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Editorial: Real estate ontology 社论:房地产本体论
IF 1.3 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-10-11 DOI: 10.1108/jerer-09-2023-071
Michael White
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引用次数: 0
International retiree migration and housing markets. Evidence from Spain 国际退休人员移民和住房市场。来自西班牙的证据
Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-09-27 DOI: 10.1108/jerer-04-2023-0014
Paloma Taltavull de La Paz, Karen Martin Gibler
Purpose Large numbers of Northern European retirees have migrated to Southern European countries. A relevant part of this migration is not driven by work purposes but rather the desire to establish residence in a warmer country. These migrants come from different countries and exhibit diverse socioeconomic characteristics and preferences, including varying income levels, housing tastes and cultural habits, which could potentially influence the housing market in their host countries. This paper aims to examine the permanent impact of retiree migrant flows on house prices in Alicante, Spain, from 1988 to 2019, explicitly considering the impact related to the country of origin. Design/methodology/approach This paper examines the permanent impact of retiree migrant flows on house prices in Alicante, Spain, from 1988 to 2019, explicitly considering the impact related to the country of origin using panel cointegration – Dynamic Ordinary Least Squared (DOLS) models. Findings Results indicate that the long-term relationship captures the entire effect on house price change and that prices react immediately to the immigrants' presence with permanent effects. The results also suggest that the strong retiree migration flow created a shock in the housing market with different effects on house prices related to the immigrants' country of origin. The model identifies that when income growth in the origin country is slower than in Spain it has a major impact on house prices. When purchasing capacity is larger in Alicante than in the origin country it exerts a stronger effect on housing prices. Retiree migration flow has permanent effect on housing market prices. Practical implications Results indicate several ways to act on social and housing policies in specific cities in Alicante province, as well as in the origin countries, to alleviate potential disadvantages faced by expatriate retirees. Originality/value This paper finds evidence of the specific impact of international retiree migrants on the hosting housing market. This study is the first paper that can estimate the specific effect on housing prices from a flow of retiree migrants by country of origin.
大量北欧退休人员移民到南欧国家。这种移民的一个相关部分不是由工作目的驱动的,而是希望在一个更温暖的国家定居。这些移民来自不同的国家,表现出不同的社会经济特征和偏好,包括不同的收入水平、住房品味和文化习惯,这可能会影响东道国的住房市场。本文旨在研究1988年至2019年退休人员移民对西班牙阿利坎特房价的永久影响,并明确考虑与原籍国相关的影响。本文研究了1988年至2019年西班牙阿利坎特退休人员移民流动对房价的永久影响,使用面板协整-动态普通最小二乘(DOLS)模型明确考虑了与原籍国相关的影响。结果表明,长期关系捕获了对房价变化的全部影响,并且价格对移民的存在立即做出反应并产生永久性影响。研究结果还表明,强大的退休人员移民流动对住房市场产生了冲击,对移民原籍国相关房价的影响不同。该模型指出,当移民来源国的收入增长慢于西班牙时,它会对房价产生重大影响。当阿利坎特的购买力大于原籍国时,它对房价的影响更大。退休人员流动对住房市场价格具有永久性影响。结果指出了在阿利坎特省的具体城市以及原籍国就社会和住房政策采取行动的几种方法,以减轻外籍退休人员面临的潜在不利条件。本文发现了国际退休移民对东道国住房市场具体影响的证据。这项研究是第一篇可以按原籍国估计退休移民流动对房价具体影响的论文。
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引用次数: 0
Does the absence of share deals distort commercial real estate indicators? 股票交易的缺失是否扭曲了商业房地产指标?
IF 1.3 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-09-07 DOI: 10.1108/jerer-04-2022-0011
Farley Ishaak, Ron van Schie, Jan de Haan, H. Remøy
PurposeCommercial real estate (CRE) indicators typically include asset deals and exclude share deals. This study aims to explore the phenomenon of real estate share deals and assess whether omitting these transactions results in indicators that do not accurately reflect the market.Design/methodology/approachVarious registers in the Netherlands were used to estimate transaction volumes, total values and price developments of both share and asset deals. Share deals are company transfers and its transactions cover more than real estate. To estimate the contribution of real estate in share deals, valuations were used.FindingsIn the Netherlands, share deals are most prominent for rental dwellings. Adding share deals to volume and value indicators seems required. In price development estimates, significant differences were found for dwellings between share and asset deals. Price indices should, therefore, also include share deals, but in practice this is difficult and has little impact on the outcomes due to the low weight of share deals.Research limitations/implicationsLegislation has a major impact on choosing a share or asset deal. The significance of share deals is expected to vary amongst countries. Performing similar research in other countries will contribute in harmonising real estate indicators.Practical implicationsStatistical agencies face many challenges in the construction of CRE indicators. This study provides statisticians knowledge that can be used to evaluate possible data gaps.Originality/valueThis is the first study to estimate indicators of real estate share deals and compare these to asset deal indicators.
商业房地产(CRE)指标通常包括资产交易,不包括股票交易。本研究旨在探讨房地产股票交易现象,并评估忽略这些交易是否会导致指标不能准确反映市场。设计/方法/方法在荷兰使用各种登记册来估计股票和资产交易的交易量、总价值和价格发展。股票交易是公司转让,其交易范围比房地产更广。为了估计房地产在股票交易中的贡献,我们使用了估值方法。在荷兰,股票交易在出租住宅领域最为突出。将股票交易纳入交易量和价值指标似乎是必要的。在价格发展估算中,住宅价格在股票交易和资产交易之间存在显著差异。因此,价格指数也应该包括股票交易,但在实践中,这是困难的,而且由于股票交易的权重较低,对结果的影响很小。研究限制/影响立法对选择股票或资产交易有重大影响。股票交易的重要性预计因国家而异。在其他国家进行类似的研究将有助于协调房地产指标。现实意义统计机构在构建企业经济效益指标方面面临诸多挑战。这项研究为统计学家提供了可用于评估可能的数据差距的知识。原创性/价值这是第一个估计房地产股票交易指标并将其与资产交易指标进行比较的研究。
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引用次数: 0
Choosing annuities for a home reversion: the case of the French viager market 为家庭回归选择年金:以法国游客市场为例
IF 1.3 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-09-05 DOI: 10.1108/jerer-01-2023-0004
Jean-Baptiste Coulomb, F. Larceneux, Arnaud Simon
PurposeThe authors analyzed annuitization preferences when retired people extract cash from their homes. Based on 2,608 viager (home reversion) transactions, the authors study the relations between annuitization, negotiation, cash extraction, age, gender and marital status.Design/methodology/approachA database comprising 2,608 transactions is used. The three-stage least squares (3SLS) and moderation models are implemented, with a focus on potential adverse selection issues.FindingsThe authors found that difficulties in selling a property generally result in increased annuitization. The single men's group endures gender inequality, suffering from limitations in their possibility to extract wealth and annuitize, as well as an additional price discount during negotiation. Young single men, as compared to young single women and young couples, must consent to a substantial price reduction if they prefer a high down payment and limited price reductions if they prefer annuities. Elderly single men, as compared to young single men, have less capacity to negotiate, a concern that is reinforced when they prefer annuities.Originality/valueAmong the home equity conversion products, the academic real estate literature has intensely analyzed the reverse mortgage. The viager is distinct from a mortgage in that it consists of the true sale of a property without bank involvement. This product deserves reinforced attention in an aging continental Europe. It exists in numerous countries (France, Belgium, Germany, Italy, Spain, etc.).
目的分析退休人员从家中提取现金时的年金化偏好。本文以2608笔房产交易为研究对象,研究了年金化、议付、现金提取、年龄、性别和婚姻状况之间的关系。设计/方法/方法使用包含2,608个事务的数据库。实施了三阶段最小二乘(3SLS)和调节模型,重点关注潜在的逆向选择问题。研究结果作者发现,出售房产的困难通常会导致年金化的增加。单身男性群体忍受着性别不平等,他们榨取财富和年金的可能性受到限制,而且在谈判中还会有额外的价格折扣。年轻单身男性,与年轻单身女性和年轻夫妇相比,如果他们喜欢高首付,就必须同意大幅降价,如果他们喜欢年金,就必须同意有限的降价。与年轻的单身男性相比,年长的单身男性谈判的能力更弱,当他们更喜欢年金时,这种担忧就会得到加强。在房屋权益转换产品中,房地产学术文献对反向抵押进行了较为深入的分析。抵押贷款不同于抵押贷款,因为它是在没有银行参与的情况下真正出售财产。在老龄化的欧洲大陆,这款产品值得进一步关注。它存在于许多国家(法国,比利时,德国,意大利,西班牙等)。
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引用次数: 0
What is real estate? Five ontological questions for the discipline 什么是房地产?本学科的五个本体论问题
IF 1.3 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-08-10 DOI: 10.1108/jerer-08-2022-0022
O. A. K’Akumu
PurposeThe study seeks to identify and document definitional challenges that hamper the delineation of the scope of real estate as a discipline and as an industry. Through literature review the article distils the perception of body of knowledge (BOK) of real estate within the academia. Two main issues are flagged up: the problem of undefined BOK and the collegiate dilemma. Later the study looks at the standard economic classification documents to capture the occupational domains of real estate professionals or real estate activities. These steps are necessary to help define an alternative academic, practical and social meaning of real estate that is sufficient and precise.Design/methodology/approachThe study uses literature review and, as primary method, qualitative document analysis (QDA). The study has made a special appeal for the application of qualitative strategy in real estate research other than following the methodological orthodoxy of quantitative causal research designs. Further, it has argued for the recognition of QDA as a legitimate research method in the context of real estate studies. Consequently, the study performed QDA procedures on international economic classification standards.FindingsFrom literature review and QDA, the study identified five definitional problems in the meanings or understandings of real estate: undefined body of knowledge, collegiate dilemma, inadequate classification of real estate occupations, inadequate industry classification and inadequate economic sector positioning. These are aspects that lead to misconceptions of the true boundary of knowledge in society and in the academia. The paper offers clarity and insights for the redrawing of these boundaries to give real estate its rightful place in the academia and in the real world.Originality/valueThe article follows up on the academic and social misconceptions on the BOK of real estate as a discipline and an economic activity domain to identify the contribution of real estate to the welfare of mankind. Ontology or the organization of academic or social knowledge is used to map out or catalogue real estate against competing domains and to show that the role of real estate is grossly understated and misunderstood. From the findings, the study makes recommendations to university curriculum developers, and international organizations like ILO, and UN-DESA to revise their conceptions of real estate to give the discipline its rightful position in society.
目的本研究旨在确定并记录阻碍房地产作为一门学科和一个行业范围界定的定义挑战。本文通过文献综述,提炼出学术界对房地产知识体系的认识。报告提出了两个主要问题:未定义的BOK问题和大学困境。随后,研究着眼于标准经济分类文件,以捕捉房地产专业人员或房地产活动的职业领域。这些步骤是必要的,以帮助定义一个替代的学术,实践和社会意义的房地产是充分和精确的。设计/方法/方法本研究采用文献综述,定性文献分析(QDA)作为主要方法。该研究特别呼吁定性策略在房地产研究中的应用,而不是遵循定量因果研究设计的方法学正统。此外,它还主张在房地产研究的背景下承认QDA是一种合法的研究方法。因此,本研究按照国际经济分类标准进行了QDA程序。通过文献回顾和QDA分析,本研究发现在房地产的含义或理解上存在五个定义问题:知识体系不明确、大学困境、房地产职业分类不充分、行业分类不充分和经济部门定位不充分。这些方面导致了社会和学术界对知识真正边界的误解。本文为重新绘制这些边界提供了清晰和见解,以使房地产在学术界和现实世界中享有应有的地位。本文通过对学术界和社会学界对房地产作为一门学科和经济活动领域的认识误区的梳理,确定了房地产对人类福祉的贡献。本体或学术或社会知识的组织被用来绘制或分类房地产与竞争领域,并表明房地产的作用被严重低估和误解。根据调查结果,该研究向大学课程开发商以及国际劳工组织和联合国经社部等国际组织提出了建议,以修改他们对房地产的概念,使该学科在社会中获得应有的地位。
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引用次数: 0
A factor analysis of landlords’ and retail trade tenants’ different beliefs in lease negotiations: evidence from the Swedish market 房东和零售贸易租户在租赁谈判中不同信念的因素分析:来自瑞典市场的证据
IF 1.3 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-07-18 DOI: 10.1108/jerer-08-2022-0023
B. Lundgren, Cecilia Hermansson, Filip Gyllenberg, Johan Koppfeldt
Purpose The purpose is to increase knowledge of rent negotiations by investigating differences in beliefs held by property landlords and retailers on factors that they deem important in rent negotiation.Design/methodology/approach This study investigates differences in subjective beliefs held by landlords and retail trade tenants on factors that affect rent levels during the rent negotiation process using a factor analysis approach. Semi-structured interviews were made with seven large real estate owners/landlords and retailers and eight experts in negotiating retail rent to elicit variables that have an impact on retail rent. Thereafter, a web-based survey was sent to 421 respondents who had experience in rent negotiation. Several factors were extracted using factor analysis. The data collection was made in Sweden during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in late spring 2021Findings Significant differences are found in beliefs held by landlords and retail trade tenants in four out of seven-factor: regional growth, e-commerce, customer focus and trust. Landlords rate these factors higher than retailers do. There are also systematic differences between landlords and retailers depending on their education levels on the following factors: rent and vacancies, e-commerce and customer focus. The number of years of experience did not prove to be significant instead differences are found to exist in factorsResearch limitations/implications Not only do traditional factors of importance, such as lease structure, the effect of location, size and anchor or non-anchor tenants, have an effect on negotiated rent levels. Differences in other factors also exist, such as regional growth, e-commerce, customer focus and trust factors that may play an important role in the negation of retail rent.Practical implications The findings provide new insights into the different views on factors that affect rent negotiations between landlords and retail tenants. Knowledge of such differences may increase the overall transparency in the negotiation process. Transparency may be increased by putting forward information on these factors before a negotiation takes place, in order to smooth differences in their beliefs.Social implications If transparency in the negotiation process of retail rent increases, time to reach an agreement, stress and anxiety can be reduced by putting forward information on factors where differences exist between landlords and retailersOriginality/value New insights on retail rent negotiation have been put forward in this research paper. Not only do traditional factors such as lease structure matters, but subjective beliefs on factors such as regional growth and the level of education are also important, as this study has shown using a factors analysis approach.
目的是通过调查物业业主和零售商在他们认为租金谈判中重要因素的信念差异来增加对租金谈判的了解。设计/方法/方法本研究采用因素分析方法,调查房东和零售业租户在租金谈判过程中对影响租金水平的因素所持的主观信念的差异。我们对7位大型房地产业主/房东和零售商以及8位零售租金谈判专家进行了半结构化访谈,以得出影响零售租金的变量。之后,一份基于网络的调查被发送给421名有过租金谈判经验的受访者。利用因子分析提取了几个影响因子。调查结果发现,在7个因素中的4个方面,房东和零售贸易租户的信念存在显著差异:区域增长、电子商务、客户关注和信任。房东对这些因素的评价高于零售商。根据受教育程度不同,房东和零售商在以下因素上也存在系统性差异:租金和空置率、电子商务和客户关注。经验的年数并没有被证明是显著的,相反,在因素中发现了差异。研究的局限性/启示不仅传统的重要因素,如租赁结构、地点的影响、规模和锚定或非锚定租户,对协商租金水平有影响。其他因素的差异也存在,如区域增长、电子商务、客户关注和信任因素,这些因素可能在零售租金的负面影响中发挥重要作用。研究结果对影响业主和零售租户租金谈判因素的不同观点提供了新的见解。了解这些差异可能会增加谈判进程的总体透明度。在进行谈判之前提出关于这些因素的资料,可以增加透明度,以消除他们在信念上的分歧。如果提高零售租金谈判过程的透明度,通过提供房东和零售商之间存在差异的因素的信息,可以减少达成协议的时间,压力和焦虑。正如本研究使用因素分析方法所显示的那样,不仅租赁结构等传统因素很重要,对区域增长和教育水平等因素的主观信念也很重要。
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引用次数: 0
Quantifying the drivers of residential housing demand – an interpretable machine learning approach 量化住宅需求的驱动因素——一种可解释的机器学习方法
IF 1.3 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-07-17 DOI: 10.1108/jerer-02-2023-0008
Marcelo Cajias, Joseph-Alexander Zeitler
PurposeThe paper employs a unique online user-generated housing search dataset and introduces a novel measure for housing demand, namely “contacts per listing” as explained by hedonic, geographic and socioeconomic variables. Design/methodology/approachThe authors explore housing demand by employing an extensive Internet search dataset from a German housing market platform. The authors apply state-of-the-art artificial intelligence, the eXtreme Gradient Boosting, to quantify factors that lead an apartment to be in demand.FindingsThe authors compare the results to alternative parametric models and find evidence of the superiority of the nonparametric model. The authors use eXplainable artificial intelligence (XAI) techniques to show economic meanings and inferences of the results. The results suggest that hedonic, socioeconomic and spatial aspects influence search intensity. The authors further find differences in temporal dynamics and geographical variations.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors’ knowledge, it is the first study of its kind. The statistical model of housing search draws on insights from decision theory, AI and qualitative studies on housing search. The econometric approach employed is new as it considers standard regression models and an eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB or XGBoost) approach followed by a model-agnostic interpretation of the underlying effects.
本文采用了一个独特的在线用户生成的住房搜索数据集,并引入了一种新的住房需求测量方法,即由享乐、地理和社会经济变量解释的“每套房源的联系人”。设计/方法/方法作者通过使用来自德国住房市场平台的广泛的互联网搜索数据集来探索住房需求。作者运用了最先进的人工智能技术“极限梯度提升”(eXtreme Gradient Boosting)来量化导致公寓供不应求的因素。作者将结果与其他参数模型进行了比较,并找到了非参数模型优越性的证据。作者使用可解释的人工智能(XAI)技术来显示结果的经济意义和推论。结果表明,搜索强度受享乐、社会经济和空间因素的影响。作者进一步发现了时间动态和地理变化的差异。原创性/价值据作者所知,这是同类研究中的首例。住房搜索的统计模型借鉴了决策理论、人工智能和住房搜索的定性研究的见解。所采用的计量经济学方法是新的,因为它考虑了标准回归模型和极端梯度增强(XGB或XGBoost)方法,然后是对潜在效应的模型不可知的解释。
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引用次数: 0
Recycling English town centres – from retail to healthcare: surveys, views and next steps 回收英国城镇中心-从零售到医疗保健:调查,观点和下一步
IF 1.3 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-07-11 DOI: 10.1108/jerer-01-2023-0002
G. Wiejak-Roy, Gavin Hunter
PurposeMany town centres in England exhibit high retail property vacancies and require regeneration. Several alternatives for the replacement of town centre retail (TCR) have been suggested, one of which is healthcare. The healthcare sector in England is in distress, with the National Health Service (NHS) tackling extensive patient waiting lists, whilst operating from an ageing estate. This paper is an introductory study that uses seven carefully selected personalised surveys to raise academic awareness of the importance and potential of integrating healthcare into town centres and calls for large-scale research to establish the statistical validity of the reported observations.Design/methodology/approachThis study is developed from an interpretative standpoint. Through semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders specific to retail-to-healthcare conversions, this study reports stakeholders' perspectives on opportunities and limitations for such conversions to give direction for large statistical research in the future.FindingsAll participants support the integration of healthcare into town centres and agreed that diagnostic services, mental health support and primary care services are appropriate for provision within town centres. The participants advocate large-scale change in town centres in England, with integrated healthcare co-located with complementary services to fit with wider regeneration plans. Participants prefer adaptation of existing buildings where technically feasible and emphasise the importance of obtaining the buy-in of other stakeholders whilst expressing concerns about the uncertainty of capital funding availability.Originality/valueThis is the first study to analyse the practice of retail-to-healthcare conversions in town centres. These are still rare in England and projects are complex. The market experience is limited, and thus, the literature is scarce. This study fills this void and provides a starting point for future quantitative research in this area and informs the new town-planning policies.
目的:英格兰许多城镇中心的零售物业空置率很高,需要重建。已经提出了替代市中心零售(TCR)的几种替代方案,其中之一是医疗保健。英国的医疗保健部门陷入困境,国家医疗服务体系(NHS)处理大量的病人等候名单,同时从一个老龄化的庄园运营。这篇论文是一个介绍性的研究,使用七个精心挑选的个性化调查,以提高学术意识的重要性和潜力整合医疗保健到城镇中心,并呼吁大规模的研究,以建立统计有效性的报告观察。设计/方法/方法本研究是从解释性的观点出发的。通过对零售到医疗保健转换的关键利益相关者的半结构化访谈,本研究报告了利益相关者对这种转换的机会和限制的看法,为未来的大型统计研究提供方向。所有与会者都支持将保健纳入城镇中心,并同意诊断服务、心理健康支助和初级保健服务适合在城镇中心内提供。参与者主张在英格兰的城镇中心进行大规模的改变,将综合医疗保健与补充服务放在一起,以适应更广泛的再生计划。参与者更倾向于在技术上可行的情况下对现有建筑进行改造,并强调获得其他利益相关者支持的重要性,同时表达了对资本可用性不确定性的担忧。原创性/价值这是首个分析城镇中心从零售到医疗转型实践的研究。这种情况在英国仍然很少见,而且项目也很复杂。市场经验有限,因此相关文献较少。本研究填补了这一空白,为未来该领域的定量研究提供了一个起点,并为新的城市规划政策提供了信息。
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引用次数: 0
Leveraging supplementary modalities in automated real estate valuation using comparative judgments and deep learning 利用比较判断和深度学习在自动房地产估值中的补充模式
IF 1.3 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-07-11 DOI: 10.1108/jerer-11-2022-0036
Miroslav Despotovic, David Koch, Eric Stumpe, Wolfgang A. Brunauer, M. Zeppelzauer
PurposeIn this study the authors aim to outline new ways of information extraction for automated valuation models, which in turn would help to increase transparency in valuation procedures and thus contribute to more reliable statements about the value of real estate.Design/methodology/approachThe authors hypothesize that empirical error in the interpretation and qualitative assessment of visual content can be minimized by collating the assessments of multiple individuals and through use of repeated trials. Motivated by this problem, the authors developed an experimental approach for semi-automatic extraction of qualitative real estate metadata based on Comparative Judgments and Deep Learning. The authors evaluate the feasibility of our approach with the help of Hedonic Models.FindingsThe results show that the collated assessments of qualitative features of interior images show a notable effect on the price models and thus over potential for further research within this paradigm.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first approach that combines and collates the subjective ratings of visual features and deep learning for real estate use cases.
在本研究中,作者旨在概述自动估值模型的信息提取新方法,这反过来将有助于提高估值程序的透明度,从而有助于更可靠地陈述房地产价值。设计/方法学/方法作者假设,在视觉内容的解释和定性评估经验误差可以通过整理多个个体的评估和通过使用重复试验最小化。受此问题的启发,作者开发了一种基于比较判断和深度学习的定性房地产元数据半自动提取的实验方法。作者借助享乐模型评估了我们方法的可行性。结果表明,对室内图像定性特征的整理评估对价格模型有显著影响,因此在此范式内进一步研究的潜力很大。原创性/价值据作者所知,这是第一个结合并整理视觉特征主观评级和房地产用例深度学习的方法。
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引用次数: 0
House price bubble detection in Ukraine 乌克兰房价泡沫检测
Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-05-26 DOI: 10.1108/jerer-10-2022-0031
Alona Shmygel, Martin Hoesli
Purpose The purpose of this paper is to present a framework for the assessment of the fundamental value of house prices in the largest Ukrainian cities, as well as to identify the thresholds, the breach of which would signal a bubble. Design/methodology/approach House price bubbles are detected using two approaches: ratios and regression analysis. Two variants of each method are considered. The authors calculate the price-to-rent and price-to-income ratios that can identify a possible overvaluation or undervaluation of house prices. Then, the authors perform regression analyses by considering individual multi-factor models for each city and by using a within regression model with one-way (individual) effects on panel data. Findings The only pronounced and prolonged period of a house price bubble is the one that coincides with the Global Financial Crisis. The bubble signals produced by these methods are, on average, simultaneous and in accordance with economic sense. Research limitations/implications The framework described in this paper can serve as a model for the implementation of a tool for detecting house price bubbles in other countries with emerging, small and open economies, due to adjustments for high inflation and significant dependence on reserve currencies that it incorporates. Practical implications A tool for measuring fundamental house prices and a bubble indicator for housing markets will be used to monitor the systemic risks stemming from the real estate market. Thus, it will help the National Bank of Ukraine maintain financial stability. Social implications The framework presented in this research will contribute to the enhancement of the systemic risk analysis toolkit of the National Bank of Ukraine. Therefore, it will help to prevent or mitigate risks that might originate in the real estate market. Originality/value The authors show how to implement an instrument for detecting house price bubbles in Ukraine. This will become important in the context of the after-war reconstruction of Ukraine, with mortgages potentially becoming the main tool for the financing of the rebuilding/renovation of the residential real estate stock.
本文的目的是为评估乌克兰最大城市房价的基本价值提供一个框架,并确定阈值,违反该阈值将标志着泡沫。设计/方法/方法房价泡沫检测使用两种方法:比率和回归分析。考虑了每种方法的两种变体。作者计算了房价租金比和房价收入比,可以确定房价可能被高估或低估。然后,作者通过考虑每个城市的单个多因素模型和使用单向(个体)影响面板数据的内部回归模型进行回归分析。唯一明显且持续时间长的房价泡沫时期是与全球金融危机同时出现的时期。平均而言,这些方法产生的泡沫信号是同步的,并且符合经济意义。本文中描述的框架可以作为一个模型,用于在其他新兴、小型和开放的经济体中检测房价泡沫的工具的实施,因为它包含了对高通货膨胀和对储备货币的严重依赖的调整。房地产市场的系统性风险将被用于监测房地产市场的系统性风险,并将使用衡量基本房价的工具和房地产市场泡沫指标。因此,它将帮助乌克兰国家银行(National Bank of Ukraine)维持金融稳定。本研究提出的框架将有助于增强乌克兰国家银行的系统性风险分析工具包。因此,这将有助于防止或减轻房地产市场可能产生的风险。原创性/价值作者展示了如何实现一种检测乌克兰房价泡沫的工具。在乌克兰战后重建的背景下,这将变得非常重要,抵押贷款可能成为住宅房地产存量重建/翻新融资的主要工具。
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引用次数: 1
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Journal of European Real Estate Research
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