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Does Population Aging Hinder the Accumulation of Human Capital? Evidence from China 人口老龄化阻碍了人力资本的积累吗?来自中国的证据
IF 0.8 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-07-10 DOI: 10.3868/S060-011-020-0012-3
Y. Liu, Xi Qu, Wei Wang, Xiao Chang
There is no consensus on the impact of population aging on education investment. To explore this question, we first build an overlapping generations (OLG) model to theoretically analyze the effect of population aging on human capital investment in China, and then test our theory by conducting an empirical study based on micro household data. We find the following. (1) Theoretically, the OLG model shows that population aging has a crowding-out effect on education investment. (2) Empirically, the results show that the share of education and training expenditures decreases by 5.27 percentage points as the ratio of old people in the household increases by 100 percentage points, which confirms the crowding-out effect of population aging on human capital investment. (3) The crowding-out effect is far more intense on urban households than on rural households since health care expenditures will be greater in urban areas as population aging increases. (4) A quantile regression indicates that the negative effect of population aging on the share of educational expenditure is concentrated in households with higher shares of education expenditures. We confirm the robustness of our results using regional fixed effect and instrumental variable (IV) regressions.
关于人口老龄化对教育投资的影响,目前还没有达成共识。为了探讨这个问题,我们首先建立了一个重叠世代模型,从理论上分析了人口老龄化对中国人力资本投资的影响,然后通过基于微观家庭数据的实证研究来检验我们的理论。我们发现以下内容。(1) 从理论上讲,OLG模型表明人口老龄化对教育投资具有挤出效应。(2) 实证结果表明,随着家庭中老年人比例的增加,教育和培训支出的份额下降了5.27个百分点,这证实了人口老龄化对人力资本投资的挤出效应。(3) 城市家庭的挤出效应远比农村家庭强烈,因为随着人口老龄化的加剧,城市地区的医疗保健支出将更大。(4) 分位数回归表明,人口老龄化对教育支出份额的负面影响集中在教育支出份额较高的家庭。我们使用区域固定效应和工具变量(IV)回归来证实我们的结果的稳健性。
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引用次数: 1
A Bayesian Nonparametric Investigation of the Predictive Effect of Exchange Rates on Commodity Prices 汇率对商品价格预测效应的贝叶斯非参数研究
IF 0.8 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-07-10 DOI: 10.3868/S060-011-020-0009-5
Xin Jin
This study proposes a full Bayesian nonparametric procedure to investigate the predictive power of exchange rates in relation to commodity prices for three commodity-exporting countries: Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. We propose a new time-dependent infinite mixture of a normal linear regression model of the conditional distribution of the commodity price index. The mixing weights follow a set of Probit stick-breaking priors that are time-varying. We find that exchange rates have a positive predictive effect in general, but accounting for time variation does not improve forecasting performance. By contrast, the intercept in the regression and the lagged dependent variable show signs of parameter change over time in most cases, which is important in forecasting both the mean and the density of commodity prices one period ahead. The results also suggest that the variance is a large source of the time variation in the conditional distribution of commodity prices.
本研究提出了一个完整的贝叶斯非参数程序来调查三个商品出口国(加拿大、澳大利亚和新西兰)的汇率对商品价格的预测能力。我们提出了一个新的含时无限混合商品价格指数条件分布的正态线性回归模型。混合权重遵循一组随时间变化的Probit棒打破先验。我们发现,总体而言,汇率具有积极的预测效果,但考虑时间变化并不能提高预测性能。相比之下,在大多数情况下,回归中的截距和滞后因变量显示出参数随时间变化的迹象,这对于预测未来一个时期商品价格的平均值和密度都很重要。结果还表明,方差是商品价格条件分布中时间变化的一个重要来源。
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引用次数: 0
The Relationship between Interest Rates and Inflation: Examining the Fisher Effect in China 利率与通货膨胀的关系:中国的费雪效应检验
IF 0.8 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-07-10 DOI: 10.3868/S060-011-020-0011-6
S. Ongan, Ismet Gocer
This study revisits the Fisher effect using a different empirical method that considers a potential nonlinear relationship between interest rates (treasury bond rates) and inflation in China. The rising uncertainty and asymmetric information in financial markets between bond holders and bond issuers suggest such a potential nonlinear relationship. To this aim, we apply Shin et al.’s (2014) nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model with asymmetric dynamic multipliers for the sample period 2002M7–2018M4. The empirical findings reveal symmetric and asymmetric partial Fisher effects for all sample bond rates in China. Furthermore, we find that 20-year bond rates experience the lowest partial Fisher effect.
本研究使用一种不同的经验方法重新审视了费雪效应,该方法考虑了中国利率(国库券利率)与通货膨胀之间潜在的非线性关系。金融市场中债券持有人和债券发行者之间不断上升的不确定性和信息不对称表明了这种潜在的非线性关系。为此,我们采用Shin等人(2014)的具有不对称动态乘数的非线性自回归分布滞后(NARDL)模型,用于样本周期为2002M7-2018M4。实证结果显示,中国所有样本债券利率都存在对称和不对称的部分费雪效应。此外,我们发现20年期债券利率经历最低的部分费雪效应。
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引用次数: 1
The Effect of the Interaction between Price and Time Preference on Cigarette Consumption among Pregnant Women 价格与时间偏好交互作用对孕妇吸烟消费的影响
IF 0.8 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-07-10 DOI: 10.3868/S060-011-020-0010-9
Yan Song
In this study, I explore smoking behavior among pregnant U.S. women using the 1979 cohort of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. The key aspect of this study is the availability of smoking participation data before and during pregnancy. I consider the probabilities of smoking cessation while pregnant as the outcome. I find that pregnant women who smoke are less responsive to price changes when they are more future-oriented. Women who are more present-oriented are more likely to smoke and consume more cigarettes given that they smoke more than those who are future-oriented. Moreover, those who discount the future more heavily are more sensitive to the money price of cigarettes than those who are more future-oriented. I focus on the role of time preference and the interaction between time preference and price in determining these outcomes.
在这项研究中,我使用1979年全国青年纵向调查的队列研究了美国孕妇的吸烟行为。这项研究的关键方面是怀孕前和怀孕期间吸烟参与数据的可用性。我认为怀孕期间戒烟的可能性是结果。我发现,吸烟的孕妇在更注重未来的时候,对价格变化的反应更少。更注重当下的女性更有可能吸烟和消费更多的香烟,因为她们比那些注重未来的女性吸烟更多。此外,与那些更注重未来的人相比,那些更重视未来的人对香烟的价格更敏感。我专注于时间偏好的作用,以及时间偏好和价格之间的相互作用,以决定这些结果。
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引用次数: 0
A Global-Optimal Portfolio Theory beyond the R-s Model R-s模型之外的全局最优投资组合理论
IF 0.8 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-04-18 DOI: 10.3868/S060-011-020-0006-4
Yifan Liu, Shidong Liang
Deviations from the efficient market hypothesis allow us to benefit from risk premium in ?nancial markets. We propose a three-pronged (R, s, H) theory to generalize the (R, s) model and present the formulation of a three-pronged (R, s, H) model and its Pareto-optimal solution. We de?ne the local-optimal weights (wR, ws,wH) that construct the triangle of the quasi-optimal investing subspace and further de?ne the centroid or incenter of the triangle as the optimal investing weights that optimize the mean return, risk premium, and volatility risk. By numerically investigating the Chinese stock market, we demonstrate the validity of this formulation method. The proposed theory provides investors of different styles (conservative or aggressive) an efficient way to design portfolios in ?nancial markets to maximize the mean return while minimizing the volatility risk.
偏离有效市场假设使我们能够从中受益于风险溢价?金融市场。我们提出了一个三管齐下(R,s,H)理论来推广(R,s)模型,并给出了一个三管齐下(R,s,H)模型的公式及其Pareto最优解。我们?构造拟最优投资子空间的三角形的局部最优权(wR,ws,wH),并进一步定义?ne三角形的质心或燃烧点作为优化平均收益、风险溢价和波动性风险的最佳投资权重。通过对中国股票市场的数值研究,验证了该公式方法的有效性。所提出的理论为不同风格(保守派或激进派)的投资者提供了一种有效的投资组合设计方法?金融市场以最大化平均回报,同时最小化波动风险。
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引用次数: 0
Promote Competitive Neutrality to Facilitate China’s Economic Development: Outlook, Policy Simulations, and Reform Implementation—A Summary of the Annual SUFE Macroeconomic Report (2019–2020) 促进竞争中性促进中国经济发展:前景、政策模拟和改革实施——上海财经大学年度宏观经济报告(2019-2020)综述
IF 0.8 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-04-18 DOI: 10.3868/S060-011-020-0001-9
K. Huang, Zixi Liu, Guoqiang Tian
Twenty nineteen (2019) marked another year of lethargic growth in the Chinese economy amidst escalated internal and external complexities. Internally, the country’s macroeconomic landscape was overcast continuously by fallen consumption growth, plunged growth in manufacturing investment, rapid accumulation of household debt, risen income inequality, and the overhang of local government debt. The nation’s external conditions did not fare any better, with drastically declined growth in imports and exports, continued trade tensions with the US, and weakened external demand. Based on the IAR-CMM model, which takes account of both cyclical and secular factors, the baseline real GDP growth rate is projected to be 6.0% in 2020 (5.9% using more reliable rather than the official data), with a downside risk. Alternative scenario analyses and policy simulations are conducted, in addition to the benchmark forecast, to reflect the influences of various internal and external uncertainties. The findings emanated from these analyses lead us to stress the importance and urgency of deepening reform to achieve competitive neutrality for China’s transformation into a phase with sustainable and high-quality development.
2019年是中国经济在内部和外部复杂性升级的情况下又一个缓慢增长的一年。从内部来看,该国的宏观经济形势持续低迷,原因是消费增长下降、制造业投资增长放缓、家庭债务快速积累、收入不平等加剧以及地方政府债务积压。该国的外部条件并没有好转,进出口增长大幅下降,与美国的贸易紧张局势持续,外部需求减弱。根据IAR-CMM模型,该模型同时考虑了周期性和长期性因素,预计2020年基准实际GDP增长率为6.0%(使用比官方数据更可靠的数据为5.9%),存在下行风险。除了基准预测外,还进行了替代情景分析和政策模拟,以反映各种内部和外部不确定性的影响。这些分析的结果使我们强调了深化改革以实现竞争中性对中国转变为可持续高质量发展阶段的重要性和紧迫性。
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引用次数: 9
Interest Rate Volatility Regimes in Selected Asian Countries: A Univariate Markov Switching Analysis 亚洲国家的利率波动机制:单变量马尔可夫转换分析
IF 0.8 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-04-18 DOI: 10.3868/S060-011-020-0003-3
D. Ozdemir
Business cycle dynamics are determined by relatively large volatilities in output, consumption, and investment, which leads to cyclical fluctuations in interest rates. Using the Markov switching model, we model the nominal interest rate movements to explain the volatility regime shifts in a set of selected emerging Asian economies. The estimated results provide significant evidence of regime-dependent means, variances, and probabilities in both stable and volatile regimes in selected countries, confirming the existence of two distinct regimes in nominal interest rate movements. In addition, the smoothed probability results of switching autoregressive model show that the model is capable of capturing the two regimes for the corresponding nominal interest rate behaviors. Besides, the results reveal that the stables regimes have higher durations than the volatile regimes. This study also shows the advantage of Markov switching models over conventional regression models, allowing the identification of different regimes for the cyclical behavior of interest rates.
经济周期动态是由产出、消费和投资的较大波动决定的,这导致利率的周期性波动。利用马尔可夫转换模型,我们对名义利率变动进行建模,以解释一组选定的亚洲新兴经济体的波动机制变化。估计结果提供了重要的证据,表明在选定的国家中,稳定和不稳定的制度都依赖于制度的均值、方差和概率,证实了名义利率变动中存在两种不同的制度。此外,切换自回归模型的平滑概率结果表明,该模型能够捕获对应名义利率行为的两种制度。此外,结果表明,稳定状态比波动状态具有更高的持续时间。本研究还显示了马尔可夫转换模型相对于传统回归模型的优势,允许识别利率周期性行为的不同制度。
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引用次数: 1
How Firms' Ownership Structure Impacts Online Peer-to-Peer Lending Performance in China 企业所有权结构对中国网络对等借贷绩效的影响
IF 0.8 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-04-18 DOI: 10.3868/S060-011-020-0004-0
G. Xie
A dramatic surge in online peer-to-peer (P2P) lending emerged in China, where (under conditions of credit deficiency) it took only three years for the size of the P2P lending market in China to reach four times that of the United States and ten times that of the United Kingdom. The literature indicates that ownership structure is an important factor that influences P2P lending firms’ performance, while research on the underlying mechanisms remain insufficient. This study analyzes the data of P2P lending companies between June 2016 and March 2017. The results demonstrate that although ownership structure has minimal direct effect on the turnover volume and number of lenders and borrowers, it moderates the effects of firm age, interest rate, and loan term on firm performance. These results enrich the property theory and shed light on how P2P lending firms with different ownership structures could succeed when there is institutional deficiency.
中国出现了P2P借贷的急剧增长,在信贷不足的情况下,中国P2P借贷市场的规模仅用了三年时间就达到了美国的四倍和英国的十倍。文献表明,股权结构是影响P2P借贷公司绩效的重要因素,但对其潜在机制的研究还不够。本研究分析了2016年6月至2017年3月期间P2P借贷公司的数据。研究结果表明,尽管所有权结构对贷款人和借款人的营业额和数量的直接影响很小,但它调节了公司年龄、利率和贷款期限对公司业绩的影响。这些结果丰富了产权理论,并揭示了在存在制度缺陷的情况下,不同所有权结构的P2P贷款公司如何取得成功。
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引用次数: 2
The Transition of Thoughts on Grain Control in the Qing Dynasty: A Survey of the Great Debate on the Ever-Normal Granary and Grain Prices in 1748 清代粮食调控思想的转变——1748年常仓与粮价大论战述评
IF 0.8 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-04-18 DOI: 10.3868/S060-011-020-0002-6
F. Wang, Ho-don Yan, Duo Zhang
The ever-normal granary system was an official granary management system in ancient China. Throughout its existence, the system functioned as a major means of adjusting the price of grain and provided disaster relief. Few studies on the system touches upon the relationship between grain price fluctuation and the development of the grain market, or the ever-normal granary system and its related economic school of thoughts. Starting with the development of the grain market and the relationship between the price of grain and grain reserves, and through a systematic review of the debate on the ever-normal granary system and grain prices among high-level officials of the Qing government in the 13th year of Emperor Qianlong’s reign (1748), this paper analyzes the historical process and reasons for the change in thoughts on the ever-normal granary system and discusses the historical path of how economic phenomenon gave rise to the clash of economic thoughts that influenced the evolution of this economic institution.
常仓制是中国古代官方的粮仓管理制度。在其存在的整个过程中,该系统一直是调整粮食价格和提供救灾的主要手段。关于这一制度的研究很少涉及粮食价格波动与粮食市场发展之间的关系,也很少涉及一直正常的粮仓制度及其相关的经济学派。从粮食市场的发展和粮食价格与粮食储备的关系入手,通过系统回顾乾隆十三年(1748年)清政府高层官员关于常仓制度和粮食价格的争论,本文分析了中国传统粮仓制度思想转变的历史过程和原因,探讨了经济现象如何引发经济思想冲突,进而影响这一经济制度演变的历史路径。
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引用次数: 0
Firm-Level TFP Growth in the Chinese Automobile Industry 中国汽车工业企业层面的全要素生产率增长
IF 0.8 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-04-18 DOI: 10.3868/S060-011-020-0005-7
Xiaoheng Zhang, X. Tian
China has been the world's largest automobile producer since 2009, but it still lags behind other countries in terms of productivity. Based on the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBSC) firm-level data and the improved approach proposed by Ackerberg et al. (2015), this paper investigates the contribution of total factor productivity (TFP) growth to the Chinese automobile industry and evaluates the impact of firm entry and exit on TFP growth. The empirical results show that the TFP of the Chinese automobile industry grows at 10.7% per year. Joint venture and foreign-owned firms have a significantly higher TFP growth rate than others. Large-scale firms have a higher TFP growth rate than do small-scale firms, but the latter have caught up after 2004. Moreover, the entry of new firms and exit of old firms significantly improve the aggregate TFP growth rate.
自2009年以来,中国一直是世界上最大的汽车生产国,但在生产力方面仍落后于其他国家。基于中国国家统计局(NBSC)企业层面的数据和Ackerberg等人(2015)提出的改进方法,本文研究了全要素生产率(TFP)增长对中国汽车行业的贡献,并评估了企业进入和退出对TFP增长的影响。实证结果表明,中国汽车工业全要素生产率以每年10.7%的速度增长。合资企业和外资企业的TFP增长率明显高于其他企业。大型企业的TFP增长率高于小型企业,但后者在2004年后赶上了。此外,新企业的进入和旧企业的退出显著提高了总TFP的增长率。
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引用次数: 4
期刊
Frontiers of Economics in China
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