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Real estate development in the city of Athens during the financial crisis 金融危机期间雅典市的房地产开发
IF 1.3 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2021-06-08 DOI: 10.1108/JERER-09-2020-0051
Maria Nikitidou, F. Archontakis, Athanasios Tagkalakis
PurposeThis study aims to determine how the prices of residential properties in the Greek real estate sector are affected by their structural characteristics and by the prevailing economic factors during recession.Design/methodology/approachBased on 13,835 valuation reports for the city of Athens, covering a period of 11 years (2006–2016), this study develops a series of econometric models, taking into account both structural characteristics of the property market and the macroeconomic relevant variables. Finally, the city of Athens is divided into sub-regions and the different effects of the structural factors in each area are investigated via spatial analysis confirming the validity of the baseline model.FindingsFindings show that the size, age, level, parking and storage space can explain the property price movements. Moreover, the authors find evidence that it is primarily house demand variables (e.g. the annual average wage, the unemployment rate, the user cost of capital, financing constraints and expectations about the future course of the house market) that affect house prices in a statistically significant manner and with the correct sign. Finally, using a difference-in-differences approach, this study finds that an increase in house demand (on account of net migration) led to higher house prices in smaller and older than in larger and younger apartments in areas with high concentration of immigrants.Originality/valueThis study uses a novel data set to help entities, individuals and policy-makers to understand how the recent economic and financial crisis has affected the real estate market in Athens.
本研究旨在确定希腊房地产行业住宅物业的价格如何受到其结构特征和经济衰退期间普遍存在的经济因素的影响。基于雅典市11年(2006-2016)的13835份估值报告,本研究开发了一系列计量经济模型,同时考虑到房地产市场的结构特征和宏观经济相关变量。最后,将雅典城市划分为若干个子区域,并通过空间分析考察了每个区域结构因素的不同影响,验证了基线模型的有效性。研究结果显示,面积、楼龄、楼面、停车位及储物空间均可解释楼价变动。此外,作者发现的证据表明,主要是住房需求变量(例如,年平均工资、失业率、用户资本成本、融资约束和对住房市场未来走势的预期)以统计显著的方式影响房价,并具有正确的标志。最后,使用差异中的差异方法,本研究发现,在移民高度集中的地区,住房需求的增加(由于净移民)导致较小和较旧公寓的房价高于较大和较年轻公寓的房价。独创性/价值本研究使用一套新颖的数据集来帮助实体、个人和政策制定者了解最近的经济和金融危机如何影响雅典的房地产市场。
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引用次数: 1
Aggressive bidding strategies in real estate auctions – a structural equation modelling (SEM) approach 房地产拍卖中的激进竞价策略——结构方程建模(SEM)方法
IF 1.3 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2021-05-27 DOI: 10.1108/JERER-09-2020-0049
Simen Dalland, R. Hammervold, Henrik Tangen Karlsen, A. Oust, Ole Jakob Sønstebø
PurposeThis paper aims to study aggressive bidding strategies in real estate auctions – a structural equation modelling (SEM) approach.Design/methodology/approachThe authors use two data sets to study aggressive bidding strategies. First, the results from a survey with 1,803 participants examining real estate auctions are used to identify bidding strategies and related motivations. Second, the authors apply SEM by using data from 1,078 exclusive auction journals from real estate sales in Norway to study both the direct and indirect price effects of the bidding strategies.FindingsThe authors define four aggressive bidding strategies: high opening bid, high bid increase (jump bids), short acceptance deadline and short response time. The authors find that all four strategies yield a higher sales price. Bidders can actively influence the behaviour of the other participants and cool the potential auction fever, thus reducing the final price premium.Originality/valueThis paper gives households, investors and policymakers a better understanding of how bidding strategies affect real estate auctions and the final price.
本文旨在研究房地产拍卖中的积极出价策略-结构方程模型(SEM)方法。设计/方法/方法作者使用两个数据集来研究积极投标策略。首先,对1803名房地产拍卖参与者的调查结果被用来确定竞标策略和相关动机。其次,作者通过使用来自挪威房地产销售的1,078家独家拍卖期刊的数据,应用SEM来研究竞标策略的直接和间接价格效应。作者定义了四种积极的投标策略:高开价、高加价(跳标)、短接受期限和短响应时间。作者发现,这四种策略都会产生更高的销售价格。竞标者可以积极影响其他参与者的行为,冷却潜在的拍卖热,从而降低最终的价格溢价。本文让家庭、投资者和政策制定者更好地理解竞标策略如何影响房地产拍卖和最终价格。
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引用次数: 1
Inhibitors and facilitators of corporate real estate dynamic alignment 企业房地产动态调整的抑制因素与促进因素
IF 1.3 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2021-05-20 DOI: 10.1108/JERER-08-2020-0048
H. Cooke, R. Appel-Meulenbroek, T. Arentze
PurposeThis paper aims to identify the importance of individual variables in the corporate real estate (CRE) decision-making process.Design/methodology/approachNine experts received a posed scenario of a changed business strategy requiring a CRE reduction in individual interviews. Based on their suggested response, a decision network was modelled for each expert using the causal network elicitation technique, incorporating the utilities for decision variables and importance weights for attributes and benefits. The decision model offers a graphical representation of decision-benefit links for the decisions CRE managers make in such a period of decline.FindingsPerceived facilitators of CRE dynamic alignment were identified by calculating lift ratios on their perceived importance of the attributes they mentioned during the interviews as nodes in the network that link decisions to benefits. Facilitators included CRE metrics and workplace strategy, while capital expenditure and landlords inhibit alignment processes. The research provides more granular insight into the variables used in CRE decision-making and the factors that facilitate or inhibit the dynamic alignment process.Research limitations/implicationsThe research set a specific scenario for the experts to consider. That could be regarded as small but there was clear evidence of saturation of expert knowledge. Additional face-to-face interviews with the experts may have generated further details on the thought processes of the experts.Practical implicationsThe research provides more granular insight into the variables used in CRE decision-making and the factors that facilitate or inhibit the dynamic alignment process. Thereby providing CRE decision-makers with key elements for a decision model.Originality/valueThe research technique, causal network elicitation technique, uses semi-structured interviews to create decision networks, which is a technique that has not been widely applied to CRE research. The research provides a granular view of what are important inhibitors or facilitators of dynamic alignment of CRE to business strategy.
目的本文旨在确定个体变量在企业房地产(CRE)决策过程中的重要性。设计/方法/方法9位专家收到了一个提出的方案,要求改变商业战略,减少个人面试的CRE。基于他们建议的回应,使用因果网络启发技术为每个专家建模决策网络,结合决策变量的效用和属性和利益的重要性权重。该决策模型为CRE经理在这种衰退时期所做的决策提供了决策-效益联系的图形表示。通过计算他们在访谈中提到的属性的感知重要性的提升比来确定CRE动态对齐的感知促进者,这些属性是将决策与利益联系起来的网络节点。促进因素包括CRE指标和工作场所战略,而资本支出和房东抑制了对齐过程。该研究为CRE决策中使用的变量以及促进或抑制动态对齐过程的因素提供了更细致的见解。研究的局限性/意义这项研究为专家们设定了一个具体的场景来考虑。这可能被认为是很小的,但有明确的证据表明,专家知识已经饱和。与专家的进一步面对面访谈可能会产生关于专家思维过程的进一步细节。实际意义本研究为CRE决策中使用的变量以及促进或抑制动态校准过程的因素提供了更细致的见解。从而为CRE决策者提供决策模型的关键元素。原创性/价值研究技术,因果网络引出技术,使用半结构化访谈来创建决策网络,这是一种尚未广泛应用于CRE研究的技术。这项研究提供了一个细粒度的观点,什么是重要的抑制因素或促进因素,使CRE与商业战略动态一致。
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引用次数: 1
The Mortensen-Pissarides model and the empirical facts of housing markets Mortensen-Pissarides模型与房地产市场的经验事实
IF 1.3 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2021-05-07 DOI: 10.1108/JERER-07-2020-0044
Gaetano Lisi
PurposeThis paper aims to explain the main empirical facts of housing markets, notably the trade-off between housing price and time-on-the-market, the positive correlation between housing price and the number of contracts traded during a given period (i.e. the trading volume) and the existence of price dispersion.Design/methodology/approachThis theoretical paper makes use of a search and matching model. Search and matching, indeed, are two fundamental characteristics of the trading process in the housing market, and, thus, the search-and-matching models have become the new economic approach to the analysis of real estate markets.FindingsThis paper shows that a slightly modified version of the baseline search and matching model à la Mortensen-Pissarides can explain the main empirical facts of housing markets. There are two key mechanisms that allow to achieve this notable goal: a simple formalisation of the (reasonable) assumption that buyers today are potential sellers tomorrow (and vice versa); and the direct relationship between market tightness and house price, derived by the standard matching model and underestimated by the related literature.Research limitations/implicationsThe developed theoretical model only studies the equilibrium conditions. Indeed, it would be interesting to also study the disequilibrium in housing markets.Practical implicationsThe explanation of the main empirical facts of housing markets is embodied in the same and relatively simple theoretical model.Originality/valueIn addition to the explanation of the main empirical facts of housing markets, the developed theoretical model can generate an upward sloping Beveridge curve in the housing market (the positive relation between home-seekers and vacant houses). Instead, according to a recent criticism in the related literature, a model à la Mortensen-Pissarides inherently generates a (empirically unrealistic) downward sloping Beveridge curve.
本文旨在解释住房市场的主要经验事实,特别是房价与上市时间之间的权衡关系,房价与特定时期内交易的合同数量(即交易量)之间的正相关关系以及价格分散的存在。设计/方法/方法这篇理论论文使用了一个搜索和匹配模型。搜索和匹配确实是房地产市场交易过程的两个基本特征,因此,搜索和匹配模型已经成为房地产市场分析的新经济方法。研究结果表明,Mortensen-Pissarides的基线搜索和匹配模型稍加修改,可以解释房地产市场的主要经验事实。有两个关键机制可以实现这一显著目标:简单形式化(合理)假设,即今天的买家是明天的潜在卖家(反之亦然);市场松紧度与房价之间的直接关系是由标准匹配模型推导出来的,但被相关文献低估了。研究的局限性/启示已建立的理论模型只研究均衡条件。事实上,研究房地产市场的不均衡也会很有趣。对住房市场主要经验事实的解释体现在同一个相对简单的理论模型中。除了解释住房市场的主要经验事实外,所开发的理论模型还可以在住房市场上产生一条向上倾斜的贝弗里奇曲线(寻房者与空置房屋之间的正相关关系)。相反,根据相关文献中最近的一项批评,莫滕森-皮萨里德斯模型内在地产生了一条(在经验上不现实的)向下倾斜的贝弗里奇曲线。
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引用次数: 1
Performance determinants of European private equity real estate funds 欧洲私人股本房地产基金的业绩决定因素
IF 1.3 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2021-05-05 DOI: 10.1108/JERER-04-2020-0025
G. Morri, U. Perini, Rachele Anconetani
PurposeThe paper aims to investigate the performance determinants of European non-listed private equity real estate funds between 2001 and 2014.Design/methodology/approachUsing a sample of 363 funds collected from the Inrev database, the analysis evaluated the impact of fees and other intrinsic characteristics of these funds, such as leverage, size and duration, on the funds’ performance, intending to enhance the understanding underlying their relationship.FindingsThe findings show a negative relationship between the return of the funds and redemption fee, performance fee and management fee. Conversely, marketing fees have a positive effect on performance. When analyzing the investment style, the results reveal inhomogeneous behaviors of leverage on funds’ performance. This variable has a positive impact on the return in core funds, while there is a negative relationship in value-added investments. Finally, the emphasis on the global financial crisis shows that the effects of the independent variables on the performance do not significantly change in different economic cycles.Practical implicationsThe practical implication of the research is to understand whether an investor can direct its resources in a fund, leveraging on certain intrinsic characteristics that can be observed a priori.Originality/valueEven if there is a considerable body of literature on determinants of performance in European non-listed real estate funds, little research has analyzed the role of fees in driving their results. Besides, this paper takes advantage of observations from different investment styles to emphasize the impact of higher or lower risk profiles and from the full economic cycle to understand the effects of the crisis period.
目的研究2001 - 2014年欧洲非上市私募股权房地产基金的绩效决定因素。设计/方法/方法使用从Inrev数据库中收集的363只基金样本,分析了费用和这些基金的其他内在特征(如杠杆、规模和持续时间)对基金业绩的影响,旨在加强对它们之间关系的理解。研究结果表明,基金收益与赎回费、绩效费和管理费呈负相关。相反,营销费用对业绩有积极影响。在分析投资风格时,结果显示杠杆对基金业绩的影响是不均匀的。该变量对核心基金的收益有正向影响,而对增值投资则有负向影响。最后,对全球金融危机的强调表明,在不同的经济周期中,自变量对绩效的影响没有显著变化。实际意义本研究的实际意义在于了解投资者是否可以利用可以观察到的某些先天内在特征,将其资源投入基金。原创性/价值尽管有大量关于欧洲非上市房地产基金业绩决定因素的文献,但很少有研究分析费用在推动业绩方面的作用。此外,本文利用不同投资风格的观察来强调较高或较低风险概况的影响,并从整个经济周期来理解危机时期的影响。
{"title":"Performance determinants of European private equity real estate funds","authors":"G. Morri, U. Perini, Rachele Anconetani","doi":"10.1108/JERER-04-2020-0025","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/JERER-04-2020-0025","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000The paper aims to investigate the performance determinants of European non-listed private equity real estate funds between 2001 and 2014.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000Using a sample of 363 funds collected from the Inrev database, the analysis evaluated the impact of fees and other intrinsic characteristics of these funds, such as leverage, size and duration, on the funds’ performance, intending to enhance the understanding underlying their relationship.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The findings show a negative relationship between the return of the funds and redemption fee, performance fee and management fee. Conversely, marketing fees have a positive effect on performance. When analyzing the investment style, the results reveal inhomogeneous behaviors of leverage on funds’ performance. This variable has a positive impact on the return in core funds, while there is a negative relationship in value-added investments. Finally, the emphasis on the global financial crisis shows that the effects of the independent variables on the performance do not significantly change in different economic cycles.\u0000\u0000\u0000Practical implications\u0000The practical implication of the research is to understand whether an investor can direct its resources in a fund, leveraging on certain intrinsic characteristics that can be observed a priori.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000Even if there is a considerable body of literature on determinants of performance in European non-listed real estate funds, little research has analyzed the role of fees in driving their results. Besides, this paper takes advantage of observations from different investment styles to emphasize the impact of higher or lower risk profiles and from the full economic cycle to understand the effects of the crisis period.\u0000","PeriodicalId":44570,"journal":{"name":"Journal of European Real Estate Research","volume":"46 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2021-05-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88557408","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Advancing futures thinking in the real estate field 推进房地产领域的期货思维
IF 1.3 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2021-03-22 DOI: 10.1108/JERER-01-2020-0003
S. Toivonen
PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to study the user experiences of the futures wheel method to investigate its suitability to advance futures thinking in the real estate field.Design/methodology/approachThe user experiences of the futures wheel method are investigated through questionnaire answers of 114 master’s level students and real estate experts taking part in future wheel workshops.FindingsThe futures wheel method could enhance future-oriented thinking and decision-making in the real estate field. The respondents see futures thinking as an important skill and recognize several advantages concerning the method.Practical implicationsThe futures wheel method bears great potential to be used in the real estate sector and it could be a fruitful addition to the curriculums at different education levels in real estate studies.Social implicationsFutures thinking is essential when aiming for sustainable decisions in the real estate field which again would benefit the whole surrounding society.Originality/valueThis paper is the first published paper concentrating on the user experiences of the future wheel method in the real estate sector. The benefits and the disadvantages of the method are investigated but also the attitudes indicating the potential of the method to be successfully adopted in the field are analyzed.
本文的目的是研究期货轮方法的用户体验,以探讨其在房地产领域推进期货思维的适用性。设计/方法/途径通过对114名参加未来车轮研讨会的硕士生和房地产专家的问卷调查,对未来车轮方法的用户体验进行了调查。发现期货轮方法可以增强房地产领域的前瞻性思维和决策能力。受访者认为期货思维是一项重要的技能,并认识到该方法的几个优势。实践意义期货轮方法在房地产领域具有很大的应用潜力,可以为不同教育层次的房地产研究课程提供有益的补充。社会影响在房地产领域做出可持续决策时,未来思维是必不可少的,这也将使整个周边社会受益。原创性/价值本文是第一篇专注于未来轮法在房地产领域的用户体验的论文。研究了该方法的优点和缺点,并分析了表明该方法在该领域成功采用的潜力的态度。
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引用次数: 4
The resilience and realignment of house prices in the era of Covid-19* 新冠肺炎时代房价的韧性和调整*
IF 1.3 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2021-02-21 DOI: 10.1108/JERER-11-2020-0055
John V. Duca, Martin Hoesli, Joaquim Montezuma
Purpose: The article analyzes the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on house prices. Design/Methodology/Approach: We start by discussing the possibility that house price indexes may not fully incorporate the effects of the pandemic as of yet. Against the background of the pandemic, we then analyze economic and behavioral effects affecting house prices. We also discuss how the linkages between tourism and house prices have been affected. We further present evidence of an emerging shift in preferences from urban locations to more peripheral ones. Findings: We report variance in the evolution of house prices across countries at the onset of the pandemic, with locations depending heavily on tourism showing slower price appreciation while appreciation has firmed in other places. We argue that the resilience of house prices is due not only to the low interest rate environment and government efforts to support firms and households, but also behavioral factors. In some locations, the price of condominiums has declined relative to the price of detached houses. This could indicate that wealthier households are seeking more space and larger units as a result of the crisis. There is also evidence of a downward pressure on rents, leading to increased price-rent ratios in the U.S. Originality/Value: By considering both economic and behavioral factors, this paper provides for a better understanding of the resilience and realignment of house prices at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.
目的:分析新冠肺炎疫情对房价的影响。设计/方法/方法:我们首先讨论房价指数可能尚未完全纳入大流行影响的可能性。在大流行的背景下,我们分析了影响房价的经济和行为影响。我们还讨论了旅游和房价之间的联系是如何受到影响的。我们进一步提出证据表明,人们的偏好正在从城市地区转向更外围的地区。研究结果:我们报告了疫情爆发时各国房价演变的差异,严重依赖旅游业的地区房价上涨速度较慢,而其他地方的房价上涨已经稳定。我们认为,房价的弹性不仅是由于低利率环境和政府支持企业和家庭的努力,而且是行为因素。在一些地区,共管公寓的价格相对于独立式住宅的价格有所下降。这可能表明,由于经济危机,较富裕的家庭正在寻求更大的空间。还有证据表明,租金面临下行压力,导致美国的租售比上升。独创性/价值:通过考虑经济和行为因素,本文可以更好地理解COVID-19大流行开始时房价的弹性和重新调整。
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引用次数: 10
Lifting the lid on the black box of corporate real estate decision-making; dealing with surplus property 揭开企业房地产决策黑箱的盖子;处理剩余财产
IF 1.3 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2021-02-06 DOI: 10.1108/JERER-05-2020-0029
H. Cooke, R. Appel-Meulenbroek, Theo Arentz
PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to identify the variables that influence corporate real estate (CRE) decision-making and gauge their relative importance to each other, thereby understanding the consequent challenges/implications for CRE managers (CREM’s).Design/methodology/approachInterviews were undertaken with experienced CREM’s using the causal network elicitation technique to create decision networks for the variables they considered for the specifically defined scenario: dealing with surplus property from a change of business strategy. These networks illustrate the complexity of the mental representations required for the realignment of the CRE portfolio. The key variables are more extensive than alignment theory suggests, namely, financial stakeholders. Additional variables identified include risk, lease accounting, costs, financial analysis, business metrics and motivational drivers. The latter indicates the importance of self-esteem and peer recognition for CREM’s and financial benefits for the C-suite. Accordingly strategy alignment needs to incorporate CRE both in terms of strategy creation and implementation.FindingsThese networks illustrate the complexity of the mental representations required for the realignment of the CRE portfolio. The key variables are more extensive than alignment theory suggests, namely, financial stakeholders. Additional variables identified include risk, lease accounting, costs, financial analysis, business metrics and motivational drivers. The latter indicates the importance of self-esteem and peer recognition for CREM’s and financial benefits for the C-suite. Accordingly, strategy alignment needs to incorporate CRE both in terms of strategy creation and implementation.Originality/valueThis research appears to be the first that looks in detail at the mental representations used by decision-makers while making CRE decisions.
本文的目的是确定影响企业房地产(CRE)决策的变量,并衡量它们相互之间的相对重要性,从而了解企业房地产经理(CREM)面临的挑战/影响。设计/方法/方法与经验丰富的CREM进行访谈,使用因果网络引出技术为他们为特定定义的场景所考虑的变量创建决策网络:处理商业战略变化带来的剩余财产。这些网络说明了重新调整CRE投资组合所需的心理表征的复杂性。关键变量比对齐理论所建议的更为广泛,即财务利益相关者。确定的其他变量包括风险、租赁会计、成本、财务分析、业务指标和动机驱动因素。后者表明自尊和同伴认可对CREM的重要性,以及对高管层的经济利益。相应地,战略调整需要在战略创建和实施方面结合CRE。这些网络说明了重新调整CRE投资组合所需的心理表征的复杂性。关键变量比对齐理论所建议的更为广泛,即财务利益相关者。确定的其他变量包括风险、租赁会计、成本、财务分析、业务指标和动机驱动因素。后者表明自尊和同伴认可对CREM的重要性,以及对高管层的经济利益。因此,战略一致性需要在战略创建和实施方面结合CRE。原创性/价值这项研究似乎是第一次详细研究决策者在做出CRE决策时所使用的心理表征。
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引用次数: 7
An analysis of papers published in the Journal of European Real Estate Research, 2008-2019 对2008-2019年发表在《欧洲房地产研究杂志》上的论文的分析
IF 1.3 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2021-01-18 DOI: 10.1108/JERER-04-2020-0027
Martin Hoesli
PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to analyze papers that have been published in the Journal of European Real Estate Research since its inception in 2008.Design/methodology/approachThe author analyzes papers published from 2008 to 2019 in the Journal of European Real Estate Research by authors’ country of affiliation, by country of study and by theme.FindingsThe Journal of European Real Estate Research publishes papers from scholars from an increasing number of countries, in particular in Central and Eastern Europe. Papers that provide a comparative analysis of countries constitute the largest category of contributions. The three most popular themes remain housing, valuation and investment/portfolio management. However, the dynamics of the three categories differ notably.Originality/valueThis paper provides for a clearer understanding of key dimensions of real estate research in Europe.
本文的目的是分析《欧洲房地产研究杂志》自2008年创刊以来发表的论文。设计/方法/方法作者根据作者所属国、研究国家和主题分析了2008年至2019年在《欧洲房地产研究杂志》上发表的论文。《欧洲房地产研究杂志》(Journal of European Real Estate Research)发表的论文来自越来越多的国家,尤其是中欧和东欧的学者。提供各国比较分析的论文构成了贡献的最大类别。最受欢迎的三个主题仍然是房地产、估值和投资/投资组合管理。然而,这三个类别的动态差异明显。原创性/价值本文对欧洲房地产研究的关键维度提供了更清晰的理解。
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引用次数: 1
Location, location, location!*: a quality-adjusted rent index for the Oslo office market 位置,位置,位置!*:奥斯陆写字楼市场的质量调整租金指数
IF 1.3 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.1108/jerer-02-2021-0009
A. Anundsen, Christian Bjørland, Marius Hagen
PurposeCommonly used rent indices are based on average developments or expert opinions. Such indices often suffer from compositional biases or low data coverage. The purpose of this paper is to overcome these challenges using the authors' approach.Design/methodology/approachThe authors construct a quality-adjusted rent index for the office market in Oslo using detailed data from 14,171 rental contracts.FindingsThe authors show that compositional biases can have a large impact on rental price developments. By adding building-fixed effects to a standard hedonic regression model, the authors show that the explanatory power increases considerably. Furthermore, indices excluding location-specific information, or which include less granular location controls than at the building level, portray quite a different picture of rent developments than indices that do take this into account. The authors also exploit information on contract signature date and find that a more timely detection of turning points can be achieved by using the signature date instead of the more typically used start date of the lease.Research limitations/implicationsThe study is confined to Norwegian data, and an avenue for future research would be to explore if similar results are obtained for other countries. A weakness with the paper is that authors' do not observe quality changes over time, such as renovation. Controlling for time-varying and unit-specific attributes in hedonic models for the commercial real estate (CRE) market would be useful to purge indices further for compositional effects and unobserved heterogeneity. While the authors do control for building-fixed effects, there are additional variations within a building (floor, view, sunlight, etc.) that the authors do not capture. Studies that could control for this would certainly be welcome, both in order to estimate the value of such amenities and to see how it affects estimated rent developments. Another promising avenue for future research is to link data on rental contracts in the CRE market with firm-specific information in order to explore how firm profitability and liquidity may affect rental contracts.Practical implicationsThe authors show that the hedonic index yields a sharper fall in rents after the global financial crisis and more muted developments in the period between 2013 and 2015 than the average rent index. The results show that rents have followed their estimated equilibrium closely and have re-adjusted quickly in periods of deviation. From a financial stability perspective, the risk of a sharp fall in rents is reduced because rents often are in line with their fundamentals.Social implicationsThe authors find that a more timely detection of turning points can be achieved by using information on the signature date. This is an important finding. The financial system is heavily exposed toward CRE, and timely detection of turning points is critical for policymakers.Originality/valueThe financial system i
目的常用的租金指数是基于平均发展或专家意见。这类指数往往存在成分偏差或数据覆盖率低的问题。本文的目的是利用作者的方法来克服这些挑战。设计/方法/方法作者使用来自14,171份租赁合同的详细数据,为奥斯陆的写字楼市场构建了一个质量调整租金指数。研究结果作者表明,构成偏差对租金价格的发展有很大的影响。通过在标准的享乐回归模型中加入建筑固定效应,作者表明解释力大大提高。此外,不包括特定地点信息的指数,或者不包括比建筑层面更细粒度的位置控制的指数,与考虑了这一因素的指数相比,描绘出了截然不同的租金发展图景。作者还利用了合同签署日期的信息,发现通过使用签署日期而不是更常用的租赁开始日期可以更及时地检测转折点。研究局限性/启示:该研究仅限于挪威的数据,未来的研究途径将是探索是否在其他国家获得类似的结果。这篇论文的一个缺点是作者没有观察到质量随时间的变化,比如更新。在商业房地产(CRE)市场的享乐模型中控制时变和单位特定属性将有助于进一步清除指数的组成效应和未观察到的异质性。虽然作者确实控制了建筑物固定效应,但建筑物内还有其他变化(楼层、视野、阳光等),作者没有捕捉到。能够控制这一点的研究当然是受欢迎的,既可以估计这些设施的价值,也可以看看它如何影响估计的租金发展。未来研究的另一个有希望的途径是将CRE市场的租赁合同数据与公司特定信息联系起来,以探索公司盈利能力和流动性如何影响租赁合同。实际意义:作者表明,与平均租金指数相比,享乐指数在全球金融危机后导致租金下跌幅度更大,在2013年至2015年期间的发展更为平缓。结果表明,租金密切遵循其估计均衡,并在偏离期间迅速重新调整。从金融稳定的角度来看,租金大幅下跌的风险降低了,因为租金往往与基本面相符。社会意义作者发现,通过使用签名日期的信息可以更及时地检测到转折点。这是一个重要的发现。金融体系对CRE的敞口很大,对政策制定者来说,及时发现转折点至关重要。金融系统对商业房地产市场的敞口很大,及时发现拐点对政策制定者来说非常重要。最后,作者使用我们的质量调整租金指数作为误差修正模型中的因变量。作者发现,就业和办公室存量是重要的解释变量。此外,研究结果表明,租金遵循其估计的均衡路径。
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引用次数: 2
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Journal of European Real Estate Research
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