Methods of Exiting Quantitative Easing on the Examples of Japan, the UK and the USA The article describes both the theory and the practice of exiting from the unconventional monetary policy of quantitative easing (QE). At the theoretical level, the following issues are outlined: exit step sequence, options to decrease the amount of securities purchased, relationship between exit and interest rate hike, communication of the change and liquidity-absorbing instruments. Further, examples from Japan, the United Kingdom and the USA are introduced, especially regarding their experience with the QE exit. In detail, the monetary policy-related numbers (QE purchases, QE portfolio, central bank balance sheet, monetary base and reserves) are observed both before and after the exit announcement. The charts of these changes prove to be substantially different, mainly due to unique key features of each QE policy and diverse exit strategies.
{"title":"Methods of Exiting Quantitative Easing on the Examples of Japan, the UK and the USA","authors":"Stanislav Hába","doi":"10.18267/j.polek.1225","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18267/j.polek.1225","url":null,"abstract":"Methods of Exiting Quantitative Easing on the Examples of Japan, the UK and the USA The article describes both the theory and the practice of exiting from the unconventional monetary policy of quantitative easing (QE). At the theoretical level, the following issues are outlined: exit step sequence, options to decrease the amount of securities purchased, relationship between exit and interest rate hike, communication of the change and liquidity-absorbing instruments. Further, examples from Japan, the United Kingdom and the USA are introduced, especially regarding their experience with the QE exit. In detail, the monetary policy-related numbers (QE purchases, QE portfolio, central bank balance sheet, monetary base and reserves) are observed both before and after the exit announcement. The charts of these changes prove to be substantially different, mainly due to unique key features of each QE policy and diverse exit strategies.","PeriodicalId":44220,"journal":{"name":"Politicka Ekonomie","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.3,"publicationDate":"2019-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67823688","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Productivity Change in Multi-year Periods: the Hicks-Moorsteen Index, Its Decomposition and Bank Application","authors":"M. Boďa","doi":"10.18267/j.polek.1235","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18267/j.polek.1235","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":44220,"journal":{"name":"Politicka Ekonomie","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.3,"publicationDate":"2019-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67823924","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Detection of Changes in Panel Data: Change in Fama-French Model Parameters for Selected European Stocks During the Financial Crisis This study identifies systemic break points in a factor pricing model for firms traded on European stock markets around the financial crisis. The aim is to shed light on the systemic risk transfer in explaining average stock returns in the fragmented European exchanges. Our analysis takes advantage of recent development in econometrics and employs models which enable “automatic” detection of factor model break points. We find that Western European exchanges are more closely integrated with American financial markets than Northern European stock exchanges and those in the United Kingdom. However, all exchanges were eventually affected by the systemic shock. The results of this study provide insight into immunisation strategies for portfolios created from European stocks.
{"title":"Detection of Changes in Panel Data: Change in Fama-French Model Parameters for Selected European Stocks During the Financial Crisis","authors":"J. Antoch, J. Hanousek, M. Hušková, J. Tresl","doi":"10.18267/j.polek.1233","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18267/j.polek.1233","url":null,"abstract":"Detection of Changes in Panel Data: Change in Fama-French Model Parameters for Selected European Stocks During the Financial Crisis This study identifies systemic break points in a factor pricing model for firms traded on European stock markets around the financial crisis. The aim is to shed light on the systemic risk transfer in explaining average stock returns in the fragmented European exchanges. Our analysis takes advantage of recent development in econometrics and employs models which enable “automatic” detection of factor model break points. We find that Western European exchanges are more closely integrated with American financial markets than Northern European stock exchanges and those in the United Kingdom. However, all exchanges were eventually affected by the systemic shock. The results of this study provide insight into immunisation strategies for portfolios created from European stocks.","PeriodicalId":44220,"journal":{"name":"Politicka Ekonomie","volume":"83 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.3,"publicationDate":"2019-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67823831","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The Impact of the Economic Crisis on Fertility Levels in EU Member States The aim of this paper is to assess the impact of the economic crisis which commenced in 2008 on fertility levels across the EU, i.e., whether the onset of the crisis influenced the fertility trends and whether the various countries differed in terms of their response to the crisis. The relationship between the two economic indicators GDP per capita and unemployment rate and the total fertility rate as the dependent variable was explored employing panel regression models. Simultaneously, an investigation was conducted into which indicator better fits the modelling of the influence of macro-economic conditions of individual countries on the fertility levels. Data on 28 EU member states from the period 2001 to 2013 were included in the analysis. The results revealed that the onset of the economic crisis exerted a fundamental effect on fertility. In addition, it was found that the two economic indicators were interchangeable in terms of the effects exerted. In conclusion, it was determined that the findings support the supposition that fertility tends to be pro-cyclical in character.
{"title":"The Impact of the Economic Crisis on Fertility Levels in EU Member States","authors":"J. Kocourková, A. Šťastná, A. Černíková","doi":"10.18267/j.polek.1230","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18267/j.polek.1230","url":null,"abstract":"The Impact of the Economic Crisis on Fertility Levels in EU Member States The aim of this paper is to assess the impact of the economic crisis which commenced in 2008 on fertility levels across the EU, i.e., whether the onset of the crisis influenced the fertility trends and whether the various countries differed in terms of their response to the crisis. The relationship between the two economic indicators GDP per capita and unemployment rate and the total fertility rate as the dependent variable was explored employing panel regression models. Simultaneously, an investigation was conducted into which indicator better fits the modelling of the influence of macro-economic conditions of individual countries on the fertility levels. Data on 28 EU member states from the period 2001 to 2013 were included in the analysis. The results revealed that the onset of the economic crisis exerted a fundamental effect on fertility. In addition, it was found that the two economic indicators were interchangeable in terms of the effects exerted. In conclusion, it was determined that the findings support the supposition that fertility tends to be pro-cyclical in character.","PeriodicalId":44220,"journal":{"name":"Politicka Ekonomie","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.3,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67824165","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Oldřich Hájek, J. Novosák, R. Jurčík, Daniela Spiesová, Jana Novosáková
Structural Funding and Disadvantage of Regions: Public and Non-Public Beneficiaries Considering the differences between public and non-public beneficiaries, the main aim of this paper is to evaluate the relationship between the disadvantage of Czech regions and the spatial distribution of EU structural funds in the programming period 2007–2013. The empirical results reveal negative and significant influence of socioeconomic disadvantage of regions on the amount of structural funds obtained by public beneficiaries. On the contrary, agglomeration economies are the statistically significant determinant of the amount of structural funds obtained by non-public beneficiaries. These conclusions are related to different absorption capacity of regions, regarding the number and size of projects. Overall, structural funds do not compensate for the disadvantage of regions, neither for public nor for non-public beneficiaries.
{"title":"Structural Funding and Disadvantage of Regions: Public and Non-Public Beneficiaries","authors":"Oldřich Hájek, J. Novosák, R. Jurčík, Daniela Spiesová, Jana Novosáková","doi":"10.18267/j.polek.1238","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18267/j.polek.1238","url":null,"abstract":"Structural Funding and Disadvantage of Regions: Public and Non-Public Beneficiaries Considering the differences between public and non-public beneficiaries, the main aim of this paper is to evaluate the relationship between the disadvantage of Czech regions and the spatial distribution of EU structural funds in the programming period 2007–2013. The empirical results reveal negative and significant influence of socioeconomic disadvantage of regions on the amount of structural funds obtained by public beneficiaries. On the contrary, agglomeration economies are the statistically significant determinant of the amount of structural funds obtained by non-public beneficiaries. These conclusions are related to different absorption capacity of regions, regarding the number and size of projects. Overall, structural funds do not compensate for the disadvantage of regions, neither for public nor for non-public beneficiaries.","PeriodicalId":44220,"journal":{"name":"Politicka Ekonomie","volume":"101 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.3,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67824965","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Applicability of Scoring Models in Firms' Default Prediction. The Case of Slovakia","authors":"Matúš Mihalovič","doi":"10.18267/j.polek.1226","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18267/j.polek.1226","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":44220,"journal":{"name":"Politicka Ekonomie","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.3,"publicationDate":"2018-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67823790","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Unemployment and Age-based Labor Market Segmentation We analyze age-specific labor market dynamics in the Czech Republic, Poland and Slovakia over the period 2009–2012. We document a marginalized status of young workers aged 16–24, whose risk of job loss followed by unemployment is two to three times higher than that of primeage workers (35–49). Further more, unemployed workers aged 50–61 face relatively the lowest probability of finding a job, at rates 30–50% lower than prime-age unemployed workers. These results are qualitatively in line with those established for the reference economy of the UK. Finally, we find that fluctuations in age-specific unemployment rates in all three countries are mainly driven by variations in outflow rates from unemployment rather than by variations in inflow rates into unemployment. In contrast, in the UK, the fluctuations in all age-specific unemployment rates, are decisively affected by variations in inflow rates into unemployment.
{"title":"Unemployment and Age-based Labor Market Segmentation","authors":"V. Flek, Martin Hála, Martina Mysíková","doi":"10.18267/j.polek.1227","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18267/j.polek.1227","url":null,"abstract":"Unemployment and Age-based Labor Market Segmentation We analyze age-specific labor market dynamics in the Czech Republic, Poland and Slovakia over the period 2009–2012. We document a marginalized status of young workers aged 16–24, whose risk of job loss followed by unemployment is two to three times higher than that of primeage workers (35–49). Further more, unemployed workers aged 50–61 face relatively the lowest probability of finding a job, at rates 30–50% lower than prime-age unemployed workers. These results are qualitatively in line with those established for the reference economy of the UK. Finally, we find that fluctuations in age-specific unemployment rates in all three countries are mainly driven by variations in outflow rates from unemployment rather than by variations in inflow rates into unemployment. In contrast, in the UK, the fluctuations in all age-specific unemployment rates, are decisively affected by variations in inflow rates into unemployment.","PeriodicalId":44220,"journal":{"name":"Politicka Ekonomie","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.3,"publicationDate":"2018-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67823886","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In an effort to stimulate aggregate demand at the zero lower bound, economists and central bankers have focused on inflation expectations. The key argument is that an increase in inflation expectations may reduce the real interest rate and thus encourage consumption spending. This article examines not only the traditional channels of the fall in the interest rate connected to the relative importance of the substitution and income effects, but it also investigates the impact on the perceived real future labour income. It is shown that if people do not adjust their expectations about future nominal labour income when inflation their expectations rise, the effect on present consumption can be negative, and the aggregate demand might be reduced rather than increased. A graphical and mathematical analysis in the paper exposes the relative importance of traditional channels and this new channel. It is shown that the traditional perspective is only a special case of a more general approach.
{"title":"Does an Increase in Inflation Expectations Stimulate Consumption at the Zero Lower Bound?","authors":"Pavel Potužák","doi":"10.18267/j.polek.1221","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18267/j.polek.1221","url":null,"abstract":"In an effort to stimulate aggregate demand at the zero lower bound, economists and central bankers have focused on inflation expectations. The key argument is that an increase in inflation expectations may reduce the real interest rate and thus encourage consumption spending. This article examines not only the traditional channels of the fall in the interest rate connected to the relative importance of the substitution and income effects, but it also investigates the impact on the perceived real future labour income. It is shown that if people do not adjust their expectations about future nominal labour income when inflation their expectations rise, the effect on present consumption can be negative, and the aggregate demand might be reduced rather than increased. A graphical and mathematical analysis in the paper exposes the relative importance of traditional channels and this new channel. It is shown that the traditional perspective is only a special case of a more general approach.","PeriodicalId":44220,"journal":{"name":"Politicka Ekonomie","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.3,"publicationDate":"2018-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67823027","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A Mathematical Model of the Gini Coefficient and Evaluation of the Redistribution Function of the Tax System in the Czech Republic","authors":"Marian Genčev, Denisa Musilová, J. Široký","doi":"10.18267/j.polek.1232","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18267/j.polek.1232","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":44220,"journal":{"name":"Politicka Ekonomie","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.3,"publicationDate":"2018-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67823719","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Tax Competitiveness of EU Member States in the Context of Corporate Taxation Despite the tax coordination and harmonisation, as the tax burden convergence processes, the corporate taxation systems differ among EU Member States, which can affect the development of economies to various degrees. The main objective of the paper is to assess whether the EU-27 countries are competitive in the field of corporate taxation and to verify whether "new Member States" are considered more competitive than the "old Member States". Empirical research from 2004 to 2014 used traditional quantitative indicators and specific quantitative methods in the form of tax rate relations, cluster analysis and constant market shares method, the application of which in the tax field is one of the main benefits of the research. Empirical results have highlighted the significant and positive impact of tax competitiveness on growth of corporate earnings growth. It has also shown that tax competition among countries is not clearly associated with a decrease in tax rates and will persist unless harmonization efforts are successful.
{"title":"Tax Competitiveness of EU Member States in the Context of Corporate Taxation","authors":"L. Mihóková, Alena Andrejovská, S. Martinková","doi":"10.18267/j.polek.1206","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18267/j.polek.1206","url":null,"abstract":"Tax Competitiveness of EU Member States in the Context of Corporate Taxation Despite the tax coordination and harmonisation, as the tax burden convergence processes, the corporate taxation systems differ among EU Member States, which can affect the development of economies to various degrees. The main objective of the paper is to assess whether the EU-27 countries are competitive in the field of corporate taxation and to verify whether \"new Member States\" are considered more competitive than the \"old Member States\". Empirical research from 2004 to 2014 used traditional quantitative indicators and specific quantitative methods in the form of tax rate relations, cluster analysis and constant market shares method, the application of which in the tax field is one of the main benefits of the research. Empirical results have highlighted the significant and positive impact of tax competitiveness on growth of corporate earnings growth. It has also shown that tax competition among countries is not clearly associated with a decrease in tax rates and will persist unless harmonization efforts are successful.","PeriodicalId":44220,"journal":{"name":"Politicka Ekonomie","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.3,"publicationDate":"2018-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67822894","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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