Economic Notes最新文献

This paper empirically characterises the value effect detected in the Italian stock market for the sample period 2000–2018 based on the value premium offered for the acquisition of a value stock. Bids on value stock (as opposed to bids on growth stocks) generate a large and statistically significant average return on the holding of the target in the deal window. Returns on target stocks for a bid make up to two-thirds of the average return on the long side of the Fama and French high book-to-market minus low book-to-market (HML) portfolio. The other significant component of the average return of HML is due to short-selling small-growth stocks. As evidenced in previous literature, this is often difficult to implement from a practical point of view.

The trilogy among economic growth, social capital (SC), and financial development is examined based on three hypotheses: first, SC is important in the finance-growth nexus. Second, there is a threshold effect of SC in the finance-growth nexus. Third, the SC-finance-growth trilogy depends on the countries' income level. Building data set for 70 countries, some interesting results were obtained: (i) the marginal effects of both SC and finance promote economic growth at higher levels; (ii) there is evidence of a threshold effect of SC, as finance enhances more growth when SC is below the threshold level; (iii) higher-income countries tend not to benefit from the SC-finance-growth trilogy. These results suggest that the influence of SC on growth trajectory is exaggerated in the literature. The study recommends that policymakers should pursue other sources of economic growth aside SC, while ensuring that the level of SC does not deteriorate.

Asset pricing theories imply the existence of a long run relation between real housing prices and rents. The long run relation predicts, that in each time period real housing prices should be equal to the expected present discounted value of subsequent real rents. We use the annual time series for the 1991–2016 period in Italy as evidence regarding the present discounted value relation. Considering the stochastic properties of the aggregate time series, cointegration tests do not deliver conclusive results. In a dynamic vector autoregression model, real housing prices are shown to properly anticipate forthcoming real rents, though they exhibit excess volatility. In the sample period, movements of housing prices relatively to the long run relation predict successive real returns. While rational speculative bubbles might produce excess volatility of housing prices, other explanations are required for the predictability of real housing returns.

In this study, we use an industrial-organization model of the banking industry with money creation to examine the effect of conventional and unconventional monetary policy on the money stock. We consider quantitative monetary easing, qualitative monetary easing, and a negative interest rate on excess reserve balances as unconventional monetary policy. Our main findings are as follows. First, under a plausible setting of the parameters, the model with money creation supports the liquidity puzzle, in which tight monetary policy increases the money stock. The greater the number of banks, the stronger the effect. Second, quantitative monetary easing has no impact on money stocks, loans, deposits and bank holding assets other than government bonds. Third, the effect of qualitative monetary easing is ambiguous, but when the number of banks is sufficiently large, the effect is almost the same as the interest rate on reserves. Fourth, the effect of negative interest rate policy is quite complex.

The study examines the impact of financial inclusion, promoted through the Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojna (PMJDY) scheme, on the economic performance across the Indian states. Using the index of financial inclusion developed in Sarma (2008), the current study develops a three-dimensional financial inclusion index for 25 major Indian states from 2011 to 2016 to assess the status of financial inclusion across Indian states. The impact of financial inclusion promoted through the PMJDY scheme on the economic performance of the Indian states is investigated using bootstrap corrected fixed effects estimation and inference in the dynamic panel. The study's finding suggests that most Indian states fall under the low or medium level of financial inclusion. The dynamic panel results reveal a positive and significant association between financial inclusion and economic growth across Indian states. Further, results show PMJDY scheme marginally improved the pace of economic growth but failed to improve the overall economic prosperity level across states. Poor usage of financial services and a rise in the number of dormant accounts after the PMJDY scheme's launch are the significant limitations of the PMJDY scheme's failure.

This paper adds to the recent literature on finance and employment creation by exploring the effect of finance on the labour market, using data on 143 countries from 1995 to 2015. We also examine whether the impact of financial development on labour is significantly different before and after the 2008 global financial crisis. This paper has five main findings. First, the analysis confirms the positive relationship between financial institution efficiency and access, as well as the employment rate in the linear specification. Second, the marginal returns to employment from further financial institution inclusion diminish at high levels of inclusion and turn negative when an inclusion point is reached. Third, the effects of financial market access on employment show a “U-Shaped” relationship. Fourth, the positive effect of financial development on employment strengthens with the country's institutional quality. And fifth, there is strong support for a negative impact of financial development on employment during the global financial crisis of 2007–2008.

This paper investigates the way in which the financial market defines and evaluates different business models, using a sample of listed European banking groups from 2006 to 2015. The main findings suggest that the financial market seems to associate a better risk-return trade-off to non-banking fees than to banking ones and that the performance of different business models varies depending on context conditions. In particular, in the current economic context, characterised by the combination of slow economic growth with historically low levels of interest rates, the market-oriented business model tends to over-perform. These findings have strategic implications for bank managers, regulators, and supervisors, due to the impact of the crises on banking business, profitability and risk and the new challenges they entail.