Pub Date : 2022-03-14DOI: 10.1108/jerer-02-2021-0011
E. Marzano, Paolo Piselli, R. Rubinacci
PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to provide a dating system for the Italian residential real estate market from 1927 to 2019 and investigate its interaction with credit and business cycles.Design/methodology/approachTo detect the local turning point of the Italian residential real estate market, the authors apply the honeycomb cycle developed by Janssen et al. (1994) based on the joint analysis of house prices and the number of transactions. To this end, the authors use a unique historical reconstruction of house price levels by Baffigi and Piselli (2019) in addition to data on transactions.FindingsThis study confirms the validity of the honeycomb model for the last four decades of the Italian housing market. In addition, the results show that the severe downsizing of the housing market is largely associated with business and credit contraction, certainly contributing to exacerbating the severity of the recession. Finally, preliminary evidence suggests that whenever a price bubble occurs, it is coincident with the start of phase 2 of the honeycomb cycle.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first time that the honeycomb approach has been tested over such a long historical period and compared to the cyclic features of financial and real aggregates. In addition, even if the honeycomb cycle is not a model for detecting booms and busts in the housing market, the preliminary evidence might suggest a role for volume/transactions in detecting housing market bubbles.
{"title":"The housing cycle as shaped by prices and transactions: a tentative application of the honeycomb approach for Italy (1927–2019)","authors":"E. Marzano, Paolo Piselli, R. Rubinacci","doi":"10.1108/jerer-02-2021-0011","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jerer-02-2021-0011","url":null,"abstract":"PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to provide a dating system for the Italian residential real estate market from 1927 to 2019 and investigate its interaction with credit and business cycles.Design/methodology/approachTo detect the local turning point of the Italian residential real estate market, the authors apply the honeycomb cycle developed by Janssen et al. (1994) based on the joint analysis of house prices and the number of transactions. To this end, the authors use a unique historical reconstruction of house price levels by Baffigi and Piselli (2019) in addition to data on transactions.FindingsThis study confirms the validity of the honeycomb model for the last four decades of the Italian housing market. In addition, the results show that the severe downsizing of the housing market is largely associated with business and credit contraction, certainly contributing to exacerbating the severity of the recession. Finally, preliminary evidence suggests that whenever a price bubble occurs, it is coincident with the start of phase 2 of the honeycomb cycle.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first time that the honeycomb approach has been tested over such a long historical period and compared to the cyclic features of financial and real aggregates. In addition, even if the honeycomb cycle is not a model for detecting booms and busts in the housing market, the preliminary evidence might suggest a role for volume/transactions in detecting housing market bubbles.","PeriodicalId":44570,"journal":{"name":"Journal of European Real Estate Research","volume":"210 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2022-03-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73014830","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-19DOI: 10.1108/jerer-01-2021-0002
Paloma Taltavull de La Paz, J. Berry, David McIlhatton, David Chapman, Katja Bergonzoli
PurposeThis paper focusses on analysing the impact of crime on the housing market in Los Angeles (LA) County. By looking at different types of crime instead of general crime measures and controlling by spatial dimension of prices and crime as well as endogeneity, a model is developed that allows for the understanding of how a specific crime impacts the housing market transaction price. To perform the analysis, the paper merges different data sets (crime, housing transaction and census data) and then computes the distances to crucial transport modes to control the accessibility features affecting housing prices. The latter allows estimating the association of housing prices and crime in the distance and estimating the impact on housing depending on it.Design/methodology/approachThis paper focusses on the following crimes: aggravated assault, burglary (property crime), narcotics, non-aggravated assault and vandalism. The paper shows firstly how incidents of reported crime are distributed across space and how they are related to each other – thus highlighting crime models with spatial influences. Secondly, the research utilises instrumental variables within the methodology to estimate house prices using spatial analysis techniques while controlling for endogeneity. Thirdly, it estimates the direct impact of crime on house prices and explores the impact of housing and neighbourhood features.FindingsResults suggest that house transaction prices and crime are closely correlated in two senses. Housing prices are endogenously negatively associated with the levels of narcotics and aggravated assaults. For narcotics, the impact of distance is shorter (1,000 m). However, for burglary, vandalism and non-aggravated assaults, the price reaction suggests a positive association: the further away the crime occurs, the higher the prices. The paper also shows the large spatial association of different crimes suggesting that they occur together and that their accumulation would make negative externalities appear affecting the whole neighbourhood.Research limitations/implicationsThe use of a huge database allows interesting findings, but one limitation can be to not have longer time observations to identify the crime evolution and its impact on housing prices.Practical implicationsLarge implications as the relationship identified in this paper allow defining precise policies to avoid crime in different areas in LA. In addition, crime has significant but quantitative small effects on LA housing transaction prices suggesting that the effect depends on the spatial scale as well as lack on information about where the crimes are committed. Lack on information suggests low transparency in the market, affecting the transaction decision-taken process, affecting the risk perception and with relevant implications over household welfare.Originality/valueThis paper relates the spatial association among crimes defining the hotspots and their impacts on housing transaction prices.
{"title":"The impact of crimes on house prices in LA County","authors":"Paloma Taltavull de La Paz, J. Berry, David McIlhatton, David Chapman, Katja Bergonzoli","doi":"10.1108/jerer-01-2021-0002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jerer-01-2021-0002","url":null,"abstract":"PurposeThis paper focusses on analysing the impact of crime on the housing market in Los Angeles (LA) County. By looking at different types of crime instead of general crime measures and controlling by spatial dimension of prices and crime as well as endogeneity, a model is developed that allows for the understanding of how a specific crime impacts the housing market transaction price. To perform the analysis, the paper merges different data sets (crime, housing transaction and census data) and then computes the distances to crucial transport modes to control the accessibility features affecting housing prices. The latter allows estimating the association of housing prices and crime in the distance and estimating the impact on housing depending on it.Design/methodology/approachThis paper focusses on the following crimes: aggravated assault, burglary (property crime), narcotics, non-aggravated assault and vandalism. The paper shows firstly how incidents of reported crime are distributed across space and how they are related to each other – thus highlighting crime models with spatial influences. Secondly, the research utilises instrumental variables within the methodology to estimate house prices using spatial analysis techniques while controlling for endogeneity. Thirdly, it estimates the direct impact of crime on house prices and explores the impact of housing and neighbourhood features.FindingsResults suggest that house transaction prices and crime are closely correlated in two senses. Housing prices are endogenously negatively associated with the levels of narcotics and aggravated assaults. For narcotics, the impact of distance is shorter (1,000 m). However, for burglary, vandalism and non-aggravated assaults, the price reaction suggests a positive association: the further away the crime occurs, the higher the prices. The paper also shows the large spatial association of different crimes suggesting that they occur together and that their accumulation would make negative externalities appear affecting the whole neighbourhood.Research limitations/implicationsThe use of a huge database allows interesting findings, but one limitation can be to not have longer time observations to identify the crime evolution and its impact on housing prices.Practical implicationsLarge implications as the relationship identified in this paper allow defining precise policies to avoid crime in different areas in LA. In addition, crime has significant but quantitative small effects on LA housing transaction prices suggesting that the effect depends on the spatial scale as well as lack on information about where the crimes are committed. Lack on information suggests low transparency in the market, affecting the transaction decision-taken process, affecting the risk perception and with relevant implications over household welfare.Originality/valueThis paper relates the spatial association among crimes defining the hotspots and their impacts on housing transaction prices.","PeriodicalId":44570,"journal":{"name":"Journal of European Real Estate Research","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2022-01-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89329642","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-12DOI: 10.1108/jerer-05-2021-0029
Olawumi Fadeyi, S. McGreal, M. McCord, J. Berry, M. Haran
PurposeThe London office market is a major destination of international real estate capital and arguably the epicentre of international real estate investment over the past decade. However, the increase in global uncertainties in recent years due to socio-economic and political trends highlights the need for more insights into the behaviour of international real estate capital flows. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the influence of the global and domestic environment on international real estate investment activities within the London office market over the period 2007–2017.Design/methodology/approachThis study adopts an auto-regressive distributed lag approach using the real capital analytics (RCA) international real estate investment data. The RCA data analyses quarterly cross-border investment transactions within the central London office market for the period 2007–2017.FindingsThe study provides insights on the critical differences in the influence of the domestic and global environment on cross-border investment activities in this office market, specifically highlighting the significance of the influence of the global environment in the long run. In the short run, the influence of factors reflective of both the domestic and international environment are important indicating that international capital flows into the London office market is contextualised by the interaction of different factors.Originality/valueThe authors provide a holistic study of the influence of both the domestic and international environment on cross-border investment activities in the London office market, providing more insights on the behaviour of global real estate capital flows.
{"title":"Influence of the global environment on capital flows in the London Office market","authors":"Olawumi Fadeyi, S. McGreal, M. McCord, J. Berry, M. Haran","doi":"10.1108/jerer-05-2021-0029","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jerer-05-2021-0029","url":null,"abstract":"PurposeThe London office market is a major destination of international real estate capital and arguably the epicentre of international real estate investment over the past decade. However, the increase in global uncertainties in recent years due to socio-economic and political trends highlights the need for more insights into the behaviour of international real estate capital flows. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the influence of the global and domestic environment on international real estate investment activities within the London office market over the period 2007–2017.Design/methodology/approachThis study adopts an auto-regressive distributed lag approach using the real capital analytics (RCA) international real estate investment data. The RCA data analyses quarterly cross-border investment transactions within the central London office market for the period 2007–2017.FindingsThe study provides insights on the critical differences in the influence of the domestic and global environment on cross-border investment activities in this office market, specifically highlighting the significance of the influence of the global environment in the long run. In the short run, the influence of factors reflective of both the domestic and international environment are important indicating that international capital flows into the London office market is contextualised by the interaction of different factors.Originality/valueThe authors provide a holistic study of the influence of both the domestic and international environment on cross-border investment activities in the London office market, providing more insights on the behaviour of global real estate capital flows.","PeriodicalId":44570,"journal":{"name":"Journal of European Real Estate Research","volume":"82 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2022-01-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76127547","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-12-21DOI: 10.1108/jerer-03-2021-0013
T. Borgersen
PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to analyse the interaction between a profit maximising mortgagor and a newcomer to a mortgage market with Bertrand competition where the newcomer has a populistic entry strategy and undercuts mortgage market rates. The intention of the paper is to relate the populistic entry strategy to mortgage market characteristics and the strategic market position of both the established mortgagor and the newcomer in question.Design/methodology/approachThe paper analyses a mortgage market by combining the behaviour of a profit maximising mortgagor with that of a newcomer to the mortgage market which has a populistic entry strategy and does not maximise profits. The short-run market solution provides comparative statics on the strategic market position of both the established mortgagor and the newcomer to the mortgage market during the entry phase both related to product differentiation and to price mirroring and undercutting of mortgage rates.FindingsThe model finds a mortgage market solution where a lower mortgage rate helps the newcomer gain a customer base. As the newcomer's strategy to mirror prices makes it unable to pass-through funding cost to its mortgage rate, the strategy is unsustainable over time. The established mortgagor has a strategically beneficial position as the mortgage market rates only relate to its funding cost. Unless the newcomer has a funding cost advantage, the established mortgagor has a higher interest rate margin. Differentiation impacts the newcomers’ interest rate margin positively. If the newcomer lacks a funding cost advantage, there is a critical mirroring rate that ensures it a higher interest rate margin. The higher the newcomers’ own funding cost, the higher is the upper bound for price mirroring, relating market entry to a small undercutting of mortgage rates and a mortgage market with weak competition. The funding cost of the established mortgagor pulls pricing in the opposite direction, allowing for a lower mirroring rate and tougher mortgage market competition during entry.Originality/valueThe paper aims to contribute to the understanding of market equilibrium in the absence of profit maximising behaviour. Framing a mortgage market in terms of a duopoly where a newcomer enters with a populistic entry strategy offering a lower mortgage rate and a mortgage product with a different loan-to-value (LTV) ratio, a novel mortgage market case comes about. The populistic entry strategy produces an augmented reaction curve, crucial for the mortgage market rates.
{"title":"Product differentiation and populistic entry strategies in a mortgage market with Bertrand competition","authors":"T. Borgersen","doi":"10.1108/jerer-03-2021-0013","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jerer-03-2021-0013","url":null,"abstract":"PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to analyse the interaction between a profit maximising mortgagor and a newcomer to a mortgage market with Bertrand competition where the newcomer has a populistic entry strategy and undercuts mortgage market rates. The intention of the paper is to relate the populistic entry strategy to mortgage market characteristics and the strategic market position of both the established mortgagor and the newcomer in question.Design/methodology/approachThe paper analyses a mortgage market by combining the behaviour of a profit maximising mortgagor with that of a newcomer to the mortgage market which has a populistic entry strategy and does not maximise profits. The short-run market solution provides comparative statics on the strategic market position of both the established mortgagor and the newcomer to the mortgage market during the entry phase both related to product differentiation and to price mirroring and undercutting of mortgage rates.FindingsThe model finds a mortgage market solution where a lower mortgage rate helps the newcomer gain a customer base. As the newcomer's strategy to mirror prices makes it unable to pass-through funding cost to its mortgage rate, the strategy is unsustainable over time. The established mortgagor has a strategically beneficial position as the mortgage market rates only relate to its funding cost. Unless the newcomer has a funding cost advantage, the established mortgagor has a higher interest rate margin. Differentiation impacts the newcomers’ interest rate margin positively. If the newcomer lacks a funding cost advantage, there is a critical mirroring rate that ensures it a higher interest rate margin. The higher the newcomers’ own funding cost, the higher is the upper bound for price mirroring, relating market entry to a small undercutting of mortgage rates and a mortgage market with weak competition. The funding cost of the established mortgagor pulls pricing in the opposite direction, allowing for a lower mirroring rate and tougher mortgage market competition during entry.Originality/valueThe paper aims to contribute to the understanding of market equilibrium in the absence of profit maximising behaviour. Framing a mortgage market in terms of a duopoly where a newcomer enters with a populistic entry strategy offering a lower mortgage rate and a mortgage product with a different loan-to-value (LTV) ratio, a novel mortgage market case comes about. The populistic entry strategy produces an augmented reaction curve, crucial for the mortgage market rates.","PeriodicalId":44570,"journal":{"name":"Journal of European Real Estate Research","volume":"201 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2021-12-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76996709","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-12-17DOI: 10.1108/jerer-01-2020-0004
K. Dmytrów, Wojciech Kuźmiński
PurposeOur research aims in designation of a hybrid approach in the calibration of an attribute impact vector in order to guarantee its completeness in case when other approaches cannot ensure this.Design/methodology/approachReal estate mass appraisal aims at valuating a large number of properties by means of a specialised algorithm. We can apply various methods for this purpose. We present the Szczecin Algorithm of Real Estate Mass Appraisal (SAREMA) and the four methods of calibration of an attribute impact vector. Eventually, we present its application on the example of 318 residential properties in Szczecin, Poland.FindingsWe compare the results of appraisals obtained with the application of the hybrid approach with the appraisals obtained for the three remaining ones. If the database is complete and reliable, the econometric and statistical approaches could be recommended because they are based on quantitative measures of relationships between the values of attributes and properties' unit values. However, when the database is incomplete, the expert and, subsequently, hybrid approaches are used as supplementary ones.Originality/valueThe application of the hybrid approach ensures that the calibration system of an attribute impact vector is always complete. This is because it incorporates the expert approach that can be used even if the database excludes application of approaches that are based on quantitative measures of relationship between the unit real estate value and the value of attributes.
{"title":"Calibration of impact of attributes in the real estate mass appraisal","authors":"K. Dmytrów, Wojciech Kuźmiński","doi":"10.1108/jerer-01-2020-0004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jerer-01-2020-0004","url":null,"abstract":"PurposeOur research aims in designation of a hybrid approach in the calibration of an attribute impact vector in order to guarantee its completeness in case when other approaches cannot ensure this.Design/methodology/approachReal estate mass appraisal aims at valuating a large number of properties by means of a specialised algorithm. We can apply various methods for this purpose. We present the Szczecin Algorithm of Real Estate Mass Appraisal (SAREMA) and the four methods of calibration of an attribute impact vector. Eventually, we present its application on the example of 318 residential properties in Szczecin, Poland.FindingsWe compare the results of appraisals obtained with the application of the hybrid approach with the appraisals obtained for the three remaining ones. If the database is complete and reliable, the econometric and statistical approaches could be recommended because they are based on quantitative measures of relationships between the values of attributes and properties' unit values. However, when the database is incomplete, the expert and, subsequently, hybrid approaches are used as supplementary ones.Originality/valueThe application of the hybrid approach ensures that the calibration system of an attribute impact vector is always complete. This is because it incorporates the expert approach that can be used even if the database excludes application of approaches that are based on quantitative measures of relationship between the unit real estate value and the value of attributes.","PeriodicalId":44570,"journal":{"name":"Journal of European Real Estate Research","volume":"15 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2021-12-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76815227","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-10-28DOI: 10.1108/jerer-03-2021-0016
K. Liow, J. Song
PurposeWith growing interdependence between financial markets, the goal of this paper is to examine the dynamic interdependence between corporate equity and public real estate markets for the USA and a select group of seven European developed economies under a cross-country framework in crisis and boom market conditions. Dynamic interdependence is related to four measures of market linkages of “correlation, spillover, connectedness and causality”.Design/methodology/approachThis study adopts a four-step investigation. The authors first estimate “time-varying variance–covariance spillovers and implied correlations” modeled with the bivariate BEKK-MGARCH methods. Second, the methods of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012, 2014) measure the conditional volatility spillover-connectedness effects across the corporate equity and public real estate markets based on a decomposition of the forecast error variance. Third, the authors implement nonlinear bivariate and multivariate causality tests to understand the lead-lag dynamics of the two asset markets' returns, volatilities and net directional volatility connectedness across different sample periods. Finally, the authors conclude the study by providing a portfolio hedging analysis.FindingsThe authors find that corporate equity and public real estate are moderately interdependent to the extent that their diversification benefits increases in the longer term. Moreover, the authors find increased corporate equity-public real estate causal dependence of the market groups of the European and international portfolios during the GFC and INTERCRISIS periods. The nonlinear causality test findings indicate that the joint information of asset markets can be a useful source of prediction for future innovation of market risks. Additionally, policy makers may also be able to employ conditional volatility and volatility connectedness as two other measures to manage market stability in the cross-asset market dependence during highly volatile periods.Research limitations/implicationsOne major take away from this academic research is since international portfolio investors are not only concerned the long-term price relationship but also the correlation structure and volatility spillover-connectedness, the conditional BEKK modeling, generalized risk connectedness analysis and nonlinear causal dependence explorations from this multi-country study can shed fresh light on the nature of market interdependence and magnitude of volatility connectedness effects in a multi-portfolio framework.Practical implicationsThe hedging performance analysis for portfolio diversification and risk management indicates that industrial stocks (“pure” equities) are valuable assets that can improve the hedging performance of a well-diversified corporate equity-public real estate portfolio during crisis periods. For policymakers, the findings provide important information about the nature of causal links and predictability during the crisis and asset-market
{"title":"Interdependence dynamics of corporate equity and public real estate markets","authors":"K. Liow, J. Song","doi":"10.1108/jerer-03-2021-0016","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jerer-03-2021-0016","url":null,"abstract":"PurposeWith growing interdependence between financial markets, the goal of this paper is to examine the dynamic interdependence between corporate equity and public real estate markets for the USA and a select group of seven European developed economies under a cross-country framework in crisis and boom market conditions. Dynamic interdependence is related to four measures of market linkages of “correlation, spillover, connectedness and causality”.Design/methodology/approachThis study adopts a four-step investigation. The authors first estimate “time-varying variance–covariance spillovers and implied correlations” modeled with the bivariate BEKK-MGARCH methods. Second, the methods of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012, 2014) measure the conditional volatility spillover-connectedness effects across the corporate equity and public real estate markets based on a decomposition of the forecast error variance. Third, the authors implement nonlinear bivariate and multivariate causality tests to understand the lead-lag dynamics of the two asset markets' returns, volatilities and net directional volatility connectedness across different sample periods. Finally, the authors conclude the study by providing a portfolio hedging analysis.FindingsThe authors find that corporate equity and public real estate are moderately interdependent to the extent that their diversification benefits increases in the longer term. Moreover, the authors find increased corporate equity-public real estate causal dependence of the market groups of the European and international portfolios during the GFC and INTERCRISIS periods. The nonlinear causality test findings indicate that the joint information of asset markets can be a useful source of prediction for future innovation of market risks. Additionally, policy makers may also be able to employ conditional volatility and volatility connectedness as two other measures to manage market stability in the cross-asset market dependence during highly volatile periods.Research limitations/implicationsOne major take away from this academic research is since international portfolio investors are not only concerned the long-term price relationship but also the correlation structure and volatility spillover-connectedness, the conditional BEKK modeling, generalized risk connectedness analysis and nonlinear causal dependence explorations from this multi-country study can shed fresh light on the nature of market interdependence and magnitude of volatility connectedness effects in a multi-portfolio framework.Practical implicationsThe hedging performance analysis for portfolio diversification and risk management indicates that industrial stocks (“pure” equities) are valuable assets that can improve the hedging performance of a well-diversified corporate equity-public real estate portfolio during crisis periods. For policymakers, the findings provide important information about the nature of causal links and predictability during the crisis and asset-market ","PeriodicalId":44570,"journal":{"name":"Journal of European Real Estate Research","volume":"4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2021-10-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87022138","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-10-11DOI: 10.1108/jerer-04-2021-0024
Martin Hoesli, Richard Malle
Purpose
The article analyzes the effects of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on commercial real estate prices, with a particular focus on European markets.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors start by highlighting caveats to bear in mind when referring to direct real estate indices. The authors then analyze the behavior of commercial real estate prices during the pandemic, emphasizing differences across property types. For that purpose, the authors use data for both direct and listed real estate and further discuss changes in the main factors affecting commercial real estate pricing. The article then turns to discussing the likely trajectory of commercial real estate prices in the future.
Findings
The authors report that retail and hospitality properties and to a lesser extent office buildings have been affected the most by COVID-19, while the residential and industrial sectors have been less affected by the crisis. The authors maintain that the future trajectory of prices will vary across sectors and that the type and location of assets will become increasingly important in their valuation.
Originality/value
This paper provides for a better understanding of the behavior of commercial real estate prices during the COVID-19 pandemic.
{"title":"Commercial real estate prices and COVID-19","authors":"Martin Hoesli, Richard Malle","doi":"10.1108/jerer-04-2021-0024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jerer-04-2021-0024","url":null,"abstract":"<h3>Purpose</h3>\u0000<p>The article analyzes the effects of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on commercial real estate prices, with a particular focus on European markets.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\u0000<h3>Design/methodology/approach</h3>\u0000<p>The authors start by highlighting caveats to bear in mind when referring to direct real estate indices. The authors then analyze the behavior of commercial real estate prices during the pandemic, emphasizing differences across property types. For that purpose, the authors use data for both direct and listed real estate and further discuss changes in the main factors affecting commercial real estate pricing. The article then turns to discussing the likely trajectory of commercial real estate prices in the future.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\u0000<h3>Findings</h3>\u0000<p>The authors report that retail and hospitality properties and to a lesser extent office buildings have been affected the most by COVID-19, while the residential and industrial sectors have been less affected by the crisis. The authors maintain that the future trajectory of prices will vary across sectors and that the type and location of assets will become increasingly important in their valuation.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\u0000<h3>Originality/value</h3>\u0000<p>This paper provides for a better understanding of the behavior of commercial real estate prices during the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->","PeriodicalId":44570,"journal":{"name":"Journal of European Real Estate Research","volume":"25 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2021-10-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138524646","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-08-31DOI: 10.1108/jerer-03-2020-0016
Mohsen Shojaee-Far
PurposeIn geopolitical conflict zones, the phenomenon of abandonment often correlates with challenges of legal definitions and ownership status. The abandoned properties in conflict zones share similar characteristics with what is commonly known as a brownfield site. However, due to the nature of geopolitical conflict zones, which is mixed with people and sentiments other than technical challenges, the usual solutions to the brownfield question, cannot provide enough tools to deal with the land management of areas engulfed in conflicts. This paper, therefore, aims to discuss and propose a land-use typology that describes abandoned properties in a geopolitical context.Design/methodology/approachThe proposed land-use typology serves as the main conceptual framework that integrates the sustainable brownfield regeneration approach with social theories of space and place. As an inductive research approach, this conceptual framework brought the fundamental and comparative literature on brownfield regeneration to support the main argument related to the similarities and challenges of the regeneration of abandoned properties in conflict zones. The approach used in this paper addresses the broader consideration of land management in geopolitical contexts and urban conflict zones that considers the relationship of exercise of extreme power over space.FindingsThe findings highlight an insufficient understanding of the origin of the property problems in geopolitical conflict zones, especially after a power struggle, producing significant land management issues. In a geopolitical context, urban planners and economists' perspective on definitions of space and place defined by maps, GIS data sets, Excel and other similar tools may not bring any practical or long-term solution to the land management challenges. The study suggests that dealing with abandoned properties and regeneration plans in conflict zones requires identifying and evaluating geo-political, geo-social, geo-economic characteristics of the area before any further action.Practical implicationsThis paper's findings are of particular interest to decision-makers and conflict stakeholders in geopolitical conflict zones, such as local governments, policymakers and peacekeeping agencies. The findings of this research can clarify and help them have an alternative understanding of the space engulfed in the conflict, other than a technocratic, mapping, GIS, statistical way of understanding and approaches to the complex aspect of a space.Originality/valueThis paper's conceptual framework provides a value-added contribution to the literature on land management in conflict zones by taking the reader's attention to the origin of the problems and their associated real estate issues in geopolitical contexts. For the first time, this inductive research proposes a land-use typology that considers the complexity of the interrelationship between land policies, land-use theory, social theories of space and place and
{"title":"Assessment of abandoned properties in geopolitical conflict zones","authors":"Mohsen Shojaee-Far","doi":"10.1108/jerer-03-2020-0016","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jerer-03-2020-0016","url":null,"abstract":"PurposeIn geopolitical conflict zones, the phenomenon of abandonment often correlates with challenges of legal definitions and ownership status. The abandoned properties in conflict zones share similar characteristics with what is commonly known as a brownfield site. However, due to the nature of geopolitical conflict zones, which is mixed with people and sentiments other than technical challenges, the usual solutions to the brownfield question, cannot provide enough tools to deal with the land management of areas engulfed in conflicts. This paper, therefore, aims to discuss and propose a land-use typology that describes abandoned properties in a geopolitical context.Design/methodology/approachThe proposed land-use typology serves as the main conceptual framework that integrates the sustainable brownfield regeneration approach with social theories of space and place. As an inductive research approach, this conceptual framework brought the fundamental and comparative literature on brownfield regeneration to support the main argument related to the similarities and challenges of the regeneration of abandoned properties in conflict zones. The approach used in this paper addresses the broader consideration of land management in geopolitical contexts and urban conflict zones that considers the relationship of exercise of extreme power over space.FindingsThe findings highlight an insufficient understanding of the origin of the property problems in geopolitical conflict zones, especially after a power struggle, producing significant land management issues. In a geopolitical context, urban planners and economists' perspective on definitions of space and place defined by maps, GIS data sets, Excel and other similar tools may not bring any practical or long-term solution to the land management challenges. The study suggests that dealing with abandoned properties and regeneration plans in conflict zones requires identifying and evaluating geo-political, geo-social, geo-economic characteristics of the area before any further action.Practical implicationsThis paper's findings are of particular interest to decision-makers and conflict stakeholders in geopolitical conflict zones, such as local governments, policymakers and peacekeeping agencies. The findings of this research can clarify and help them have an alternative understanding of the space engulfed in the conflict, other than a technocratic, mapping, GIS, statistical way of understanding and approaches to the complex aspect of a space.Originality/valueThis paper's conceptual framework provides a value-added contribution to the literature on land management in conflict zones by taking the reader's attention to the origin of the problems and their associated real estate issues in geopolitical contexts. For the first time, this inductive research proposes a land-use typology that considers the complexity of the interrelationship between land policies, land-use theory, social theories of space and place and ","PeriodicalId":44570,"journal":{"name":"Journal of European Real Estate Research","volume":"58 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2021-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78974666","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-08-30DOI: 10.1108/JERER-06-2021-0034
P. H. Christensen
{"title":"Counterterrorism protective security as part of the planning, design and development of crowded places in Australia: where are we now?","authors":"P. H. Christensen","doi":"10.1108/JERER-06-2021-0034","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/JERER-06-2021-0034","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":44570,"journal":{"name":"Journal of European Real Estate Research","volume":"152 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2021-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79587820","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-08-24DOI: 10.1108/jerer-06-2020-0032
T. McGough, J. Berry
PurposeThe financial and economic turmoil that resulted from the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), included a marked increase in the volatility in real estate markets. Property asset prices were impacted by the real economy and market sentiment, particularly concerning the determination of risk. In an economic downturn, the perception of investment risk becomes increasingly important relative to overall total returns, and thus impacts on yields and performance of assets. In a recovery phase, and particularly within an environment of historically low government bonds, risk and return compete for importance. The aim of this paper is to assess the interrelationships and impacts on pricing between real estate risk, yield modelling outcomes and market sentiment in selective European city office markets.Design/methodology/approachThis paper specifically considers the modelling of commercial property pricing in relation to the appetite for risk in the financial markets. The paper expands on previous work by determining a specific measure of risk pricing in relationship to changing financial market sentiment. The methodology underpinning the research specifically examines the scope for using national and international risk pricing within specific real estate markets in Europe.FindingsThis paper addresses whether there is a difference between the impact of risk on the pricing of real estate in international versus regional cities in Europe. The analysis, therefore, determines which city centre office markets in Europe have been most impacted by globalisation including the magnitude on real estate prices and market volatility. The outcome of the paper provides important insights into how changes in risk preferences in the international capital markets have driven and continues to drive yield movements under different market conditions.Research limitations/implicationsThe paper considers the driving forces which have led to the volatile movements of yields, emanating from the GFC.Practical implicationsThis paper considers the property market effects on pricing of commercial real estate and the drivers in selected European cities.Originality/valueThe outcome of the paper provides important insights into how changes in risk preferences in the international capital markets have driven and continue to drive the yield movements in different real estate markets in Europe.
{"title":"Real estate risk, yield modelling and market sentiment: the impact on pricing in European office markets","authors":"T. McGough, J. Berry","doi":"10.1108/jerer-06-2020-0032","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jerer-06-2020-0032","url":null,"abstract":"PurposeThe financial and economic turmoil that resulted from the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), included a marked increase in the volatility in real estate markets. Property asset prices were impacted by the real economy and market sentiment, particularly concerning the determination of risk. In an economic downturn, the perception of investment risk becomes increasingly important relative to overall total returns, and thus impacts on yields and performance of assets. In a recovery phase, and particularly within an environment of historically low government bonds, risk and return compete for importance. The aim of this paper is to assess the interrelationships and impacts on pricing between real estate risk, yield modelling outcomes and market sentiment in selective European city office markets.Design/methodology/approachThis paper specifically considers the modelling of commercial property pricing in relation to the appetite for risk in the financial markets. The paper expands on previous work by determining a specific measure of risk pricing in relationship to changing financial market sentiment. The methodology underpinning the research specifically examines the scope for using national and international risk pricing within specific real estate markets in Europe.FindingsThis paper addresses whether there is a difference between the impact of risk on the pricing of real estate in international versus regional cities in Europe. The analysis, therefore, determines which city centre office markets in Europe have been most impacted by globalisation including the magnitude on real estate prices and market volatility. The outcome of the paper provides important insights into how changes in risk preferences in the international capital markets have driven and continues to drive yield movements under different market conditions.Research limitations/implicationsThe paper considers the driving forces which have led to the volatile movements of yields, emanating from the GFC.Practical implicationsThis paper considers the property market effects on pricing of commercial real estate and the drivers in selected European cities.Originality/valueThe outcome of the paper provides important insights into how changes in risk preferences in the international capital markets have driven and continue to drive the yield movements in different real estate markets in Europe.","PeriodicalId":44570,"journal":{"name":"Journal of European Real Estate Research","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2021-08-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88707887","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
京公网安备 11010802042870号
京ICP备2023020795号-1
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：