Determinants of Forward Exchange Rate and the Role of Risk Premiums (Case of CZK/EUR and CZK/USD Parities) The aim of the article is to examine the relations between forward exchange rates (maturities of 3 and 6 months), spot exchange rates, interest rate differentials, expected spot exchange rates and risk premiums on the CZK/EUR and CZK/USD parities. A model of FX speculators and arbitrageurs is devised and subsequently empirically verified in order to provide an explanation for the dynamics of forward exchange rates. The estimations of parameters of explanatory variables, which enter the covered interest rate parity, are confirmed to be statistically significant for the time period preceding the application of the exchange rate commitment by the Czech National Bank. Though the estimated parameters of future spot rates are statistically significant, their low values suggest that their impact on the quotation of forward exchange rates is rather marginal. The statistically significant estimations of constants with negative signs are interpreted as risk premiums reflecting the higher credit risk for financial investments denominated in CZK. The relations within the time series of the CZK/EUR parity were found to be distorted during the period of exchange rate commitment on the parity level of 27 CZK/EUR and during foreign exchange interventions (i.e., the estimated parameters of interest rate differentials were not statistically significant).
{"title":"Determinants of Forward Exchange Rate and the Role of Risk Premiums (Case of CZK/EUR and CZK/USD Parities)","authors":"J. Arlt, M. Mandel","doi":"10.18267/j.polek.1263","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18267/j.polek.1263","url":null,"abstract":"Determinants of Forward Exchange Rate and the Role of Risk Premiums (Case of CZK/EUR and CZK/USD Parities) The aim of the article is to examine the relations between forward exchange rates (maturities of 3 and 6 months), spot exchange rates, interest rate differentials, expected spot exchange rates and risk premiums on the CZK/EUR and CZK/USD parities. A model of FX speculators and arbitrageurs is devised and subsequently empirically verified in order to provide an explanation for the dynamics of forward exchange rates. The estimations of parameters of explanatory variables, which enter the covered interest rate parity, are confirmed to be statistically significant for the time period preceding the application of the exchange rate commitment by the Czech National Bank. Though the estimated parameters of future spot rates are statistically significant, their low values suggest that their impact on the quotation of forward exchange rates is rather marginal. The statistically significant estimations of constants with negative signs are interpreted as risk premiums reflecting the higher credit risk for financial investments denominated in CZK. The relations within the time series of the CZK/EUR parity were found to be distorted during the period of exchange rate commitment on the parity level of 27 CZK/EUR and during foreign exchange interventions (i.e., the estimated parameters of interest rate differentials were not statistically significant).","PeriodicalId":44220,"journal":{"name":"Politicka Ekonomie","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.3,"publicationDate":"2019-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67824852","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Using a cointegration, we show that there is no long-term relationship between money in the economy M and real (and nominal) GDP and CPI (US data from 1959 to 2018). There is no empirical evidence to support the textbook claim that "inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon". Only when we shorten the time series to the period before the crisis (1959-2008), there is a cointegration between CPI and M2, but only at the 10% significance level and only according to one of two co-integration tests. The relationship that existed before the crisis either had to fall apart or change. There are three possible explanations: (1) The growth of M in low-inflation economies (CPI below 10% annually) is distributed more equally between CPI and real GDP than in the event of significant changes in M. (2) The falling velocity of money after the crisis of 2008/2009. (3) The last possibility is an increase in the adequacy problem of inflation - the CPI does not adequately reflect the economic definition of inflation.
{"title":"Money and Inflation: Lost Cointegration","authors":"A. Michl","doi":"10.18267/j.polek.1255","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18267/j.polek.1255","url":null,"abstract":"Using a cointegration, we show that there is no long-term relationship between money in the economy M and real (and nominal) GDP and CPI (US data from 1959 to 2018). There is no empirical evidence to support the textbook claim that \"inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon\". Only when we shorten the time series to the period before the crisis (1959-2008), there is a cointegration between CPI and M2, but only at the 10% significance level and only according to one of two co-integration tests. The relationship that existed before the crisis either had to fall apart or change. There are three possible explanations: (1) The growth of M in low-inflation economies (CPI below 10% annually) is distributed more equally between CPI and real GDP than in the event of significant changes in M. (2) The falling velocity of money after the crisis of 2008/2009. (3) The last possibility is an increase in the adequacy problem of inflation - the CPI does not adequately reflect the economic definition of inflation.","PeriodicalId":44220,"journal":{"name":"Politicka Ekonomie","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.3,"publicationDate":"2019-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67824632","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This article builds on long-term research by authors in the field of tax burden and its impacts, incorporating a newly designed indicator of legal uncertainty in the tax area which is conceived on the basis of a detailed description of the legislation. This indicator, together with other important factors, is incorporated into the tax system model and its links and influence on the behaviour of economic actors are examined. The aim of the article is to evaluate the impact of legal uncertainty in taxation on the labour supply in the Czech Republic. From a methodological point of view, DSGE modelling and quarterly data for the period 2002-2016 are used. The main conclusion of the study is the confirmation of the negative impact of uncertainty on all examined taxes. At the same time, in all the cases, a shift from the official to the shadow economy occurs.
{"title":"Legal Uncertainty in Taxation and Its Impacts on Labour Supply in the Czech Republic","authors":"Igor Kotlán, Daniel Němec, Z. Machová","doi":"10.18267/j.polek.1246","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18267/j.polek.1246","url":null,"abstract":"This article builds on long-term research by authors in the field of tax burden and its impacts, incorporating a newly designed indicator of legal uncertainty in the tax area which is conceived on the basis of a detailed description of the legislation. This indicator, together with other important factors, is incorporated into the tax system model and its links and influence on the behaviour of economic actors are examined. The aim of the article is to evaluate the impact of legal uncertainty in taxation on the labour supply in the Czech Republic. From a methodological point of view, DSGE modelling and quarterly data for the period 2002-2016 are used. The main conclusion of the study is the confirmation of the negative impact of uncertainty on all examined taxes. At the same time, in all the cases, a shift from the official to the shadow economy occurs.","PeriodicalId":44220,"journal":{"name":"Politicka Ekonomie","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.3,"publicationDate":"2019-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67825139","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The aim of the article is to construct a model for estimating the quarterly gross value added (GVA) of the national economy (GDP) based on the results of business surveys (so-called confidence indicators) in industry, construction, commerce and services (incl. banking sector), and to set the forecast for four quarters ahead. The suitability of the applied approach is assessed using pairwise dependencies for individual sectors. In the case of both pairwise and multidimensional dependencies, the authors proceed from a linear dynamic model, which is a combination of ARIMA models (or SARIMA models) in conjunction with regression analysis, where the variables explained are time-shifted. The quality of the estimated models is proven to be very high. The analysis shows a significant link between the sector's gross value added and sectoral confidence indicators. Significant predictors of the GVA of the national economy and GDP show explanatory variables of confidence indicators in industry and construction, whereas indicators of confidence in trade and services were statistically insignificant. Timely knowledge of these indicators in conjunction with linear dynamic models allows better and faster predictions of quarterly GVA and GDP than with conventional time series models.
{"title":"Possibilities of Estimations of Short-term Macroeconomic Aggregates Based on Business Survey Results","authors":"L. Marek, Stanislava Hronová, Richard Hindls","doi":"10.18267/J.POLEK.1243","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18267/J.POLEK.1243","url":null,"abstract":"The aim of the article is to construct a model for estimating the quarterly gross value added (GVA) of the national economy (GDP) based on the results of business surveys (so-called confidence indicators) in industry, construction, commerce and services (incl. banking sector), and to set the forecast for four quarters ahead. The suitability of the applied approach is assessed using pairwise dependencies for individual sectors. In the case of both pairwise and multidimensional dependencies, the authors proceed from a linear dynamic model, which is a combination of ARIMA models (or SARIMA models) in conjunction with regression analysis, where the variables explained are time-shifted. The quality of the estimated models is proven to be very high. The analysis shows a significant link between the sector's gross value added and sectoral confidence indicators. Significant predictors of the GVA of the national economy and GDP show explanatory variables of confidence indicators in industry and construction, whereas indicators of confidence in trade and services were statistically insignificant. Timely knowledge of these indicators in conjunction with linear dynamic models allows better and faster predictions of quarterly GVA and GDP than with conventional time series models.","PeriodicalId":44220,"journal":{"name":"Politicka Ekonomie","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.3,"publicationDate":"2019-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67824986","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper analyses the geographical concentration of the industry sector according to technology intensity of industries. The analysis of spatial distribution employs a database including information on the number of plants at the 2-digit level of sector aggregation in the period 1997-2016. We estimate parameters for a spatial panel data analysis with random and fixed effects in order to examine two related research questions: (1) to what extent are the effects of internal economies of scale present in the technology-intensive industries; and (2) which types of external economies of scale are used by different industries depending on technology intensity. Our results indicate that the regional industrial structure of Slovakia has become more diverse. As a consequence of the phase of economic integration, some of the regions have been integrated into global production networks and maintain high levels of specialisation.
{"title":"Agglomeration Economies and Technology Intensity of Industry Sector in Slovakia","authors":"J. Rusnák, Filip Lehocký","doi":"10.18267/j.polek.1241","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18267/j.polek.1241","url":null,"abstract":"This paper analyses the geographical concentration of the industry sector according to technology intensity of industries. The analysis of spatial distribution employs a database including information on the number of plants at the 2-digit level of sector aggregation in the period 1997-2016. We estimate parameters for a spatial panel data analysis with random and fixed effects in order to examine two related research questions: (1) to what extent are the effects of internal economies of scale present in the technology-intensive industries; and (2) which types of external economies of scale are used by different industries depending on technology intensity. Our results indicate that the regional industrial structure of Slovakia has become more diverse. As a consequence of the phase of economic integration, some of the regions have been integrated into global production networks and maintain high levels of specialisation.","PeriodicalId":44220,"journal":{"name":"Politicka Ekonomie","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.3,"publicationDate":"2019-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67824906","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This analysis seeks to map the level of reconciliation of work and family life of women in the Czech Republic. Using a HP filter, the authors estimate and compare the development of the NAIRU on the labour market in the case of women compared with men aged 20–49. The authors also quantify the impact and character of selected government policy measures on the NAIRU of women in the 20–49 age group. An explanation is offered for negative and positive influence. While the unemployment rate measured for the age group 15–64 reached 6.9%, it was 7% for the age group 20–49 and 8.6% for women. An increase in the NAIRU of women aged between 20 and 49 given by reconciliation of work and family life was identified, e.g., for the men’s part-time job category or social care facilities category. To the contrary, a decrease in the NAIRU of women (20-49) was identified for the following categories: number of hours worked per week, number of pupils in after-lessons school clubs, women’s part-time jobs, number of children enrolled in kindergartens, and day care service spending.
{"title":"Analysis of Effects of Reconciliation of Family and Work Life of Women Through the Prism of Non-accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment in the Czech Republic","authors":"E. Jašová, B. Kadeřábková","doi":"10.18267/J.POLEK.1216","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18267/J.POLEK.1216","url":null,"abstract":"This analysis seeks to map the level of reconciliation of work and family life of women in the Czech Republic. Using a HP filter, the authors estimate and compare the development of the NAIRU on the labour market in the case of women compared with men aged 20–49. The authors also quantify the impact and character of selected government policy measures on the NAIRU of women in the 20–49 age group. An explanation is offered for negative and positive influence. While the unemployment rate measured for the age group 15–64 reached 6.9%, it was 7% for the age group 20–49 and 8.6% for women. An increase in the NAIRU of women aged between 20 and 49 given by reconciliation of work and family life was identified, e.g., for the men’s part-time job category or social care facilities category. To the contrary, a decrease in the NAIRU of women (20-49) was identified for the following categories: number of hours worked per week, number of pupils in after-lessons school clubs, women’s part-time jobs, number of children enrolled in kindergartens, and day care service spending.","PeriodicalId":44220,"journal":{"name":"Politicka Ekonomie","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.3,"publicationDate":"2019-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67822606","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
An increase in municipal financial autonomy in Slovakia in connection with the fiscal decentralization during the monitored period 2000–2016 is observable after its implementation (2005) with a certain derogation in the period of the financial crisis (2009). The aim of the paper is to point out its formal increase through vertical fiscal imbalance. It is caused by the dominant position of shared tax revenues in the municipal budgets. Dumitrescu-Hurlin Panel Granger Causality test confirms a relationship between municipal financial autonomy and vertical fiscal imbalance, which points to a transfer dependency of municipalities on central government. Using the cross-correlation, the expected inverse relation between analysed categories is confirmed in the current period. Statistically significant positive correlation coefficients in the case of lag order point to important timing focusing on the period of implementation of reforms and certain economic effects, e.g., financial crisis and economic recovery.
{"title":"Formal Dimension of Fiscal Decentralization in the Context of Vertical Fiscal Imbalance and Financial Autonomy of Municipalities in Slovakia","authors":"Lenka Maličká","doi":"10.18267/j.polek.1240","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18267/j.polek.1240","url":null,"abstract":"An increase in municipal financial autonomy in Slovakia in connection with the fiscal decentralization during the monitored period 2000–2016 is observable after its implementation (2005) with a certain derogation in the period of the financial crisis (2009). The aim of the paper is to point out its formal increase through vertical fiscal imbalance. It is caused by the dominant position of shared tax revenues in the municipal budgets. Dumitrescu-Hurlin Panel Granger Causality test confirms a relationship between municipal financial autonomy and vertical fiscal imbalance, which points to a transfer dependency of municipalities on central government. Using the cross-correlation, the expected inverse relation between analysed categories is confirmed in the current period. Statistically significant positive correlation coefficients in the case of lag order point to important timing focusing on the period of implementation of reforms and certain economic effects, e.g., financial crisis and economic recovery.","PeriodicalId":44220,"journal":{"name":"Politicka Ekonomie","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.3,"publicationDate":"2019-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67824899","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Trade Policy Barriers to Imports of EU Goods to the USA: Importance of Liberalization of Trade Flows The paper deals with effects of trade liberalization of EU goods exports to the USA. Despite the current protectionist tendencies of US President Donald Trump, the USA is strongly motivated to promote a deeper trade liberalization in the longer horizon, further strengthening bilateral trade flows, increasing economic efficiency, and thus contributing to the growth of both economies. The primary objective is to evaluate a hypothesis which states that reducing political trade barriers could notably increase the flows. We use gravity models and our own constructed non-tariff trade barrier time series based on tens of thousands of values for EU-28 countries in relation to the USA between 1995–2014. The data are obtained from an analysis of US legislature, in contrast to previous studies which used subjective survey data. The secondary goal is to assess whether a substantial reduction of non-tariff barriers is realistic or not, an issue which other researchers have overlooked. The level of bilateral non-tariff barriers imposed by the USA against EU exporters is rather low in the international comparison, a substantial reduction is not a reasonable assumption. We conclude that dealing with non-tariff trade barriers is crucial as it can substantially increase the bilateral trade flows. Even a less optimistic scenario, with a smaller decrease in trade barriers, suggests that the EU goods exports to the USA could be increased by more than 20%.
{"title":"Trade Policy Barriers to Imports of EU Goods to the USA: Importance of Liberalization of Trade Flows","authors":"Milan Bednář","doi":"10.18267/j.polek.1242","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18267/j.polek.1242","url":null,"abstract":"Trade Policy Barriers to Imports of EU Goods to the USA: Importance of Liberalization of Trade Flows The paper deals with effects of trade liberalization of EU goods exports to the USA. Despite the current protectionist tendencies of US President Donald Trump, the USA is strongly motivated to promote a deeper trade liberalization in the longer horizon, further strengthening bilateral trade flows, increasing economic efficiency, and thus contributing to the growth of both economies. The primary objective is to evaluate a hypothesis which states that reducing political trade barriers could notably increase the flows. We use gravity models and our own constructed non-tariff trade barrier time series based on tens of thousands of values for EU-28 countries in relation to the USA between 1995–2014. The data are obtained from an analysis of US legislature, in contrast to previous studies which used subjective survey data. The secondary goal is to assess whether a substantial reduction of non-tariff barriers is realistic or not, an issue which other researchers have overlooked. The level of bilateral non-tariff barriers imposed by the USA against EU exporters is rather low in the international comparison, a substantial reduction is not a reasonable assumption. We conclude that dealing with non-tariff trade barriers is crucial as it can substantially increase the bilateral trade flows. Even a less optimistic scenario, with a smaller decrease in trade barriers, suggests that the EU goods exports to the USA could be increased by more than 20%.","PeriodicalId":44220,"journal":{"name":"Politicka Ekonomie","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.3,"publicationDate":"2019-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67824973","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Influence of Income Taxation on Indebtedness of Non-financial Firms","authors":"Stanislav Klazar, Barbora Slintáková","doi":"10.18267/j.polek.1239","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18267/j.polek.1239","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":44220,"journal":{"name":"Politicka Ekonomie","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.3,"publicationDate":"2019-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67824893","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Frank Hyneman Knight made a significant contribution to neoclassical economics. The paper aims to examine his economic theory and political philosophy. The first part outlines the life of Frank Knight. The second part examines his thesis titled "Risk, Uncertainty and Profit" (1921). The third part analyses "The Economic Organization" (1933). The fourth part discusses the book "The Ethics of Competition" (1935). The fifth part takes a look at the political philosophy in the book "Freedom and Reform" (1947). The sixth part highlights the significance of Knight for the Chicago School.
{"title":"Frank Hyneman Knight, the Founder of the Chicago School","authors":"M. Loužek","doi":"10.18267/J.POLEK.1220","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18267/J.POLEK.1220","url":null,"abstract":"Frank Hyneman Knight made a significant contribution to neoclassical economics. The paper aims to examine his economic theory and political philosophy. The first part outlines the life of Frank Knight. The second part examines his thesis titled \"Risk, Uncertainty and Profit\" (1921). The third part analyses \"The Economic Organization\" (1933). The fourth part discusses the book \"The Ethics of Competition\" (1935). The fifth part takes a look at the political philosophy in the book \"Freedom and Reform\" (1947). The sixth part highlights the significance of Knight for the Chicago School.","PeriodicalId":44220,"journal":{"name":"Politicka Ekonomie","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.3,"publicationDate":"2019-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67822979","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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