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Language training for unemployed non-natives: who benefits the most? 针对失业非本地人的语言培训:谁受益最大?
IF 1.1 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/1406099X.2020.1740403
Laura Helena Kivi, Marko Sõmer, E. Kallaste
ABSTRACT This study evaluates the local language training aimed at the unemployed in Estonia during 2015–2016. The impact of training on employment probability and labour income is estimated by combining propensity score matching with coarsened exact matching. The impact on the probability of being employed is found to be positive after the end of the lock-in effect. Two years after the start of the language training the effect is around 8 pp. The initial lock-in effect is smaller for more flexible and shorter courses, for those with lower initial level of language skills and for those living outside of the capital region. The long-term effect is higher for those with lower level of initial language skills and does not differ by the course type or region. The results indicate that the local language training helps the unemployed non-natives to find employment, but does not give them access to higher-paying positions.
本研究评估了爱沙尼亚2015-2016年针对失业人员的当地语言培训。通过倾向分数匹配和粗化精确匹配相结合的方法,估计了培训对就业概率和劳动收入的影响。在锁定效应结束后,发现对被雇用概率的影响为正。语言培训开始两年后,效果大约是8个学分。对于那些更灵活和更短的课程,对于那些初始语言技能水平较低的人以及居住在首都地区以外的人来说,最初的锁定效果较小。对于那些初始语言技能水平较低的人来说,长期效果更高,并且不会因课程类型或地区而有所不同。结果表明,当地语言培训有助于失业的非本地人找到工作,但并没有让他们获得更高收入的职位。
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引用次数: 3
Debt literacy and debt advice-seeking behaviour among Facebook users: the role of social networks 脸书用户的债务素养和寻求债务建议行为:社交网络的作用
IF 1.1 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/1406099X.2019.1693142
A. Cwynar, W. Cwynar, M. Kowerski, Kamil Filipek, Przemysław Szuba
ABSTRACT Professional advice can be perceived as a means to tackle shortcomings in the objectively measured financial literacy of consumers. However, most studies suggest that less financially literate individuals are less likely to seek experts’ financial advice. At the same time, it has been shown that financial confidence – or subjectively perceived financial literacy – is positively correlated with the propensity to request such professional advice. This study examines these puzzling effects in a sample of 1,055 Facebook users in Poland, and within an analytical framework that allows control of the potential endogeneity of financial literacy to professional advice. A series of regressions applied to the results of our survey showed that objective debt literacy – a little-studied aspect of financial literacy – was insignificant in explaining advice-seeking behaviour, although the decisions to ask for advice were positively dependent on subjective debt literacy. Such outcomes prove that subjective financial literacy should be treated as a separate construct which can predict financial behaviour above and beyond predictions based on objective financial literacy. Our findings also suggest a positive role for social networks in inducing desired financial actions. We found that respondents having access to greater resources embedded in their social networks are more inclined to seek professional debt advice.
专业建议可以被视为解决消费者客观衡量金融素养不足的一种手段。然而,大多数研究表明,缺乏理财知识的人不太可能寻求专家的理财建议。与此同时,研究表明,财务信心——或主观感知的财务素养——与请求此类专业建议的倾向呈正相关。这项研究在波兰的1055名Facebook用户样本中检验了这些令人困惑的影响,并在一个分析框架内,允许控制金融知识对专业建议的潜在内生性。应用于我们调查结果的一系列回归表明,尽管寻求建议的决定正依赖于主观债务知识,但客观债务知识(金融知识中很少研究的一个方面)在解释寻求建议的行为方面是微不足道的。这些结果证明,主观金融素养应该被视为一个独立的结构,它可以预测金融行为,超越基于客观金融素养的预测。我们的研究结果还表明,社交网络在诱导期望的财务行为方面具有积极作用。我们发现,在社交网络中获得更多资源的受访者更倾向于寻求专业的债务建议。
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引用次数: 10
Can inaction account for the incomplete exchange rate pass-through? Evidence from threshold ARDL model 不作为能解释不完全汇率吗?来自阈值ARDL模型的证据
IF 1.1 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2019-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/1406099X.2019.1654223
Karolina Konopczak
ABSTRACT Numerous empirical studies suggest that the responses of prices to exchange rate movements are muted, i.e. the exchange rate pass-through is incomplete. In this study we investigate whether this result can be explained by inaction to small changes in the exchange rate, in which case the incompleteness would constitute merely an artefact introduced by the linear specification of the pass-through equation. The results obtained for Polish industry show significant sign- and size-dependence in the sensitivity of export prices to exchange rate movements, but only in a few cases they fully account for the incompleteness of the pass-through. The tendency for inaction is to a large extent determined by industry’s characteristics, with sectors more technologically advanced and more involved in international activities, more willing or able to absorb exchange rate movements in their markups, thereby stabilizing their prices in the destination markets.
大量实证研究表明,价格对汇率变动的反应是沉默的,即汇率传递是不完全的。在本研究中,我们探讨了这一结果是否可以通过对汇率的微小变化不采取行动来解释,在这种情况下,不完备性将仅仅构成传递方程的线性规范引入的人工产物。波兰工业的结果表明,出口价格对汇率变动的敏感性具有显著的符号依赖性和规模依赖性,但只有在少数情况下,它们才能充分说明传递的不完全性。不作为的倾向在很大程度上是由工业的特点决定的,因为工业部门的技术更先进,更多地参与国际活动,更愿意或能够在加价时吸收汇率变动,从而稳定其在目的地市场的价格。
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引用次数: 2
Firm productivity, heterogeneity and macroeconomic dynamics: a data-driven investigation 企业生产率、异质性和宏观经济动态:一项数据驱动的调查
IF 1.1 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2019-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/1406099X.2019.1633897
Mihnea Constantinescu, Aurelija Proškutė
ABSTRACT In this paper, we offer a unique firm-level view of the empirical regularities underlying the evolution of the Lithuanian economy over the period of 2000–2014. Employing a novel dataset, we investigate key distributional moments of real and financial variables of Lithuanian firms. We focus in particular on the issues related to productivity, firm birth and death and the associated employment creation and destruction across firm sizes, industry classification and trade status (exporting vs. non-exporting). We refrain from any structural modelling attempt in order to map out the key economic processes across industries and selected firm characteristics. Nevertheless, existing theoretical and empirical findings guide our analysis and the selection of the main variables to investigate. We uncover similar regularities as already highlighted in the literature: trade participation and firm productivity are strongly positively linked, the 2008 recession has had a cleansing effect on the non-tradable sector, firm birth (death) is highly pro(counter)-cyclical. The richness of the dataset allows us to produce additional insights: for example, we observe an increasing share of exporting but a constant share of importing firms since 2000.
在本文中,我们提供了一个独特的企业层面的观点,在2000年至2014年期间立陶宛经济演变的经验规律。采用新颖的数据集,我们调查了立陶宛公司的真实和金融变量的关键分布时刻。我们特别关注与生产率、企业的诞生和死亡以及企业规模、行业分类和贸易状况(出口与非出口)相关的就业创造和破坏有关的问题。为了绘制出跨行业的关键经济过程和选定的企业特征,我们避免了任何结构建模的尝试。然而,现有的理论和实证研究结果指导我们的分析和选择的主要变量进行调查。我们发现了文献中已经强调的类似规律:贸易参与和企业生产率之间存在强烈的正相关关系,2008年的衰退对非贸易部门产生了清洁效应,企业的诞生(死亡)具有高度的顺(反)周期。数据集的丰富性使我们能够产生额外的见解:例如,我们观察到自2000年以来出口公司的份额不断增加,但进口公司的份额保持不变。
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引用次数: 1
What drives business cycle synchronization? BMA results from the European Union 是什么推动了业务周期同步?欧盟BMA结果
IF 1.1 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2019-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/1406099X.2019.1652393
K. Beck
ABSTRACT The last twenty years have brought a bulk of inconsistent results on the determinants of business cycle synchronization (BCS). Researchers have usually focused their attention on a limited set of possible determinants, not accounting for model uncertainty. For these reasons, Bayesian Model Averaging has been applied in this paper to the dataset with 43 potential determinants of BCS for the EU. There is strong evidence to claim that migration, exchange rate variability, similarity of production structures, TFP shocks, similarity in exchange rate policy, intra-industry trade, risk sharing, and capital mobility are robust determinants of BCS. Some well-established determinants such as bilateral trade, monetary policy similarity, gravity variables, and participation in a monetary union and free trade area have turned out to be fragile. The structure of trade is more important for BCS than its magnitude, as intra-industry trade and structural similarity are taking explanatory power away from the bilateral trade.
近二十年来,关于经济周期同步(BCS)的决定因素产生了大量不一致的结果。研究人员通常把注意力集中在一组有限的可能决定因素上,而不是考虑模型的不确定性。由于这些原因,本文将贝叶斯模型平均应用于具有43个欧盟BCS潜在决定因素的数据集。有强有力的证据表明,移民、汇率可变性、生产结构相似性、全要素生产率冲击、汇率政策相似性、产业内贸易、风险分担和资本流动是BCS的重要决定因素。一些成熟的决定因素,如双边贸易、货币政策相似性、重力变量以及参与货币联盟和自由贸易区,已被证明是脆弱的。对于BCS而言,贸易结构比规模更重要,因为产业内贸易和结构相似性正在削弱双边贸易的解释力。
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引用次数: 27
Bank credit and money creation in a DSGE model of a small open economy 小型开放经济DSGE模型中的银行信贷和货币创造
IF 1.1 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2019-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/1406099X.2019.1640958
Jaunius Karmelavičius, Tomas Ramanauskas
ABSTRACT By the act of lending banks do not actually intermediate pre-accumulated real resources but rather create new financial resources in the form of deposits. Therefore, bank credit needs to be modelled as a monetary phenomenon, which directly fuels domestic demand and inflationary pressures. So far, there have been just a few attempts to model banks as monetary institutions in the DSGE model. In this paper we propose a simple DSGE model, which nevertheless accommodates banks as genuinely monetary institutions and captures banks' institutional ability to create money. Our model features a small open economy with nominal prices, savers and borrowers and a banking sector. Following an exogenously induced shock to banker's willingness to lend, the bank does not have to raise deposit rates or significantly increase borrowing from abroad as deposit dynamics closely resembles that of credit, which allows us to analyse real and nominal consequences of bank credit (and money) creation.
银行的借贷行为实际上并不是预先积累的实体资源的中介,而是以存款的形式创造新的金融资源。因此,银行信贷需要被建模为一种货币现象,它直接刺激了国内需求和通胀压力。到目前为止,只有几次尝试将银行作为DSGE模型中的货币机构进行建模。在本文中,我们提出了一个简单的DSGE模型,该模型将银行视为真正的货币机构,并捕获了银行创造货币的机构能力。我们的模型的特点是一个小型的开放经济体,有名义价格、储蓄者和借款人以及银行业。在外生因素对银行家放贷意愿造成冲击之后,银行不必提高存款利率或大幅增加海外借款,因为存款动态与信贷动态非常相似,这使我们能够分析银行信贷(和货币)创造的实际和名义后果。
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引用次数: 7
Private rental housing market underdevelopment: life cycle model simulations for Poland 欠发达的私人租赁住房市场:波兰的生命周期模型模拟
IF 1.1 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2019-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/1406099X.2019.1679558
Micha l Rubaszek
ABSTRACT The share of the private rental housing market in Central and Eastern European countries is low. With a survey data from Poland, I show that strong tenure preferences of households toward owning can be attributed to both economic and psychological factors. Building on these findings, I develop a life cycle model and I conduct counterfactual simulations to evaluate how changes in the structure of the rental market affect its size. I show that in the alternative scenario, which assumes (i) a change in the quality of rental services, (ii) lowering rental prices and (iii) diminishing fiscal incentives to own, the size of the private rental market is significantly higher, which leads to welfare gains for poor households.
中欧和东欧国家私人租赁住房市场的份额很低。根据波兰的一项调查数据,我表明,家庭对自有住房的强烈使用权偏好可以归因于经济和心理因素。在这些发现的基础上,我开发了一个生命周期模型,并进行了反事实模拟,以评估租赁市场结构的变化如何影响其规模。我表明,在另一种情况下,假设(I)租赁服务质量发生变化,(ii)租金价格降低,(iii)拥有住房的财政激励减少,私人租赁市场的规模会显著增加,从而为贫困家庭带来福利收益。
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引用次数: 3
The effectiveness of fiscal policy within business cycle – Ricardians vs. non-Ricardians approach 经济周期内财政政策的有效性——李嘉图学派与非李嘉图学派方法
IF 1.1 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2019-05-02 DOI: 10.1080/1406099X.2019.1609228
P. Krajewski, Agata Szymańska
ABSTRACT This study aims to measure the impact of the share of non-Ricardian households on fiscal multipliers. We show that the share of non-Ricardian households in Hungary increased significantly after crisis began and explain why the plausible reason for this increase is the higher level of liquidity constraints during crisis. We also show that after crisis, when the share of non-Ricardians in Hungary was very high, the impact of government spending shocks on GDP was almost twice as strong as before the Great Recession. Thus, the results of the study indicate that there is some trade-off between the effectiveness of fiscal policy as a tool of GDP stabilization and household access to the credit market.
摘要本研究旨在衡量非李嘉图家庭份额对财政乘数的影响。我们表明,匈牙利非李嘉图家庭的份额在危机开始后显着增加,并解释了为什么这种增长的合理原因是危机期间流动性约束水平较高。我们还表明,危机后,当匈牙利非李嘉图人的比例非常高时,政府支出冲击对GDP的影响几乎是大衰退前的两倍。因此,研究结果表明,财政政策作为GDP稳定工具的有效性与家庭获得信贷市场之间存在某种权衡。
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引用次数: 0
Who cares? Evidence on informal and formal home care use in Estonia 谁在乎呢?爱沙尼亚非正式和正式家庭护理使用的证据
IF 1.1 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2019-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/1406099X.2019.1578478
I. Mozhaeva
ABSTRACT Despite increasing attention to long-term care (LTC) and related challenges in the Estonian social policy agenda, the distributional fairness of LTC services in the country has received very limited attention. Using SHARE data, we address informal and formal home care services and identify the socio-economic factors that drive or hinder their use among the Estonian elderly. The relationship between informal and formal home care utilization is estimated applying the new approach to instrumental variable method proposed by Lewbel [2012. Using heteroscedasticity to identify and estimate mismeasured and endogenous regressor models. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 30(1), 67–80]. We find that it is important to distinguish among informal care provided by household members, other relatives and non-relatives because the same socio-economic factors might differentially affect the propensity to use these kinds of care. The estimation results indicate that informal care provided by non-relatives complements formal home care. LTC policy in Estonia ensures the absence of tangible financial, ethnic and urban/rural barriers to the use of formal home care.
尽管爱沙尼亚社会政策议程中对长期护理(LTC)和相关挑战的关注越来越多,但该国LTC服务的分配公平性却受到了非常有限的关注。使用SHARE数据,我们讨论了非正式和正式的家庭护理服务,并确定了推动或阻碍爱沙尼亚老年人使用这些服务的社会经济因素。非正式和正式的家庭护理利用之间的关系估计采用新的方法,工具变量法由Lewbel[2012]提出。使用异方差来识别和估计错测和内源性回归模型。商业与经济统计,30(1),67-80。我们发现区分由家庭成员、其他亲属和非亲属提供的非正式照顾是很重要的,因为相同的社会经济因素可能会不同地影响使用这些照顾的倾向。估计结果显示,非亲属提供的非正式照顾对正式的家庭照顾有补充作用。爱沙尼亚的长期家庭护理政策确保在使用正式家庭护理方面不存在有形的财政、种族和城市/农村障碍。
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引用次数: 7
Wage dynamics and worker mobility during deep recessions 深度衰退期间的工资动态和工人流动性
IF 1.1 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2019-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/1406099X.2018.1556898
Anete Pajuste, H. Ruffo
ABSTRACT We provide empirical evidence of the relationship between downward wage rigidity and unemployment volatility by comparing wage dynamics and worker mobility during the Great Recession in two countries where wages adjusted very differently: Latvia and Spain. Using a panel of social security administrative data, we find that wages in Spain were rigid even during periods of rising unemployment. In contrast, Latvian wages were reduced and wage cuts affected 60 percent of jobs. At the same time, the elasticity of workers' transition rates into and out of unemployment to productivity shocks was four times higher in Spain than in Latvia, and these responses were more persistent in Spain. This evidence is consistent with theoretical models that show that unemployment volatility is higher when wages are rigid.
摘要:我们通过比较拉脱维亚和西班牙这两个工资调整非常不同的国家在大衰退期间的工资动态和工人流动性,为工资刚性下降与失业波动之间的关系提供了实证证据。使用一组社会保障行政数据,我们发现即使在失业率上升的时期,西班牙的工资也很高。相比之下,拉脱维亚的工资减少了,工资削减影响了60%的工作岗位。与此同时,西班牙工人进入和退出失业率对生产力冲击的弹性是拉脱维亚的四倍,而且这些反应在西班牙更为持久。这一证据与理论模型一致,理论模型表明,当工资刚性时,失业率的波动性更高。
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引用次数: 2
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Baltic Journal of Economics
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