A shift in population distribution toward older ages is underway in industrialized countries throughout the world, and will continue well into the future. We provide a framework for isolating the pure effects of population aging on per capita GDP, employ the framework in calculations for twenty OECD countries, and derive the rates of productivity growth required to offset those effects. Taking the twenty countries as a whole, the average productivity growth rate (a simple unweighted arithmetic average) required to just offset aging effects over the full 30 years from 2015 to 2045 would be 4.2 per cent per decade, or approximately 0.4 per cent per year; to achieve an overall increase of 1 per cent in GDP per capita would require an average rate of 15.1 per cent per decade, or 1.4 per cent per year. We consider also some labour-related changes that might provide offsets, for comparison with productivity.
{"title":"What rates of productivity growth would be required to offset the effects of population aging? A study of twenty industrialized countries","authors":"F. Denton, B. Spencer","doi":"10.25336/csp29355","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.25336/csp29355","url":null,"abstract":"A shift in population distribution toward older ages is underway in industrialized countries throughout the world, and will continue well into the future. We provide a framework for isolating the pure effects of population aging on per capita GDP, employ the framework in calculations for twenty OECD countries, and derive the rates of productivity growth required to offset those effects. Taking the twenty countries as a whole, the average productivity growth rate (a simple unweighted arithmetic average) required to just offset aging effects over the full 30 years from 2015 to 2045 would be 4.2 per cent per decade, or approximately 0.4 per cent per year; to achieve an overall increase of 1 per cent in GDP per capita would require an average rate of 15.1 per cent per decade, or 1.4 per cent per year. We consider also some labour-related changes that might provide offsets, for comparison with productivity.","PeriodicalId":44334,"journal":{"name":"Canadian Studies in Population","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2018-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.25336/csp29355","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44691814","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Model-Based Demography: Essays on Integrating Data, Technique and Theory","authors":"Daniel Courgeau","doi":"10.25336/csp29382","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.25336/csp29382","url":null,"abstract":"Burch book info","PeriodicalId":44334,"journal":{"name":"Canadian Studies in Population","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2018-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.25336/csp29382","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45456335","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
by Andreas Bergh, Therese Nilsson and Daniel Waldenstrom Cheltenham, UK and Northampton, MA, US: Edward Elgar 2016 ISBN 978-1-78536-420-4 Hardcover, $99.95, 168 pp.
作者:Andreas Bergh, Therese Nilsson和Daniel Waldenstrom英国切尔滕纳姆和美国马萨诸塞州北安普顿:Edward Elgar 2016 ISBN 978-1-78536-420-4精装版，99.95美元，168页。
{"title":"Sick of Inequality? An Introduction to the Relationship between Inequality and Health","authors":"S. McDaniel","doi":"10.25336/CSP29434","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.25336/CSP29434","url":null,"abstract":"by Andreas Bergh, Therese Nilsson and Daniel Waldenstrom Cheltenham, UK and Northampton, MA, US: Edward Elgar 2016 ISBN 978-1-78536-420-4 Hardcover, $99.95, 168 pp.","PeriodicalId":44334,"journal":{"name":"Canadian Studies in Population","volume":"45 1","pages":"210"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2018-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.25336/CSP29434","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42681760","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Principles and Practice of Structural Equation Modeling, 4th editionRex B. KlineNew York: The Guilford Press 2016ISBN 978-1-4625-2334-4Softcover, US$65, 534 pp.Kline’s fourth edition is reasonably strong but improvable. The text aims to introduce newcomers to fundamental structural equation modeling (SEM) principles, but tends to confuse “Principles” with “Rules.” Rules having insufficient grounding in principles leave readers ill-prepared for understanding and responding to changes in previously traditional “rules”—such as those concerning model testing, and latents having single indicators. SEM’s foundations would be clearer if Kline began by presenting structural equation models as striving to represent causal effects—a commitment that differentiates structural equation models from regression and encourages model testing. I begin this review by summarizing the covariance/correlation implications of three simple causal structures, which pinpoints multiple text improvements and underpins the discussions of measurement and model testing that follow. Causal structuring also grounds my later comments regarding modelling means/intercepts and interactions. A file of Supplementary Sections expands on several points and lists multiple editorial corrections you might pencil into your copy of Kline’s text.
结构方程建模原理与实践，第四版rex B. kline纽约:吉尔福德出版社2016ISBN 978-1-4625-2334-4软装，65,534页。kline的第四版相当强大，但可以改进。本文旨在向新手介绍基本结构方程建模(SEM)原理，但往往混淆“原理”和“规则”。缺乏原则基础的规则使读者在理解和响应以前传统“规则”的变化方面准备不足，例如那些关于模型测试的规则，以及具有单一指标的潜在规则。如果Kline一开始就把结构方程模型描述为努力表现因果效应，那么SEM的基础就会更清晰——这一承诺将结构方程模型与回归模型区分开来，并鼓励模型测试。我通过总结三个简单因果结构的协方差/相关含义来开始这篇综述，它精确地指出了多个文本改进，并支持了随后的测量和模型测试的讨论。因果结构也是我后面关于建模方法/截距和交互的评论的基础。补充章节的文件扩展了几个要点，并列出了多个编辑更正，您可以在Kline的文本副本中使用铅笔。
{"title":"Review essay on Rex B. Kline’s Principles and Practice of Structural Equation Modeling: Encouraging a fifth edition","authors":"L. Hayduk","doi":"10.25336/CSP29397","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.25336/CSP29397","url":null,"abstract":"Principles and Practice of Structural Equation Modeling, 4th editionRex B. KlineNew York: The Guilford Press 2016ISBN 978-1-4625-2334-4Softcover, US$65, 534 pp.Kline’s fourth edition is reasonably strong but improvable. The text aims to introduce newcomers to fundamental structural equation modeling (SEM) principles, but tends to confuse “Principles” with “Rules.” Rules having insufficient grounding in principles leave readers ill-prepared for understanding and responding to changes in previously traditional “rules”—such as those concerning model testing, and latents having single indicators. SEM’s foundations would be clearer if Kline began by presenting structural equation models as striving to represent causal effects—a commitment that differentiates structural equation models from regression and encourages model testing. I begin this review by summarizing the covariance/correlation implications of three simple causal structures, which pinpoints multiple text improvements and underpins the discussions of measurement and model testing that follow. Causal structuring also grounds my later comments regarding modelling means/intercepts and interactions. A file of Supplementary Sections expands on several points and lists multiple editorial corrections you might pencil into your copy of Kline’s text.","PeriodicalId":44334,"journal":{"name":"Canadian Studies in Population","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2018-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.25336/CSP29397","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41980358","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Global Spread of Fertility Decline: Population, Fear and Uncertainty","authors":"K. Islam","doi":"10.25336/CSP29404","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.25336/CSP29404","url":null,"abstract":"by Jay Winter and Michael Teitelbaum New haven and London: Yale University Press 2013ISBN: 978-0-300-13906-8, Hardcover $60.0, 336 pp.","PeriodicalId":44334,"journal":{"name":"Canadian Studies in Population","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2018-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.25336/CSP29404","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48611713","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Antecedents of Censuses from Medieval to Nation States: How Societies and States CountRebecca Jean Emigh, Dylan Riley, and Patricia AhmedNew York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2016. ISBN 978-1-137-48502-1 (also available in E-PUB)DOI: 10.1057/9781137485038Hardcover $US110, 266 pp. +Changes in Censuses from Imperialist to Welfare States: How Societies and States CountRebecca Jean Emigh, Dylan Riley, and Patricia AhmedNew York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2016ISBN 978-1-137-48505-2 (also available in E-PUB)DOI: 10.1057/9781137485069Hardcover $US110, 267 pp. +
{"title":"\"People count in counting people\": A proposed alternative narrative on the origins and history of modern censuses","authors":"Anthony C. Masi","doi":"10.25336/CSP29414","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.25336/CSP29414","url":null,"abstract":"Antecedents of Censuses from Medieval to Nation States: How Societies and States CountRebecca Jean Emigh, Dylan Riley, and Patricia AhmedNew York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2016. ISBN 978-1-137-48502-1 (also available in E-PUB)DOI: 10.1057/9781137485038Hardcover $US110, 266 pp. +Changes in Censuses from Imperialist to Welfare States: How Societies and States CountRebecca Jean Emigh, Dylan Riley, and Patricia AhmedNew York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2016ISBN 978-1-137-48505-2 (also available in E-PUB)DOI: 10.1057/9781137485069Hardcover $US110, 267 pp. +","PeriodicalId":44334,"journal":{"name":"Canadian Studies in Population","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2018-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.25336/CSP29414","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47106313","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Biohistory","authors":"Helena Fracchia","doi":"10.25336/csp29429","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.25336/csp29429","url":null,"abstract":"by Jim Penman, Cambridge Scholars Publishing 2015, ISBN (10) 1-4438-7165-6; ISBN (13) 978-1-4438-7165-5, Hardcover US $49.95, 622 p.","PeriodicalId":44334,"journal":{"name":"Canadian Studies in Population","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2018-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46236153","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-06-01DOI: 10.1007/s42650-019-00008-5
Michael E. Cline
{"title":"Danny Dorling and Stuart Gietel-Basten: Why Demography Matters","authors":"Michael E. Cline","doi":"10.1007/s42650-019-00008-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s42650-019-00008-5","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":44334,"journal":{"name":"Canadian Studies in Population","volume":"47 1","pages":"207 - 209"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2018-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1007/s42650-019-00008-5","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43233610","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The last century witnessed the fastest population growth in human history, but this is now ending.2 Recent 2017 United Nations population projections assume that current fertility levels of 2.5 children per woman will decrease to 2.2 in 2050 and to a below-replacement level of 1.99 in 2100 (United Nations 2017).3 Estimated at 7.2 billion in 2013, the world’s population is expected to continue to grow, but at a much slower pace. It will eventually peak at slightly more than 11 billion in the 22nd century, and thereafter slowly decrease for the first time in several centuries. Under the United Nations’ low-fertility assumption, world population would peak even sooner, at 8.7 billion in about 2050 and decrease to 7.3 billion by 2100. Today’s current population is increasing by 1.1 per cent per year, compared to almost 2 per cent as recently as 1970–75. By the end of the current century, in 2095–2100, the United Nations expects world population growth to decrease to 0.1 per cent per year; however, peak population size does not occur in this century, according to the 2017 United Nations’ medium-fertility population projections. By 2095–2100, world population growth is small but still positive. If the United Nations’ rates are extrapolated beyond 2100, world population growth would decrease to zero in about 2110 (by linear extrapolation) or 2115 (by exponential extrapolation). Even though world fertility is projected to fall below replacement levels by 2100, the younger age distribution in some high-fertility countries provides “momentum” for continued population growth past 2100. Nevertheless, global world population growth is expected to cease by 2075 in all regions except Africa and Oceania.
{"title":"Implications of World Peak Population for Canada","authors":"A. Bélanger, B. Edmonston","doi":"10.25336/CSP29372","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.25336/CSP29372","url":null,"abstract":"The last century witnessed the fastest population growth in human history, but this is now ending.2 Recent 2017 United Nations population projections assume that current fertility levels of 2.5 children per woman will decrease to 2.2 in 2050 and to a below-replacement level of 1.99 in 2100 (United Nations 2017).3 Estimated at 7.2 billion in 2013, the world’s population is expected to continue to grow, but at a much slower pace. It will eventually peak at slightly more than 11 billion in the 22nd century, and thereafter slowly decrease for the first time in several centuries. Under the United Nations’ low-fertility assumption, world population would peak even sooner, at 8.7 billion in about 2050 and decrease to 7.3 billion by 2100. Today’s current population is increasing by 1.1 per cent per year, compared to almost 2 per cent as recently as 1970–75. By the end of the current century, in 2095–2100, the United Nations expects world population growth to decrease to 0.1 per cent per year; however, peak population size does not occur in this century, according to the 2017 United Nations’ medium-fertility population projections. By 2095–2100, world population growth is small but still positive. If the United Nations’ rates are extrapolated beyond 2100, world population growth would decrease to zero in about 2110 (by linear extrapolation) or 2115 (by exponential extrapolation). Even though world fertility is projected to fall below replacement levels by 2100, the younger age distribution in some high-fertility countries provides “momentum” for continued population growth past 2100. Nevertheless, global world population growth is expected to cease by 2075 in all regions except Africa and Oceania.","PeriodicalId":44334,"journal":{"name":"Canadian Studies in Population","volume":"45 1","pages":"1-10"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2018-05-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.25336/CSP29372","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42773716","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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