Economic Notes最新文献

Factors detrimental to funding females or micro-entrepreneurs arise both from the demand side of businesses, such as the absence of funding need versus self-selection despite account holding, and from the supply side of financial institutions, such as deficient financial infrastructure and discrimination towards loan applicants. A sequential model addresses both the demand and the supply sides, prior and during the COVID-19 pandemic, upon four MENA countries, namely Egypt, Jordan, Morocco and Tunisia. Probit regressions use two distinct though comparable sub-samples of micro-enterprises from the 2020 World Bank Enterprise Survey (WBES) and the Economic Research Forum (ERF) COVID-19 Monitor in 2021. Prior the pandemic, micro-enterprises are prone to self-selection vis-à-vis loan application in Tunisia (ERF) and in all North African countries (WBES). During the pandemic, no self-selection vis-à-vis government support affects either female or micro-entrepreneurs. Prior the pandemic, females or micro-entrepreneurs face no loan discrimination (WBES). During the pandemic, females face no discrimination regarding government support, whereas Moroccan micro-entrepreneurs do (ERF). Prior the pandemic, financial inclusion runs opposite to both self-selection and discrimination (WBES), but not for self-selection (ERF), whereas it proves insignificant during the pandemic with respect to self-selection or discrimination, whatever the sub-sample.

This study proposes an ‘implicit measure’ of disagreement to investigate presence of any latent discord in the policy briefings of central banks across nations. We analyse Monetary policy statements of the Bank of Japan (Japan), Banco Central do Brasil (Brazil) and Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (Türkiye) on both specific as well as overall economic outlook by using novel text mining tools. Subsequently, we explore the relationship of the proposed measure of implicit disagreement with the accuracy of growth and inflation forecasts. Our findings confirm that disagreement/discord among policymakers over varied economic aspects provides signals to forecasters and helps in aligning their forecasts better. The results of this study indicate that disagreement too can be considered as a plausible criterion that can explain the forecaster's belief thereby playing a positive role in ‘forecaster learning’.

Deposit insurance involves catastrophe risk because bank failures spike during a banking crisis. Although mutual insurance is ill-suited for catastrophe risk, the US government structures deposit insurance like a mutual company owned by policyholders. Furthermore, an intertemporal mispricing resulting from a dividend-surcharge arrangement produces several problems. Most importantly, it worsens moral hazard. Through dividends and surcharges, deposit insurance transfers the premium burden from high-risk banks to low-risk banks and in effect erodes the charter value of low-risk banks. In addition, high-risk banks taking catastrophe risk can outperform low-risk banks for many years in a row, putting pressures on managers of low-risk banks. Owing to these factors, an underpricing of catastrophe risk before its realization can ratchet up risk-taking by banks. Other problems with the intertemporal mispricing include making the banking business more procyclical, distorting the prices of banking products, and exposing taxpayers to asymmetric downside risk. To ensure fair competition and improve economic efficiency, the government should set the insurance premium based not on the realized loss but on the expected loss.

The study aims to identify the potential determinants of financial inclusion and its impact on the Indian Muslim minority in Tamil Nadu. statistical package for social science and analysis of moment structures software packages were used in the study. Confirmatory factor analysis and structural equation modelling techniques were applied to examine the collected data (n = 300) from the Vellore district from April 2022 to March 2023. The study reveals that financial awareness, access and quality positively and significantly impact financial inclusion. However, the financial usage dimension is statistically insignificant. Additionally, the results from the moderation effect reveal that financial access and quality, along with age and annual income, significantly influence financial inclusion. In conclusion, the study contributes new dimensions to the existing literature by exploring the financial inclusion of Muslims and suggests implications and future scope for further research.

Following the breakdown of the Bretton Woods agreement the international monetary system has operated based on floating exchange rate arrangements and free capital mobility. A most significant subsequent improvement has been the process of European monetary integration, from the institution of the European Monetary System to the Euro currency. The relationships between the short-term interest rates of European Union (EU) countries and the United States suggest, that in the post-Bretton Woods period the US dollar has held an important anchor currency role, while EU countries acquired considerable monetary policy independence. Further, the stronger relationships between the short-term interest rates of EU countries and Germany may be viewed as a consequence of monetary unification. The econometric evidence provides important insights for the period following the adoption of the Euro, when European economies have in many instances been subject to heterogeneous shocks.

While the setting of the countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB) is not an automatic decision, insights from indicators, such as the credit-to-GDP gap, are a starting point to inform the policy decision. This paper identifies an optimal rule to map the credit-to-GDP gap to the guide to set the CCyB. We use Italian data and follow two alternative procedures. First, we apply the criteria suggested by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS). Then we depart from the BCBS approach by proposing a procedure based on the maximization of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. We also explore whether the CCyB, had it been in place, would have mitigated the repercussions of the Great Financial Crisis on the Italian banking system. Based on a stylized exercise, the full release of the CCyB at the outbreak of the crisis would have freed around €40 billion of capital, a value close to the total amount of banks' credit provisions during the 3 following years.

This study examines the asymmetric behaviour of Bitcoin relative to six major African fiat currencies (Egyptian Pound, Cedi, ZAR, Naira, Rupee and Dinar) for the period 10 August 2015 to 31 December 2022. The time and frequency information in the time series of the currencies were captured applying the ensemble empirical mode decomposition. The quantile regression (QR) and quantile-in-quantile regression (QQR) were applied on the decomposed series to examine the connections among the currencies at different currency regimes across time. The empirical results show that both QR and QQR can adequately capture the time-varying asymmetric behaviour of the currencies across time. The results range from weak to very strong dependencies albeit both negative and positive across different quantiles. Our findings suggest that except for ZAR, Bitcoin is a viable alternative currency to African reserve currencies from the medium-term since it can hedge depreciation and forex risk of the fiat currencies. Based on the findings of this study, we recommend that forex traders and policymakers in Africa should adopt Bitcoin as an alternative currency to African currencies in the medium-term to mitigate currency crises in the continent.