释保加利亚在1997年引入货币发行局安排后的经济波动,随后的宏观经济稳定时期,加入欧盟,以及最近全球金融危机的插曲。本文遵循Chari等人(2002),并在1999-2014年期间对保加利亚进行商业周期会计(BCA)。正如卡瓦尔康蒂(2007)研究葡萄牙商业周期时指出的那样,保加利亚人均产出在这一时期的大部分波动是由于效率和劳动力楔子的变化。
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引用次数: 39
Did China follow the East Asian development model 中国是否遵循了东亚发展模式
IF 1.6 Q4 EDUCATION & EDUCATIONAL RESEARCH Pub Date : 2009-12-01 DOI: 10.1017/CBO9781139962858.009
A. Boltho, M. Weber
China is located in East Asia and, just as Japan, Taiwan or (South) Korea at earlier stages of their development, has now grown very rapidly for some three decades. That is not enough, however, for it to qualify for membership of the club. The East Asian development model has a number of additional and important characteristics. Four are selected for discussion: the almost constant encouragement given to investment, the manufacturing sector and external competitiveness, and pursued via a variety of fairly interventionist industrial, trade and financial policies; a concomitant belief in the virtues of intense domestic (Japan and Taiwan) and foreign (Korea) competition; a set of broadly sensible and appropriate macroeconomic policies; and a number of favourable (pre-)conditions, such as the presence of a homogeneous population, a relatively high stock of human capital, reasonable income equality and fairly authoritarian governments. China, since reforms began in the late 1970s, has shared some of these characteristics, but not all. In particular, it is still much more of a command economy than the other three countries have ever been, yet, at the same time, has embraced globalization with, arguably, much greater enthusiasm than was done, in earlier times, by Japan, Taiwan or Korea. If China's experience, however, is compared with that of other, more or less successful, developing countries, the similarities with the East Asia development model would seem to dwarf such differences
中国位于东亚,就像日本、台湾或(韩国)在发展的早期阶段一样,现在已经快速增长了大约30年。然而,这还不足以使它有资格成为该俱乐部的成员。东亚发展模式还有其他一些重要特点。本文选择了四个方面进行讨论:对投资、制造业和外部竞争力给予几乎持续的鼓励,并通过各种相当干涉主义的工业、贸易和金融政策来实现;随之而来的是对激烈的国内(日本和台湾)和国外(韩国)竞争的好处的信念;一套大体合理和适当的宏观经济政策;还有一些有利的(前提)条件,比如同质人口的存在、相对较高的人力资本存量、合理的收入平等和相当专制的政府。自20世纪70年代末开始改革以来,中国已经具备了其中的一些特征,但并非全部。尤其值得一提的是,与其他三个国家相比,中国仍然更像一个计划经济,然而,与此同时,可以说,它以比早期日本、台湾或韩国更大的热情接受了全球化。然而,如果将中国的经验与其他或多或少成功的发展中国家进行比较,中国与东亚发展模式的相似之处似乎会使这些差异相形见绌
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引用次数: 57
期刊
European Journal of Comparative Economics
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