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Carbon risk real estate monitor: making decarbonisation in the real estate sector measurable 碳风险房地产监测:使房地产行业的脱碳可测量
IF 1.3 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2020-07-24 DOI: 10.1108/jerer-05-2020-0031
M. Spanner, J. Wein
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the functionality and effectiveness of the Carbon Risk Real Estate Monitor (CRREM tool). The aim of the project, supported by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program, was to develop a broadly accepted tool that provides investors and other stakeholders with a sound basis for the assessment of stranding risks.,The tool calculates the annual carbon emissions (baseline emissions) of a given asset or portfolio and assesses the stranding risks, by making use of science-based decarbonisation pathways. To account for ongoing climate change, the tool considers the effects of grid decarbonisation, as well as the development of heating and cooling-degree days.,The paper provides property-specific carbon emission pathways, as well as valuable insight into state-of-the-art carbon risk assessment and management measures and thereby paves the way towards a low-carbon building stock. Further selected risk indicators at the asset (e.g. costs of greenhouse gas emissions) and aggregated levels (e.g. Carbon Value at Risk) are considered.,The approach described in this paper can serve as a model for the realisation of an enhanced tool with respect to other countries, leading to a globally applicable instrument for assessing stranding risks in the commercial real estate sector.,The real estate industry is endangered by the downside risks of climate change, leading to potential monetary losses and write-downs. Accordingly, this approach enables stakeholders to assess the exposure of their assets to stranding risks, based on energy and emission data.,The CRREM tool reduces investor uncertainty and offers a viable basis for investment decision-making with regard to stranding risks and retrofit planning.,The approach pioneers a way to provide investors with a profound stranding risk assessment based on science-based decarbonisation pathways.
本文的目的是研究碳风险房地产监测(CRREM工具)的功能和有效性。该项目得到了欧盟“地平线2020”研究和创新计划的支持,旨在开发一种被广泛接受的工具,为投资者和其他利益相关者提供评估搁浅风险的可靠基础。该工具通过利用基于科学的脱碳途径,计算给定资产或投资组合的年度碳排放量(基线排放量),并评估搁浅风险。为了考虑持续的气候变化,该工具考虑了电网脱碳的影响,以及加热和冷却度天数的发展。本文提供了特定物业的碳排放路径,以及对最先进的碳风险评估和管理措施的宝贵见解,从而为低碳建筑存量铺平了道路。考虑资产上进一步选定的风险指标(如温室气体排放成本)和总体水平(如处于风险中的碳价值)。本文中描述的方法可以作为实现与其他国家相关的增强工具的模型,从而形成一种全球适用的工具,用于评估商业房地产部门的搁浅风险。房地产行业受到气候变化的下行风险的威胁,导致潜在的货币损失和资产减记。因此,这种方法使利益相关者能够根据能源和排放数据评估其资产面临的搁浅风险。CRREM工具减少了投资者的不确定性,为搁浅风险和改造规划的投资决策提供了可行的基础。该方法开创了一种方式,为投资者提供基于科学脱碳途径的深刻搁浅风险评估。
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引用次数: 3
Reframing the properties, places and crime paradigm: exploring spatiotemporal regime shifts 重构性质、地点和犯罪范式:探索时空制度变迁
IF 1.3 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2020-07-23 DOI: 10.1108/jerer-12-2019-0059
J. Delisle, T. Grissom, Brent Never
PurposeThe purpose of this study is to explore spatiotemporal factors that affect the empirical analysis of whether crime rates in buffer areas surrounding abandoned properties transferred to a Land Bank that differed among three regimes: before transfer, during Land Bank stewardship and after disposition and whether those differences were associated with differences in relative crime activity in the neighborhoods in which they were located.Design/methodology/approachThis study analyzed crime incidents occurring between 2010 and 2018 in 0.1-mile buffer areas surrounding 31 abandoned properties sold by the Land Bank and their neighborhoods in which those properties were located. Using Copulas, researchers compared concordance/discordance in the buffer areas across the three regime states for each property and approximately matched time periods for associated neighborhoods.FindingsIn a substantial number of cases, the relative crime activity levels for buffer areas surrounding individual sold properties as measured by the Copulas shifted from concordant to discordant states and vice versa. Similarly, relative crime activity levels for neighborhoods shifted from concordant to discordant states across three matched regimes. In some cases, the property and neighborhood states matched, while in other cases they diverged. These cross-level interactions indicate that criminal behavioral patterns and target selection change over time and relative criminal activity. The introduction of Copulas can improve the reliability of such models over time and when and where they should be customized to add more granular insights needed by law enforcement agencies.Research limitations/implicationsThe introduction of Copulas can improve the spatiotemporal reliability of the analysis of criminal activity over space and time.Practical implicationsSpatiotemporal considerations should be incorporated in setting interventions to manage criminal activity.Social implicationsThis study provides support for policies supporting renovation of abandoned properties.Originality/valueTo the best of authors’ knowledge, this research is the first application of Copulas to crime impact studies. As noted, Copulas can help reduce the risk of applying intervention or enforcement programs that are no longer reliable or lack the precision provided by insights into convergent/divergent patterns of criminal activity.
本研究的目的是探讨影响废弃物业周边缓冲地带的犯罪率是否在土地银行转让前、土地银行管理期间和处置后三种不同制度下转移到土地银行的时空因素,以及这些差异是否与他们所在社区的相对犯罪活动差异有关。设计/方法/方法本研究分析了2010年至2018年间发生在土地银行出售的31处废弃房产及其所在社区周围0.1英里缓冲区内的犯罪事件。使用copula,研究人员比较了缓冲区中每个属性的三种制度状态的一致性/不一致性,以及相关社区的近似匹配时间段。在相当数量的案例中,copula测量的个人出售房产周围缓冲区域的相对犯罪活动水平从和谐状态转变为不和谐状态,反之亦然。同样,在三个匹配的政权中,社区的相对犯罪活动水平从和谐状态转变为不和谐状态。在某些情况下,产权国和邻国是一致的,而在另一些情况下,它们是不一致的。这些跨层次的相互作用表明,犯罪行为模式和目标选择随着时间和相对犯罪活动的变化而变化。随着时间的推移,copula的引入可以提高这些模型的可靠性,并且可以在何时何地对它们进行定制,以增加执法机构所需的更细粒度的见解。研究局限/启示copula的引入可以提高犯罪活动在空间和时间上分析的时空可靠性。实际影响在制定管理犯罪活动的干预措施时应考虑到时空因素。社会意义本研究为支持废弃物业翻新的政策提供支持。原创性/价值据作者所知,本研究是copula在犯罪影响研究中的首次应用。如前所述,copula可以帮助降低应用干预或执法项目的风险,这些项目不再可靠,或者缺乏对犯罪活动趋同/发散模式的洞察力所提供的准确性。
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引用次数: 0
The impact of crime on apartment prices in Hamburg, Germany 犯罪对德国汉堡公寓价格的影响
IF 1.3 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2020-07-20 DOI: 10.1108/jerer-11-2019-0047
J. Graaff, J. Zietz
PurposeThe purpose of this study is to examine the impact of crime on apartment prices for Hamburg, Germany, for the years 2012 to 2017.Design/methodology/approachThe authors use a panel data setting with fixed effects estimators and temporal lags to moderate the endogeneity concerns related to crime. The authors consider the effect of total crime, violent and property crime and some sub-categories of crime.FindingsThe estimates show that it takes two to three years for prices to react, with the longer run elasticity reaching −0.12 for total crime, −0.15 for property crime and −0.06 for violent crime. The elasticities are much larger in high-crime areas (−0.22 for total crime, −0.28 and −0.09 for property and violent crime) and elevated also in low-income areas.Social implicationsThe finding that property crime matters more in terms of quantitative impact for housing values than violent crime provides reasonable grounds for rethinking the resource allocation of public spending on crime clearance and prevention in Germany. Far more emphasis on preventing property crime appears in order and especially so in the lower income or higher crime areas, which are significantly more affected by crime and in particular property crime than those in high income or low crime areas.Originality/valueThe estimates for Hamburg provide the first detailed results of the impact of crime on real estate prices in Germany. It is also the first study for Continental Europe using panel data.
本研究的目的是研究2012年至2017年德国汉堡的犯罪对公寓价格的影响。设计/方法/方法作者使用具有固定效应估计量和时间滞后的面板数据设置来缓和与犯罪相关的内生性问题。作者考虑了总犯罪、暴力犯罪和财产犯罪以及一些犯罪子类的影响。研究结果表明,价格需要两到三年的时间才能做出反应,长期弹性对总犯罪的影响为- 0.12,对财产犯罪的影响为- 0.15,对暴力犯罪的影响为- 0.06。高犯罪率地区的弹性要大得多(总犯罪率为- 0.22,财产犯罪和暴力犯罪分别为- 0.28和- 0.09),低收入地区的弹性也有所提高。社会意义财产犯罪对房屋价值的定量影响比暴力犯罪更重要,这一发现为重新思考德国用于清除和预防犯罪的公共支出的资源分配提供了合理的依据。对预防财产犯罪的重视程度要高得多,尤其是在低收入或高犯罪率地区,与高收入或低犯罪率地区相比,这些地区受到犯罪尤其是财产犯罪的影响要大得多。对汉堡的估计首次提供了犯罪对德国房地产价格影响的详细结果。这也是欧洲大陆首次使用面板数据进行研究。
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引用次数: 3
Rent dynamics in France between 1970 and 2013 1970年至2013年间法国的租金动态
IF 1.3 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2020-07-14 DOI: 10.1108/jerer-12-2019-0057
Alexis Pourcelot, A. Coën, Richard Malle, Arnaud Simon
The purpose of this study is to highlight the determinants of market rents and to build a hedonic market rent index for each urban area and rental sector in France for the period 1970–2013. The authors also analyse the market rent dynamics over this period, with a special attention to the turning points in the French housing policy.,For this purpose, the authors implement a hedonic model, called stratified time dummy variable, using the Box–Cox transformation as a functional form.,The contribution of this study to the housing research is threefold: First, the study improves our understanding of the French’s rental submarket specificities and their valuation. It sheds new light on the determinants of rents. Second, this study builds a hedonic market rent index over the period 1970–2013 for each geographical and sectoral segment (Paris urban area, urban areas of more and less than 100,000 inhabitants and private and public rental sectors). Third, this study explains rent dynamics focusing on the turning points in the French housing policy.,Finally, the authors provide the first long-term market rent index in France by submarket (geographical and sectoral). In the case of the French market, no long-term market rent exists. The only long series available is an indexed rent.
本研究的目的是强调市场租金的决定因素,并为法国每个城市地区和租赁部门建立1970-2013年期间的享乐市场租金指数。作者还分析了这一时期的市场租金动态,特别关注法国住房政策的转折点。为此,作者使用Box-Cox变换作为函数形式,实现了一个称为分层时间虚拟变量的享乐模型。本研究对住房研究的贡献有三个方面:首先,该研究提高了我们对法国租赁子市场特殊性及其估值的理解。它为租金的决定因素提供了新的视角。其次,本研究构建了1970-2013年期间每个地理和部门(巴黎市区、10万以上和10万以下居民的城区以及私人和公共租赁部门)的享乐市场租金指数。第三,本研究以法国住房政策的转折点为重点解释了租金动态。最后,作者提供了法国第一个按子市场(地理和部门)划分的长期市场租金指数。就法国市场而言,不存在长期市场租金。唯一可用的长序列是指数化租金。
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引用次数: 2
Assessing Dutch housing cycle and near-term market prospects 评估荷兰房地产周期和近期市场前景
IF 1.3 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2020-07-01 DOI: 10.1108/jerer-07-2019-0020
Arvydas Jadevicius, P. V. Gool
This study is a practice undertaking examining three main concerns that currently dominate Dutch housing market debate: how long is the cycle, will the current house price inflation continue and is housing market in a bubble. With national house prices reaching record highs across all major cities, future market prospects became a topic of significant debate among policymakers, investors and the populace.,A triangulation of well-established academic methods is used to perform investigation. The models include Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter, volatility autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH approximation) and right tail augmented Dickey–Fuller (Rtadf) test (bubble screening technique).,Interestingly, over the years from 1985 to 2019 research period, filtering extracts only one Dutch national housing cycle. This is a somewhat distinct characteristic compared to other advanced Western economies (inter alia the UK and the USA) where markets tend to experience 8- to 10-year gyrations. Volatility and Rtadf test suggest that current house prices in most Dutch cities are in excess of historical averages and statistical thresholds. House price levels in Almere, Amsterdam, The Hague, Groningen, Rotterdam and Utrecht are of particular concern.,Retail investors should therefore be cautious as they are entering the market at the time of elevated housing values. For institutional investors, those investing in long-term, housing in key Dutch metropolitan areas, even if values decline, is still an attractive investment conduit.
这项研究是一项实践,旨在研究目前主导荷兰房地产市场辩论的三个主要问题:周期有多长,目前的房价通胀是否会持续,以及房地产市场是否处于泡沫之中。随着全国所有主要城市的房价创下历史新高,未来的市场前景成为政策制定者、投资者和民众之间争论的一个重要话题。采用建立良好的学术方法的三角测量法进行调查。模型包括Hodrick-Prescott (HP)滤波、波动率自回归条件异方差(ARCH近似)和右尾增强Dickey-Fuller (Rtadf)检验(气泡筛选技术)。有趣的是,从1985年到2019年的研究期间,过滤只提取了一个荷兰国家住房周期。与其他发达的西方经济体(特别是英国和美国)相比,这是一个明显的特征,在这些经济体中,市场往往会经历8到10年的波动。波动性和Rtadf测试表明,目前荷兰大多数城市的房价都超过了历史平均水平和统计阈值。阿尔米尔、阿姆斯特丹、海牙、格罗宁根、鹿特丹和乌得勒支的房价水平尤其令人担忧。因此,散户投资者应该谨慎,因为他们是在房价上涨的时候进入市场的。对于机构投资者来说,那些在荷兰主要大都市地区投资长期住房的人,即使房价下跌,仍然是一个有吸引力的投资渠道。
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引用次数: 3
Combining realized measures to forecast REIT volatility 结合已实现指标预测房地产投资信托基金波动
IF 1.3 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2020-06-29 DOI: 10.1108/jerer-03-2020-0021
Jian Zhou
PurposeThis study aims to show that the best-performing realized measures vary across markets when it comes to forecast real estate investment trust (REIT) volatility. This finding provides little guidance for practitioners on which one to use when facing a new market. The authors attempt to fill the hole by seeking a common estimator, which can study for different markets.Design/methodology/approachThe authors do so by drawing upon the general forecasting literature, which finds that combinations of individual forecasts often outperform even the best individual forecast. The authors carry out the study by first introducing a number of commonly used realized measures and then considering several different combination strategies. The authors apply all of the individual measures and their different combinations to three major global REIT markets (Australia, UK and US).FindingsThe findings show that both unconstrained and constrained versions of the regression-based combinations consistently rank among the group of best forecasters across the three markets under study. None of their peers can do it including the three simple combinations and all of the individual measures. The conclusions are robust to the choice of evaluation metrics and of the out-of-sample evaluation periods.Originality/valueThe study provides practitioners with easy-to-follow insights on how to forecast REIT volatility, that is, use a regression-based combination of individual realized measures. The study has also extended the thin real estate literature on using high-frequency data to examine REIT volatility.
本研究旨在表明,在预测房地产投资信托基金(REIT)波动时,不同市场表现最佳的已实现指标有所不同。这一发现对从业者在面对新市场时使用哪一种方法提供了很少的指导。作者试图通过寻找一个可以研究不同市场的通用估计量来填补这一空白。设计/方法/方法作者通过借鉴一般预测文献来做到这一点,这些文献发现,个人预测的组合往往比最好的个人预测表现更好。作者首先介绍了一些常用的实现措施,然后考虑了几种不同的组合策略。作者将所有单项指标及其不同组合应用于全球三个主要房地产投资信托基金市场(澳大利亚、英国和美国)。研究结果表明,在研究的三个市场中,基于回归的组合的无约束和约束版本始终名列最佳预测者之列。包括三个简单的组合和所有的单独测量,他们的同龄人都做不到。结论对评价指标和样本外评价期的选择具有鲁棒性。独创性/价值该研究为实践者提供了如何预测REIT波动的易于遵循的见解,即使用基于回归的个人已实现指标组合。该研究还扩展了使用高频数据来检查房地产投资信托基金波动性的薄弱房地产文献。
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引用次数: 7
Do intrinsic rewards matter for real estate agents? 内在奖励对房地产经纪人重要吗?
IF 1.3 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2020-06-27 DOI: 10.1108/jerer-12-2019-0051
Pilar Mosquera, Maria Eduarda Soares, Daniel Oliveira
Rewards’ management has long been used as a panacea to promote job satisfaction and labour retention. However, the relationship between these variables is not clearly defined in the real estate industry, due to the scarcity of empirical studies. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the role of both satisfaction with intrinsic rewards (SIR) and satisfaction with extrinsic rewards (SER) on job satisfaction and turnover intention in the real estate industry.,Using a sample of 220 employees from the three largest real estate agencies in Portugal, the study analyses a conceptual framework and tests hypotheses by using partial least squares (PLS), along with importance-performance map analysis (IPMA).,Results indicate that both SIR and SER have a positive impact on job satisfaction. However, SER has a stronger impact on job satisfaction. Satisfaction with rewards and job satisfaction are negatively related to turnover intention. Job satisfaction mediates the relationship between satisfaction with rewards and turnover intention. Results also show gender and age differences. SIR is more important for women and younger agents. SER has similar importance for men and women, but higher importance for older agents.,Findings of this study extend the existing literature on rewards satisfaction and turnover intention to the context of the real estate industry. They present a contribution to the current debate on extrinsic vs intrinsic rewards for this particular industry.,Following the results of this research, real estate managers should consider intrinsic rewards because they also play a role for job satisfaction and turnover intentions. Human resource managers should consider identifying employees’ needs and motivations and then implement adequate strategies to promote their job satisfaction because it plays a mediating role between satisfaction with rewards and turnover intention. Reward strategies should also consider gender and age differences by giving women and younger agents more recognition, responsibilities and other intrinsic rewards because they are important for their job satisfaction.,Previous studies on real estate agents rewards appear to have only focussed on extrinsic rewards. To the best of the knowledge, this is the first study to analyse the effects of SIR on job satisfaction and turnover intention in the real estate industry. Also, to the best of the knowledge, this study is original in the use of IPMA to detect gender and age differences.
长期以来,奖励管理一直被用作提高工作满意度和劳动力保留率的灵丹妙药。然而,由于缺乏实证研究,这些变量之间的关系在房地产行业中并没有明确界定。本研究的目的是评估内在奖励满意度(SIR)和外在奖励满意度(SER)对房地产行业员工工作满意度和离职倾向的影响。使用来自葡萄牙三家最大的房地产机构的220名员工的样本,该研究分析了一个概念框架,并通过使用偏最小二乘法(PLS)以及重要性-绩效图分析(IPMA)来检验假设。研究结果表明,工作满意度和工作绩效对工作满意度均有正向影响。然而,SER对工作满意度的影响更大。奖励满意度和工作满意度与离职倾向呈负相关。工作满意度在奖励满意度与离职倾向之间起中介作用。结果还显示了性别和年龄的差异。SIR对女性和年轻特工更重要。SER对男性和女性的重要性相似,但对老年代理人的重要性更高。本研究的研究结果将现有关于薪酬满意度与离职意愿的文献扩展到房地产行业的背景下。他们对当前关于这一特定行业的外在奖励与内在奖励的争论做出了贡献。根据本研究的结果,房地产管理者应该考虑内在奖励,因为它们也对工作满意度和离职意愿起作用。人力资源管理者应该考虑识别员工的需求和动机,然后实施适当的策略来提高员工的工作满意度,因为它在奖励满意度和离职意愿之间起着中介作用。奖励策略还应考虑性别和年龄差异,给予女性和年轻经纪人更多的认可、责任和其他内在奖励,因为这对他们的工作满意度很重要。以前关于房地产经纪人报酬的研究似乎只关注外在报酬。据我所知,这是第一个分析SIR对房地产行业工作满意度和离职意向影响的研究。此外,据我所知,本研究是首次使用IPMA来检测性别和年龄差异。
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引用次数: 8
Advancing capacity to adapt to climate change: addressing information needs in the Australian property industry 提高适应气候变化的能力:解决澳大利亚房地产行业的信息需求
IF 1.3 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2020-06-18 DOI: 10.1108/jerer-03-2020-0017
G. Warren-Myers, A. Hurlimann, J. Bush
PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to understand the sources of climate change information used and trusted by key stakeholders in the Australian property industry, their information needs and their capacity to translate that information into decision-making.Design/methodology/approachQualitative research applying in-depth interviews with 24 key stakeholders from a diverse range of property/real estate companies in Australia.FindingsThis research identified a wide range of information types used by key stakeholders, ranging from reliance on unsophisticated mass media reporting to detailed analysis of scientific research. The capacity of stakeholders to translate this information for their organisation was polarised; 11 of the 24 interviewees indicated they had the capacity, while the other 13 indicated they did not, often owing to time horizons or lack of current interest within the organisation or from clients.Research limitations/implicationsThis research was limited to 24 in-depth interviews and is not intended to be a representative sample. However, this limitation is offset by the fact that a diverse range of stakeholders were interviewed and an in-depth and rich understanding has been provided about their approach to climate change.Practical implicationsThe results can inform the development of better communication channels for climate change for the property industry by supporting science-practice collaborations in the timely and effective dissemination of research. This is important to understand given the identified need to bridge the gap among research, policy and practice.Social implicationsClimate change poses significant challenges and risks for built environments. The property industry, as a key stakeholder, has great potential to influence current practices. The results reported here assist in addressing these challenges.Originality/valueAt present, limited research globally has been conducted about climate change actions in the property industry. This research responds to this gap.
本文的目的是了解澳大利亚房地产行业主要利益相关者使用和信任的气候变化信息的来源,他们的信息需求以及他们将这些信息转化为决策的能力。设计/方法/方法定性研究采用深度访谈24个主要利益相关者从不同的房地产/房地产公司在澳大利亚。本研究确定了主要利益相关者使用的广泛信息类型,从依赖简单的大众媒体报道到对科学研究的详细分析。利益相关者将这些信息转化为其组织的能力两极分化;24位受访者中有11位表示他们有能力,而另外13位表示他们没有能力,这通常是由于时间跨度或组织内部或客户缺乏当前兴趣。研究局限性/意义本研究仅限于24个深度访谈,并不打算成为代表性样本。然而,这一限制被以下事实所抵消,即采访了各种各样的利益相关者,并对他们应对气候变化的方法提供了深入而丰富的了解。实际意义研究结果可以通过支持科学-实践合作,及时有效地传播研究成果,为房地产行业发展更好的气候变化沟通渠道提供信息。鉴于已确定需要弥合研究、政策和实践之间的差距,理解这一点很重要。气候变化给建筑环境带来了巨大的挑战和风险。房地产业作为一个关键的利益相关者,有很大的潜力影响当前的做法。这里报告的结果有助于应对这些挑战。目前,全球范围内关于房地产行业应对气候变化行动的研究有限。这项研究回应了这一差距。
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引用次数: 10
Courts’ views on climate change inundation risks for developments: Australian perspectives and considerations for valuers 法院对气候变化淹没风险的看法:澳大利亚的观点和评估师的考虑
IF 1.3 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2020-06-18 DOI: 10.1108/jerer-03-2020-0019
L. Cradduck, G. Warren-Myers, Bianca Stringer
PurposeThis study aims to provide a development of the courts’ views of climate change risk in planning matters as related to inundation and suggest that valuers and others involved need to be aware of the implications these views have on property matters and valuation processes and reporting.Design/methodology/approachThis study engages in a legal doctrinal analysis of primary law sources, being Australian case law. It analyses decisions from Queensland, New South Wales and Victorian courts and tribunals, to establish their views of climate change risk for coastal area developments, who bears the risk and responsibility and if risk is shared.FindingsThe analysis reflects that developers bear the onus of proving their proposal meets relevant planning requirements including management and mitigation of climate change risks. However, the risk of developing in “at risk” areas is a shared burden, as local government authorities remain responsible for appropriately assessing applications against those requirements.Research limitations/implicationsThis study had several limitations, these included: only matters with a final determination were able to be reviewed and analysed; there is no one Australia-wide planning regime; state laws and policies are different and changing; and disputes are heard in different courts or tribunals, which can impact the weight and importance given to issues and the consistency of approaches.Practical implicationsThis research informs valuers of climate change risk issues related to the inundation of new, and re-, developments, and the importance of court decisions as an additional information consideration to inform their valuations.Originality/valueThis paper is significant as it provides an understanding of the Australian courts’ current views on climate change risk, and by extension, the implications and considerations for valuations.
目的本研究旨在提供法院对与洪水有关的规划事项中气候变化风险的观点的发展,并建议估价师和其他相关人员需要了解这些观点对财产事项、估值过程和报告的影响。设计/方法/方法本研究对主要法律来源(即澳大利亚判例法)进行法律理论分析。它分析了昆士兰州、新南威尔士州和维多利亚州法院和法庭的决定,以确定他们对沿海地区发展的气候变化风险的看法,谁承担风险和责任,以及风险是否共享。分析结果表明,开发商有责任证明他们的提案符合相关的规划要求,包括管理和缓解气候变化风险。然而,在“风险”地区发展的风险是一个共同的负担,因为地方政府当局仍然负责根据这些要求适当评估申请。研究局限性/影响本研究有几个局限性,包括:只有具有最终确定的事项才能进行审查和分析;澳大利亚没有统一的规划制度;各州的法律和政策各不相同,而且在不断变化;争端在不同的法院或法庭审理,这可能会影响对问题的权重和重要性以及方法的一致性。实际意义本研究为评估人员提供了与新开发和再开发淹没相关的气候变化风险问题,以及法院判决作为通知其估值的附加信息考虑的重要性。原创性/价值这篇论文很重要,因为它提供了对澳大利亚法院目前对气候变化风险的看法的理解,并由此延伸,对估值的影响和考虑。
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引用次数: 6
The size-growth relationship: a test of house price growth across the regions of the British Isles 规模增长关系:对不列颠群岛各地区房价增长的测试
IF 1.3 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2020-06-18 DOI: 10.1108/jerer-10-2019-0033
David Gray
PurposeThis paper aims to propose that a Neave-Worthington Match Test for Ordered Alternatives is a simple, non-parametric test that can be used to consider Gibrat’s law. Whether the law, that states that the proportional rate of growth is independent of absolute size, is supported by regional house price growth rates is considered. The Match Test is further used to test the applicability of beta-convergence and dual economy models to a house price context.Design/methodology/approachThe Match Test relates an actual rank order with an expected one. Gibrat’s law implies house price growth rates are independent of the absolute price levels. Beta-convergence posits that growth rates are inversely related to the initial price level. With a divergent system, there is a direct relationship between size-order and growth rates. As such, the Match Test is used to test alternative models of size-growth relationship.FindingsRather than convergence, there is a tendency to diverge across the UK, but not in Eire. That said, the size of growth shocks is related to price level on the upswing of a price cycle, but not in the down. Assigning the high-priced regions of the two islands into core and the rest into a periphery, total matching is dominated by the capital cities’ growth. The sigma-convergence observed in British house prices is likely to be associated with slower beta-divergence, not a convergent system. The law of Gibrat is not found to apply in a regional house price context.Research limitations/implicationsThis work only covers two countries and nineteen regions. Gibrat’s law in regional house prices may be better examined using a multi-country analysis.Practical implicationsAs the law of Gibrat is not found to apply in a regional house price context and core-regions appearing to dislocated, this has interesting implications for growth trend analysis and the claim of cointegration, which should be explored further. In particular, the level-growth relationship in the cyclical price upswing points to a ratcheting of differentials between high and low house price regions. The common trends in the long run may result from corrective periodic crashes. Not an ideal mechanism for policymakers.Originality/valueTo the best of the author’s knowledge, this paper makes a novel use of the Neave-Worthington test in the realm of regional convergence-divergence and in the first consideration of the law of Gibrat in a house price context across two countries.
本文的目的是提出有序选择的Neave-Worthington匹配检验是一个简单的、非参数的检验,可以用来考虑Gibrat定律。考虑到比例增长率与绝对规模无关的规律是否受到地区房价增长率的支持。匹配检验进一步用于检验贝塔收敛和二元经济模型在房价背景下的适用性。设计/方法/方法匹配测试将实际的等级顺序与预期的等级顺序联系起来。直布罗陀定律表明,房价增长率与绝对价格水平无关。贝塔收敛假设增长率与初始价格水平成反比。在发散型系统中,大小顺序和增长率之间存在直接关系。因此,Match Test用于测试规模-增长关系的备选模型。研究结果:英国各地的收入非但没有趋同,反而出现了分化的趋势,但爱尔兰没有。也就是说,增长冲击的大小与价格周期上行阶段的价格水平有关,而与下行阶段无关。将两岛的高房价区域划分为核心,其余区域划分为外围,总体匹配以首都城市的增长为主。在英国房价中观察到的西格玛收敛很可能与较慢的贝塔发散有关,而不是一个收敛系统。直布罗陀的法律并不适用于区域房价。研究局限/启示本研究仅涵盖两个国家和19个地区。直布罗陀在区域房价中的规律可以通过多国分析来更好地检验。由于直布罗陀定律没有被发现适用于区域房价背景和核心区域似乎错位,这对增长趋势分析和协整的主张有有趣的影响,应该进一步探讨。特别是,周期性价格上涨中的水平增长关系表明,高房价地区和低房价地区之间的差距在逐步扩大。长期的共同趋势可能源于纠正性的周期性崩溃。对政策制定者来说,这不是一个理想的机制。原创性/价值据作者所知,本文在区域收敛-分歧领域新颖地使用了Neave-Worthington检验,并首次考虑了直布罗特法在两国房价背景下的影响。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of European Real Estate Research
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