Economic Notes最新文献

This study examines the asymmetric behaviour of Bitcoin relative to six major African fiat currencies (Egyptian Pound, Cedi, ZAR, Naira, Rupee and Dinar) for the period 10 August 2015 to 31 December 2022. The time and frequency information in the time series of the currencies were captured applying the ensemble empirical mode decomposition. The quantile regression (QR) and quantile-in-quantile regression (QQR) were applied on the decomposed series to examine the connections among the currencies at different currency regimes across time. The empirical results show that both QR and QQR can adequately capture the time-varying asymmetric behaviour of the currencies across time. The results range from weak to very strong dependencies albeit both negative and positive across different quantiles. Our findings suggest that except for ZAR, Bitcoin is a viable alternative currency to African reserve currencies from the medium-term since it can hedge depreciation and forex risk of the fiat currencies. Based on the findings of this study, we recommend that forex traders and policymakers in Africa should adopt Bitcoin as an alternative currency to African currencies in the medium-term to mitigate currency crises in the continent.

We study a game where households buy consumption goods to preempt inflation. This game features a unique equilibrium with high (low) inflation, whenever money supply is high (low). For intermediate levels of money supply, there exist multiple stable equilibria where inflation is either high or low. Equilibria with moderate inflation, however, do not exist, and can thus not be targeted by central banks. That is, depending on agents' equilibrium play, money supply is always either too high or too low for moderate inflation. Finally, we find that inflation rates of durable goods, such as houses, cars, luxury watches, or furniture, are useful leading indicators for changes in overall inflation.

This study analyses six major cryptocurrencies and four global stock markets to explore the role of cryptocurrencies as a hedge, safe haven, and diversifier in stock markets. The study employs ADCC-GARCH and Wavelet Coherence Technique, using daily data from 4 January 2017 to 28 February 2023. The study has found that stock returns and unstable cryptocurrency returns have high volatility persistence in the long run. Besides, while unstable digital currencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Binance Coin, and Dogecoin) serve as a hedge during stable economic periods, they have not been a hedge during economic turmoil in the stock markets. Conversely, stablecoins (Tether and USD Coin) have been shown to have acted as a hedge during normal economic times and have offered a safe haven during economic downturns. Except for Tether, all cryptocurrencies' diversification capacity is time-varying. In stable economic conditions, they serve as diversifiers, but during turmoil, they do not. However, Tether serves as a diversifier regardless of the financial situation. Finally, the present investigation is expected to offer crucial information on hedge, safe haven and diversification for quasi-investors.

This paper examines the effect of financial inclusion on women's empowerment. We contribute to the growing interest in financial inclusion effectiveness literature by conducting an empirical analysis of 42 African countries to examine the role of financial inclusion in empowering women. We also examine and compare the effectiveness of the three dimensions of financial inclusion viz. usage, access, and quality, and the first most influential indicators, based on their PCA score, of these dimensions. Our findings suggest that financial inclusion has a significantly positive effect on women's empowerment-measured by females' human development index. Examining the relative importance of financial inclusion dimensions, we find access to financial services has a higher effect on women's empowerment. These results are robust to alternative measures of women's empowerment and financial inclusion, and alternative estimation procedures. We also find that the effect of financial inclusion on women's empowerment is higher in low and lower-middle-income countries compared with upper-middle-income countries in the region. This study provides evidence of one of the channels through which financial inclusion contributes to reducing gender inequality, and thereby enhancing economic development.

This study examines the relationship between various financial inclusion measures and banks' performance across multiple countries with varying institutional, regulatory and income levels. To construct an aggregate bank performance index, we employ principal component analysis, which utilises a set of critical indicators summarised by the CAMEL rating system, including banks' solvency, asset quality, efficiency, profitability and liquidity. Our primary findings indicate that different measures of financial inclusion exhibit varying associations with bank performance. Specifically, there is a trade-off between bank performance and credit deepening, especially in high-income nations. Conversely, in low-income nations, higher financial inclusion, measured by deposits to GDP, number of deposits, and number of borrowers, does not affect bank performance adversely. Banks in low-income nations could achieve significant gains by improving financial access and enhancing regulatory environments.

The current literature on the finance-inequality nexus fall short of providing extensive evidence. This paper fills the gap by framing the financial sector; to the development of financial intermediation (supply side) and individual use of financial services (demand side). The first approach decouples the financial sector into the banking and stock market. We use the 5-year nonoverlapping averaged data from 1980 to 2017 across 49 countries and employ a panel data fixed effect and two-stage least squared estimation (2sls). We show that banking and stock market development widens income inequality. Besides, the effect is more prominent in countries that have a banking and stock market than countries only with the banking sector. The second approach uses financial inclusion and financial technology (Fintech) data from three waves of survey data in 2011, 2014 and 2017 on the individual use of financial services across 39 countries. We obtain three key findings. First, institutional quality significantly affects financial inclusion and Fintech. Second, Fintech positively affects inclusion and savings. Third, financial inclusion and Fintech exacerbate income inequality. Our result asserts a natural tendency that financial sector development exacerbate income inequality in Africa.

The context had radically changed when Economic Notes entered its third decade of activity. Specifically, the 1990s seemed to carry along a wave of conformity and of endangered pluralism in economic thought behind the mounting neoliberal economics mainstream. This paper reviews how the task of preserving pluralism in economic thought was resolutely pursued at Monte dei Paschi's publishing venture by placing the Journal on impartial grounds and keeping the door open to diversity.