Future Business Journal最新文献

In 2020, the world experienced several significant events, including the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and the collapse of international crude oil prices. The rapid spread of this pandemic has dramatic impacts on financial markets all over the world, thereby increasing market risk aversion in an unprecedented way since the subprime financial crisis. The decline in stock markets implied volatilities of equity and oil prices, thereby heightening turmoil in global financial markets despite comprehensive and substantial financial reforms. To this end, we investigated the likely effects of this pandemic on the Saudi stock market while controlling for oil prices based on daily data for a period from 1/1/2020 to 19/9/2022. To ascertain the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between the variables, we applied autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) modeling and the error correction model, with this ultimately revealing the existence of strong cointegration in the long run. The ARDL bounds test was found to be robust by combined cointegration tests, thus providing further evidence of a strong relationship in the long run. Granger causality tests also yielded evidence of causality between the variables in both directions. The total COVID-19 confirmed cases and oil prices also caused movements in stock returns in the short run. Our findings have some prominent implications for asset managers and policymakers to improve stock market efficiency and boost global economic activity. Saudi authorities can consequently remove the regulatory and legal obstacles to develop their stock market and better improve the risk management, which will allow to make quick decisions in response to any oil price volatilities. Policymakers should also adopt proactive strategies that can comfort stock investors’ anxieties over the increasing oil price volatilities. Finally, the findings should be treated with some cautions because of the limited sample size and the tests’ statistical inference. Nevertheless, they do open opportunities for further studies to look in more detail at how the COVID-19 pandemic affected, over the short and long run, monetary and fiscal policy coordination, financial stability, and various other macroeconomic indicators in Saudi Arabia.

This study examines whether the type of financial structure in the GCC influences the relationship between liquidity risk and banks’ performance from 2007 to 2021. By employing fixed effects and fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS), we find that the impact of liquidity risk on bank profitability differs among bank-based and market-based systems. Specifically, the results show that the profitability of banks operating in bank-based countries is positively influenced by the liquidity risk compared to their counterparts. The study also demonstrates that the global financial crisis increases banks’ profitability in the bank-based financial system. Furthermore, the results show that gross domestic product growth (GDPG) determines banks’ financial profitability in the banks-based market. This study offers some important implications for policymakers to consider the type of financial system to stimulate bank stability.

This study examines the determinants of bank profitability using a quantile regression approach, offering insights into factors affecting banks across different percentiles of profitability. Utilizing a comprehensive database from Orbis covering 1200 top-market institutions across 101 countries, the research uniquely employs dynamic panel quantile regression while addressing sample survival bias. Our findings highlight that bank size and capital adequacy negatively impact profitability, whereas market value exerts a positive influence on higher profitability banks. Credit risk affects profitability differently across levels of profitability, and inflation rate shows significance only for higher profitability banks. The study contributes to the existing literature by offering valuable insights into the factors determining bank profitability and how they behave at different percentiles in the sample, suggesting the importance of bank efficiency and competition in promoting economic growth.

Our study verified the implications of the spillover of geopolitical risk (GPR) shocks to the economic crisis in Ghana. Our analysis employed the VAR-based spillover models by Diebold and Yilmaz (Int J Forecast 28:57–66, 2012; J Econ 182:119–134, 2014) and the Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive (TVP-VAR) connectedness approach by Gabauer and Antonakakis (Munich personal RePEc archive refined measures of dynamic connectedness based on TVP-VAR refined measures of dynamic connectedness based on TVP-VAR*, 2017). We scrutinized the interconnections and transmission mechanisms among key macro-financial variables spanning from 2000 to 2022. Our findings indicate that GPR is a fundamental source of shocks to the foreign exchange reserve (FXI), real exchange rate (REER), consumer price index (CPI), and debt. Other significant contributors include export (EXP) and import (IMP), with EXP standing out as the main shock transmitter. On the receiving end, CPI is most impacted by transmissions from IMP and GPR. Our study demonstrates that EXP and IMP are the top shock contributors, while FXI and CPI are the major recipients of these shocks. Such findings provide policymakers with valuable insights into the ramifications of geopolitical risk on the macroeconomic environment. Hence, policymakers are expected to provide necessary buffers to curb the influence of geopolitical risks on the economy.