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Forecasting the High-Frequency Exchange Rate Volatility with Smooth Transition Exponential Smoothing 平稳过渡指数平滑预测高频汇率波动
IF 0.9 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-12-30 DOI: 10.21315/aamjaf2022.18.2.10
J. Ho, W. Choo, Ruxian Zhangyu, C. Yee, W. Lau
Smooth Transition Exponential Smoothing (STES) is a popular exponential smoothing method for volatility forecasting; whereby the success of the STES model lies in the choice of the transition variable. In this paper, three realized variance (RV), daily, weekly and monthly RV were used as the transition variables in STES methods to evaluate the performance of intraday data. While daily squared return is a noisy series, squared residual and daily RV were employed as the proxy for actual volatilities in this study. With five series of exchange rates, a comparative analysis was conducted for Ad Hoc methods, Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH) models, and STES methods using various RV combinations. The empirical results showed that when daily RV was used as proxy for actual volatility, the traditional STES models and STES models with RV as the transition variables outperformed Ad Hoc methods and GARCH models under the RMSE evaluation criteria. Similar promising results were also observed for traditional STES models and STES models with RV as the transition variables under MAE evaluation. The MCS results generally reaffirmed the results from both the MAE and RMSE evaluation criteria.
平滑过渡指数平滑(STES)是一种流行的波动率预测指数平滑方法;其中STES模型的成功在于转换变量的选择。在本文中,三个已实现方差(RV),每日、每周和每月RV被用作STES方法中的转换变量,以评估日内数据的性能。虽然日收益平方是一个有噪声的序列,但在本研究中,平方残差和日RV被用作实际波动率的代理。使用五个汇率系列,对Ad Hoc方法、广义自回归条件异方差(GARCH)模型和使用各种RV组合的STES方法进行了比较分析。实证结果表明,当使用每日RV作为实际波动率的代理时,在RMSE评估标准下,传统的STES模型和以RV为过渡变量的STES模式优于Ad Hoc方法和GARCH模型。在MAE评估下,传统STES模型和以RV作为过渡变量的STES模型也观察到了类似的有希望的结果。MCS结果通常重申了MAE和RMSE评估标准的结果。
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引用次数: 0
Stock Market Interdependence, Contagion, the Financial Subprime Crisis and the European Sovereign Debt Crisis: Evidence from the Chinese’s Stock Market 股市相互依存、传染、金融次贷危机与欧洲主权债务危机——来自中国股市的证据
IF 0.9 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-12-30 DOI: 10.21315/aamjaf2022.18.2.6
Selma Jayech, Lamia Jaidane Mazigh, E. Abdennadher
This study analyses the contagion effects of the American, the British and the Greek stock markets on the Chinese stock market in the context of the 2007–2010 American and European financial crises. Two contagion tests have been performed using the Archimedean copula functions. The results of the first test suggest that the financial contagion existed between UK/China in the 2007 subprime financial crisis period and between U.S./China and U.K./China in the 2010 European sovereign debt crisis period. Finally, the second test shows that the contagion effects of the 2010 European sovereign debt crisis were clearly more intense than those caused by the 2007 subprime financial crisis just for the U.S./China pair. Investors' sentiment and behavior indirectly have impact on financial risk contagion in Chinese stock markets.
本研究分析了2007-2010年美国和欧洲金融危机背景下,美国、英国和希腊股市对中国股市的传染效应。使用阿基米德copula函数进行了两次传染试验。第一次测试结果表明,2007年次贷危机期间,英国/中国之间存在金融传染,2010年欧洲主权债务危机期间,美国/中国与英国/中国之间也存在金融传染。最后,第二项测试表明,2010年欧洲主权债务危机的传染效应显然比2007年次贷危机仅对美国和中国造成的传染效应更为严重。投资者的情绪和行为间接影响中国股市金融风险的蔓延。
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引用次数: 0
Audit Committee Effectiveness, Internal Audit Function and Financial Reporting Lag: Evidence from Malaysia 审计委员会效能、内部审计职能与财务报告滞后:来自马来西亚的证据
IF 0.9 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-12-30 DOI: 10.21315/aamjaf2022.18.2.8
Rohaida Ismail, N. Mohd-Saleh, Rubayah Yaakob
This study examines the association among the effectiveness of audit committee, arrangement of internal audit function (IAF), and financial reporting lag (FRL). It also expands the literature by exploring the effect of IAF sourcing arrangement on financial reporting lag. Financial reporting lag is measured based on the number of days between the dates of the financial year end to the date of announcement of financial reporting. The effectiveness of the audit committee consists of size, independence, meetings, experts, and the chairperson’s qualifications. The internal audit arrangement is either performed in-house or outsourced to a third-party internal audit service provider and the cost of incurred for the IAF in the financial year. The agency theory is applied to explain the framework of this study and tested on 2,284 Malaysian listed companies from 2012 to 2015. Results show that IAF sourcing arrangement and cost are significantly associated with financial report lag. These findings offer important implications on audit committee and IAF literature through improving the timeliness of financial information.
本研究探讨了审计委员会效能、内部审计职能安排与财务报告滞后之间的关系。它也扩展了文献通过探讨内部采购安排对财务报告滞后的影响。财务报告滞后是根据财务年度结束日期到财务报告公布日期之间的天数来衡量的。审计委员会的有效性包括规模、独立性、会议、专家和主席的资格。内部审计安排是在内部进行或外包给第三方内部审计服务提供商,内部审计在财政年度产生的费用。运用代理理论解释本研究的框架,并对2012 - 2015年2,284家马来西亚上市公司进行了检验。结果表明,内部采购安排和成本与财务报告滞后显著相关。这些发现通过提高财务信息的及时性,对审计委员会和审计报告文献提供了重要的启示。
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引用次数: 0
How Do Depositors Respond to Bank Dividend Policy? Evidence from Market Discipline, Global Financial Crisis and COVID-19 Pandemic 存款人对银行分红政策的反应如何?来自市场纪律、全球金融危机和COVID-19大流行的证据
IF 0.9 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-12-30 DOI: 10.21315/aamjaf2022.18.2.2
D. Tran
Our study investigates how depositors respond to the bank dividend policy via the interest rate channel. The results suggests that by paying dividend, banks mitigate the information asymmetry between insiders and outsiders, then enjoying a lower deposit cost than banks that do not pay dividend. Dividend-paying banks that are subject to higher funding costs may enjoy a greater decrease of funding costs than non-payers. Banks that are under greater pressure from regulators, but encounter losses have to pay higher deposit costs when deciding to pay dividend. The study emphasizes the downside of deposit insurance scheme when documenting the indifference of insured but uninsured depositors during the global financial crisis, but the COVID-19 crisis, suggesting the wake-up calls for depositors.
我们的研究调查了储户如何通过利率渠道对银行股息政策做出反应。研究结果表明,通过支付股息,银行缓解了内部人和外部人之间的信息不对称,从而比不支付股息的银行享有更低的存款成本。支付股息的银行面临更高的融资成本,可能会比非支付银行享受更大的融资成本下降。受到监管机构更大压力但遭遇损失的银行在决定支付股息时必须支付更高的存款成本。该研究在记录全球金融危机期间,但在新冠肺炎危机期间,有保险但没有保险的存款人漠不关心时,强调了存款保险计划的不利影响,为存款人敲响了警钟。
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引用次数: 0
Effect of the 2015 Code Revision to the Corporate Governance Code on Japanese Listed Firms 2015年公司治理准则修订对日本上市公司的影响
IF 0.9 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-12-30 DOI: 10.21315/aamjaf2022.18.2.3
Tomotaka Yanagida
The Corporate Governance Code, revised in 2015, recommends that the firms listed within the first and second sections of Japan’s Tokyo Stock Exchange select two or more independent outside directors (Corporate Governance Code 4-8). Japanese listed firms must either comply with or explain the reason for non-compliance. This study investigates how the Corporate Governance Code affects Japanese listed firms. Using a difference-in-differences approach for our sample of 4,200 firm–year observations in 2014–2015, we find that the Corporate Governance Code increases the proportion of outside directors by approximately 8.8%. This finding implies that such companies might have found it difficult to explain non-compliance with this rule to their shareholders. Moreover, we find no evidence that increases in the ratio of outside directors are related to a firm’s future performance.
2015年修订的《公司治理准则》建议在日本东京证券交易所第一和第二板块上市的公司选择两名或两名以上的独立外部董事(《公司治理条例》4-8)。日本上市公司必须遵守或解释不遵守规定的原因。本研究探讨《公司治理准则》对日本上市公司的影响。我们对2014-2015年4200家公司的年度观察样本采用差异分析法,发现《公司治理准则》使外部董事的比例增加了约8.8%。这一发现意味着,这些公司可能很难向股东解释不遵守这一规则的情况。此外,我们没有发现任何证据表明外部董事比例的增加与公司未来的业绩有关。
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引用次数: 0
Does Electronic Payment Services Create Value to Bank Performance? Evidence from Southeast Asia 电子支付服务为银行业绩创造价值吗?来自东南亚的证据
IF 0.9 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-12-30 DOI: 10.21315/aamjaf2022.18.2.7
M. Lu, C. Ooi, K. Lee, Zunarni Kossim
This study examines the nexus between four electronic payment channels’ transaction values and bank performance of Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand for 2010–2020. We find that, the impact of credit and charge card’s transaction value on banks’ return on equity (ROE) is significantly positive across various econometric specifications, including firm fixed effect panel regression, two-way clustering method and generalised method of moment. Instead, the impacts of the other three payment channels (e-money, debit card and internet and mobile banking) are negative but not significance across all econometric specification. These suggest that only the credit and charge card is economically relevant to the banks’ shareholders. We further add that only credit and charge card significantly improves banks’ operating income, while all four payment channels are not significantly related to revenue growth of the banks. In the additional analysis, we find that e-money, debit card, internet and mobile banking are negatively influencing the relationship between banks’ operating income and ROE. In summary, our study implies that majority of the electronic payment services offered by banks are not economically sustainable in the long run.
本研究考察了2010-2020年马来西亚、新加坡和泰国四种电子支付渠道的交易价值与银行业绩之间的关系。我们发现,信用卡和签账卡交易价值对银行净资产收益率(ROE)的影响在各种计量指标中均呈显著正相关,包括公司固定效应面板回归、双向聚类法和广义矩量法。相反,其他三种支付渠道(电子货币、借记卡、互联网和移动银行)的影响是负面的,但在所有计量经济学规范中都不显著。这表明,只有信用卡和签帐卡与银行股东有经济关系。我们进一步补充说,只有信用卡和签账卡显著提高了银行的营业收入,而四种支付渠道都与银行的收入增长没有显著相关。在进一步的分析中,我们发现电子货币、借记卡、互联网和手机银行对银行营业收入与净资产收益率之间的关系产生负向影响。总之,我们的研究表明,从长远来看,银行提供的大多数电子支付服务在经济上是不可持续的。
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引用次数: 0
The Impacts of Multi-blockholder Contestability and Coalition on the Risk of Korean Companies 多区块主体竞争与联盟对韩国企业风险的影响
IF 0.9 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-12-30 DOI: 10.21315/aamjaf2022.18.2.1
H. Kim, Kyung-shick Cho
We examine the relationship between multi-blockholder contestability and coalition and firm risk using an unbalanced panel of 646 Korean non-financial firms with 7,582 firm-years from 2010 to 2017 (8 years). For multi-blockholder contestability, we use the second-to-first blockholder contestability index and the second-and third-to-first blockholder contestability index. The Herfindahl-Harshman Index Concentration and Herfindahl-Harshman Index Difference are used for a multi-blockholder coalition. Using different measures of contestability, we show that contestability among multiple blockholders is negatively related to beta. It is also shown that the probability (variance) of forming a dominant coalition among multiple blockholders is negatively related to beta. This suggests that contestability and the probability of forming a dominant coalition among multiple blockholders reduce corporate risk. This study expands on the existing literature on the relationship between corporate risk and ownership. This study shows that the multi-blockholder contestability and coalition may be one factor determining the risk of a company. Our findings will contribute to policymakers and investors who are interested in the relationship between corporate risk and blockholder contestability and dispersion in the Korean stock market.
我们使用一个由646家韩国非金融企业组成的不平衡面板,研究了多区块持有人竞争性、联盟和企业风险之间的关系,这些企业在2010年至2017年(8年)有7582个企业年份。对于多区块持有者的可竞争性,我们使用第二到第一区块持有者可竞争性指数以及第二和第三到第一区块持有人可竞争性指标。Herfindahl-Harshman指数集中度和Herfindahl Harshman指标差用于多区块持有者联盟。使用不同的可竞争性度量,我们发现多个区块持有者之间的可竞争与贝塔负相关。研究还表明,在多个区块持有者之间形成主导联盟的概率(方差)与贝塔负相关。这表明,可竞争性和在多个区块持有人之间形成主导联盟的可能性降低了公司风险。本研究扩展了现有关于公司风险与所有权关系的文献。本研究表明,多股东的可竞争性和联盟可能是决定公司风险的一个因素。我们的研究结果将有助于政策制定者和投资者,他们对韩国股市中企业风险与大宗股持有人的可竞争性和分散性之间的关系感兴趣。
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引用次数: 1
Volatility spillover from the global oil price to ASEAN stock markets: A cross-quantilogram analysis 全球油价波动对东盟股市的溢出效应:交叉量化分析
IF 0.9 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-07-29 DOI: 10.21315/aamjaf2022.18.1.9
Mien Nguyen Thi Ngoc
This paper investigates the link between the volatility of global oil prices and ASEAN stock market indices using the cross-quantilogram approach developed by Han et al. (2016). We find that a large and medium change in the global oil prices could result in persistent and robust volatility in the stock index of almost ASEAN markets. Moreover, Vietnam is a unique stock market sensitive to the slight change in global oil price, although it is not an instant response. This study offers strong implications for investors in optimising their portfolios. Besides, understanding the risk spillover from the global oil market to the stock market helps policymakers enact more appropriate policies to reduce equity volatility.
本文使用Han等人(2016)开发的交叉量化图方法研究了全球油价波动与东盟股票市场指数之间的联系。我们发现,全球石油价格的大幅变化可能导致几乎东盟市场的股指持续而强劲的波动。此外,越南股市对全球油价的微小变化非常敏感,尽管它不会立即做出反应。该研究为投资者优化投资组合提供了强有力的启示。此外,了解全球石油市场对股票市场的风险溢出有助于决策者制定更合适的政策来减少股票波动。
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引用次数: 0
Are Korea individual investors irrational in initial public offering (IPO) market? An explanation from the winner’s curse perspective 韩国个人投资者在首次公开募股(IPO)市场上是否不理性?从胜利者诅咒的角度进行解释
IF 0.9 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-07-29 DOI: 10.21315/aamjaf2022.18.1.2
J. Min
Individual investors are often regarded as irrational sentiment investors whose investment behaviour is affected by psychological factors. This study measures the actual investment return of individual investors who participated in initial price offering (IPO) stock investment in the Korean market from the short-term and long-term perspective and investigates the relationship with IPO characteristics that affect the investment sentiment of individual investors. Even though the underpricing of IPO stocks on the first day of listing on average reached 31% over the past 13 years, individual investors in the Korean stock market earned very little actual return on IPO stock investment. The market-adjusted return on IPO stock investment on the first day was about −0.5%, and even if they held IPO stocks for one year after listing, it was only 3.4%. The so-called winner’s curse, in which individual investors are allocated relatively many overvalued stocks appears to be present in the Korean IPO market. The allocation of IPO stocks by individual investors depends on several factors that reflect individual investors’ sentiment, such as past performance of previous IPOs, past industrial returns, institutional investors’ investment intent, offering size, an upward revision of the offer price, and issuing firm’s financial soundness. It was found that the higher the individual allocation rate, the lower the short-term investment return on the first trading day, confirming the winner’s curse risk of individual investors. However, in the long run, a reversal of returns was observed, in which the long-term returns of IPO stocks with high individual allocation rates rose. In order to mitigate the winner’s curse risk, it is desirable to reform IPO pricing mechanisms and allocation rules in a way that reduces the asymmetry of information between institutional and individual investors and reflects the subscription demand of individual investors.
个人投资者通常被视为非理性情绪投资者,其投资行为受到心理因素的影响。本研究从短期和长期角度衡量了参与韩国市场首次公开募股(IPO)股票投资的个人投资者的实际投资回报,并调查了影响个人投资者投资情绪的IPO特征与投资回报的关系。尽管在过去13年中,首次公开募股股票在上市第一天的平均抑价达到31%,但韩国股市的个人投资者在首次公开募股的股票投资中获得的实际回报很少。IPO股票投资首日经市场调整后的回报率约为-0.5%,即使他们在上市后持有IPO股票一年,也只有3.4%。韩国IPO市场似乎存在所谓的赢家诅咒,即个人投资者被分配了相对多的高估值股票。个人投资者对IPO股票的配置取决于反映个人投资者情绪的几个因素,如以往IPO的过去表现、过去的行业回报、机构投资者的投资意图、发行规模、发行价格的上调以及发行公司的财务稳健性。研究发现,个人配置率越高,第一个交易日的短期投资回报率越低,证实了个人投资者的赢家诅咒风险。然而,从长期来看,观察到回报率的逆转,其中个人配置率高的IPO股票的长期回报率上升。为了缓解赢家诅咒风险,需要改革IPO定价机制和分配规则,以减少机构投资者和个人投资者之间的信息不对称,并反映个人投资者的认购需求。
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引用次数: 1
Corporate diversification and stock price crash risk: Do female directors matters? Evidence from Malaysia 公司多元化与股价暴跌风险:女性董事重要吗?来自马来西亚的证据
IF 0.9 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-07-29 DOI: 10.21315/aamjaf2022.18.1.4
K. Lee
This study examines the relation between corporate diversification and stock price crash risk and whether female directors moderate this relation. Using a sample of Malaysian publicly listed firms based on 2010–2016 data, our study finds diversification mitigates crash risk but only for highly diversified firms. Our study also finds that the mitigating effect of diversification is more pronounced for firms with higher proportion of female directors in the board in which it is aligned with the notion of gender diversity in promoting good corporate governance. Our findings are beneficial to stock investors in managing the “tail risk” in stock prices of conglomerates/diversified firms.
本研究考察了公司多元化与股价崩盘风险之间的关系,以及女性董事是否调节了这种关系。使用基于2010-2016年数据的马来西亚上市公司样本,我们的研究发现多元化减轻了崩溃风险,但仅适用于高度多元化的公司。我们的研究还发现,多元化的缓解效应对于董事会中女性董事比例较高的公司更为明显,这与性别多元化促进良好公司治理的概念是一致的。我们的研究结果有助于股票投资者管理综合企业/多元化公司股价的“尾部风险”。
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引用次数: 2
期刊
Asian Academy of Management Journal of Accounting and Finance
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