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STOCK MARKET REACTION TO BREXIT ANNOUNCEMENTS: EVIDENCE FROM A NATURAL EXPERIMENT 股市对英国脱欧公告的反应:来自自然实验的证据
IF 0.7 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-09-01 DOI: 10.1142/s2194565919500180
Júlio Lobão, S. Santos
Using four Brexit-related announcements as a source of exogenous information shocks, we investigate the semi-strong form of efficiency in seven major European stock markets. Our results suggest that only the announcement of the Brexit referendum result produced statistically significant negative cumulative abnormal returns in the markets of the sample. However, with the exception of the Irish stock market, the effects ceased to be significant in a period of five trading sessions after the event. We also document an increase in trading activity, though statistically insignificant, in the day of the referendum and in the following days. Overall, our results are in line with the semi-strong form of market efficiency.
我们使用四个与英国脱欧相关的公告作为外生信息冲击的来源,研究了七个主要欧洲股票市场的半强效率形式。我们的研究结果表明,只有英国脱欧公投结果的公布才会在样本市场上产生具有统计学意义的负累积异常回报。然而,除爱尔兰股市外,这种影响在事件发生后的五个交易日内不再显著。我们还记录了在公投当天和随后几天交易活动的增加,尽管在统计上微不足道。总的来说,我们的结果符合市场效率的半强形式。
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引用次数: 2
DISCLOSURE DECISION IN AN ENTRY GAME WITH COSTLY INFORMATION INTERPRETATION 具有昂贵信息解释的进入博弈中的披露决策
IF 0.7 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-05-21 DOI: 10.1142/S2194565919500052
Eda Orhun
This paper analyzes a firm’s incentives to disclose private information related to its market situation when there is a potential competitor. However, I adopt a more realistic definition of transparency that has been mostly overlooked by the earlier literature. In a realistic situation, financial transparency does not imply that all the relevant information are automatically transmitted to the receiver of the signal but instead the available information needs to be understood. When the model is adjusted to incorporate this realistic definition of transparency, fully revealing equilibrium associated with the “Revelation Principle” does not exist anymore. It is observed that the model with interpretation costs of transparency yields both pooling and partially pooling equilibria.
本文分析了当存在潜在竞争对手时,企业披露与其市场状况相关的私人信息的动机。然而,我采用了一个更现实的透明度定义,这在很大程度上被早期的文献所忽视。在现实情况下,财务透明度并不意味着所有相关信息都自动传递给信号的接收方,而是需要了解现有的信息。当这个模型被调整到包含这个透明度的现实定义时,与“启示原则”相关的充分揭示的平衡就不再存在了。我们观察到,具有透明度解释成本的模型同时产生池化和部分池化均衡。
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引用次数: 1
GOVERNANCE EFFICIENCY, ECONOMIC SECURITY AND FEDERALISATION. THE EUROPEAN UNION AT CROSSROADS — IS IT TIME FOR CONSOLIDATION? 治理效率、经济安全和联邦化。欧盟正处于十字路口——是时候进行整合了吗?
IF 0.7 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-05-21 DOI: 10.1142/S2194565919500039
Augustin Ignatov
The European Union (EU) has certainly reduced its influence in the global economic affairs. Despite the fact that it unites 28 nations, including the former great powers such as the United Kingdom, Germany, France and Italy, the political and economic power of the community has considerably decreased starting with the second half of 2000s. The present research is undertaken with the aim of increasing the readers’ awareness regarding the necessity of enforcing the EU economic security through consolidating the authority of the supranational bodies in relation with national representatives. The objectives to be reached in this regard include assessing how much the governance efficiency alternations among the EU member countries influence the efficiency of the single market in a globalised society. It was found that several processes determined the decline of Europe’s strength including raising globalisation and increasing competition, economic weaknesses of the EU which worsened during the crisis, stagnation of the integration process, feeble leadership and lack of resoluteness, especially in the most developed EU nations, declining adherence to “core” values, migration crisis, little political commitment to protecting EU’s citizens’ interests, and countries’ individualism in promoting key initiatives.
欧洲联盟(EU)在全球经济事务中的影响力无疑有所下降。包括英国、德国、法国、意大利等前大国在内的28个国家,从2000年代后半期开始,共同体的政治、经济实力大幅下降。本研究的目的是提高读者对通过巩固超国家机构与国家代表的权威来加强欧盟经济安全必要性的认识。在这方面要达到的目标包括评估欧盟成员国之间治理效率的变化对全球化社会中单一市场效率的影响程度。研究发现,几个过程决定了欧洲实力的衰落,包括提高全球化和增加竞争,欧盟在危机期间恶化的经济弱点,一体化进程的停滞,软弱的领导和缺乏决心,特别是在最发达的欧盟国家,对“核心”价值观的坚持程度下降,移民危机,对保护欧盟公民利益的政治承诺很少,以及各国在推动关键举措方面的个人主义。
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引用次数: 1
MODEL FOR PROGNOSIS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH: ACCOUNTING OF INFLUENCE OF THE ENVIRONMENT 经济增长预测模型:环境影响的核算
IF 0.7 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-05-21 DOI: 10.1142/S2194565919500076
E. Pankratov
In this paper, we introduce a model for forecasting economic growth. The introduced model describes the dynamics of developing economies that are under conditions of a strong impact of effects related to the state of the environment.
本文介绍了一个预测经济增长的模型。所引入的模型描述了在与环境状况有关的影响的强烈影响条件下发展中经济体的动态。
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引用次数: 3
ANALYZING THE DETERMINANTS OF THE EUROPEAN UNION’S REGIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 欧盟区域经济发展的决定因素分析
IF 0.7 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-05-21 DOI: 10.1142/S2194565919500027
Augustin Ignatov
The European Union (EU) is a heterogeneous political and economic structure comprising 28 nations, differing in terms of size, population, economic development and institutional efficiency. National socio-economic context determines countries’ growth potential and their ability to compete for foreign markets. The socio-economic discrepancies present, respectively, between the Western, Northern, Southern and Eastern EU nations still persist, thus reducing the community’s ability to compete on the global market, especially with the USA, Japan and China, which are considered the main powerhouses of the world’s economy capable of challenging economic positions of the European Union. Consequently, the present research aims to assess to which extent economic growth determinants in the European Union differ taking into account the regional context. An individual per region regression analysis was developed intending to identify which are the determinants of economic development at the level of EU’s geographical regions. The results reached confirm this assumption underlining the fact that there are significant dissimilarities between the motivators of economic progress in the EU. This fact should particularly concern the European elites as these variations determine the further accentuation of development disparities not only among the countries but also between entire groups of states.
欧洲联盟(EU)是一个由28个国家组成的异质政治和经济结构,在规模、人口、经济发展和制度效率方面各不相同。国家的社会经济背景决定了国家的增长潜力和争夺国外市场的能力。目前,欧盟西部、北部、南部和东部国家之间的社会经济差异仍然存在,从而降低了欧盟在全球市场上的竞争能力,特别是与美国、日本和中国的竞争能力,这些国家被认为是世界经济的主要强国,有能力挑战欧盟的经济地位。因此,本研究旨在评估考虑到区域背景的欧盟经济增长决定因素在多大程度上存在差异。对每个区域进行了个别回归分析,旨在确定哪些是欧盟地理区域一级经济发展的决定因素。得出的结果证实了这一假设,强调了欧盟经济进步的激励因素之间存在显著差异的事实。这一事实尤其应该引起欧洲精英们的关注,因为这些变化不仅决定了国家之间,而且决定了整个国家集团之间发展差距的进一步加剧。
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引用次数: 1
FDI AS A CONTRIBUTING FACTOR TO ECONOMIC GROWTH IN BURKINA FASO: HOW TRUE IS THIS? 外国直接投资是布基纳法索经济增长的一个促进因素:这是真的吗?
IF 0.7 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-05-21 DOI: 10.1142/S2194565919500040
Zezethu Zandile, A. Phiri
Much emphasis has been placed on attracting Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into Burkina Faso as a catalyst for improved economic growth within the economy. Against the lack of empirical evidence for evaluating this claim, we use data collected from 1970 to 2017 to investigate the FDI-growth nexus for the country using the ARDL bounds cointegration analysis. Our empirical model is derived from endogenous growth theoretical framework in which FDI may have direct or spillover effects on economic growth via improved human capital development as well as technological developments reflected in urbanization and improved export growth. Our findings fail to establish any direct or indirect effects of FDI on economic growth except for FDI’s positive interaction with export-oriented growth, albeit being constrained to the short-run. Therefore, in summing up our recommendations, political reforms and the building of stronger economic ties with the international community in order to raise investor confidence, which has been historically problematic, should be at the top of the agenda for policymakers in Burkina Faso.
布基纳法索非常重视吸引外国直接投资,作为促进经济内部经济增长的催化剂。针对缺乏经验证据来评估这一说法,我们使用1970年至2017年收集的数据,使用ARDL边界协整分析来调查该国的外国直接投资增长关系。我们的实证模型来源于内生增长理论框架,其中FDI可能通过改善人力资本开发以及反映在城市化和改善出口增长中的技术发展对经济增长产生直接或溢出效应。除了FDI与出口导向型增长的积极互动外,我们的研究结果未能确定FDI对经济增长的任何直接或间接影响,尽管这种影响仅限于短期。因此,在总结我们的建议时,政治改革和与国际社会建立更强的经济联系,以提高投资者的信心,这在历史上一直存在问题,应该是布基纳法索决策者议程的首要任务。
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引用次数: 11
THE EFFECT OF GOVERNANCE ON FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT IN LATIN AMERICA — ISSUES OF MODEL SELECTION 治理对拉丁美洲外商直接投资的影响——模式选择问题
IF 0.7 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-03-01 DOI: 10.1142/S2194565919500064
Flóra Panna Biró, L. Erdey, J. Gáll, Á. Márkus
This paper examines the impact of good governance on foreign direct investment (FDI) in the Latin American countries. Even though the FDI inflows in the region are relatively high, which can be explained by the level of development of the target countries, their connections with developed countries and the available natural resources, only a few papers have examined what kind of other factors make these countries more attractive for foreign investments. This study has two main goals. First, the gravity model is used to show whether the quality of governance measured by any of the World Governance Indicators (WGI) affects the inward FDI in Latin America. Second, following the recent trend in the gravity literature, the performance of different ordinary least squares (OLS) specifications are tested and compared to the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML) estimator which is a natural alternative approach. Results according to the most efficient estimation show that good governance is mostly a factor of attractiveness but its significance depends on which indicator is used to proxy it. Our analysis also demonstrates that using a truncation on the sample or manipulating the data by adding a small number to the dependent variable makes the OLS parameter estimates extremely sensitive and yields biased, inconsistent, and inefficient results together with bad estimation of total FDI. Furthermore, the PPML method provides far better value for several indicators of goodness of fit. Thus, we argue that the PPML method should be preferred not just in trade but also in FDI gravity models.
本文研究了拉丁美洲国家善治对外国直接投资的影响。尽管该地区的FDI流入相对较高,这可以用目标国家的发展水平、与发达国家的联系以及可用的自然资源来解释,但只有少数论文研究了哪些其他因素使这些国家对外国投资更具吸引力。这项研究有两个主要目标。首先,重力模型用于显示任何世界治理指标(WGI)衡量的治理质量是否影响拉丁美洲的外来直接投资。其次,根据重力文献的最新趋势,测试了不同普通最小二乘(OLS)规范的性能,并将其与泊松伪极大似然(PPML)估计器进行了比较,这是一种自然的替代方法。根据最有效估计的结果表明,良好治理主要是一个吸引力因素,但其重要性取决于使用哪个指标来代表它。我们的分析还表明,对样本进行截断或通过在因变量中添加少量数据来操纵数据,使得OLS参数估计非常敏感,并产生有偏差、不一致和低效的结果,同时对FDI总量的估计也很差。此外,PPML方法在几个拟合优度指标上提供了更好的值。因此,我们认为PPML方法不仅适用于贸易,也适用于FDI重力模型。
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引用次数: 8
Effects of Economic Globalization, Foreign Capital Influx on Export in ECOWAS 经济全球化、外资流入对西非经共体出口的影响
IF 0.7 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2018-09-01 DOI: 10.1515/gej-2018-0055
Ousseini Amadou Maiga, Xiaojuan Hu, T. Metuge Mekongcho, Salifou Kigbadjah Coulibaly
Abstract The relationships between globalization, foreign direct investment (FDI), and exports (trade) have been the subject of in-depth studies leading to mixed and inconclusive results. This study investigates how globalization and FDI influence and affect export, as well as the responsiveness of exports to globalization shocks in the West African ECOWAS region over the period 1980–2014. To investigate these phenomena, the study uses Panel VAR, cointegration methods and long-run estimation methods to estimate the short-run, cointegration and long-run relationships, as well as the responsiveness of export shocks due to economic globalization and FDI. The Panel VAR and Granger causality test results showed that there is a positive and significant effect as well as a causal relationship between economic globalization, non-export GDP, and short-term exports. Further, the study also shows that there is no significant effect and no causal relationship between FDI and exports in the short-run, but, FDI has a positive and significant relationship with export in the long-run in the ECOWAS region. The cointegration and long-run analysis showed the existence of cointegration and a long-run relationship between exports and the regressors included in this study.
全球化、外国直接投资(FDI)和出口(贸易)之间的关系一直是深入研究的主题,导致结果好坏参半且不确定。本研究探讨了1980-2014年期间西非经共体地区的全球化和FDI如何影响和影响出口,以及出口对全球化冲击的响应性。为了研究这些现象,本研究使用Panel VAR、协整方法和长期估计方法来估计经济全球化和FDI对出口冲击的短期、协整和长期关系以及响应性。面板VAR和格兰杰因果检验结果表明,经济全球化、非出口GDP与短期出口之间存在显著的正向影响和因果关系。进一步,研究还表明,在西非经共体地区,FDI与出口在短期内不存在显著的影响和因果关系,但在长期内FDI与出口存在显著的正相关关系。协整和长期分析表明,出口与本研究纳入的回归因子之间存在协整和长期关系。
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引用次数: 6
What is the Spillover Effect of the U.S. Equity and Money Market on the Key Latin American Agricultural Exports? 美国股票和货币市场对拉美主要农产品出口的溢出效应是什么?
IF 0.7 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2018-08-31 DOI: 10.1515/gej-2018-0060
Lya Sierra, Luis Eduardo Girón, V. Girón, Andrés Girón
Abstract This paper employs a multivariate constant conditional correlation (CCC) GARCH model and the VAR-AGARCH model to examine whether the U.S. equity and money market have a volatility spillover effect on the returns of the most important agricultural export products of Latin America over the turbulent 2005–2016 period. These results indicate the strengthening of crossmarket linkages between U.S. equity and money market and agricultural raw material commodities (notably sugar and soy) during the period of an upward trend and financial turmoil.
摘要本文采用多元恒条件相关GARCH模型和VAR-AGARCH模型,考察了2005-2016年动荡时期,美国股票和货币市场对拉美最重要农产品出口产品的收益是否存在波动溢出效应。这些结果表明,在上升趋势和金融动荡期间,美国股票和货币市场与农业原材料商品(特别是糖和大豆)之间的跨市场联系得到加强。
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引用次数: 4
Regional Development Discrepancies in the Eastern European Union Analysed through the Prism of Growth Determinants 从增长决定因素的棱镜分析东欧地区发展差异
IF 0.7 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2018-08-31 DOI: 10.1515/gej-2018-0078
Augustin Ignatov
Abstract The twenty-first century is characterised by major shifts in the global economic paradigms. Europe constantly diminishes its importance in the world slowly drifting towards the secondary roles in determining the progress of human civilisation. The European Union as the main integrational structure on the continent is set to offer Europe a global perspective and consolidate the member countries’ common influence in international relations. Several enlargement waves were undertaken comprising countries of different economic development level. The main mechanism of the European Union in enhancing the economic cohesion among the member states is the Regional policy. The largest portion of financing is allocated towards enhancing the economic potential of least developed EU regions. Considering this fact, the present research is set to analyse the inter-regional development discrepancies in the Eastern European countries i.  e. Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Romania and Bulgaria in the context of raising global competition and to identify the key economic growth determinants of the nations. The results underline that there is a strong necessity to empower the prerogatives of the EU to increase its ability to decide the issues related to discrepancies reduction, infrastructure investments and improvement of the regional business opportunities.
21世纪的特点是全球经济范式的重大转变。欧洲在世界上的重要性不断降低,在决定人类文明进步方面逐渐走向次要角色。欧洲联盟作为欧洲大陆的主要一体化结构,将为欧洲提供全球视野,巩固成员国在国际关系中的共同影响。经济发展水平不同的国家进行了几次扩大。欧盟加强成员国经济凝聚力的主要机制是区域政策。资金的最大部分用于提高欧盟最不发达区域的经济潜力。考虑到这一事实,本研究旨在分析东欧国家的区域间发展差异。波兰,匈牙利,捷克共和国,斯洛伐克,罗马尼亚和保加利亚在提高全球竞争的背景下,并确定国家的主要经济增长决定因素。研究结果强调,有必要赋予欧盟特权,以提高其在减少差异、基础设施投资和改善区域商业机会等问题上的决策能力。
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引用次数: 2
期刊
Global Economy Journal
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