Abstract Background: Mental wellbeing of employees is crucial for successful organizations. Psychosocial interventions that target highly contagious individuals (i.e., individuals that can ‘transmit’ their wellbeing to others) could efficiently improve overall wellbeing in the workplace. Objectives: Using the magnitudes of effects observed in existing studies on psychosocial interventions and the contagion of mental wellbeing, we aimed to examine how the wellbeing of a group (based on WHO-5 Well-Being Index scores) changes if interventions are provided to highly contagious people instead of randomly selected individuals. Methods/Approach: Based on the data on mental wellbeing of 414 nursing home employees, we created a social network that includes individual levels of wellbeing and the strength of the connection between people. Simulation-based influence-maximization was used on the network and interventions were interventions were provided to either contagious or randomly selected individuals. Results: Overall, mental wellbeing of the group increased slightly more when individuals had received a simulated psychosocial intervention in order of contagiousness compared to the cases in which interventions were provided to randomly selected individuals. Conclusions: Selectively targeting highly contagious individuals could be an efficient approach to improving wellbeing in organizations, especially in social contexts, where the contagion of mental wellbeing is likelier.
{"title":"Improving Mental Wellbeing in Organizations with Targeted Psychosocial Interventions","authors":"D. Lipovac, László Hajdu, S. Wie, A. Nyrud","doi":"10.2478/bsrj-2020-0017","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/bsrj-2020-0017","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Background: Mental wellbeing of employees is crucial for successful organizations. Psychosocial interventions that target highly contagious individuals (i.e., individuals that can ‘transmit’ their wellbeing to others) could efficiently improve overall wellbeing in the workplace. Objectives: Using the magnitudes of effects observed in existing studies on psychosocial interventions and the contagion of mental wellbeing, we aimed to examine how the wellbeing of a group (based on WHO-5 Well-Being Index scores) changes if interventions are provided to highly contagious people instead of randomly selected individuals. Methods/Approach: Based on the data on mental wellbeing of 414 nursing home employees, we created a social network that includes individual levels of wellbeing and the strength of the connection between people. Simulation-based influence-maximization was used on the network and interventions were interventions were provided to either contagious or randomly selected individuals. Results: Overall, mental wellbeing of the group increased slightly more when individuals had received a simulated psychosocial intervention in order of contagiousness compared to the cases in which interventions were provided to randomly selected individuals. Conclusions: Selectively targeting highly contagious individuals could be an efficient approach to improving wellbeing in organizations, especially in social contexts, where the contagion of mental wellbeing is likelier.","PeriodicalId":43772,"journal":{"name":"Business Systems Research Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2020-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89407327","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Background: Besides visiting the main tourist attractions in Slovenia, many tourists want to spend their free time in the countryside as well, but the number of farming establishments in Slovenia diminished distinctly in the last years. Objectives: This paper aims to develop a system dynamics model, with the goal to analyse dynamics of the diversification of agricultural holdings into farm tourism activities in Slovenia. Methods/Approach: A system dynamics methodology was chosen to model the diversification in farm tourism. First, we present a basic concept of a system dynamics model with a causal loop diagram. Further, a system dynamics model with different scenarios is presented. Results: The main feedback loops were identified, and the simulation model was used to analyse different simulation scenarios of the transition of farming establishments into farm tourism facilities. Conclusions: The model provides the answers to the strategic questions about the dynamics of transfer into tourist farms, using several simulation scenarios. The transition mainly relies on subsidies, promotion of diversification and the growth of rural tourism, which provides a relevant direction for the development of future incentives.
{"title":"A System Dynamics Approach to Decision-making Tools in Farm Tourism Development","authors":"M. Žibert, Č. Rozman, A. Škraba, B. Prevolšek","doi":"10.2478/bsrj-2020-0020","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/bsrj-2020-0020","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Background: Besides visiting the main tourist attractions in Slovenia, many tourists want to spend their free time in the countryside as well, but the number of farming establishments in Slovenia diminished distinctly in the last years. Objectives: This paper aims to develop a system dynamics model, with the goal to analyse dynamics of the diversification of agricultural holdings into farm tourism activities in Slovenia. Methods/Approach: A system dynamics methodology was chosen to model the diversification in farm tourism. First, we present a basic concept of a system dynamics model with a causal loop diagram. Further, a system dynamics model with different scenarios is presented. Results: The main feedback loops were identified, and the simulation model was used to analyse different simulation scenarios of the transition of farming establishments into farm tourism facilities. Conclusions: The model provides the answers to the strategic questions about the dynamics of transfer into tourist farms, using several simulation scenarios. The transition mainly relies on subsidies, promotion of diversification and the growth of rural tourism, which provides a relevant direction for the development of future incentives.","PeriodicalId":43772,"journal":{"name":"Business Systems Research Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2020-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89031354","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Background: Over the last 20 years, process mining has become a vibrant research area due to the advances in data management technologies and techniques and the advent of new process mining tools. Recently, the links between process mining and simulation modelling have become an area of interest. Objectives: The objective of the paper was to demonstrate and assess the role of process mining results as an input for discrete-event simulation modelling, using two different datasets, one of which is considered data-poor while the other one data-rich. Methods/Approach: Statistical calculations and process maps were prepared and presented based on the event log data from two case studies (smart mobility and higher education) using a process mining tool. Then, the implications of the results across the building blocks (entities, activities, control-flows, and resources) of simulation modelling are discussed. Results: Apart from providing a rationale and the framework for simulation that is more efficient modelling based on process mining results, the paper provides contributions in the two case studies by deliberating and identifying potential research topics that could be tackled and supported by the new combined approach. Conclusions: Event logs and process mining provide valuable information and techniques that could be a useful input for simulation modelling, especially in the first steps of building discreteevent models, but also for validation purposes.
{"title":"Process Mining Contributions to Discrete-event Simulation Modelling","authors":"Mario Jadrić, Ivana Ninčević Pašalić, M. Ćukušić","doi":"10.2478/bsrj-2020-0015","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/bsrj-2020-0015","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Background: Over the last 20 years, process mining has become a vibrant research area due to the advances in data management technologies and techniques and the advent of new process mining tools. Recently, the links between process mining and simulation modelling have become an area of interest. Objectives: The objective of the paper was to demonstrate and assess the role of process mining results as an input for discrete-event simulation modelling, using two different datasets, one of which is considered data-poor while the other one data-rich. Methods/Approach: Statistical calculations and process maps were prepared and presented based on the event log data from two case studies (smart mobility and higher education) using a process mining tool. Then, the implications of the results across the building blocks (entities, activities, control-flows, and resources) of simulation modelling are discussed. Results: Apart from providing a rationale and the framework for simulation that is more efficient modelling based on process mining results, the paper provides contributions in the two case studies by deliberating and identifying potential research topics that could be tackled and supported by the new combined approach. Conclusions: Event logs and process mining provide valuable information and techniques that could be a useful input for simulation modelling, especially in the first steps of building discreteevent models, but also for validation purposes.","PeriodicalId":43772,"journal":{"name":"Business Systems Research Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2020-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91004869","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Background: In the last years, the concept of sustainability has been receiving global attention from academics, the public sector and practitioners. The high level of industrialization has contributed to the increase of environmental impacts on the environment and the society. To give a sustainable answer to the industrial sector, more strategies aimed at reducing the environmental and social impacts should be considered. Objectives: This research aims to evaluate the level of environmental practices in a set of companies from the northern region of Portugal. Methods/Approach: In order to achieve the objective of this research, several steps were taken, and approach is mainly based on an online questionnaire administered in a set of companies. Results: The initial results show that companies are progressing when it comes to the implementation of measures and practices related to sustainability. Conclusions: The study resulted in suggestions for consulted companies, namely the need for effective mechanics to ensure compulsory but expedite environmental procedures along with procedures control, which is a key factor in ensuring sustainable and green practices.
{"title":"Green Practices as a Path towards the Sustainability: Evidence from Portuguese Companies","authors":"W. Alves, Ângela Silva, H. Rodrigues","doi":"10.2478/bsrj-2020-0012","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/bsrj-2020-0012","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Background: In the last years, the concept of sustainability has been receiving global attention from academics, the public sector and practitioners. The high level of industrialization has contributed to the increase of environmental impacts on the environment and the society. To give a sustainable answer to the industrial sector, more strategies aimed at reducing the environmental and social impacts should be considered. Objectives: This research aims to evaluate the level of environmental practices in a set of companies from the northern region of Portugal. Methods/Approach: In order to achieve the objective of this research, several steps were taken, and approach is mainly based on an online questionnaire administered in a set of companies. Results: The initial results show that companies are progressing when it comes to the implementation of measures and practices related to sustainability. Conclusions: The study resulted in suggestions for consulted companies, namely the need for effective mechanics to ensure compulsory but expedite environmental procedures along with procedures control, which is a key factor in ensuring sustainable and green practices.","PeriodicalId":43772,"journal":{"name":"Business Systems Research Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2020-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83567307","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Background: Nowadays, organizations try to improve their performance by focusing on the business process orientation (BPO) perspective. This perspective views companies as a mixture of unified business processes. A few methodologies can be used for analysing BPO maturity state. The maturity model shows the level of acceptance of the process-oriented approach in the business practice of a certain company. Recognizing different BPO levels can help companies execute, improve and manage their processes. Objectives: The primary aim of this research is to give a report on BPO maturity of Croatian companies and to stress the importance of key turning points. Methods/Approach: The cluster analysis method was used to analyse the survey results. Results: Croatian companies are currently evolving from the Defined level to the Linked level of BPO maturity. Conclusions: The results of the cluster analysis have shown that companies in Croatia have to improve all key turning points, with a special emphasis on the strategic view.
{"title":"An Investigation of Business Process Maturity: Report on Croatian Companies","authors":"L. Glavan","doi":"10.2478/bsrj-2020-0022","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/bsrj-2020-0022","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Background: Nowadays, organizations try to improve their performance by focusing on the business process orientation (BPO) perspective. This perspective views companies as a mixture of unified business processes. A few methodologies can be used for analysing BPO maturity state. The maturity model shows the level of acceptance of the process-oriented approach in the business practice of a certain company. Recognizing different BPO levels can help companies execute, improve and manage their processes. Objectives: The primary aim of this research is to give a report on BPO maturity of Croatian companies and to stress the importance of key turning points. Methods/Approach: The cluster analysis method was used to analyse the survey results. Results: Croatian companies are currently evolving from the Defined level to the Linked level of BPO maturity. Conclusions: The results of the cluster analysis have shown that companies in Croatia have to improve all key turning points, with a special emphasis on the strategic view.","PeriodicalId":43772,"journal":{"name":"Business Systems Research Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2020-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83313869","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Justin Connolly, A. Staines, R. Connolly, P. Davis, A. Boilson
Abstract Background: This paper describes the impact evaluation of a large big data platform initiative that is being undertaken in order to increase the probability of its success. The initiative, MIDAS (Meaningful Integration of Data Analytics and Services), is a European health-based Horizon 2020 project comprising a consortium of members from various universities, research institutions, and government agencies. Objectives: The purpose of the paper is to present a pioneering platform that will support healthcare policymakers in their decision-making by enabling greater and more efficient use of their data. The goal is to present and evaluate the results of the MIDAS project across four countries. Methods/Approach: The literature is replete with examples of worthwhile technology projects that have failed due to user resistance. In order to avoid such failure, and ensure the success of the final MIDAS platform, a detailed impact evaluation is being undertaken at timed periods of development. Results: This paper describes the impact evaluation process, outlining the use of Q-methodology and the development of a 36-item concourse using the HTMLQ system for that purpose. Conclusions: This research contributes to the overall understanding of how impact evaluation can be undertaken at timed periods during the development of an innovative technology for organisational purposes.
{"title":"Impact Evaluation of an Emerging European Health Project – the MIDAS Model","authors":"Justin Connolly, A. Staines, R. Connolly, P. Davis, A. Boilson","doi":"10.2478/bsrj-2020-0010","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/bsrj-2020-0010","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Background: This paper describes the impact evaluation of a large big data platform initiative that is being undertaken in order to increase the probability of its success. The initiative, MIDAS (Meaningful Integration of Data Analytics and Services), is a European health-based Horizon 2020 project comprising a consortium of members from various universities, research institutions, and government agencies. Objectives: The purpose of the paper is to present a pioneering platform that will support healthcare policymakers in their decision-making by enabling greater and more efficient use of their data. The goal is to present and evaluate the results of the MIDAS project across four countries. Methods/Approach: The literature is replete with examples of worthwhile technology projects that have failed due to user resistance. In order to avoid such failure, and ensure the success of the final MIDAS platform, a detailed impact evaluation is being undertaken at timed periods of development. Results: This paper describes the impact evaluation process, outlining the use of Q-methodology and the development of a 36-item concourse using the HTMLQ system for that purpose. Conclusions: This research contributes to the overall understanding of how impact evaluation can be undertaken at timed periods during the development of an innovative technology for organisational purposes.","PeriodicalId":43772,"journal":{"name":"Business Systems Research Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2020-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75480485","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Background: Starting from the limitations of different single-method approaches to measuring the organizational efficiency, the paper is focused on covering both the financial and non-financial factors of this concept by combining two methods, namely the Balanced Scorecard (BSC) and Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA).
{"title":"The Combined Use of Balanced Scorecard and Data Envelopment Analysis in the Banking Industry","authors":"Bošković Aleksandra, Krstić Ana","doi":"10.2478/BSRJ-2020-0001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/BSRJ-2020-0001","url":null,"abstract":"Background: Starting from the limitations of different single-method approaches to measuring the organizational efficiency, the paper is focused on covering both the financial and non-financial factors of this concept by combining two methods, namely the Balanced Scorecard (BSC) and Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA).","PeriodicalId":43772,"journal":{"name":"Business Systems Research Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2020-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.2478/BSRJ-2020-0001","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69182871","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Background: Mission statements have come to play an important role as tools for organizational value sharing. Objectives: This study aims to shed light on what types of values are highlighted in international airline alliance members’ mission statements, and whether there are significant differences or not. Methods/Approach: Quantitative content analyses have been conducted with the goal to investigate mission statements of 61 members of international airline alliances: Star Alliance, SkyTeam, and oneworld. Results: Frequency test outcomes reveal that “philosophy”, “self-concept” and “location” are the predominant components in oneworld, “philosophy” is the primary component in SkyTeam, and “philosophy” and “customer” are the focal components of Star Alliance. According to chi-square tests, Star Alliance members emphasize “customer” more often than others do, and oneworld members highlight “profitability” more often. One-way Anova tests with a post hoc analysis reveal that Star Alliance members cover more components than SkyTeam. Conclusions: The theoretical implication of these findings is that they reveal the existence of unique values among international airline alliances members offering a competitive advantage. As a practical implication, these findings will be helpful for international airline alliances and airline managers for comparative purposes.
{"title":"A Content Analysis of International Airline Alliances Mission Statements","authors":"Gang-Hoon Seo","doi":"10.2478/bsrj-2020-0007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/bsrj-2020-0007","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Background: Mission statements have come to play an important role as tools for organizational value sharing. Objectives: This study aims to shed light on what types of values are highlighted in international airline alliance members’ mission statements, and whether there are significant differences or not. Methods/Approach: Quantitative content analyses have been conducted with the goal to investigate mission statements of 61 members of international airline alliances: Star Alliance, SkyTeam, and oneworld. Results: Frequency test outcomes reveal that “philosophy”, “self-concept” and “location” are the predominant components in oneworld, “philosophy” is the primary component in SkyTeam, and “philosophy” and “customer” are the focal components of Star Alliance. According to chi-square tests, Star Alliance members emphasize “customer” more often than others do, and oneworld members highlight “profitability” more often. One-way Anova tests with a post hoc analysis reveal that Star Alliance members cover more components than SkyTeam. Conclusions: The theoretical implication of these findings is that they reveal the existence of unique values among international airline alliances members offering a competitive advantage. As a practical implication, these findings will be helpful for international airline alliances and airline managers for comparative purposes.","PeriodicalId":43772,"journal":{"name":"Business Systems Research Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2020-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84461585","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Background: Monitoring and surveillance are a fundamental part of the workplace environment, with employee performance and productivity as the main objects of scrutiny. However, many questions surround the ethical nature of managements’ ability to employ advanced digital technologies to monitor employee behaviour and performance while in the workplace. If unaddressed, these concerns have the potential to significantly impact the relationship between the employee and the employer, impacting trust in management resulting in negative attitudes and counterproductive behaviours. Objectives: The goal of this paper is to present a comprehensive review of workplace surveillance whilst outlining some of the emerging issues relating to the use of employee monitoring technologies in the workplace. Methods/Approach: A detailed review of the literature was conducted in order to identify the major issues relating to workplace surveillance. In addition, a number of practitioner-based studies were examined to extract and identify emerging trends and concerns at an industry level. Results: Workplace surveillance is on the rise; however, empirical studies are in short supply. Conclusions: The issue of workplace surveillance is an under-researched area, which requires much attention. There is a distinct need for clear measures and structures that govern the effective and fair use of communication technologies in the workplace.
{"title":"Dataveillance in the Workplace: Managing the Impact of Innovation","authors":"C. McParland, R. Connolly","doi":"10.2478/bsrj-2020-0008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/bsrj-2020-0008","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Background: Monitoring and surveillance are a fundamental part of the workplace environment, with employee performance and productivity as the main objects of scrutiny. However, many questions surround the ethical nature of managements’ ability to employ advanced digital technologies to monitor employee behaviour and performance while in the workplace. If unaddressed, these concerns have the potential to significantly impact the relationship between the employee and the employer, impacting trust in management resulting in negative attitudes and counterproductive behaviours. Objectives: The goal of this paper is to present a comprehensive review of workplace surveillance whilst outlining some of the emerging issues relating to the use of employee monitoring technologies in the workplace. Methods/Approach: A detailed review of the literature was conducted in order to identify the major issues relating to workplace surveillance. In addition, a number of practitioner-based studies were examined to extract and identify emerging trends and concerns at an industry level. Results: Workplace surveillance is on the rise; however, empirical studies are in short supply. Conclusions: The issue of workplace surveillance is an under-researched area, which requires much attention. There is a distinct need for clear measures and structures that govern the effective and fair use of communication technologies in the workplace.","PeriodicalId":43772,"journal":{"name":"Business Systems Research Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2020-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89664615","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Background: Cinema programmes are set in advance (usually with a weekly frequency), which motivates us to investigate the short-term forecasting of attendance. In the literature on the cinema industry, the issue of attendance forecasting has gained less research attention compared to modelling the aggregate performance of movies. Furthermore, unlike most existing studies, we use data on attendance at the individual show level (179,103 shows) rather than aggregate box office sales. Objectives: In the paper, we evaluate short-term forecasting models of cinema attendance. The main purpose of the study is to find the factors that are useful in forecasting cinema attendance at the individual show level (i.e., the number of tickets sold for a particular movie, time and cinema). Methods/Approach: We apply several linear regression models, estimated for each recursive sample, to produce one-week ahead forecasts of the attendance. We then rank the models based on the out-of-sample fit. Results: The results show that the best performing models are those that include cinema- and region-specific variables, in addition to movie parameters (e.g., genre, age classification) or title popularity. Conclusions: Regression models using a wide set of variables (cinema- and region-specific variables, movie features, title popularity) may be successfully applied for predicting individual cinema shows attendance in Poland.
{"title":"Forecasting Cinema Attendance at the Movie Show Level: Evidence from Poland","authors":"P. Baranowski, K. Korczak, Jarosław Zając","doi":"10.2478/bsrj-2020-0006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/bsrj-2020-0006","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Background: Cinema programmes are set in advance (usually with a weekly frequency), which motivates us to investigate the short-term forecasting of attendance. In the literature on the cinema industry, the issue of attendance forecasting has gained less research attention compared to modelling the aggregate performance of movies. Furthermore, unlike most existing studies, we use data on attendance at the individual show level (179,103 shows) rather than aggregate box office sales. Objectives: In the paper, we evaluate short-term forecasting models of cinema attendance. The main purpose of the study is to find the factors that are useful in forecasting cinema attendance at the individual show level (i.e., the number of tickets sold for a particular movie, time and cinema). Methods/Approach: We apply several linear regression models, estimated for each recursive sample, to produce one-week ahead forecasts of the attendance. We then rank the models based on the out-of-sample fit. Results: The results show that the best performing models are those that include cinema- and region-specific variables, in addition to movie parameters (e.g., genre, age classification) or title popularity. Conclusions: Regression models using a wide set of variables (cinema- and region-specific variables, movie features, title popularity) may be successfully applied for predicting individual cinema shows attendance in Poland.","PeriodicalId":43772,"journal":{"name":"Business Systems Research Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2020-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76435057","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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