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Is there a pass-through from the international coff ee price to the Mexican coff ee market? 从国际coff ee价格到墨西哥coff ee市场有没有通道?
IF 1.2 Q4 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2021-08-14 DOI: 10.7896/j.2143
O. Gálvez-Soriano, Miguel Cortés
We estimate the transmission of coff ee prices from the international market to the Mexican market for the period 2004-2019. Our estimates are obtained from a single equation conditional Error Correction Model (ECM). We estimate our proposed model for two overlapping periods: before a hypothesised break (2004-2013), and full sample (2004-2019). The results of the first estimation suggest that given a 1% increase in the international price of coff ee, the Mexican price increases by 0.9%, which is larger than previous estimates in the literature, but a finding which is consistent with the idea of more market integration due to free trade agreements. Furthermore, we find that Mexican coff ee production has no eff ect in the determination of local coff ee prices. Our model also implies a previously undocumented break in the long-run relationship between international and national prices, which started in 2015 but was statistically significant until 2017. This latter finding suggests that the international coff ee price pass-through to the Mexican economy has come to an end.
我们估计了2004-2019年期间从国际市场到墨西哥市场的coff ee价格传输。我们的估计是从单方程条件误差校正模型(ECM)中获得的。我们估计了我们提出的两个重叠时期的模型:假设中断之前(2004-2013)和全样本(2004-2019)。第一次估计的结果表明,如果coff ee的国际价格上涨1%,墨西哥的价格将上涨0.9%,这比文献中以前的估计要大,但这一发现与自由贸易协定导致更多市场一体化的想法一致。此外,我们发现墨西哥咖啡生产对当地咖啡价格的确定没有影响。我们的模型还暗示了国际和国内价格之间的长期关系出现了以前没有记录的破裂,这种关系始于2015年,但在2017年之前一直具有统计意义。后一项发现表明,国际咖啡价格对墨西哥经济的影响已经结束。
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引用次数: 0
Tea export competitiveness and the nexus between tea export and economic growth: The cases of Bangladesh, India and Sri Lanka 茶叶出口竞争力及茶叶出口与经济增长的关系:以孟加拉国、印度和斯里兰卡为例
IF 1.2 Q4 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2021-08-14 DOI: 10.7896/j.2125
Md. Sayemul Islam, Nishat Sultana Ema, Sudipto Chakrobortty, Hasneen Jahan, M. Hossain
Tea export competitiveness and the nexus between tea export and economic growth: The cases of Bangladesh, India and Sri Lanka Long since the end of the British India regime, Bangladesh, India, and Sri Lanka have produced a signifi cant volume of tea which continues to bring them invaluable foreign currency earnings through exports. Our paper explores the tea export competitiveness of these countries by employing the Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) index, and analyses the nexus between tea export and economic growth over the period from 1980 to 2018 using several dynamic econometric approaches. Results suggest that Bangladesh has lost its tea export competitiveness over the last decade. India posted moderate performance, while Sri Lanka consistently kept its dominant position. Further, the Johansen Cointegration test outcomes report no long-run relationship between tea export and economic growth across all the countries. The Granger Causality outcomes illustrate that only in Sri Lanka is it the case that tea export causes short-run economic growth. Lastly, the impulse response function projects tea export and economic growth, taking into consideration the response of each to a shock from the other. Extrapolation from the results indicate that, in contrast to the cases of Bangladesh and India (where no direct relationship was found), tea export and economic growth are intimately interconnected in Sri Lanka. This article further recommends eff ective policies so that economic growth in these countries can remain steady and that their tea industries can thrive.
茶叶出口竞争力以及茶叶出口与经济增长之间的关系:以孟加拉国、印度和斯里兰卡为例自英属印度政权结束以来,孟加拉国、印度、斯里兰卡生产了大量茶叶,并继续通过出口为其带来宝贵的外汇收入。本文采用揭示对称比较优势指数(RSCA)对这些国家的茶叶出口竞争力进行了探讨,并采用几种动态计量方法分析了1980-2018年茶叶出口与经济增长之间的关系。结果表明,孟加拉国在过去十年中已经失去了茶叶出口竞争力。印度表现平平,而斯里兰卡则一直保持着主导地位。此外,Johansen协整检验结果显示,所有国家的茶叶出口与经济增长之间没有长期关系。格兰杰因果关系结果表明,只有在斯里兰卡,茶叶出口才会导致短期经济增长。最后,脉冲响应函数预测茶叶出口和经济增长,考虑了两者对另一方冲击的反应。结果推断表明,与孟加拉国和印度(没有发现直接关系)的情况相比,斯里兰卡的茶叶出口和经济增长密切相关。本文进一步建议采取有效的政策,使这些国家的经济增长保持稳定,并使其茶产业蓬勃发展。
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引用次数: 3
COVID-19, spatial market integration and producer prices: A case study of EU agri-food markets 2019冠状病毒病、空间市场一体化和生产者价格:以欧盟农产品市场为例研究
IF 1.2 Q4 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2021-08-14 DOI: 10.7896/j.2137
M. Hamulczuk, Marta Skrzypczyk
The spread of COVID-19 has had a signifi cant impact on economic and social activities, with the agri-food sector being no exception. Since the COVID-19 outbreak, numerous studies investigating its sectoral infl uence have been carried out, putting emphasis on demand and supply shocks and changes in trade volumes. However, there has not been much research into the implications of the pandemic for prices. To fi ll the research gap, this paper is an attempt to examine the impact of COVID-19 on producer prices in the EU-27 in Q2 and Q3 of 2020. The study is based on monthly data on trade in agri-food commodities according to the SITC classifi cation in 2015-2020 and the monthly producer prices index of food (2015 = 100) in the EU countries. It was assumed that the agri-food trade balance is the key factor determining the level and changes of domestic prices. The theoretical background for empirical research is provided by a spatial partial equilibrium model and the concept of spatial market integration. The results of the study reveal that there is a negative and statistically signifi cant relationship between an export-import ratio (which illustrates the country’s self-suffi ciency level) in the pre-COVID-19 period and price changes in Q2 of 2020 as well as Q3 of 2020. However, no statistically signifi cant results were obtained for the regression models explaining the relationship between changes in the export/import ratio and price changes in second and third quarters of 2020.
新冠肺炎的传播对经济和社会活动产生了重大影响,农产品部门也不例外。自新冠肺炎爆发以来,已开展了大量研究,调查其对行业的影响,重点关注需求和供应冲击以及贸易量的变化。然而,关于疫情对价格的影响,目前还没有太多研究。为了填补研究空白,本文试图研究新冠肺炎对2020年第二季度和第三季度欧盟27国生产者价格的影响。该研究基于2015-2020年SITC分类的农产品贸易月度数据和欧盟国家的月度食品生产者价格指数(2015=100)。据推测,农产品贸易平衡是决定国内价格水平和变化的关键因素。空间偏均衡模型和空间市场一体化概念为实证研究提供了理论背景。研究结果表明,COVID-19前时期的进出口率(反映了该国的自我效率水平)与2020年第二季度和2020年第三季度的价格变化之间存在着负的统计显著关系。然而,解释2020年第二季度和第三季度进出口比变化与价格变化之间关系的回归模型没有获得统计上显著的结果。
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引用次数: 5
Multidimensional assessment of European agricultural sector adaptation to climate change 欧洲农业部门适应气候变化的多维评估
IF 1.2 Q4 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.7896/j.2095
Kennedy Ndue, Pál Goda
been placed on how to mitigate the negative effects of climate change across the sector, causing it to fall behind in terms of adaptation. Although adaptation is now part of the sector’s development agenda, sectoral adaptation performance across member states remains low. In order to justify an accelerated adaptation process across the sector, the paper develops a Relative Climate Change Adaption Index (RCCAI) for the sector based on Eurostat data. The analysis shows that there is no single member state across the EU whose agricultural sector can be considered as fully climate-adapted (resilient), and thus validates the hypothesis that adaption efforts must be stepped up across the sector. To ensure continued sectoral adaptive capacity improvement, the paper recommends coherent integration and accelerated implementation of adaptation practices and policies alongside the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) for the sake of both private and public interests.
被放在如何减轻整个行业气候变化的负面影响上,导致该行业在适应方面落后。尽管适应现在是该部门发展议程的一部分,但各成员国的部门适应绩效仍然很低。为了证明整个行业加速适应过程的合理性,本文基于欧盟统计局的数据为该行业开发了一个相对气候变化适应指数(RCCAI)。分析表明,整个欧盟没有一个成员国的农业部门可以被认为是完全适应气候的(有弹性的),因此验证了必须在整个部门加强适应工作的假设。为了确保部门适应能力的持续提高,本文建议将适应实践和政策与共同农业政策(CAP)相结合,以实现私人和公共利益的一致整合和加速实施。
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引用次数: 5
Determinants for the viability of small-scale family farms in Serbia: an example of the use of a multi-criteria assessment tool 塞尔维亚小型家庭农场生存能力的决定因素:使用多标准评估工具的一个例子
IF 1.2 Q4 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.7896/j.2101
TOŠOVIĆ-STEVANOVIĆ, Ristanović, Lalić, Žuža, S. Stępień, Michał Borychowski
of 550 small farms in Serbia, which refers to the economic, social and environmental aspects of small farms’ operation. By applying the criteria for selecting key economic indicators of a small farm, the multi-criteria assessment results can be utilised to inform more effective business and policy decisions directed at improving the operation of small-scale family farms. The survey results show that the best-ranked determinants for the viability of small farms in Serbia are first, the price of agricultural products, and next, well-structured agricultural product distribution channels.
在塞尔维亚550个小农场中,这是指小农场经营的经济、社会和环境方面。通过应用选择小型农场关键经济指标的标准,多标准评估结果可用于为更有效的商业和政策决策提供信息,以改善小型家庭农场的经营。调查结果显示,塞尔维亚小农场生存能力的最佳决定因素是农产品价格,其次是结构良好的农产品分销渠道。
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引用次数: 1
The impact of the supply of farmland, level of agricultural mechanisation, and supply of rural labour on grain yields in China 中国耕地供给、农业机械化水平和农村劳动力供给对粮食产量的影响
IF 1.2 Q4 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.7896/j.2081
Meseret-Chanie Abate, Y. Kuang
impacts of farmland supply, rural-labour supply, and agricultural mechanisation development on grain-crop yields in China. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to co-integration and error correction was applied to data over the period 1978-2017. The results show that farmland supply and agricultural mechanisation developments are positively associated with the growth of grain-crop yields in both the short- and long-term. However, the impact of the rural labour supply on grain yield is insignificant. Strengthening farmland protection policies and promoting innovation-based agricultural mechanisation development plays an important role in sustainable food production. Future research should focus on improving the quality of farmland, agricultural mechanisation, and finding effective strategies to protect farmland for sustainable food production. Moreover, China’s efforts to enhance the multidimensional level of agricul tural mechanisation should be encouraged.
中国耕地供给、农村劳动力供给和农业机械化发展对粮食作物产量的影响。采用自回归分布滞后(ARDL)方法对1978-2017年期间的数据进行协整和误差校正。结果表明,在短期和长期内,农田供应和农业机械化发展与粮食作物产量的增长呈正相关。而农村劳动力供给对粮食产量的影响不显著。加强耕地保护政策,推动农业机械化创新发展,对实现粮食可持续生产具有重要意义。未来的研究应该集中在提高农田质量、农业机械化和寻找有效的策略来保护农田以实现可持续的粮食生产。此外,应该鼓励中国提高农业机械化多维水平的努力。
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引用次数: 6
Drivers of agricultural foreign divestment 农业外资撤资的驱动因素
IF 1.2 Q4 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.7896/j.2114
and Kubik, 2019; Kassem and Awad, 2012; Lv et al. , 2010; Rashid and Razak, 2017) but not FD. This paper uses multilateral FD data covering 1991 to 2017 for 50 countries. The paper focuses on agriculture globally. Identifying the factors that This paper has used multilateral foreign divestment (FD) data covering 1991 to 2017 for 50 countries, fitted to an optimised model based on microeconomic theory, to estimate the drivers of FD out of agriculture. Identifying the factors that determine FD would offer an opportunity for policymakers to know what kind of policies can discourage FD. Furthermore, knowledge of the directional effect would offer a way to use the policy variables to appropriately influence FD. Market size, exchange rate, political regime characteristics and transitions as well as the level of development drive FD out of agriculture globally. Trade openness and access to land resources have not been found to determine FD. Consequently, agricultural economy managers should work towards increasing the size of the agricultural economy; they should also liaise with their respective country’s Central Banks with a view to ensure exchange rate stability, and with their governments in order to promote better political regime characteristics and smoother political transitions.
Kubik, 2019年;Kassem and Awad, 2012;Lv等,2010;Rashid and Razak, 2017),但不是FD。本文使用50个国家1991年至2017年的多边FD数据。这篇论文的重点是全球农业。本文使用涵盖1991年至2017年的50个国家的多边外国撤资(FD)数据,拟合基于微观经济学理论的优化模型,以估计农业对外撤资的驱动因素。确定决定FD的因素将为政策制定者提供一个机会,让他们知道什么样的政策可以阻止FD。此外,了解定向效应将提供一种使用政策变量来适当影响FD的方法。市场规模、汇率、政治体制特点和转型以及发展水平等因素,推动FD在全球范围内退出农业。贸易开放和土地资源的获取并没有被发现决定FD。因此,农业经济管理者应该努力增加农业经济的规模;他们还应该与各自国家的中央银行保持联系,以确保汇率稳定,并与政府保持联系,以促进更好的政治制度特征和更顺利的政治过渡。
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引用次数: 9
The role of tax cuts on agricultural input prices in Turkey 减税对土耳其农业投入价格的影响
IF 1.2 Q4 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2020-12-08 DOI: 10.7896/j.2070
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引用次数: 1
Consumer perception of Hungarian agroforestry products – results of a Q-methodology attitude research study 消费者对匈牙利农林业产品的看法- q方法态度研究的结果
IF 1.2 Q4 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2020-12-08 DOI: 10.7896/j.2077
Boglárka Szerb, Jolán Horváth, V. Szente
85 were filled out with valid responses. As a result of our Q-analysis, we created 4 factors in order to minimise the number of factors and achieve a given level of total variance. Factor ‘A’ (N=26) “Alternative, Green Consumers” are committed to the products of the sustainable economy, so agroforestry products would also be of interest. Factor ‘B’ (N=21) “Inquisitive Consumers” are interested in and eager to be informed about the products purchased, and they are willing to pay more for agroforestry products. For Factor ‘C’ (N=10) “Busy Consumers”, the low ecological footprint of agroforestry products is a big advantage, and they can be reached with articles published on various news portals and online media most effectively. Opinion Groups ‘A’ and ‘B’ choose the traditional market for their purchases - this is why direct selling at local or farmers’ markets, fairs, or short supply chains can be beneficial. Potential consumers also appear to be willing to pay a higher price if they find an attractive product from an agroforestry system.
其中85份填写了有效回复。作为我们q分析的结果,我们创建了4个因素,以尽量减少因素的数量,并达到给定水平的总方差。因子A (N=26)“可选择的绿色消费者”致力于可持续经济的产品,因此农林业产品也会引起他们的兴趣。因子“B”(N=21)“好奇型消费者”对购买的产品感兴趣并渴望了解,愿意为农林业产品支付更高的价格。对于因子“C”(N=10)“忙碌的消费者”来说,农林业产品的生态足迹低是一个很大的优势,在各种新闻门户网站和网络媒体上发表文章是最有效的。意见组“A”和“B”选择传统市场进行采购——这就是为什么在当地或农贸市场、集市或短供应链上直接销售是有益的。如果潜在消费者从农林业系统中找到有吸引力的产品,他们似乎也愿意支付更高的价格。
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引用次数: 1
Influence of foreign direct investment and exchange rate on fisheries in Nigeria 外国直接投资和汇率对尼日利亚渔业的影响
IF 1.2 Q4 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2020-12-08 DOI: 10.7896/j.2084
Hephzibah Onyeje Obekpa, Ebenezer Frimpong, Aliyu Ayuba
on the growth and output of the agricultural sector in Nigeria with focus on the aggregate output. Some studies narrowed down focus on the crop subsector while neglecting the fisheries subsector which is an important source of cheap protein for our increasing population, a source of employment for the unem-ployed and also key to achieving the first three sustainable development goals 2030. In this study, we investigated the influ ence of FDI on agriculture and exchange rates on the output of the fisheries subsector using time series data that spans from 1980-2018. A Vector Autoregressive Model was also used alongside a growth model. The findings indicate positive growth in the fisheries subsector. FDI to agriculture and exchange rate movements were both found to affect the fisheries subsector positively in the long run, whereas only FDI to agriculture was found to exert a positive influence in the short run. Policies to attract FDI to the sector are thus advocated for, while macroeconomic policies to stabilise the Nigerian currency (naira) against the US dollar are also advised.
关注尼日利亚农业部门的增长和产出,重点关注总产出。一些研究缩小了对作物分部门的关注范围,而忽视了渔业分部门,而渔业分部门是我们不断增长的人口廉价蛋白质的重要来源,是失业者的就业来源,也是实现2030年前三个可持续发展目标的关键。在本研究中,我们使用1980-2018年的时间序列数据调查了FDI对农业和汇率对渔业分部门产出的影响。向量自回归模型与增长模型同时使用。调查结果表明,渔业分部门正出现增长。从长期来看,对农业的外国直接投资和汇率变动都对渔业分部门产生积极影响,而只有对农业的外国直接投资在短期内产生积极影响。因此,吸引外国直接投资到该行业的政策得到了提倡,同时,稳定尼日利亚货币(奈拉)兑美元汇率的宏观经济政策也得到了建议。
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引用次数: 1
期刊
Studies in Agricultural Economics
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