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International Real Estate Review 《国际房地产评论》
IF 0.7 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2009-04-30 DOI: 10.53383/100104
E. Hui, Joe T. Y. Wong
This study captures the essential elements of the price expectations of market participants in a rising market. Adopting a forward-looking approach, this paper explores the effectiveness of expectations as an indicator of forthcoming housing price changes in Hong Kong. Examination of the quarterly survey data from December 2003 to September 2007 indicates that both homeowners and non-homeowners tend to overestimate the probability of future housing price increases yet underestimate its volatility. This adds weight to the argument that market participants are generally not rational in the prediction of price movement. Homeowners, investors and potential home buyers have more or less the same level of confidence about the future market outlook. Like non-owners, they expect higher prices. The number of correct forecasts exceeds incorrect forecasts, suggesting that overall price expectations are fairly close to realization. It can be broadly concluded that the aggregate price expectations in the long run can be an appropriate forecasting tool for future market performance.
这项研究抓住了市场参与者在上涨市场中价格预期的基本要素。本文采用前瞻性的方法,探讨预期作为香港即将到来的房价变化指标的有效性。对2003年12月至2007年9月季度调查数据的分析表明,房主和非房主都倾向于高估未来房价上涨的可能性,而低估其波动性。这为市场参与者在预测价格变动时通常不理性的论点增加了分量。房主、投资者和潜在购房者对未来市场前景的信心大致相同。与非业主一样,他们预计房价会更高。正确预测的数量超过了错误预测,表明总体价格预期相当接近实现。可以大致得出结论,长期总价格预期可以作为未来市场表现的适当预测工具。
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引用次数: 0
International Real Estate Review 《国际房地产评论》
IF 0.7 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2009-04-30 DOI: 10.53383/100102
K. Gibler, P. Taltavull, J. M. Casado-Díaz, Maria A. Casado-Diaz, Vicente Rodriguez
Housing demand models based on individual consumers' utility function reflect preferences about the structure and lot, neighborhood, and location as related to socioeconomic characteristics of the occupants. As a growing proportion of aging residents in many countries are undertaking late life moves, their preferences will have an influence on destination housing markets. We examine the characteristics, attitudes and preferences about retirement housing among immigrant retirees currently living in traditional housing in a retirement destination in Alicante, Spain. Using results from a survey of German and British retirees living in the region, we find through logistic regression that preference for retirement housing is associated with aging and gaining access to in-home support services.
基于个体消费者效用函数的住房需求模型反映了与居住者社会经济特征相关的对结构和地段、邻里和位置的偏好。随着许多国家越来越多的老年居民选择晚年移居,他们的偏好将对目的地住房市场产生影响。我们研究了目前居住在西班牙阿利坎特退休目的地传统住房中的退休移民的特点、态度和偏好。利用对居住在该地区的德国和英国退休人员的调查结果,我们通过逻辑回归发现,对退休住房的偏好与老龄化和获得家庭支持服务有关。
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引用次数: 1
International Real Estate Review 《国际房地产评论》
IF 0.7 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2009-04-30 DOI: 10.53383/100106
Cathrine Filstad, Petter Gottschalk
This paper is concerned with value configurations that represent different value creation logic. We suggest the value shop as an appropriate value configuration for real estate agencies, where knowledge is the most important resource that is applied to solve problems. The knowledge organization has emerged as the dominant structure of both public and private organizations in the transition from an industrial to a knowledge society. According to the knowledge-based theory of organizations, knowledge is the main resource for an organization’s survival and success.
本文关注的是代表不同价值创造逻辑的价值配置。我们建议将价值商店作为房地产中介的一种合适的价值配置,其中知识是应用于解决问题的最重要的资源。在工业社会向知识社会过渡的过程中,知识组织已成为公共组织和私人组织的主导结构。根据组织的知识基础理论,知识是组织生存和成功的主要资源。
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引用次数: 2
International Real Estate Review 《国际房地产评论》
IF 0.7 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2009-04-30 DOI: 10.53383/100103
F. Fang, Ruichang Lu
This paper mainly conducts an empirical study of the term structure of the Shanghai office rental market. Based on 555 executed contracts in the Shanghai office rental market from 2005 to 2008, the building quality and micro location are controlled, which are generally omitted in previous studies, through ranking of buildings and dividing the sample into 11 small central business districts (CBDs). The empirical results show that there is a downward term structure in the Shanghai market, but it is not very consistent during the studied years.
本文主要对上海写字楼租赁市场的期限结构进行实证研究。以2005 - 2008年上海写字楼租赁市场成交的555份合同为样本,通过对建筑进行排序,并将样本划分为11个小的中心商务区,对以往研究中通常忽略的建筑质量和微区位进行控制。实证结果表明,上海市场存在向下的期限结构,但在研究年份间并不十分一致。
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引用次数: 0
International Real Estate Review 《国际房地产评论》
IF 0.7 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2009-04-30 DOI: 10.53383/100105
Lily Hsueh, Chih-Lung Yen
In this study, we follow the female in a cohort analysis of her housing choices in Taiwan, using data from the population and housing census for 1980, 1990 and 2000. In addition to looking at the female population as a whole, we also compare the differences between females who are heads of households and those who are not. Econometric models focusing on the tenure choice of housing and living space per person are estimated simultaneously. The age effects show that households have the highest homeownership rate and lowest amount of living space per person in their middle years. This is due to persons in their middle years having the highest accumulated wealth and also the largest household size during their life cycle. However, no clear trend can be found in the male sample with respect to the age effect in their middle years, for instance, 25-60, for both homeownership and living space. Hence, the female is probably more suitable than the male in terms of representing a household during its life-cyle. The birth cohort effect shows that the earlier a female is born, the higher is the probability that she will become a homeowner and occupy a larger living space. This result can also be found in studies on male cohorts. These findings thus raise our concerns over the disadvantages that the younger generation faces in becoming homeowners. In addition, we find that the age and birth cohort effects are very different for female-headed and non-female-headed households. Although on average, the female heads have more years of education and higher job participation rates, they have lower homeownership rates. They also benefit less from economic growth. Nevertheless, the gap between the female-headed and non-female-headed households has narrowed as the birth cohort has become younger.
本研究以1980年、1990年及2000年台湾人口及住房普查资料为研究对象,对台湾女性的住房选择进行队列分析。除了将女性人口作为一个整体来看,我们还比较了担任户主的女性与非户主的女性之间的差异。同时估计了关注住房租住权选择和人均居住空间的计量经济模型。年龄效应表明,中年家庭的住房拥有率最高,人均居住空间最小。这是由于中年的人在他们的生命周期中积累的财富最多,家庭规模也最大。然而,在男性样本中,在他们的中年,例如25-60岁,对于房屋所有权和居住空间的影响方面,没有发现明显的趋势。因此,在代表一个家庭的生命周期方面,女性可能比男性更合适。出生队列效应表明,女性出生越早,她成为房主并占据更大生活空间的概率就越高。这一结果也可以在男性队列的研究中发现。因此,这些发现引起了我们对年轻一代在成为房主时面临的不利因素的担忧。此外,我们发现女性户主和非女性户主家庭的年龄和出生队列效应有很大差异。尽管平均而言,女性校长受教育年限更长,工作参与率更高,但她们的住房拥有率较低。他们从经济增长中获得的好处也较少。然而,随着出生队列的年轻化,女户主和非女户主家庭之间的差距已经缩小。
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引用次数: 0
International Real Estate Review 《国际房地产评论》
IF 0.7 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2006-06-30 DOI: 10.53383/100066
M. Mori, A. Ziobrowski
Foreign real estate investment funds have recently been added to the practical investment opportunity sets of ordinary Japanese investors. This paper analyzes the additional diversification benefits of U.S. REITs and Australian listed property trusts (LPTs) for Japanese investors who already hold Japanese, U.S., and Australian financial assets while considering different risk definitions in a mean-lower partial moment (MLPM) framework. The study uses data from August 1994 to July 2004. The impacts of currency adjustment and risk definition on the diversification benefits are examined. Our results suggest that the additional diversification benefits of U.S. REITs and Australian LPTs can be obtained only in very limited cases by Japanese investors.
最近,外国房地产投资基金加入了日本普通投资者的实际投资机会组合。本文分析了美国REITs和澳大利亚上市房地产信托基金(LPTs)对已经持有日本、美国和澳大利亚金融资产的日本投资者的额外多元化收益,同时考虑了平均较低部分矩(MLPM)框架中不同的风险定义。该研究使用了1994年8月至2004年7月的数据。考察了货币调整和风险界定对多元化收益的影响。我们的研究结果表明,只有在非常有限的情况下,日本投资者才能获得美国REITs和澳大利亚ltp的额外多元化收益。
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引用次数: 0
International Real Estate Review 《国际房地产评论》
IF 0.7 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2006-06-30 DOI: 10.53383/100067
E. Hui, K. Yu
This study introduces a combined method, on the basis of both system dynamics and econometric modeling, in forecasting the office rental values in Hong Kong. The findings suggest that the office rental values in Hong Kong appear to be more fluctuating when the price level of the office ownership market is comparatively volatile, likely due to the over-reaction of economic trends by the supply side of the property market. It is plausible to say development lags and adjustment cost, under the current land policies in Hong Kong, are the main attributes behind this phenomenon. In order to reduce the volatility on the office market, the government should relax the approval procedures concerning changing land use, and the subsequent rearrangement of premium payment. Further, the current policies on land sales need to be revised, especially concerning the application list system. Those measures could reduce the time required and the transaction cost incurred for the supply side to adjust to the ever-changing demand.
本研究采用系统动力学与计量经济模型相结合的方法,预测香港写字楼的租金价值。研究结果显示,当写字楼物业市场的价格水平相对波动时,香港的写字楼租金似乎波动更大,这可能是由于物业市场供应方面对经济趋势的过度反应。可以说,在香港现行的土地政策下,发展滞后和调整成本是造成这一现象的主要原因。为了减少写字楼市场的波动,政府应该放宽变更土地用途的审批程序,以及随后的溢价支付重新安排。此外,现行的卖地政策需要修订,特别是有关申请名单制度的政策。这些措施可以减少供应方适应不断变化的需求所需的时间和交易成本。
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引用次数: 0
International Real Estate Review 《国际房地产评论》
IF 0.7 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2002-06-30 DOI: 10.53383/100036
Yun W. Park, Won Bang
The importance of housing investment in the national economy and its rapid growth have become distinct characteristics of the Chinese economy in recent years. However, at the same time, there is a concern that the economic growth heavily dependent on housing investment may compromise the stability and the health of the national economy. Using Granger causality analysis, this paper examines the interaction between housing investment and economic growth as well as that between non-housing investment and economic growth. We find evidence that housing investment has a stronger short run effect on economic growth than non-housing investment. We also find that housing investment has a long run effect on economic growth while economic growth has a log run effect on both housing and non-housing investment. Our findings suggest that housing investment is an important factor for the short-term fluctuations of economic growth, with its growth stimulating the economic growth and its slumps leading to downside fluctuations.
住房投资在国民经济中的重要性及其快速增长已成为近年来中国经济的鲜明特征。然而,与此同时,也有人担心,过度依赖住房投资的经济增长可能会危及国民经济的稳定和健康。本文运用格兰杰因果分析方法,考察了住房投资与经济增长、非住房投资与经济增长之间的相互作用。我们发现,住房投资对经济增长的短期效应强于非住房投资。住房投资对经济增长具有长期效应,而经济增长对住房和非住房投资均具有对数运行效应。我们的研究结果表明,住房投资是经济增长短期波动的重要因素,其增长刺激经济增长,其暴跌导致下行波动。
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引用次数: 112
On Demand: Cross-Country Evidence From Commercial Real Estate Asset Markets 需求:来自商业房地产资产市场的跨国证据
IF 0.7 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2001-06-01 DOI: 10.15396/eres2001_264
S. Ott, Timothy J. Riddiough, Ha-Chin Yi, Jiro Yoshida
Using over 25 years of quarterly U.S. and Japanese time series data, this paper examines the determinants of demand for an important class of real assets: commercial real estate. We specify a structural model of market equilibrium that considers direct effects of real investment on built asset price. Our empirical findings are consistent across countries and produce several new results. First, we find that real investment exerts a significant positive direct effect on asset price, which in turn feeds back to impact investment decisions. Second, idiosyncratic risk is found to be strongly positively related to asset price, and to complement supply effects. Third, systematic risk is priced as expected, where the strength of the relation between asset price and systematic risk is found to be higher than in previous studies of capital asset prices. Fourth, lagged values of price determinants (of up to two years) are consistently important in real asset demand estimation. Alternative explanations for our findings are analyzed and discussed. Implications for asset pricing model specification and interpretation are also considered.
本文利用超过25年的美国和日本季度时间序列数据,研究了一类重要实物资产的需求决定因素:商业房地产。我们指定了一个考虑实际投资对建筑资产价格直接影响的市场均衡结构模型。我们的实证研究结果在各国是一致的,并产生了一些新的结果。首先,我们发现实际投资对资产价格具有显著的正向直接影响,而资产价格反过来又反馈给影响投资决策。其次,发现特质风险与资产价格呈强正相关,并补充了供给效应。第三,系统风险的定价符合预期,其中发现资产价格与系统风险之间的关系强度高于以往的资本资产价格研究。第四,(最长两年的)价格决定因素的滞后值在实际资产需求估计中一直很重要。对我们的发现的其他解释进行了分析和讨论。还考虑了对资产定价模型规范和解释的影响。
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引用次数: 10
International Real Estate Review 《国际房地产评论》
IF 0.7 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 1999-06-30 DOI: 10.53383/100009
J. Quigley
Studies of the linkages between real estate prices and general economic conditions have an extensive history, beginning with tabulations suggesting the ways in which long swings in construction and price development were synchronized with long swings in aggregate economic activity (Gottlieb, 1976). Recent studies have explored the implications of alternative representations of investor expectations upon real estate construction and the cyclical behavior of housing prices and the rents for non-residential properties. These models trace through the effects upon supplier and demander behavior of differing price expectations in the real estate market. The earliest models tease out the dynamic paths of housing prices and commercial rents which arise from exogenous expectations about the future course of prices. More sophisticated models assume that households and firms have adaptive expectations about the future, assuming, for example, myopic behavior on the part of economic actors (in which they forecast that current conditions or current rates of change will continue into the future). In the most modern formulation of market dynamics, actors are assumed to have rational expectations. That is, in response to unanticipated shocks in the housing or property market, economic actors, on average, are able to predict the market response correctly and are able to act upon that knowledge. Models such as these are able to generate patterns of price change over time in response to varying conditions in economic fundamentals and in economic shocks. (See, for example, DiPasquale and Wheaton, 1992, and Case and Shiller, 1988). There has, however, been little or no research on the opposite line of causation -- the effect of changes in property markets upon subsequent economic conditions. The first part of this paper is focused on the former question –- the linkages between economic “fundamentals” and property prices. It reports on new research evaluating empirically the effect of economic conditions upon property prices. In particular, this research includes a detailed comparison of the importance of “fundamentals” upon housing prices relative to the importance of “history” in affecting outcomes. The second part of the paper focuses on the latter question -– the potential for a causal role between outcomes in the property market and the subsequent health of the overall economy. This discussion is largely speculative and suggestive –- and not based upon any tight theoretical or empirical model. The first part of the discussion is based upon a detailed body of data from the U.S. The second part of the discussion may be relevant to the economic conditions which have faced many Asian economies during the last three years. Specialists in Asian property markets will have far better access to data and hypotheses about these specific markets than I. However, I will raise a few questions that deserve more research in the analysis of the current fiscal crises in many Asian
对房地产价格与总体经济状况之间联系的研究有着悠久的历史,最早的研究是以表格的形式表明建筑业和价格发展的长期波动与总体经济活动的长期波动是同步的(Gottlieb, 1976)。最近的研究探索了投资者对房地产建设的期望的替代表示以及房价和非住宅物业租金的周期性行为的影响。这些模型追溯了房地产市场中不同价格预期对供给者和需求者行为的影响。最早的模型梳理出房价和商业租金的动态路径,这些路径源于对未来价格走势的外生预期。更复杂的模型假设家庭和企业对未来有适应性预期,例如,假设经济行为者的短视行为(他们预测当前的状况或当前的变化率将持续到未来)。在最现代的市场动力学公式中,参与者被假定具有理性预期。也就是说,在应对住房或房地产市场的意外冲击时,经济参与者平均能够正确预测市场反应,并能够根据这种知识采取行动。诸如此类的模型能够产生价格随时间变化的模式,以应对经济基本面和经济冲击的不同情况。(例如,参见DiPasquale和Wheaton, 1992, Case和Shiller, 1988)。然而,对相反的因果关系——房地产市场变化对随后经济状况的影响——很少或根本没有研究。本文的第一部分聚焦于前一个问题——经济“基本面”与房地产价格之间的联系。它报告了对经济状况对房地产价格的影响进行实证评估的新研究。尤其值得一提的是,本研究详细比较了“基本面”对房价的重要性与“历史”对影响结果的重要性。本文的第二部分关注后一个问题——房地产市场的结果与随后整体经济的健康之间可能存在因果关系。这种讨论在很大程度上是推测性和暗示性的,而不是基于任何严格的理论或经验模型。讨论的第一部分以美国的详细数据为基础,讨论的第二部分可能与许多亚洲经济体在过去三年中所面临的经济状况有关。亚洲房地产市场的专家将比我更容易获得有关这些特定市场的数据和假设。然而,在分析许多亚洲国家当前的财政危机时,我将提出一些值得更多研究的问题。
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引用次数: 3
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International Real Estate Review
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