. In this work, we present a fractional dynamic model to describe the spread of Hepatitis B disease in human population under influence of campaign and treatment parameters. It was shown that the stability of disease-free equilibrium and disease endemic equilibrium depend on the basic reproduction number. These results are in accordance with the epidemic theory. A numerical example is given to demonstrate the validity of the results. The results show that the media campaigns and treatment increase susceptible subpopulations, reduce infectious ones, and increase recovered subpopulations, thus the model gives adequate information about the spread of the Hepatitis B virus.
{"title":"A Fractional dynamics model of hepatitis B disease spread under influence of campaign and treatment","authors":"Muhafzan","doi":"10.28919/cmbn/8085","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.28919/cmbn/8085","url":null,"abstract":". In this work, we present a fractional dynamic model to describe the spread of Hepatitis B disease in human population under influence of campaign and treatment parameters. It was shown that the stability of disease-free equilibrium and disease endemic equilibrium depend on the basic reproduction number. These results are in accordance with the epidemic theory. A numerical example is given to demonstrate the validity of the results. The results show that the media campaigns and treatment increase susceptible subpopulations, reduce infectious ones, and increase recovered subpopulations, thus the model gives adequate information about the spread of the Hepatitis B virus.","PeriodicalId":44079,"journal":{"name":"Communications in Mathematical Biology and Neuroscience","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69245754","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Parameter estimation of Weibull distribution on type III censored survival data by maximum likelihood estimator method: Case study of lung cancer patient data at Dr. Kariadi Hospital Semarang","authors":"Ardi Kurniawan, Rendi Kurnia, Eko Rahmanta, Tjahjono","doi":"10.28919/cmbn/7937","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.28919/cmbn/7937","url":null,"abstract":",","PeriodicalId":44079,"journal":{"name":"Communications in Mathematical Biology and Neuroscience","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69240820","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
R. Pontoh, Soffy Mulyani, Salma Zhahira, Octavia Aulia Wiratama, Mohamad Naufal Farras, R. Arisanti
: Indonesia, a maritime nation whose ocean area exceeds its land area, has an abundance of ocean-based natural resources, such as fish, seaweed, coral reefs, and other marine organisms. The fisheries industry is one of the potential sources of extraordinary marine resources for the Indonesian economy. The annual increase or decrease in fish production in Indonesia can be attributed to several factors, including natural influences such as climate and ocean waves, inadequate management of marine resources, unequal distribution of facilities to support increased fish production in Indonesia, and the characteristics of areas that have a significant impact on the resulting fish production. Consequently, the objective of this research is to classify provinces in Indonesia using clustering analysis so that government policy programs can be more focused and directed according to the characteristics of the clusters formed. The application of cluster analysis was based on the development of fish production data for each province in Indonesia from 2017 to 2019 obtained from the website of the Central Statistics Agency (BPS). Clustering analysis using hierarchical and non-hierarchical methods produces a dendrogram using the average linkage DTW hierarchical method, indicating the formation of two optimal clusters. Non-hierarchical clustering with two clusters produces the
{"title":"Mapping Indonesian potential fishing zone using hierarchical and non-hierarchical clustering","authors":"R. Pontoh, Soffy Mulyani, Salma Zhahira, Octavia Aulia Wiratama, Mohamad Naufal Farras, R. Arisanti","doi":"10.28919/cmbn/8088","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.28919/cmbn/8088","url":null,"abstract":": Indonesia, a maritime nation whose ocean area exceeds its land area, has an abundance of ocean-based natural resources, such as fish, seaweed, coral reefs, and other marine organisms. The fisheries industry is one of the potential sources of extraordinary marine resources for the Indonesian economy. The annual increase or decrease in fish production in Indonesia can be attributed to several factors, including natural influences such as climate and ocean waves, inadequate management of marine resources, unequal distribution of facilities to support increased fish production in Indonesia, and the characteristics of areas that have a significant impact on the resulting fish production. Consequently, the objective of this research is to classify provinces in Indonesia using clustering analysis so that government policy programs can be more focused and directed according to the characteristics of the clusters formed. The application of cluster analysis was based on the development of fish production data for each province in Indonesia from 2017 to 2019 obtained from the website of the Central Statistics Agency (BPS). Clustering analysis using hierarchical and non-hierarchical methods produces a dendrogram using the average linkage DTW hierarchical method, indicating the formation of two optimal clusters. Non-hierarchical clustering with two clusters produces the","PeriodicalId":44079,"journal":{"name":"Communications in Mathematical Biology and Neuroscience","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69245814","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Dengue fever is a significant global disease that is transmitted by female mosquitoes, specifically the Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus species. As part of efforts to control the spread of this disease, the use of mosquito repellent has emerged as an alternative. This research presents an analysis of the stability and optimal control of a dengue transmission model incorporating the use of mosquito repellent. Dynamical analysis conducted to see the impact of the control reproduction number on the stability of the equilibrium points. We find that due to the limited treatment resources, the condition of control reproduction number less than one is not enough to guarantee the disappearance of dengue from the population. Optimal control simulation conducted to see the impact of mosquito repellent intervention to reduce dengue effectively under some specific scenario.
{"title":"A stability and optimal control analysis on a dengue transmission model with mosquito repellent","authors":"","doi":"10.28919/cmbn/8134","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.28919/cmbn/8134","url":null,"abstract":"Dengue fever is a significant global disease that is transmitted by female mosquitoes, specifically the Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus species. As part of efforts to control the spread of this disease, the use of mosquito repellent has emerged as an alternative. This research presents an analysis of the stability and optimal control of a dengue transmission model incorporating the use of mosquito repellent. Dynamical analysis conducted to see the impact of the control reproduction number on the stability of the equilibrium points. We find that due to the limited treatment resources, the condition of control reproduction number less than one is not enough to guarantee the disappearance of dengue from the population. Optimal control simulation conducted to see the impact of mosquito repellent intervention to reduce dengue effectively under some specific scenario.","PeriodicalId":44079,"journal":{"name":"Communications in Mathematical Biology and Neuroscience","volume":"28 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135497817","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The object of this work is to analyze the dynamical behavior of an SIQR epidemic model incorporating the mean-reverting inhomogeneous geometric Brownian motion process (IGBM for short). As a first step, we prove that a global-in-time solution exists, and we show equally that it is unique and positive. Then, we find out an appropriate hypothetical framework leading to the existence of an ergodic stationary distribution. After that, we provide certain sufficient conditions for the disease’s exponential extinction, and we show that they match those of the deterministic version in this case. Finally, we outline some numerical simulation examples to back up our theoretical outcomes.
{"title":"Asymptotic comportment of a stochastic SIQR model with mean-reverting inhomogeneous geometric Brownian motion","authors":"","doi":"10.28919/cmbn/8195","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.28919/cmbn/8195","url":null,"abstract":"The object of this work is to analyze the dynamical behavior of an SIQR epidemic model incorporating the mean-reverting inhomogeneous geometric Brownian motion process (IGBM for short). As a first step, we prove that a global-in-time solution exists, and we show equally that it is unique and positive. Then, we find out an appropriate hypothetical framework leading to the existence of an ergodic stationary distribution. After that, we provide certain sufficient conditions for the disease’s exponential extinction, and we show that they match those of the deterministic version in this case. Finally, we outline some numerical simulation examples to back up our theoretical outcomes.","PeriodicalId":44079,"journal":{"name":"Communications in Mathematical Biology and Neuroscience","volume":"111 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135107771","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Potato virus Y (PVY) is one of the most common widespread vector-borne transmission diseases through aphids. In recent years, biologists have focused on the effect of vector preference to the spread of PVY. In this paper, according to transmission mechanism of PVY, a mathematical model of a vector-borne disease including preference behavior and vertical transmission of vector is formulated. The basic reproduction number R0 is calculated by using the next generation matrix method. The existence of a backward bifurcation presents a further sub-threshold condition below R0 for the spread of the disease by theoretical and numerical analysis. Numerical simulations suggest that vector preference plays an important role in the spread of PVY.
{"title":"Analysis of a vector preference model for potato virus Y transmission","authors":"","doi":"10.28919/cmbn/8160","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.28919/cmbn/8160","url":null,"abstract":"Potato virus Y (PVY) is one of the most common widespread vector-borne transmission diseases through aphids. In recent years, biologists have focused on the effect of vector preference to the spread of PVY. In this paper, according to transmission mechanism of PVY, a mathematical model of a vector-borne disease including preference behavior and vertical transmission of vector is formulated. The basic reproduction number R0 is calculated by using the next generation matrix method. The existence of a backward bifurcation presents a further sub-threshold condition below R0 for the spread of the disease by theoretical and numerical analysis. Numerical simulations suggest that vector preference plays an important role in the spread of PVY.","PeriodicalId":44079,"journal":{"name":"Communications in Mathematical Biology and Neuroscience","volume":"47 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135914517","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Network clustering method for preventing the spread of COVID-19 in Indonesian schools","authors":"Mokhammad Ridwan, Yudhanegara, Karunia","doi":"10.28919/cmbn/7922","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.28919/cmbn/7922","url":null,"abstract":",","PeriodicalId":44079,"journal":{"name":"Communications in Mathematical Biology and Neuroscience","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69239701","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A mixed-effects joint model with skew-t distribution for longitudinal and time-to-event data: A Bayesian approach","authors":"M. M. Ferede, S. Mwalili, G. Dagne","doi":"10.28919/cmbn/7940","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.28919/cmbn/7940","url":null,"abstract":",","PeriodicalId":44079,"journal":{"name":"Communications in Mathematical Biology and Neuroscience","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69240890","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
. The nature of epidemiological models is characterized by randomness in their coefficients, while the classical or analytical and numerical methods deal with systems with fixed coefficients, which makes these methods inappropriate for solutions of epidemiological systems that have coefficients that change with time. For that, the numerical simulation methods that deal with time change are more appropriate than other ways. The aim of the research is to apply some of these methods to the COVID-19 system. Two efficient methods used for previous studies are used to solve this system, which are Monte Carlo Finite Difference Method and Mean Latin Hypercube Finite Difference Method. For the sake of comparison, a numerical method, the finite difference method, is used to solve this system. We have reached good results that give an analysis and impression of the behavior of the Covid 19 epidemic since its inception and predict its behavior for the next years. All results have been written in graphs and tabulated.
{"title":"A reliable numerical simulation technique for solving COVID-19 model","authors":"Mahdi A. Sabea, M. A. Mohammed","doi":"10.28919/cmbn/7959","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.28919/cmbn/7959","url":null,"abstract":". The nature of epidemiological models is characterized by randomness in their coefficients, while the classical or analytical and numerical methods deal with systems with fixed coefficients, which makes these methods inappropriate for solutions of epidemiological systems that have coefficients that change with time. For that, the numerical simulation methods that deal with time change are more appropriate than other ways. The aim of the research is to apply some of these methods to the COVID-19 system. Two efficient methods used for previous studies are used to solve this system, which are Monte Carlo Finite Difference Method and Mean Latin Hypercube Finite Difference Method. For the sake of comparison, a numerical method, the finite difference method, is used to solve this system. We have reached good results that give an analysis and impression of the behavior of the Covid 19 epidemic since its inception and predict its behavior for the next years. All results have been written in graphs and tabulated.","PeriodicalId":44079,"journal":{"name":"Communications in Mathematical Biology and Neuroscience","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69242176","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
: This study has contributed to understanding a delayed prey-predator system involving cannibalism. The system is assumed to use the Holling type II functional response to describe the consuming process and incorporates the predator's refuge against the cannibalism process. The characteristics of the solution are discussed. All potential equilibrium points have been identified. All equilibrium points' local stability analyses for all time delay values are investigated. The system exhibits a Hopf bifurcation at the coexistence equilibrium, which is further demonstrated. The center manifold and normal form theorems for functional differential equations are then used to establish the direction of Hopf bifurcation and the stability of the periodic solution. To demonstrate the key findings, various numerical simulations are then run.
{"title":"The dynamics of a delayed ecological model with predator refuge and cannibalism","authors":"R. M. Hussien, R. K. Naji","doi":"10.28919/cmbn/7988","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.28919/cmbn/7988","url":null,"abstract":": This study has contributed to understanding a delayed prey-predator system involving cannibalism. The system is assumed to use the Holling type II functional response to describe the consuming process and incorporates the predator's refuge against the cannibalism process. The characteristics of the solution are discussed. All potential equilibrium points have been identified. All equilibrium points' local stability analyses for all time delay values are investigated. The system exhibits a Hopf bifurcation at the coexistence equilibrium, which is further demonstrated. The center manifold and normal form theorems for functional differential equations are then used to establish the direction of Hopf bifurcation and the stability of the periodic solution. To demonstrate the key findings, various numerical simulations are then run.","PeriodicalId":44079,"journal":{"name":"Communications in Mathematical Biology and Neuroscience","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69243646","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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