Pub Date : 2020-04-28DOI: 10.13133/2037-3643_73.292_3
L. Gabriel, L. Ribeiro, Frederico G. Jayme, J. Oreiro
This paper investigates the effects of manufacturing and of the real exchange rate (RER) on real per capita income growth. We use dynamic panel models and the calculation of output and employment multipliers for a diversified sample of countries from 1990 to 2011. Three important results can be highlighted. First, we provide new evidence that manufacturing is the most important tradable sector for achieving greater real per capita income growth for developing countries. Second, the greater a country’s gap in relation to the technological frontier, the greater the positive effect of an undervalued RER on the real per capita income growth rate. Finally, the manufacturing industry’s output multipliers and employment multipliers in the developing countries are higher than those in in developed ones, in all years analyzed. JEL codes : F43, L16, R15
{"title":"Manufactoring, economic growth, and real exchange rate: Empirical evidence in panel data and input-output multipliers","authors":"L. Gabriel, L. Ribeiro, Frederico G. Jayme, J. Oreiro","doi":"10.13133/2037-3643_73.292_3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13133/2037-3643_73.292_3","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the effects of manufacturing and of the real exchange rate (RER) on real per capita income growth. We use dynamic panel models and the calculation of output and employment multipliers for a diversified sample of countries from 1990 to 2011. Three important results can be highlighted. First, we provide new evidence that manufacturing is the most important tradable sector for achieving greater real per capita income growth for developing countries. Second, the greater a country’s gap in relation to the technological frontier, the greater the positive effect of an undervalued RER on the real per capita income growth rate. Finally, the manufacturing industry’s output multipliers and employment multipliers in the developing countries are higher than those in in developed ones, in all years analyzed. JEL codes : F43, L16, R15","PeriodicalId":44488,"journal":{"name":"PSL Quarterly Review","volume":"73 1","pages":"51-75"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2020-04-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46962726","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-04-28DOI: 10.13133/2037-3643_73.292_2
E. Araujo, E. Araujo, Mateus Ramalho Ribeiro da Fonseca, P. Silva
In light of the global financial cycle (GFC), this paper investigates the effectiveness of monetary policy in Brazil since the adoption of the inflation targeting regime. The theoretical section analyses monetary policy from the New Macroeconomic Consensus perspective, emphasizing the implications of the GFC. It also contrasts central bank theory with the post-Keynesian critique. For the empirical investigation, a Markov-switching vector autoregressive model is estimated from January 2000 to December 2017, combining the common variables from the empirical literature with the proxy for the GFC. The main results suggest that greater financial instability has a direct effect on domestic inflation . JEL codes : C14, E12, E42
{"title":"Inflation Targets Regime and global financial cycle: An assessment for the Brazilian economy","authors":"E. Araujo, E. Araujo, Mateus Ramalho Ribeiro da Fonseca, P. Silva","doi":"10.13133/2037-3643_73.292_2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13133/2037-3643_73.292_2","url":null,"abstract":"In light of the global financial cycle (GFC), this paper investigates the effectiveness of monetary policy in Brazil since the adoption of the inflation targeting regime. The theoretical section analyses monetary policy from the New Macroeconomic Consensus perspective, emphasizing the implications of the GFC. It also contrasts central bank theory with the post-Keynesian critique. For the empirical investigation, a Markov-switching vector autoregressive model is estimated from January 2000 to December 2017, combining the common variables from the empirical literature with the proxy for the GFC. The main results suggest that greater financial instability has a direct effect on domestic inflation . JEL codes : C14, E12, E42","PeriodicalId":44488,"journal":{"name":"PSL Quarterly Review","volume":"73 1","pages":"27-49"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2020-04-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44306988","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-04-28DOI: 10.13133/2037-3643_73.292_1
Massimo Amato, K. Nubukpo
Recent developments in the monetary situation in West Africa, in particular the transformation for the CFA franc area and the project to build a single currency for the CEDEAO/ECOWAS, require a systematic review of the assumptions underlying the formation of monetary unions. The article provides a critical review of the traditional theoretical foundations of optimal currency areas (OCAs) and their subsequent amendments, in light of the problems that emerged in the most relevant monetary unions. On specific points, a comparison is made between the eurozone and the CFA zone. The article then investigates the specific characteristics of the monetary area affected by the reform project, and finally it indicates the main lines along which the project of a common currency to all the states that currently make up the CEDEAO/ECOWAS could evolve, identifying four possible alternative roadmaps. JEL codes : F33, F53, F45
{"title":"A new currency for West African states: The theoretical and political conditions of its feasibility","authors":"Massimo Amato, K. Nubukpo","doi":"10.13133/2037-3643_73.292_1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13133/2037-3643_73.292_1","url":null,"abstract":"Recent developments in the monetary situation in West Africa, in particular the transformation for the CFA franc area and the project to build a single currency for the CEDEAO/ECOWAS, require a systematic review of the assumptions underlying the formation of monetary unions. The article provides a critical review of the traditional theoretical foundations of optimal currency areas (OCAs) and their subsequent amendments, in light of the problems that emerged in the most relevant monetary unions. On specific points, a comparison is made between the eurozone and the CFA zone. The article then investigates the specific characteristics of the monetary area affected by the reform project, and finally it indicates the main lines along which the project of a common currency to all the states that currently make up the CEDEAO/ECOWAS could evolve, identifying four possible alternative roadmaps. JEL codes : F33, F53, F45","PeriodicalId":44488,"journal":{"name":"PSL Quarterly Review","volume":"73 1","pages":"3-26"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2020-04-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48456556","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-01-01DOI: 10.13133/2037-3643_73.295_2
A. Gomes
This paper sets out to analyse and compare the growth performances of two Chinese cities, Nanjing and Suzhou. Their growth performances have varied over time, with one city outperforming the other in some periods, and with the reverse scenario taking place in other times. In order to explain this phenomenon, this study makes use of a Kaldorian analytical framework, highlighting key notions such as demand-led growth, path-dependency, lock-in effects and inter-relatedness. It will be argued that regional economic growth is explained by the match – or otherwise – between a city’s productive structure and China’s national aggregate demand composition. JEL codes :P25; R11; N95 Download Online appendix
{"title":"Regional economic growth in China from a Kaldorian perspective: A comparative study of Nanjing and Suzhou","authors":"A. Gomes","doi":"10.13133/2037-3643_73.295_2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13133/2037-3643_73.295_2","url":null,"abstract":"This paper sets out to analyse and compare the growth performances of two Chinese cities, Nanjing and Suzhou. Their growth performances have varied over time, with one city outperforming the other in some periods, and with the reverse scenario taking place in other times. In order to explain this phenomenon, this study makes use of a Kaldorian analytical framework, highlighting key notions such as demand-led growth, path-dependency, lock-in effects and inter-relatedness. It will be argued that regional economic growth is explained by the match – or otherwise – between a city’s productive structure and China’s national aggregate demand composition. JEL codes :P25; R11; N95 Download Online appendix","PeriodicalId":44488,"journal":{"name":"PSL Quarterly Review","volume":"73 1","pages":"283-312"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66230233","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-01-01DOI: 10.13133/2037-3643_73.295_5
J. Felipe, Donna Faye Bajaro, Gemma Estrada, J. Mccombie
R The debate about whether technical progress causes technological unemployment, as the Luddites argued in the early 19 th century, has recently resurfaced in the context of new technologies and automation and the so-called Fourth Industrial Revolution. We review the main issues and then consider in detail the studies of Autor and Salomons (2017, 2018). They find that after both direct and indirect effects are accounted for, technical change is, on the aggregate, employment-augmenting. They find no evidence that technical change (proxied by the growth of productivity) reduces employment growth. We demonstrate that the regressions they estimate are problematic because they approximate an accounting identity. One or two variables in the identity (output growth or both output growth and capital growth) are omitted, which implies that the coefficient of productivity growth suffers from omitted-variable bias. As the omitted variable is known, we can have a good idea of what the statistical results must be. We conclude that, unfortunately, their work does not shed light on the question they address. JEL codes : E24, O30, O47
{"title":"What do tests of the relationship between employment and technical progress hide","authors":"J. Felipe, Donna Faye Bajaro, Gemma Estrada, J. Mccombie","doi":"10.13133/2037-3643_73.295_5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13133/2037-3643_73.295_5","url":null,"abstract":"R The debate about whether technical progress causes technological unemployment, as the Luddites argued in the early 19 th century, has recently resurfaced in the context of new technologies and automation and the so-called Fourth Industrial Revolution. We review the main issues and then consider in detail the studies of Autor and Salomons (2017, 2018). They find that after both direct and indirect effects are accounted for, technical change is, on the aggregate, employment-augmenting. They find no evidence that technical change (proxied by the growth of productivity) reduces employment growth. We demonstrate that the regressions they estimate are problematic because they approximate an accounting identity. One or two variables in the identity (output growth or both output growth and capital growth) are omitted, which implies that the coefficient of productivity growth suffers from omitted-variable bias. As the omitted variable is known, we can have a good idea of what the statistical results must be. We conclude that, unfortunately, their work does not shed light on the question they address. JEL codes : E24, O30, O47","PeriodicalId":44488,"journal":{"name":"PSL Quarterly Review","volume":"73 1","pages":"367-392"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66230264","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-01-01DOI: 10.13133/2037-3643_73.295_1
Carlo D’Ippoliti
This editorial note introduces to the current issue of the journal. On occasion of the centenary of the birth of Paolo Sylos Labini, to whom our journal is dedicated, Economia civile has devoted a special issue Moneta e Credito to the continuing topicality of his thought. Among the new initiatives of the Review, we highlight here the call for submissions of extensive book review articles, which we aim will be a further tool to foster the economic debate on our pages. JEL codes : B31, A11, H63
这篇社论介绍了该杂志的最新一期。值此保罗•西洛斯•拉比尼(Paolo Sylos Labini)诞辰100周年之际，《公民经济学》(Economia civil)专门制作了一期《货币与信用》(Moneta e Credito)专刊，以介绍他的思想的持续话题性。在《评论》的新举措中，我们在这里强调呼吁提交广泛的书评文章，我们的目标是将其作为进一步促进我们页面上经济辩论的工具。JEL代码:B31, A11, H63
{"title":"Editorial: books and debates in economics","authors":"Carlo D’Ippoliti","doi":"10.13133/2037-3643_73.295_1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13133/2037-3643_73.295_1","url":null,"abstract":"This editorial note introduces to the current issue of the journal. On occasion of the centenary of the birth of Paolo Sylos Labini, to whom our journal is dedicated, Economia civile has devoted a special issue Moneta e Credito to the continuing topicality of his thought. Among the new initiatives of the Review, we highlight here the call for submissions of extensive book review articles, which we aim will be a further tool to foster the economic debate on our pages. JEL codes : B31, A11, H63","PeriodicalId":44488,"journal":{"name":"PSL Quarterly Review","volume":"73 1","pages":"279-282"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66230188","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-01-01DOI: 10.13133/2037-3643_73.295_3
J. Oreiro, Luciano Luiz Manarin, Paulo Gala
We analyze the determinants of the deindustrialization of the Brazilian economy in the period between 1998 and 2017. This is a typical example of ‘premature deindustrialization’ in the sense that the major reason for the fall in the manufacturing share has not been the increase in per-capita income but rather real exchange rate overvaluation. In the Brazilian case, real exchange rate overvaluation results both from an appreciation of the real effective exchange rate, and an increase in the equilibrium value of the real exchange rate, the “industrial equilibrium exchange rate” of the new developmentalist literature. The elimination of the real exchange rate overvaluation requires not only the adoption of a macroeconomic policy regime in which some kind of real exchange rate targeting is adopted, but also industrial policies designed for increasing the economic complexity of the Brazilian economy and, hence, to reduce the equilibrium value of the real exchange rate. JEL codes : O11, O14, O24
{"title":"Deindustrialization, economic complexity and exchange rate overvaluation: the case of Brazil (1998-2017)","authors":"J. Oreiro, Luciano Luiz Manarin, Paulo Gala","doi":"10.13133/2037-3643_73.295_3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13133/2037-3643_73.295_3","url":null,"abstract":"We analyze the determinants of the deindustrialization of the Brazilian economy in the period between 1998 and 2017. This is a typical example of ‘premature deindustrialization’ in the sense that the major reason for the fall in the manufacturing share has not been the increase in per-capita income but rather real exchange rate overvaluation. In the Brazilian case, real exchange rate overvaluation results both from an appreciation of the real effective exchange rate, and an increase in the equilibrium value of the real exchange rate, the “industrial equilibrium exchange rate” of the new developmentalist literature. The elimination of the real exchange rate overvaluation requires not only the adoption of a macroeconomic policy regime in which some kind of real exchange rate targeting is adopted, but also industrial policies designed for increasing the economic complexity of the Brazilian economy and, hence, to reduce the equilibrium value of the real exchange rate. JEL codes : O11, O14, O24","PeriodicalId":44488,"journal":{"name":"PSL Quarterly Review","volume":"73 1","pages":"313-341"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66230248","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-01-01DOI: 10.13133/2037-3643_73.295_4
A. Thirlwall
This article gives a thorough critical review of Alessandro Roncaglia’s latest book The Age of Fragmentation: A History of Contemporary Economic Thought. The volume covers the antecedents of modern economics – the ideas of Wicksell, Keynes and Schumpeter in particular – followed by the post-war 2 ‘revolutions’ in microeconomics, macroeconomics and applied economics, including econometrics. Heterodox views of post-Keynesian economics; Marxism; institutional and evolutionary economics; post-utilitarian theorists; ethics, and welfare are also considered. JEL codes : B1, B2, B3, B5
{"title":"The Age of Fragmentation by Alessandro Roncaglia: A Review Article","authors":"A. Thirlwall","doi":"10.13133/2037-3643_73.295_4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13133/2037-3643_73.295_4","url":null,"abstract":"This article gives a thorough critical review of Alessandro Roncaglia’s latest book The Age of Fragmentation: A History of Contemporary Economic Thought. The volume covers the antecedents of modern economics – the ideas of Wicksell, Keynes and Schumpeter in particular – followed by the post-war 2 ‘revolutions’ in microeconomics, macroeconomics and applied economics, including econometrics. Heterodox views of post-Keynesian economics; Marxism; institutional and evolutionary economics; post-utilitarian theorists; ethics, and welfare are also considered. JEL codes : B1, B2, B3, B5","PeriodicalId":44488,"journal":{"name":"PSL Quarterly Review","volume":"73 1","pages":"343-365"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66230256","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-01-01DOI: 10.13133/2037-3643_73.295_6
Donald N. McCloskey
Obituary of Stefano Fenoaltea (1943-2020), economic historian and longtime collaborator of this journal. The author recalls her personal encounter with Stefano Fenoaltea and shortly but vividly summarizes his character and their friendship over the decades. JEL codes : B32, N13, N14
{"title":"Stefano Fenoaltea (1943-2020)","authors":"Donald N. McCloskey","doi":"10.13133/2037-3643_73.295_6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13133/2037-3643_73.295_6","url":null,"abstract":"Obituary of Stefano Fenoaltea (1943-2020), economic historian and longtime collaborator of this journal. The author recalls her personal encounter with Stefano Fenoaltea and shortly but vividly summarizes his character and their friendship over the decades. JEL codes : B32, N13, N14","PeriodicalId":44488,"journal":{"name":"PSL Quarterly Review","volume":"8 1","pages":"393-394"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66230281","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-12-01DOI: 10.13133/2037-3643_72.291_2
Alicia Girón, Monika Meireles, Andrea Reyes
This article aims to analyze how banking concentration and financial reorganization have occurred during the post-crisis period in Greece, Portugal and Spain, highlighting the continuity of three worrisome trends related to financial stability: an increase in bank asset volume, centralization of capital, and lower average profitability for banking activities. The methodological approach combines the review of the heterodox economic literature with the analysis of the financial statistics of the main banks in the three countries in the interpretation of the crisis. The article is divided into four sections: the first part briefly discusses the theoretical nature of the process of concentration and centralization of bank capital; the second section discusses the role of banks in the Eurozone crisis; the third section examines some statistics on the dynamics of the banking sector in both countries; and some conclusions are made in the final section. JEL codes: B26, G01, G2, G21
{"title":"Banking concentration and financial reorganization: Greece, Portugal, and Spain in the post-crisis period","authors":"Alicia Girón, Monika Meireles, Andrea Reyes","doi":"10.13133/2037-3643_72.291_2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13133/2037-3643_72.291_2","url":null,"abstract":"This article aims to analyze how banking concentration and financial reorganization have occurred during the post-crisis period in Greece, Portugal and Spain, highlighting the continuity of three worrisome trends related to financial stability: an increase in bank asset volume, centralization of capital, and lower average profitability for banking activities. The methodological approach combines the review of the heterodox economic literature with the analysis of the financial statistics of the main banks in the three countries in the interpretation of the crisis. The article is divided into four sections: the first part briefly discusses the theoretical nature of the process of concentration and centralization of bank capital; the second section discusses the role of banks in the Eurozone crisis; the third section examines some statistics on the dynamics of the banking sector in both countries; and some conclusions are made in the final section. JEL codes: B26, G01, G2, G21","PeriodicalId":44488,"journal":{"name":"PSL Quarterly Review","volume":"72 1","pages":"259-277"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2019-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48553105","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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