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Editor’s Letter 编辑的信
Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-02-28 DOI: 10.3905/jpe.2019.22.2.001
F. Mathis
Dave bliDe Publisher This Spring 2019 issue of The Journal of Private Equity represents 5,147 private capital funds an increase of more than 40% from 3,484 funds in the market between 2009–2019. A high percentage of the fundraising, especially in North America and Europe, targeted infrastructure and natural resource investments—sectors less sensitive to a slowdown in economic activity. The resurgence in economic activity since the Global Financial Recession in 2008 has contributed to the strong rise in valuations. Thus, 2018 saw a record 5,106 private equity-backed buyout deals up from 4,829 in 2017. The economic recovery over the past decade has helped private equity outperform public equity indexes. This outperformance, was evident particularly in 2018 as public markets became severely impacted by rising interest rates and unexpected economic and political uncertainties. Last year, private equity experienced a positive exit environment which resulted in large distributions to their investors. Thus, growing new and established wealthy investors continue to favor private equity because of this gap in returns. However, as suggested in the front cover quote, high valuations may compress net IRR when it is time to reward LPs and other investors. This compression might narrow the private equity premium over public markets especially if any expected global economic slowdown for 2019 is short-lived, and LP and other investor pressures continue to increase creativity and additional f lexibility in GP fees. This month the annual 2019 Preqin Global Private Equity & Venture Capital Report will be released with a forward by Mark O’Hare, CEO of Preqin. Mr. O’Hare begins by identifying four fundamental forces that have helped the private equity asset class expand and contribute to the global economy. First, Mark identifies the importance that the private equity governance model combines closely engaged mediumto long-term active owners that provide capital, leadership, and technical skills, and energy to lead the companies they invest into performing successfully. Second, O’Hare points out that major global investors must meet their return requirement in an increasingly lower-return environment. Nevertheless, third, Mark emphasizes that private equity has consistently delivered superior risk-adjusted returns compared to public markets. Moreover, the fourth point Mark reinforces that a virtuous circle of LP earnings from private equity portfolios since 2011 has driven the fundraising environment as LP’s have made new private equity fund commitments and investments. The result has been to
Dave bliDe出版社《私募股权杂志》2019年春季版共有5147只私募资本基金,比2009-2019年市场上的3484只基金增长了40%以上。高比例的筹款,特别是在北美和欧洲,针对的是基础设施和自然资源投资,这些行业对经济活动放缓不太敏感。自2008年全球金融衰退以来,经济活动的复苏推动了估值的强劲上升。因此,2018年有创纪录的5106笔私募股权支持的收购交易,高于2017年的4829笔。过去十年的经济复苏帮助私人股本跑赢了公共股本指数。这种优异表现在2018年尤为明显,因为公共市场受到利率上升和意外的经济和政治不确定性的严重影响。去年,私募股权经历了一个积极的退出环境,导致向投资者进行了大量分配。因此,由于这种回报差距,越来越多的新投资者和老牌富裕投资者继续青睐私募股权。然而,正如封面报价中所建议的那样,当该奖励LP和其他投资者时,高估值可能会压缩净内部收益率。这种压缩可能会缩小私募股权相对于公开市场的溢价,特别是如果2019年全球经济放缓的预期是短暂的,LP和其他投资者的压力继续增加全科医生费用的创造力和灵活性。本月,Preqin首席执行官Mark O'Hare将发布年度《2019 Preqin全球私募股权与风险投资报告》。奥黑尔首先指出了帮助私募股权资产类别扩张并为全球经济做出贡献的四大基本力量。首先,Mark指出了私募股权治理模式结合紧密参与的中长期活跃所有者的重要性,这些所有者提供资本、领导力、技术技能和能量,以领导他们投资的公司取得成功。其次,奥黑尔指出,全球主要投资者必须在回报率越来越低的环境中满足他们的回报要求。然而,第三,马克强调,与公开市场相比,私募股权一直提供着卓越的风险调整回报。此外,第四点Mark强调,自2011年以来,LP从私募股权投资组合中获得的收益的良性循环推动了筹资环境,因为LP做出了新的私募股权基金承诺和投资。结果是
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引用次数: 0
Variant-Triggered Multiple-Based Probabilistic Valuation Model (VTMP) for Private Equity Investments 私募股权投资的变量触发多重概率估值模型(VTMP)
Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-02-28 DOI: 10.3905/JPE.2019.22.2.066
Manu Sharma
This article explores developing a valuation methodology for private equity investment. Investors use either relative valuation based on multiples for revenue, operating income, and EBITDA, or they use discounted cash flow analysis to estimate a company’s equity price. The approach presented in this article incorporates a combination of relative valuation multiples along with weights for each of the relative valuation variants (revenue, operating income, and EBITDA), as well as probability analysis to develop a valuation methodology. Probability analysis is used instead of discounting future cash flows, as it helps in holding the current valuation while taking into consideration the length of the investment holding period for private equity investments.
本文探讨了私募股权投资的估值方法。投资者要么使用基于收入、营业收入和息税折旧及摊销前利润倍数的相对估值,要么使用贴现现金流分析来估计公司的股价。本文提出的方法结合了相对估值倍数以及每个相对估值变量(收入、营业收入和息税折旧及摊销前利润)的权重,以及概率分析,以制定估值方法。使用概率分析而不是贴现未来现金流,因为它有助于保持当前估值,同时考虑私募股权投资的投资持有期长度。
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引用次数: 0
Drivers of Stock Investment Decision: An Orthogonal Linear Transformation Approach 股票投资决策的驱动因素:一种正交线性变换方法
Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-02-28 DOI: 10.3905/jpe.2019.22.2.055
R. Isidore, P. Christie
According to the expected utility theory, investment decisions are a result of the tradeoff between deferred consumption and immediate consumption. Several drivers influence the stock investment decision in the bizarre equity environment. A survey of 436 secondary equity investors residing in Chennai, India, explores the influence of 20 variables on their stock investment decision. Using principal component factor analysis followed by varimax rotation, the 20 variables became five key factors of five decision-making tools. Including fundamental analysis, economic analysis, industry analysis, company analysis, advocate recommendation, and technical analysis. Financial advisors and wealth managers may use this research to identify the tool used by their clients (investors) to make stock investment decisions, and hence, guide them accordingly.
根据预期效用理论,投资决策是递延消费和即时消费之间权衡的结果。在奇异的股权环境中,几个驱动因素影响股票投资决策。一项针对居住在印度金奈的436名二级股权投资者的调查,探讨了20个变量对他们股票投资决策的影响。采用主成分因子分析和方差最大旋转,20个变量成为五种决策工具的五个关键因素。包括基本面分析、经济分析、行业分析、公司分析、倡导者推荐、技术分析。财务顾问和财富管理者可能会利用这项研究来确定他们的客户(投资者)用于做出股票投资决策的工具,从而为他们提供相应的指导。
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引用次数: 1
The “Small World” of Private Equity Funds 私募股权基金的“小世界”
Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-02-28 DOI: 10.3905/jpe.2019.22.2.027
Gianfranco Gianfrate, Francesco Brambati
The authors explore the structure of the network of relationships between 225 private equity firms arranging “club deals” between 2000 and 2017 with different private equity firms. After using the tools of social network analysis to assess this structure and the prominence of the players within it, they find that the network is dominated by few central players, suggesting the existence of a “small world” of relationships. Some players are found to act as a brokers of relationships between other players, despite having a lower number of connections, increasing the resources exchanged in the network. Network centrality is shown to have the largest economic effect on the likelihood of club deal formation. This finding supports the idea that the establishment of private equity consortiums is not merely for capital constraint motivations or portfolio diversification, but also to increase social capital and ensure future deal flow.
作者探讨了2000年至2017年间225家私募股权公司与不同私募股权公司之间安排“俱乐部交易”的关系网络结构。在使用社会网络分析工具来评估这种结构和其中参与者的突出地位之后,他们发现网络由少数核心参与者主导,这表明存在一个“小世界”的关系。有些玩家被发现充当其他玩家之间关系的中间人,尽管他们的连接数量较少,但却增加了网络中交换的资源。网络中心性对俱乐部交易形成的可能性具有最大的经济影响。这一发现支持了私募股权财团的建立不仅仅是出于资本约束动机或投资组合多元化,而是为了增加社会资本和确保未来的交易流量。
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引用次数: 0
Mature and Not Mature Enough: Comparing Private Equity in Developed and Emerging Markets 成熟与不够成熟:比较发达市场和新兴市场的私募股权
Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-02-28 DOI: 10.3905/jpe.2019.22.2.009
Darek Klonowski
International private equity faces transition issues. In developed markets, it show signs of industry maturation (i.e., lower returns compared with the past, slower rates of growth in the value of fundraising and investing, and ever-increasing accumulation of “dry powder”). In contrast, private equity in emerging markets experiences some evolutionary pressures (i.e., volatile but growing returns, inconsistent growth rates in key statistics, and institutional challenges). This dichotomy creates multiple problems for limited partners and general partners regarding asset allocation, liquidity considerations, and search for premium returns. This article evaluates these issues in detail.
国际私人股本面临着转型问题。在发达市场,它显示出行业成熟的迹象(即,与过去相比,回报率较低,筹资和投资价值的增长速度较慢,“干粉”的积累不断增加)。相比之下,新兴市场的私募股权经历了一些演化压力(即,回报不稳定但不断增长,关键统计数据的增长率不一致,以及制度挑战)。这种二分法给有限合伙人和普通合伙人在资产配置、流动性考虑和寻求溢价回报方面带来了多重问题。本文将详细评估这些问题。
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引用次数: 1
The Role of Monetary Policy in Achieving Economic Stability and Growth in Iraq 2011–2016 货币政策在实现伊拉克2011-2016年经济稳定和增长中的作用
Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-02-28 DOI: 10.3905/jpe.2019.22.2.083
Ali Hassan Zayer
This article analyzes the effectiveness of monetary policy in achieving economic stability and growth for Iraq after a new law gave the Central Bank full independence from government intervention. The new authority gave the Central Bank the ability to control the money supply in order to achieve price stability. In addition, the Central Bank is now responsible for exchange rate stability and the building of strong foreign currency reserves. However, due to lack of investment vision, thus far the country has failed to exploit the more stable environment to achieve growth and economic prosperity.
本文分析了在新法律赋予中央银行完全独立于政府干预之后,货币政策在实现伊拉克经济稳定和增长方面的有效性。新当局赋予中央银行控制货币供应以实现价格稳定的能力。此外,中央银行现在负责稳定汇率和建立强大的外汇储备。然而,由于缺乏投资眼光,该国迄今未能利用更稳定的环境来实现增长和经济繁荣。
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引用次数: 1
Private Equity Program Breadth and Strategic Asset Allocation 私募股权项目广度和战略资产配置
Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-02-28 DOI: 10.3905/jpe.2019.22.2.019
Alexander Rudin, Jason Mao, N. Zhang, A. Fink
It is quite often the case that investors form views on private equity program return and cash flow profiles by analyzing broad-based swaths of the private equity industry, while side-stepping idiosyncratic risks associated with narrower, realistic baskets of private equity pools. This article remedies this by performing an empirical analysis of private equity historical performance while accounting for program diversification. Comparing a private equity program to peer group averages is somewhat unfair, as such methodology favors larger programs, arguably without merit. The authors explain a way to correct for this bias. Finally, the authors present a probabilistic strategic asset allocation framework for private equity programs that help make informed trade-offs between breadth, strategy mix, and associated costs.
通常情况下,投资者通过分析私募股权行业的广泛领域,对私募股权项目的回报和现金流状况形成看法,同时回避与更窄、更现实的私募股权池篮子相关的特殊风险。本文通过在考虑项目多元化的同时对私募股权的历史表现进行实证分析来弥补这一点。将私募股权项目与同行群体的平均水平进行比较有点不公平,因为这种方法有利于更大的项目,可以说毫无价值。作者解释了一种纠正这种偏见的方法。最后,作者提出了一个用于私募股权项目的概率战略资产配置框架,该框架有助于在广度、战略组合和相关成本之间进行明智的权衡。
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引用次数: 0
Attention Private Equity and Venture Capitalists: Do You Know How to Manage Investment Portfolio Trade Risks? 关注私募股权和风险资本家:你知道如何管理投资组合交易风险吗?
Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-02-28 DOI: 10.3905/JPE.2019.22.2.036
Doreen M. Edelman, A. E. Baker
In today’s trade policy environment, it seems as if there is a new business risk every day. One day, it is sanctions on Chinese entities for doing business in North Korea; the next day, it is the activities of Russian oligarchs. Then companies are hit with four waves of increased import duties on steel, aluminum, and most raw materials and finished products from China. Even if firms are not importing on their own, US manufacturers are receiving “the letter” stating that they must pay additional fees on parts and other inputs. Sometimes the affected products simply involve imported packaging or aluminum can made in America from imported raw material. With so much change and uncertainty, how do investors identify and evaluate these and other trade-related risks that may impact their portfolio companies?
在当今的贸易政策环境下,似乎每天都有新的商业风险。有一天,它是对在朝鲜做生意的中国实体的制裁;第二天,它是俄罗斯寡头的活动。随后,中国对钢铁、铝以及大多数原材料和制成品征收的四波进口关税对企业造成了冲击。即使企业不自行进口,美国制造商也会收到“信函”,要求它们必须为零部件和其他投入支付额外费用。有时受影响的产品仅仅涉及进口包装,或者铝可以用进口原材料在美国生产。面对如此多的变化和不确定性,投资者如何识别和评估这些风险以及其他可能影响其投资组合公司的贸易相关风险?
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引用次数: 0
On Contango, Backwardation, and Seasonality in Index Futures 论指数期货的连续性、滞后性和季节性
Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-02-06 DOI: 10.3905/jpe.2019.1.076
Mohd Asraf Abd Wahab, Azhar Mohamad, I. Sifat
The authors investigate contango and backwardation formations and seasonality traits in Malaysia over 22 years spanning 1995 to 2017. Employing graphical observations and statistical tests, contango and backwardation traits appear through market expectations, seasonality, cost of carry model predictions, and index volatility. Unit root, cointegration, and Granger causality tests are employed to assess the existence of long-term relationships between KLCI (cash/spot index) and FKLI (stock index futures) contracts and the direction of the causality relationship. The results are suggestive of cointegration between the futures price index and the spot index in Malaysia. Moreover, a long-run relationship exists between the two variables—a result of backwardation’s predictive ability to find cash market bottoms. Malaysian markets show backwardation in April to June and August, while December is consistently in contango and exhibits moderately high success in the use of a cost-of-carry model in predicting contango and backwardation.
作者调查了马来西亚从1995年到2017年的22年中的溢价和溢价形成以及季节性特征。通过图形观察和统计检验,通过市场预期、季节性、结转成本模型预测和指数波动性,可以看出溢价和回冲特征。采用单位根、协整和格兰杰因果关系检验来评估KLCI(现金/现货指数)和FKLI(股指期货)合约之间是否存在长期关系以及因果关系的方向。研究结果表明,马来西亚期货价格指数与现货指数之间存在协整关系。此外,这两个变量之间存在长期关系——这是回溯发现现金市场底部的预测能力的结果。马来西亚市场在4月至6月和8月显示了溢价,而12月一直处于溢价,并且在使用结转成本模型预测溢价和溢价方面表现出中等程度的成功。
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引用次数: 0
Case Study ista: Digging Deep into CVC’s Long-Term Investment 案例研究ista:深入挖掘CVC的长期投资
Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-02-06 DOI: 10.3905/jpe.2019.1.075
Ilja Schaab, Eric Frére
In 2017, CVC sold its target company, ista to a Chinese infrastructure investor after an investment period of 14 years. This transaction was the largest private equity exit from a German target company up to date. The authors investigate the transaction structuring and financing as well as CVC’s impact on the financial performance and business development of the target company. The analysis shows that ista grew steady regarding revenue and EBITDA, employed more people, and performed comprehensible internationalization and business area extension decisions. However, the company also seems to be condemned to success. With each new transaction cycle, the level of liabilities and interest payment obligations increased. ista had to grow and increase efficiency continuously to meet the expectations of debt, mezzanine and equity capital providers. This article provides a holistic overview of the investment phase, enabling the reader to form an opinion about CVC’s long-term involvement and to adopt the strategies used in this practical application.
2017年,CVC在投资了14年后,将其目标公司ista出售给了一位中国基础设施投资者。这笔交易是迄今为止德国目标公司最大规模的私募股权退出。作者研究了交易结构和融资以及CVC对目标公司财务业绩和业务发展的影响。分析显示,ista在收入和息税折旧及摊销前利润方面稳步增长,雇佣了更多的人,并做出了可理解的国际化和业务领域扩展决策。然而,该公司似乎也注定要获得成功。随着每一个新的交易周期,负债和利息支付义务的水平都在增加。ista必须不断增长和提高效率,以满足债务、夹层和股权资本提供商的期望。本文对投资阶段进行了全面的概述,使读者能够对CVC的长期参与形成看法,并采用该实际应用中使用的策略。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Journal of Private Equity
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