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Reinstating fiscal policy for normal times: Public investment and Public Jobs Programmes 恢复正常时期的财政政策:公共投资和公共就业计划
IF 0.7 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-06-07 DOI: 10.13133/2037-3643/17483
Simone Gasperin, R. Skidelsky
This paper upholds the classical Keynesian position that a laissez-faire market economy lacks a spontaneous tendency to full employment. Focusing on the UK case, it argues that monetary policy could not prevent the economic collapse of 2008-9 or achieve full recovery from the Great Recession that followed. The paper then outlines the case for fiscal policy to regain a permanent status of primacy in modern macroeconomic management, beyond the pandemic emergency. It distinguishes between public investment and automatic stabilisers, reducing discretionary actions to a minimum. It presents the case for re-empowering the State’spublic investment function and for reforming the system of automatic counter-cyclical stabilisers by means of public jobs programmes.   JEL codes:E32, E52, E61, E62, E63, H54, J68 Keywords:monetary policy, fiscal policy, public investment, job programmes
本文支持凯恩斯主义的经典立场,即自由放任的市场经济缺乏充分就业的自发趋势。以英国为例,它认为货币政策无法阻止2008-09年的经济崩溃,也无法从随后的大衰退中实现全面复苏。然后,该文件概述了在疫情紧急情况之外,财政政策在现代宏观经济管理中重新获得永久首要地位的理由。它区分了公共投资和自动稳定器,将可自由支配的行动减少到最低限度。它提出了通过公共就业方案重新赋予国家公共投资职能权力和改革自动反周期稳定器系统的理由。JEL代码:E32、E52、E61、E62、E63、H54、J68关键词:货币政策、财政政策、公共投资、就业计划
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引用次数: 1
On two recent attempts to introduce animal spirits in macroeconomics: Heresy or enlightened church reform? 关于最近在宏观经济学中引入动物精神的两种尝试:异端还是开明的教会改革?
IF 0.7 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-06-07 DOI: 10.13133/2037-3643/17485
T. Togati
As noted by Alan Greenspan in 2008, one key flaw in standard models is that they treat animal spirits as a simple ‘add factor’ rather than as a structural one. This paper evaluates the extent to which two recent approaches placing the emphasis on animal spirits – namely Farmer’s ‘Neo-Paleo-Keynesian’ (NPK) project and Akerlof and Shiller’s behavioural approach – manage to overcome this flaw. By following the powerful religious metaphor introduced by Farmer, according to which general equilibrium theory underlying standard models should be regarded as a ‘church’, this paper stresses two points. First, animal spirits turn out to be devilish features that are inconsistent with the church’s commandments. Second, by trying to reconcile them with the church, these two approaches are unable to truly reform it as required by Greenspan; rather, they appear to be heretical stances that are forced to violate some fundamental dogmas of the church.   JEL codes: E12, E13, E32 Keywords:Animal spirits, general equilibrium, research programmes, Keynesian economics, macroeconomic models
正如艾伦•格林斯潘(Alan Greenspan)在2008年指出的那样,标准模型的一个关键缺陷是,它们将动物精神视为一个简单的“附加因素”,而不是一个结构性因素。本文评估了最近两种强调动物精神的方法——法默的“新古凯恩斯主义”(NPK)项目和阿克洛夫和希勒的行为方法——在多大程度上克服了这一缺陷。法默提出了一个强有力的宗教隐喻,根据这个隐喻,作为标准模型基础的一般均衡理论应该被视为一个“教堂”,本文强调两点。首先,动物精神被证明是邪恶的特征,与教会的诫命不一致。其次,这两种方法试图与教会和解,却无法真正实现格林斯潘所要求的改革;相反,他们似乎是异端的立场,被迫违反教会的一些基本教义。关键词:动物精神,一般均衡,研究计划,凯恩斯经济学,宏观经济模型
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引用次数: 0
A Keynesian analysis of Canadian government securities yields 加拿大政府证券收益率的凯恩斯主义分析
IF 0.7 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-10-17 DOI: 10.13133/2037-3643_73.294_3
A. Das, Tanweer Akram
Keynes argued that the short-term interest rate is the main driver of the long-term interest rate on government bonds. This paper empirically models the relationship between the short-term interest rate and long-term government securities yields in Canada, after controlling for other important financial variables. The statistical analysis uses high-frequency daily data from 1990 to 2018 to examine the behavioral dynamics of the long-term interest rate. The empirical results show that the actions of the Bank of Canada are key drivers of Canadian government securities yields in the long run, which supports the Keynesian perspective. There is a positive association between long-term bond yields and the Canadian federal government’s net debt to GDP ratio, but the effect is fairly modest. An important implication of these findings is that the Bank of Canada’s actions can have a decisive effect on the long-term interest rate over the long horizon. JEL codes : E43, E50, E60, G10, G12
凯恩斯认为,短期利率是政府债券长期利率的主要驱动因素。本文在控制了其他重要金融变量后,对加拿大短期利率与长期政府证券收益率之间的关系进行了实证建模。统计分析使用1990年至2018年的高频每日数据来检验长期利率的行为动态。实证结果表明,从长远来看,加拿大银行的行为是加拿大政府证券收益率的关键驱动因素,这支持了凯恩斯主义的观点。长期债券收益率与加拿大联邦政府的净债务与GDP之比之间存在正相关,但影响相当温和。这些发现的一个重要含义是,加拿大银行的行动可以对长期利率产生决定性影响。JEL代码:E43、E50、E60、G10、G12
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引用次数: 5
Infrastructure and manufacturing in Sub-Saharan Africa: An empirical analysis using dynamic panel data models 撒哈拉以南非洲的基础设施和制造业:使用动态面板数据模型的实证分析
IF 0.7 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-10-17 DOI: 10.13133/2037-3643_73.294_4
Bovick Wandja Yemba, R. Ribeiro, Victor Medeiros
The provisioning of adequate infrastructure may be seen as a key contributing factor in the industrialization process as well as economic development across the globe. While there is a vast empirical literature assessing the impact of infrastructure on economic growth, productivity and income inequality, estimates of the effect on infrastructure on manufacturing sector, in particular, are rather scant. Using dynamic panel data models, we empirically investigate the impact of investments in power, transportation and telecommunication sectors on the manufacturing industry for a sample of 48 Sub-Saharan African countries over the 1980-2012 period. Our findings suggest a positive effect of infrastructure provisioning on industrialization in the region. JEL codes : H54, O14, O55
提供充足的基础设施可能被视为全球工业化进程和经济发展的一个关键因素。尽管有大量的实证文献评估了基础设施对经济增长、生产力和收入不平等的影响,但对基础设施对制造业的影响的估计尤其少。使用动态面板数据模型,我们对1980-2012年期间48个撒哈拉以南非洲国家的电力、运输和电信部门投资对制造业的影响进行了实证调查。我们的研究结果表明,基础设施供应对该地区的工业化产生了积极影响。JEL代码:H54、O14、O55
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引用次数: 0
Inside the IMF “mea culpa”: A panel analysis on growth forecast errors and Keynesian multipliers in Europe 国际货币基金组织内部的“认错”:一个关于欧洲增长预测错误和凯恩斯乘数的小组分析
IF 0.7 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-10-17 DOI: 10.13133/2037-3643_73.294_2
E. Brancaccio, Fabiana De Cristofaro
The tests carried out by Blanchard and Leigh (2013; IMF, 2012) and Fatas and Summers (2018) are extended here into a panel framework in order to assess the empirical basis of the so-called IMF “mea culpa” regarding the underestimation of Keynesian multipliers during the euro area crisis. The objections put forward by the European Central Bank, the European Commission and other authors against the “underestimation” thesis are tested and refuted. The results support the “mea culpa” and highlight that the underestimation of multipliers can concern both the short and the long term. JEL codes :E23, E27, E62
Blanchard和Leigh (2013;本文将IMF, 2012)和Fatas and Summers(2018)扩展为一个小组框架,以评估欧元区危机期间低估凯恩斯乘数的所谓IMF“认错”的实证基础。欧洲央行(ecb)、欧盟委员会(European Commission)和其他作者对“低估”理论提出的反对意见得到了检验和驳斥。研究结果支持了“认错论”,并强调了乘数的低估可能涉及短期和长期。JEL代码:E23, E27, E62
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引用次数: 3
Monetary Policy Responses to Exogenous Perturbations: The Case of a Small Open Economy (2007-2018) 外生扰动下的货币政策响应:以小型开放经济体为例(2007-2018)
IF 0.7 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-06-27 DOI: 10.13133/2037-3643_73.293_5
Christopher E. S. Warburton, Emerson Abraham Jackson
While autonomous central banks in large open economies are usually predisposed to use monetary rules to target inflation, output, and long-term interest rates, central banks in small open economies face peculiar challenges in their attempts to attain and maintain liquidity, stable prices and full employment. This paper investigates the effects of monetary policy in the case of Sierra Leone, assuming that information for rule-based monetary policy is insufficient and imprecise. We use the Bayesian model to evaluate primitive (priors), posterior enhancements and responses of key variables to exogenous perturbations based on information from 2007 to 2018. We find that the effects of disturbances that are associated with crude oil prices have a more persistent effect on national output than the dominant monetary instrument (T-Bills). The response of monetary policy to exogenous perturbations is generally weak and less persistent. Granger-causality tests reveal that internal conditions make it less likely for the central bank to robustly react to external shocks. JEL codes : E42, E 47, E50, E52
虽然大型开放经济体中的自主央行通常倾向于使用货币规则来针对通胀、产出和长期利率,但小型开放经济体的央行在试图获得和保持流动性、稳定价格和充分就业方面面临着特殊的挑战。本文研究了塞拉利昂货币政策的影响,假设基于规则的货币政策信息不足且不准确。我们使用贝叶斯模型来评估基于2007年至2018年的信息的原始(先验)、后验增强和关键变量对外部扰动的响应。我们发现,与占主导地位的货币工具(T-Bills)相比,与原油价格相关的扰动对国民产出的影响更持久。货币政策对外部扰动的反应通常较弱,持续性较差。格兰杰因果关系检验表明,内部条件使央行不太可能对外部冲击做出有力反应。JEL代码:E42、E47、E50、E52
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引用次数: 10
Julio López Gallardo (1941-2020) 胡里奥·洛佩斯·加拉多(1941-2020)
IF 0.7 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-06-27 DOI: 10.13133/2037-3643_73.293_1
Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid, Carlo Panico, M. P. Anyul
This obituary recalls the personal and intellectual trajectory of Julio Lopez Gallardo, who recently passed away. A friend of the authors and this Review, Julio contributed widely to the literature on the development of Latin American countries, to Kaleckian models, and to structuralism. His main contributions concern  the effective demand in the semi-industrialized economies, the different roles of fiscal and trade deficits in economic growth, and the structural role of the distribution of income on the development process. JEL codes:  B32, E11, O11
这篇讣告让人想起了最近去世的胡里奥·洛佩斯·加拉多的个人和智力轨迹。作为作者和这篇评论的朋友,胡里奥对拉丁美洲国家发展的文献、卡莱基模型和结构主义做出了广泛贡献。他的主要贡献涉及半工业化经济体的有效需求、财政和贸易赤字在经济增长中的不同作用以及收入分配在发展进程中的结构性作用。JEL代码:B32、E11、O11
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引用次数: 0
France: The political economy of discontent. The “Gilets Jaunes” movement 法国:不满的政治经济学。“Gilets Jaunes”运动
IF 0.7 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-06-27 DOI: 10.13133/2037-3643_73.293_2
J. Gallardo
The author comments on the months of protest by the “yellow jackets” movement, to provide a diagnosis of the reasons of economic malaise in France. It is claimed that France only really started loosing ground relative to Germany since adhering to the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). A reform of the EMU would be needed for the country to recover lost ground, but the current political conditions at the European level do make such a reform likely. The author concludes by predicting a continuation of the status quo, matched by growth of the radical right in France and other EMU countries. JEL codes : O11, O23, N14
作者评论了“黄夹克”运动长达数月的抗议活动,以诊断法国经济不景气的原因。据称,自从加入经济和货币联盟(EMU)以来,法国才真正开始相对于德国有所松动。该国需要对欧洲货币联盟进行改革,以收复失地,但目前欧洲层面的政治条件确实使这种改革成为可能。作者最后预测,随着法国和其他欧洲货币联盟国家激进右翼的增长,现状将持续下去。JEL代码:O11、O23、N14
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引用次数: 0
Stock market volatility, speculation and unemployment: A Granger-causality analysis 股市波动、投机与失业:Granger因果分析
IF 0.7 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-06-27 DOI: 10.13133/2037-3643_73.293_3
Bernardina Algieri, E. Brancaccio, Damiano Buonaguidi
This study investigates the possible Granger-causal relations between stock price volatility and dividend dynamics on the one hand, and speculation and unemployment on the other. The analysis is carried out for the US over the period 1982-2018. Stock price volatility is calculated in terms of “conditional” volatility and in terms of the so-called “Shiller ratio”, while speculative trading is expressed as “scalping” activities. We find that there is a causal positive relation from speculation to stock price volatility. Furthermore, we show that there is an inverse causal relationship ranging from stock prices to unemployment, while there is no causal relationship between dividends and unemployment. These results corroborate the empirical analyses by Shiller and other authors which deny the traditional Present Value Model (PVM), provide new elements on the possible determinants of stock price volatility, and offer new interpretations of the potential links between the stock market and macroeconomic dynamics . JEL codes : C10; E39; G15
本研究探讨股价波动与股利动态,以及投机与失业之间可能的格兰杰因果关系。该分析是针对1982年至2018年期间的美国进行的。股价波动率是根据“条件”波动率和所谓的“席勒比率”计算的,而投机交易则被表示为“剥头皮”活动。我们发现投机行为与股价波动之间存在因果正相关关系。进一步,我们证明了股票价格与失业率之间存在负因果关系,而股息与失业率之间没有因果关系。这些结果证实了席勒和其他作者的实证分析,这些分析否定了传统的现值模型(PVM),为股票价格波动的可能决定因素提供了新的元素,并为股票市场和宏观经济动态之间的潜在联系提供了新的解释。JEL代码:C10;E39;G15
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引用次数: 3
Employment, innovation, and interfirm networks 就业、创新和企业间网络
IF 0.7 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-06-27 DOI: 10.13133/2037-3643_73.293_4
Andrea Fabrizi, Giuseppe Garofalo, G. Guarini, V. Meliciani
This paper studies the employment impact of business network agreements, an innovative policy instrument introduced in Italy in 2010 to stimulate interfirm cooperation, with the aim of increasing innovative capacity and market competitiveness. We estimate the impact of these networks on employment for a panel of Italian firms using a system generalized method of moments and considering the literature on the employment impact of innovation. We find that networks, which can be interpreted as a form of open innovation, have a positive impact on employment; moreover, this impact appears positively influenced by sectoral and regional heterogeneity of firms and the region’s innovation capacities. Overall, the results suggest that participation in networks where firms share industrial, commercial, and technical knowledge improves firm performance, creating synergies that help firms, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, to manage the growing complexity of knowledge and the fierce competition arising from increasingly globalized markets. JEL codes : D85, J2, O36
本文研究了商业网络协议对就业的影响,这是意大利2010年推出的一项创新政策工具,旨在刺激公司间合作,目的是提高创新能力和市场竞争力。我们使用系统广义矩法,并考虑了有关创新对就业影响的文献,估计了这些网络对意大利企业小组就业的影响。我们发现,网络可以被解释为一种开放创新形式,对就业有积极影响;此外,这种影响似乎受到企业部门和区域异质性以及区域创新能力的积极影响。总体而言,研究结果表明,参与企业共享工业、商业和技术知识的网络可以提高企业绩效,创造协同效应,帮助企业,特别是中小企业,应对日益复杂的知识和日益全球化的市场带来的激烈竞争。JEL代码:D85、J2、O36
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引用次数: 1
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PSL Quarterly Review
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