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Use of Google Trends to Predict the Real Estate Market: Evidence from the United Kingdom 利用谷歌趋势预测房地产市场:来自英国的证据
IF 0.7 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-12-31 DOI: 10.53383/100332
G. Bulczak
This paper demonstrates how Google Trends data can be used to improve real estate market predictions. Online searches produce valuable data that precede economic decisions. This study explores the usefulness of Google search engine data in predicting the real estate markets. The results indicate that Google data can be an additional source of information for investors and policymakers. This analysis adds to the existing literature that explores the role of behavioral factors in the decision-making process. Google Trends data are identified as an important predictor of real estate market prices and sales volume.
本文演示了如何使用谷歌趋势数据来改进房地产市场预测。在线搜索可以在经济决策之前产生有价值的数据。本研究探讨了谷歌搜索引擎数据在预测房地产市场中的有用性。结果表明,谷歌数据可以成为投资者和政策制定者的额外信息来源。这一分析增加了现有的文献,探索行为因素在决策过程中的作用。谷歌趋势数据被认为是房地产市场价格和销售量的重要预测指标。
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引用次数: 2
European Mortgage Markets Versus Institutions 欧洲抵押贷款市场与金融机构
IF 0.7 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-12-31 DOI: 10.53383/100331
S. Akçay, Begüm Güler
This study aims to measure the institutional features of residential mortgage markets in the European Union (EU) countries. The institutional features of the mortgage markets include access to credit information, protection of creditor rights, and enforcement of contracts among others, and attributes that define the evolution and functioning of mortgage markets. Differences among these features lead to institutional variations in mortgage markets among countries. In this study, we measure the institutional features along four dimensions (financial, legal, openness and cultural), and compare them to a benchmark. To achieve this, composite indices (overall index and its sub-indices) are developed with the use of a factor analysis. The findings show that the institutional features of the EU mortgage markets are diverse; northern European countries and the United Kingdom (UK) take the lead with respect to the institutional environment of their mortgage markets and have markets with higher institutional quality than the others. That is, these countries have mortgage markets with a more efficient legal framework, more government transparency in policymaking, easier access to financial services and credit information, etc.
本研究旨在衡量欧盟(EU)国家住宅抵押贷款市场的制度特征。抵押贷款市场的制度特征包括获取信用信息、保护债权人权利和执行合同等,以及定义抵押贷款市场演变和功能的属性。这些特征之间的差异导致了各国抵押贷款市场的制度差异。在本研究中,我们从四个维度(金融、法律、开放和文化)来衡量制度特征,并将它们与基准进行比较。为了实现这一目标,综合指数(总体指数及其子指数)是利用因子分析开发的。研究结果表明,欧盟抵押贷款市场的制度特征是多样化的;北欧国家和英国在其抵押贷款市场的制度环境方面处于领先地位,其市场的制度质量高于其他国家。也就是说,这些国家的抵押贷款市场具有更有效的法律框架、更透明的政府决策、更容易获得金融服务和信贷信息等。
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引用次数: 0
Evaluating Different Housing Prices: Marketing and Financial Distortions 评估不同的房价:市场和金融扭曲
IF 0.7 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-12-31 DOI: 10.53383/100330
J. Raya
The aim of this paper is to evaluate the importance of housing price. We compare the evolution of three different types of housing prices (list, sale and appraisal prices). The objective is to see the marketing and financial consequences of using each type of housing price. To do this, a dataset of a real estate company and its financial intermediary with all of these types of housing prices is used. We estimate econometric models in which the dependent variables are: price (appraisal, selling or list), mark-up, loan to value and foreclosures. The results show evidence of the consequences of using a specific housing price in terms of inflation calculation, financial assets, and collateral valuation and mortgage default, among others.
本文的目的是评估房价的重要性。我们比较了三种不同类型的房价(挂牌价、销售价和评估价)的演变。目的是了解使用每种住房价格的营销和财务后果。为了做到这一点,我们使用了一个房地产公司及其金融中介的数据集,其中包含了所有这些类型的房价。我们估计计量经济模型,其中的因变量是:价格(评估、出售或上市)、加价、贷款价值比和抵押品赎回权。结果显示了在通货膨胀计算、金融资产、抵押品估值和抵押贷款违约等方面使用特定房价的后果的证据。
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引用次数: 0
Rent-Seeking by Rent Concession: An Analysis of Rent-Free Periods in the Seoul Office Market 租金优惠的寻租行为——对首尔写字楼市场免租期的分析
IF 0.7 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-12-31 DOI: 10.53383/100333
K. Ryu, Hyung Min Kim
Rent-free periods (RFPs) have been used in property markets worldwide especially during economic downturns as a discount pricing strategy in marketing. However, this research study proposes that RFPs play a role in increasing or, at least, sustaining face rent that can be reflected in the property price. This study focuses on the Korean office market which has experienced growing vacancy rates since the global financial crisis possibly leading to a decrease in effective rent with greater RFP incentives. In this period, face rent has increased as offering extended RFPs. Hence, high vacant rates with high face rent have been observed, which is seemingly contradictory against the commonly known rent-vacancy negative relationship. This research analyses the rent, transaction prices and RFPs during 2003 – 2017 in the Seoul office market. The findings reveal that positive future anticipations of owners and investors are reflected in extended RFPs to sustain and increase face rent that will eventually lead to higher property transaction prices. The role of RFPs is not effective in attracting tenants as a marketing tool. Instead, professionals, including investors/buyers, owners/sellers and real estate agencies, have been doing rent-seeking by offering rent recessions in the Seoul office market.
免租期(rfp)已在全球房地产市场中使用,特别是在经济衰退期间,作为营销中的折扣定价策略。然而,这项研究表明,rfp在增加或至少维持租金方面发挥了作用,这可以反映在房地产价格上。这项研究的重点是韩国写字楼市场,自全球金融危机以来,韩国写字楼的空置率一直在上升,这可能导致RFP激励力度加大,导致有效租金下降。在此期间,由于提供延长的rfp,面租增加了。因此,观察到高空置率和高面租金,这似乎与众所周知的租金-空置负相关关系相矛盾。本研究分析了2003 ~ 2017年首尔写字楼市场的租金、交易价格和rfp。调查结果显示,业主和投资者对未来的积极预期反映在延长的rfp中,以维持和增加面租金,最终导致更高的房地产交易价格。作为一种营销工具,rfp在吸引租户方面的作用并不有效。相反,包括投资者/买家、业主/卖家和房地产中介在内的专业人士,通过在首尔写字楼市场提供租金衰退来进行寻租。
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引用次数: 0
The Factors Affecting the Market Value/Book Value and Profitability of REITs in Turkey 影响土耳其REITs市场价值/账面价值和盈利能力的因素
IF 0.7 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-09-30 DOI: 10.53383/100328
B. Tekin
Increasing income level and the desire to live a more comfortable life in countries with an increasing population are constantly driving the demand for real estate. Real estate investment trusts (REITs) are capital market institutions that can invest in real estate, real estate-based capital market instruments, real estate projects, real estate-based rights and capital market instruments. In addition, they establish partnerships to realize specific projects, engage in other permitted activities, and are organized by the Capital Market Law in Turkey. In this study, the fixed effects panel data regression model is used to determine the financial indicators that affect the market value and profitability of the Turkey REITs that are traded in the Borsa İstanbul REITs Index. The study covers 21 REIT companies. The data set is in the period between 2010:Q1 to 2019:Q4 in the analyses. The results show that return on assets (ROA), return on equity (ROE), asset turnover, leverage, equity multiplier and current asset turnover are effective on the market to book ratio (MBR). The ratios that affect the ROA are MBR, ROE, acid-test, leverage, equity multiplier, EBITDA/sales and current asset turnover. Moreover, the ratios that affect the ROE are the ROA, MBR, acid-test, asset turnover, leverage, and equity multiplier.
在人口不断增长的国家,收入水平的提高和对更舒适生活的渴望不断推动着对房地产的需求。房地产投资信托基金(REITs)是可以投资于房地产、房地产资本市场工具、房地产项目、房地产权利和资本市场工具的资本市场机构。此外,他们建立合作伙伴关系,以实现特定项目,从事其他允许的活动,并由土耳其的资本市场法组织。本研究采用固定效应面板数据回归模型,确定影响Borsa İstanbul REITs指数中交易的土耳其REITs的市值和盈利能力的财务指标。这项研究涵盖了21家房地产投资信托基金公司。分析中的数据集为2010年第一季度至2019年第四季度。结果表明,资产收益率(ROA)、净资产收益率(ROE)、资产周转率、杠杆率、权益乘数和流动资产周转率对市净率(MBR)有影响。影响ROA的比率是MBR, ROE, acid-test,杠杆率,权益乘数,EBITDA/销售额和流动资产周转率。此外,影响ROE的比率是ROA、MBR、acid-test、资产周转率、杠杆率和权益乘数。
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引用次数: 2
The (De)merits of using Integral Transforms in Predicting Structural Break Points  利用积分变换预测结构断点的优点
IF 0.7 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-09-30 DOI: 10.53383/100327
Katlego Kola, Tumellano Sebehela
The structural break points of returns and volatility are generally illustrated by using uni-and-multivariate time series models. Despite the elegance of uni-and-multivariate models, the interchangeability of different structural break points is not well accounted for in those models. This study uses integral transforms (Fourier and Laplace) to illustrate the interchangeability of structural break points of indices. Furthermore, structural break points are validated with commonly used unit root structural break tests [(i) augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF), (ii) ADF-generalized least squares (GLS), Phillips Perron (PP) 1988 and Zivot-Andrews (ZA) 1992 tests]. The results illustrate persistent interchangeability and interconnectedness patterns of structural break points throughout the time series. Moreover, the structural break points tests confirm the findings of the integral transforms.
收益率和波动性的结构断点通常用单变量和多变量时间序列模型来表示。尽管单变量和多变量模型很优雅,但在这些模型中,不同结构断点的互换性并没有得到很好的考虑。本研究使用积分变换(傅里叶变换和拉普拉斯变换)来说明指标结构断点的互换性。此外,用常用的单位根结构断裂试验验证了结构断点[(i)增广Dickey Fuller (ADF), (ii) ADF-广义最小二乘(GLS), Phillips Perron (PP) 1988和Zivot-Andrews (ZA) 1992检验]。结果表明,在整个时间序列中,结构断点的持续互换性和相互关联性模式。此外,结构断点试验证实了积分变换的结果。
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引用次数: 0
An Empirical Method for Decomposing the Contributions of Land and Building Values to Housing Value 土地和建筑价值对住房价值贡献的实证分析方法
IF 0.7 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-09-30 DOI: 10.53383/100326
Kuan-Lun Pan, Hsiao-Jung Teng, Shih-Yuan Lin, Yu En Cheng
This paper develops an empirical method that uses two separate housing related components to estimate housing value: land and building. The artificial neural network (ANN) technique is used to iteratively solve for two hedonic models simultaneously by minimizing the difference in the observed total value and the sum of the estimated land and building values. This method enables one to objectively separate housing value into land and building components. Using actual sales transaction data from Taipei City, we estimate the land value as a share of the total housing value. The results show that the land value accounts for a higher share with older properties. The share of the land value of low-rise buildings tends to be higher than that of high-rise buildings. The share of the land value can deviate by 20 percentage points between more or less expensive housing communities within Taipei City.
本文开发了一种实证方法,使用两个独立的住房相关成分:土地和建筑来估计住房价值。利用人工神经网络(ANN)技术,通过最小化观测总价值与估算土地和建筑价值之和的差值,同时迭代求解两个享乐模型。这种方法使人们能够客观地将房屋价值分为土地和建筑部分。我们使用台北市的实际销售交易数据,估算土地价值占房屋总价值的比例。结果表明,土地价值占比较高的老物业。低层建筑占土地价值的比重往往高于高层建筑。台北市内房价较高或较低的社区之间的土地价值份额可能相差20个百分点。
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引用次数: 1
Development Strategies in a Market of High Vacancies and Sticky Rates – The Case of the Hotel Industry  高空缺率和粘性市场下的发展策略——以酒店业为例
IF 0.7 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-09-30 DOI: 10.53383/100325
Rose Neng Lai, L. Fong
This paper discusses the concurrence of vacancy and ongoing construction under inflexible rents, taking the hotel industry as an area of application. The prevalent modest occupancy in the hotel industry of the United States has led to questions about the ongoing construction of hotels, even if average daily rates (ADRs) have not been reduced to eliminate the excess supply. By constructing a framework based on a game theory approach in market equilibrium, developers can determine the optimal timing to construct the development. Given this option to build, both profit and a double-digit vacancy rate can coexist with inflexible ADRs that exceed the market equilibrium threshold. The option framework also allows the management to project occupancy rates and profits of their existing premises before entering price wars even if their rivals build new projects.
本文以酒店行业为应用领域,探讨了固定租金条件下的空置与在建并存问题。美国酒店业普遍的适度入住率引发了人们对正在进行的酒店建设的质疑,即使平均每日房价(adr)没有降低以消除过剩供应。通过构建基于市场均衡博弈方法的框架,开发者可以确定开发的最佳时机。考虑到这一选择,利润和两位数的空置率可以与超过市场均衡阈值的不灵活adr共存。期权框架还允许管理层在进入价格战之前预测其现有场所的入住率和利润,即使他们的竞争对手建立了新项目。
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引用次数: 0
On the Link between House Prices and House Permits: Asymmetric Evidence from 51 States of the United States of America 房价与房屋许可的关系:来自美国51个州的不对称证据
IF 0.7 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-09-30 DOI: 10.53383/100324
Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee, Hesam Ghodsi, Muris Hadzict
Increased issuance of housing permits is said to move house prices in either direction. If perceived as an indication of a growing housing supply, house prices are expected to decline (supply hypothesis). However, a larger number of housing permits can also reflect positive expectations about future housing demand which would drive house prices upwards (demand hypothesis). We test these two competing hypotheses by using data from each state in the United States. We estimate linear and non-linear models to test if housing permit issuance determines house prices. The results show support for both the supply and demand hypotheses in the short run for most states but only for the demand hypothesis in the long run. We also uncover asymmetric short run and long-run effects in 21 states
据说,住房许可证发放的增加会使房价朝两个方向移动。如果被认为是住房供应增加的迹象,房价预计会下降(供应假设)。然而,大量的住房许可证也可以反映出对未来住房需求的积极预期,这将推动房价上涨(需求假设)。我们通过使用来自美国每个州的数据来检验这两个相互竞争的假设。我们估计线性和非线性模型来检验住房许可证发放是否决定房价。结果表明,在大多数国家,短期内供给和需求假设都得到支持,但在长期内只支持需求假设。我们还在21个州发现了不对称的短期和长期影响
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引用次数: 3
International Real Estate Review 《国际房地产评论》
IF 0.7 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-06-30 DOI: 10.53383/100319
Kristoffer B. Birkeland, A. D'Silva, Roland Füss, A. Oust
We develop an automated valuation model (AVM) for the residential real estate market by leveraging stacked generalization and a comparable market analysis. Specifically, we combine four novel ensemble learning methods with a repeat sales method and tailor the data selection for each value estimate. We calibrate and evaluate the model for the residential real estate market in Oslo by producing out-of-sample estimates for the value of 1,979 dwellings sold in the first quarter of 2018. Our novel approach of using stacked generalization achieves a median absolute percentage error of 5.4%, and more than 96% of the dwellings are estimated within 20% of their actual sales price. A comparison of the valuation accuracy of our AVM to that of the local estate agents in Oslo generally demonstrates its viability as a valuation tool. However, in stable market phases, the machine falls short of human capability.
我们开发了一个住宅房地产市场的自动估值模型(AVM),利用堆叠泛化和可比市场分析。具体来说,我们将四种新颖的集成学习方法与重复销售方法相结合,并为每个价值估计定制数据选择。我们通过对2018年第一季度销售的1,979套住宅的价值进行样本外估计,来校准和评估奥斯陆住宅房地产市场的模型。我们使用堆叠泛化的新方法实现了5.4%的中位数绝对百分比误差,超过96%的住宅估计在其实际销售价格的20%以内。将我们的AVM的估值准确性与奥斯陆当地房地产经纪人的估值准确性进行比较,总体上证明了它作为估值工具的可行性。然而,在稳定的市场阶段,机器的能力不及人。
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引用次数: 2
期刊
International Real Estate Review
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