In this study, we estimate the housing wealth effect of households with different income levels. Since we expect the housing wealth effect to vary based on the different income levels, we use the threshold estimation technique developed in Hansen (1999) instead of imposing an exogenous criterion to divide the sample by income level. This econometric technique is developed for panels with individual-specific fixed effects. Therefore, we apply this econometric method on the findings in the existing literature to estimate the housing wealth effect, while considering the heterogeneity in different income categories. We obtain individual level data from the 2012 to 2016 Korea Household Finance and Welfare Survey (KHFWS) and find statistically significant threshold income levels, thus indicating households show different behaviors based on the threshold income. We provide the groundwork for future research to identify the target group who maximizes their wealth effect, which has housing policy implications.
{"title":"International Real Estate Review","authors":"Jinwoo Jung, Changha Jin","doi":"10.53383/100275","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.53383/100275","url":null,"abstract":"In this study, we estimate the housing wealth effect of households with different income levels. Since we expect the housing wealth effect to vary based on the different income levels, we use the threshold estimation technique developed in Hansen (1999) instead of imposing an exogenous criterion to divide the sample by income level. This econometric technique is developed for panels with individual-specific fixed effects. Therefore, we apply this econometric method on the findings in the existing literature to estimate the housing wealth effect, while considering the heterogeneity in different income categories. We obtain individual level data from the 2012 to 2016 Korea Household Finance and Welfare Survey (KHFWS) and find statistically significant threshold income levels, thus indicating households show different behaviors based on the threshold income. We provide the groundwork for future research to identify the target group who maximizes their wealth effect, which has housing policy implications.","PeriodicalId":44050,"journal":{"name":"International Real Estate Review","volume":"49 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2019-03-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80713116","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Regional interdependence among the real estate markets in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is tested by using a variety of techniques. Econometric tests that involve error correction, symmetric/asymmetric autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and structural time series models are utilized. The results reveal the absence of long-run relationships, thus indicating cross-sectional efficiency. However, strong evidence is found for both short and long-run dynamic interdependence when the model allows for asymmetric responses. Finally, the results from the structural time series modeling show that a weak form of interdependence is present, which partly shows that other factors of significant impact explain for the real estate fluctuation other than the corresponding prices of the neighboring countries. Plausible fiscal and monetary policy recommendations are presented.
{"title":"International Real Estate Review","authors":"Sulaiman T. Al-Abduljader","doi":"10.53383/100276","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.53383/100276","url":null,"abstract":"Regional interdependence among the real estate markets in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is tested by using a variety of techniques. Econometric tests that involve error correction, symmetric/asymmetric autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and structural time series models are utilized. The results reveal the absence of long-run relationships, thus indicating cross-sectional efficiency. However, strong evidence is found for both short and long-run dynamic interdependence when the model allows for asymmetric responses. Finally, the results from the structural time series modeling show that a weak form of interdependence is present, which partly shows that other factors of significant impact explain for the real estate fluctuation other than the corresponding prices of the neighboring countries. Plausible fiscal and monetary policy recommendations are presented.","PeriodicalId":44050,"journal":{"name":"International Real Estate Review","volume":"578 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2019-03-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77293437","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Due to housing stock heterogeneity, most academic discussions on price dispersion in the housing market have traditionally focused on the search behavior of consumers and neglected the housing and neighborhood characteristics that are related to price dispersion. This study applies a rich empirical data set from Taipei to explore the neighborhood characteristics that are associated with a higher degree of dispersion in housing price and associated likelihood of such. We track the housing transactions at the residential community level, and group the communities based on the coefficient of variation of the transaction prices in each community after controlling for community and housing characteristics. We apply a multinomial logistic regression to examine which neighborhood characteristics are more likely to be associated with higher price dispersion. We find that communities with higher price levels and built by government agencies are less likely to have high price dispersion, while those that are older, priced lower or have a minimum floor area of 50 pings are more likely to have higher price dispersion.
{"title":"International Real Estate Review","authors":"Y. Chiang, Y. Ku, Feng Liu, Chin‐oh Chang","doi":"10.53383/100277","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.53383/100277","url":null,"abstract":"Due to housing stock heterogeneity, most academic discussions on price dispersion in the housing market have traditionally focused on the search behavior of consumers and neglected the housing and neighborhood characteristics that are related to price dispersion. This study applies a rich empirical data set from Taipei to explore the neighborhood characteristics that are associated with a higher degree of dispersion in housing price and associated likelihood of such. We track the housing transactions at the residential community level, and group the communities based on the coefficient of variation of the transaction prices in each community after controlling for community and housing characteristics. We apply a multinomial logistic regression to examine which neighborhood characteristics are more likely to be associated with higher price dispersion. We find that communities with higher price levels and built by government agencies are less likely to have high price dispersion, while those that are older, priced lower or have a minimum floor area of 50 pings are more likely to have higher price dispersion.","PeriodicalId":44050,"journal":{"name":"International Real Estate Review","volume":"2 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2019-03-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89224358","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Benedikt Fleischmann, Carsten Fritz, Steffen P. Sebastian
With inflation rates remaining close to zero in all major developed economies for long periods of time, especially from 1998 - 2015, investors have become increasingly concerned about the potential effects of deflation on asset value. Negative inflation rates were observed between 1998 and 2009 in Hong Kong and Japan, and those economies faced several years of deflation. There is a rich body of literature on the effects of inflation hedging on the returns of stocks, bonds, and real estate. We examine asset returns for these products between 1986 and 2009, and use an ARIMA model to explore whether they offer a deflation hedge. We show that rents and real estate prices are closely linked to consumer prices, which confirms previous findings on inflation hedging. Since the relationship is generally positive and over proportional, we find that real estate is not an effective hedge against deflation. In contrast, we find no relationships between stocks or bonds and inflation. Only for Japanese bonds are we able to find a significantly negative relationship with unexpected deflation.
{"title":"International Real Estate Review","authors":"Benedikt Fleischmann, Carsten Fritz, Steffen P. Sebastian","doi":"10.53383/100273","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.53383/100273","url":null,"abstract":"With inflation rates remaining close to zero in all major developed economies for long periods of time, especially from 1998 - 2015, investors have become increasingly concerned about the potential effects of deflation on asset value. Negative inflation rates were observed between 1998 and 2009 in Hong Kong and Japan, and those economies faced several years of deflation. There is a rich body of literature on the effects of inflation hedging on the returns of stocks, bonds, and real estate. We examine asset returns for these products between 1986 and 2009, and use an ARIMA model to explore whether they offer a deflation hedge. We show that rents and real estate prices are closely linked to consumer prices, which confirms previous findings on inflation hedging. Since the relationship is generally positive and over proportional, we find that real estate is not an effective hedge against deflation. In contrast, we find no relationships between stocks or bonds and inflation. Only for Japanese bonds are we able to find a significantly negative relationship with unexpected deflation.","PeriodicalId":44050,"journal":{"name":"International Real Estate Review","volume":"40 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2019-03-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90116585","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The key issue in the hedonic price theory is that although the literature emphasises intrinsic nonlinearity in the relationship between house prices and housing characteristics, very little theoretical guidance is provided with regards to a more appropriate mathematical specification for the hedonic price function. Thus, most empirical studies make use of flexible functional forms or simple linear models which possess a direct economic meaningfulness. This theoretical paper attempts to fill this gap by using the Mortensen-Pissarides matching model to show the nonlinearity of the hedonic price function and provide insights on the more appropriate functional relationship between prices and attributes.
{"title":"International Real Estate Review","authors":"Gaetano Lisi","doi":"10.53383/100170","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.53383/100170","url":null,"abstract":"The key issue in the hedonic price theory is that although the literature emphasises intrinsic nonlinearity in the relationship between house prices and housing characteristics, very little theoretical guidance is provided with regards to a more appropriate mathematical specification for the hedonic price function. Thus, most empirical studies make use of flexible functional forms or simple linear models which possess a direct economic meaningfulness. This theoretical paper attempts to fill this gap by using the Mortensen-Pissarides matching model to show the nonlinearity of the hedonic price function and provide insights on the more appropriate functional relationship between prices and attributes.","PeriodicalId":44050,"journal":{"name":"International Real Estate Review","volume":"104 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2013-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85481661","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We have analyzed the market reaction to REIT preferred stock ratings announced by Moody's Investors Service from 1999 to 2009 that are related to four types of rating events; first time ratings, outlook changes, reviews and actual rating changes. The results suggest a significant market reaction to rating upgrades of 1.08% abnormal return, and downgrades and negative outlooks of -2.28% and -2.67% abnormal returns, respectively. Compared to the non-REIT literature, the abnormal returns are smaller in magnitude which implies a relatively smaller information asymmetry within the REIT market with diversification opportunities for global investors.
{"title":"International Real Estate Review","authors":"Klaus S. Beckmann, Changha Jin","doi":"10.53383/100167","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.53383/100167","url":null,"abstract":"We have analyzed the market reaction to REIT preferred stock ratings announced by Moody's Investors Service from 1999 to 2009 that are related to four types of rating events; first time ratings, outlook changes, reviews and actual rating changes. The results suggest a significant market reaction to rating upgrades of 1.08% abnormal return, and downgrades and negative outlooks of -2.28% and -2.67% abnormal returns, respectively. Compared to the non-REIT literature, the abnormal returns are smaller in magnitude which implies a relatively smaller information asymmetry within the REIT market with diversification opportunities for global investors.","PeriodicalId":44050,"journal":{"name":"International Real Estate Review","volume":"40 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2013-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72935872","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We estimate a demand function for household floor space in the Kanto area in Japan by using a survey questionnaire, and conduct calibrations to investigate whether effective demand is consistent with the prescribed targeted or minimum floor space in Japan¡¦s Basic Act for Housing. The results indicate that one- and two-person families can afford relatively large houses, but many three-person families with lower incomes and most four- and five-person families cannot afford housing that meets the Act¡¦s targeted housing standards. This result implies that further subsidies are needed to achieve the Act's targets.
{"title":"International Real Estate Review","authors":"M. Fukushige, N. Ishikawa","doi":"10.53383/100171","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.53383/100171","url":null,"abstract":"We estimate a demand function for household floor space in the Kanto area in Japan by using a survey questionnaire, and conduct calibrations to investigate whether effective demand is consistent with the prescribed targeted or minimum floor space in Japan¡¦s Basic Act for Housing. The results indicate that one- and two-person families can afford relatively large houses, but many three-person families with lower incomes and most four- and five-person families cannot afford housing that meets the Act¡¦s targeted housing standards. This result implies that further subsidies are needed to achieve the Act's targets.","PeriodicalId":44050,"journal":{"name":"International Real Estate Review","volume":"79 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2013-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75175240","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The main contribution of this study is to examine the extreme dependence between the real estate securities and stock markets in Australia, China, Hong Kong, Japan, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Taiwan between January 1995 and March 2011. For each market, we derive time series tail dependence coefficients (TDC) which measure how likely financial returns move in extreme market conditions by using the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) methodology provided by Engle (2002). Overall, our results indicate that Singapore, the Philippines and Hong Kong have the highest extreme real estate–stock market co-movement of at least 50%. In addition, during the global financial crisis (GFC) period, the securitized real estate and common stock markets in China, Hong Kong, Japan, the Philippines and Singapore displayed the highest extreme dependence to react together to financial turmoil. The results in this paper also show that the extreme dependence patterns of real estate stock markets are similar for many of the Asia-Pacific economies. Finally, correlation coefficients are not adequate for explaining extreme co-movements between the securitized real estate and common stock markets in the longer period, as well as in the two-year GFC periods. Our TDC modeling with Asia-Pacific securitized real estate and stock markets provide useful information and advice to international investors and risk management personnel in tactical asset allocation so as to manage the extreme dependence between securitized real estate and common stock market.
{"title":"International Real Estate Review","authors":"K. Liow, Zhuo Lee","doi":"10.53383/100168","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.53383/100168","url":null,"abstract":"The main contribution of this study is to examine the extreme dependence between the real estate securities and stock markets in Australia, China, Hong Kong, Japan, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Taiwan between January 1995 and March 2011. For each market, we derive time series tail dependence coefficients (TDC) which measure how likely financial returns move in extreme market conditions by using the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) methodology provided by Engle (2002). Overall, our results indicate that Singapore, the Philippines and Hong Kong have the highest extreme real estate–stock market co-movement of at least 50%. In addition, during the global financial crisis (GFC) period, the securitized real estate and common stock markets in China, Hong Kong, Japan, the Philippines and Singapore displayed the highest extreme dependence to react together to financial turmoil. The results in this paper also show that the extreme dependence patterns of real estate stock markets are similar for many of the Asia-Pacific economies. Finally, correlation coefficients are not adequate for explaining extreme co-movements between the securitized real estate and common stock markets in the longer period, as well as in the two-year GFC periods. Our TDC modeling with Asia-Pacific securitized real estate and stock markets provide useful information and advice to international investors and risk management personnel in tactical asset allocation so as to manage the extreme dependence between securitized real estate and common stock market.","PeriodicalId":44050,"journal":{"name":"International Real Estate Review","volume":"41 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2013-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88901286","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We examine a unique Korean data set, the Kookmin Bank apartment price index, which is based on broker appraisals, in order to shed light on how brokers determine valuation over real estate cycles. We build a repeat sales apartment price index as well as a hedonic apartment price index by using the transaction data, which have become available in the public domain since 2006, and compare them with the Kookmin Bank apartment price index. By examining the volatility in the broker appraisals as well as the partial adjustment models of broker appraisals, we find that the appraisals are smoothed. Furthermore, the smoothing is asymmetrical and greater during down markets than up markets. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that brokers impound new transaction prices by using the quality of information as weight. The extent of smoothing and asymmetry in smoothing broker appraisals persist over two subsequent cycles contrary to the expectation that they would become more sensitive to transaction prices as transaction prices become more widely spread.
{"title":"International Real Estate Review","authors":"Yun W. Park, Doowon Bang","doi":"10.53383/100169","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.53383/100169","url":null,"abstract":"We examine a unique Korean data set, the Kookmin Bank apartment price index, which is based on broker appraisals, in order to shed light on how brokers determine valuation over real estate cycles. We build a repeat sales apartment price index as well as a hedonic apartment price index by using the transaction data, which have become available in the public domain since 2006, and compare them with the Kookmin Bank apartment price index. By examining the volatility in the broker appraisals as well as the partial adjustment models of broker appraisals, we find that the appraisals are smoothed. Furthermore, the smoothing is asymmetrical and greater during down markets than up markets. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that brokers impound new transaction prices by using the quality of information as weight. The extent of smoothing and asymmetry in smoothing broker appraisals persist over two subsequent cycles contrary to the expectation that they would become more sensitive to transaction prices as transaction prices become more widely spread.","PeriodicalId":44050,"journal":{"name":"International Real Estate Review","volume":"54 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2013-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78729827","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We find that the 3-day window around funds from operations (FFO) announcements drives the momentum profits found in the literature, which deliver an average excess monthly return of 1.22% over the period of 1990-2008 and 1.59% during the post-2000 period. Excluding this announcement window, a momentum strategy does not generate any significant returns. The FFO-surprised-based portfolio formation method produces higher momentum profits than the return-based formation method. There is a significant positive serial correlation between the unexpected FFO for the next two quarters. We contribute to the current literature by documenting that the persistence of momentum profits is due to the underreaction by analysts on public information, the FFO announcement.
{"title":"International Real Estate Review","authors":"Haiwei Chen, Ansley Chua, Changha Jin","doi":"10.53383/100164","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.53383/100164","url":null,"abstract":"We find that the 3-day window around funds from operations (FFO) announcements drives the momentum profits found in the literature, which deliver an average excess monthly return of 1.22% over the period of 1990-2008 and 1.59% during the post-2000 period. Excluding this announcement window, a momentum strategy does not generate any significant returns. The FFO-surprised-based portfolio formation method produces higher momentum profits than the return-based formation method. There is a significant positive serial correlation between the unexpected FFO for the next two quarters. We contribute to the current literature by documenting that the persistence of momentum profits is due to the underreaction by analysts on public information, the FFO announcement.","PeriodicalId":44050,"journal":{"name":"International Real Estate Review","volume":"3 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2013-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88157167","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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