Pub Date : 2021-10-02DOI: 10.1080/1226508X.2021.2004906
Fan Shi, Leyi Chen
ABSTRACT This study constructs a dynamic heterogeneity threshold model using unbalanced panel data from 146 countries/regions (1984–2017). The findings show that (1) financial risk has a non-linear effect on business cycle fluctuations and a significant global financial risk threshold effect; (2) the threshold of financial risk is significantly lower in emerging market economies than in developed and latecomer market economies; (3) in the long-run, regardless of the threshold effect, once financial risk expands, it will exacerbate business cycle fluctuations; and (4) the threshold effect of different potential financial risks on business cycle fluctuations is heterogeneous.
{"title":"Global Financial Risk Thresholds and Business Cycle Fluctuations: A Dynamic Heterogeneity Model Approach","authors":"Fan Shi, Leyi Chen","doi":"10.1080/1226508X.2021.2004906","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1226508X.2021.2004906","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This study constructs a dynamic heterogeneity threshold model using unbalanced panel data from 146 countries/regions (1984–2017). The findings show that (1) financial risk has a non-linear effect on business cycle fluctuations and a significant global financial risk threshold effect; (2) the threshold of financial risk is significantly lower in emerging market economies than in developed and latecomer market economies; (3) in the long-run, regardless of the threshold effect, once financial risk expands, it will exacerbate business cycle fluctuations; and (4) the threshold effect of different potential financial risks on business cycle fluctuations is heterogeneous.","PeriodicalId":45235,"journal":{"name":"Global Economic Review","volume":"20 1","pages":"382 - 407"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2021-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86718292","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-10-02DOI: 10.1080/1226508X.2021.2004907
Myung Hyun Park, Joseph H. T. Kim
ABSTRACT In healthcare economics count datasets often exhibit excessive zeros or right-skewed tails. When covariates are available, such datasets are typically modelled using the zero-inflated (ZI) or finite mixture (FM) regression models. However, neither model performs adequately when the dataset has both excessive zeros and a long tail, which is often the case in practice. In this paper we combine these two models to create a more flexible, versatile class of ZIFM models. With this model we perform a comprehensive analysis on the number of visits to a physician’s office using the US healthcare demand dataset that has been used in numerous healthcare studies in the literature. After comparing to other existing models which have been reported to perform well on this dataset, we find that the ZIFM model substantially outperforms alternative models. In addition, the model offers a new interpretation that is in contrast to previous empirical findings regarding the factors associated with the demand for the physicians, which can shed a fresh light on the healthcare utilisation policies.
{"title":"Modelling Healthcare Demand Count Data with Excessive Zeros and Overdispersion","authors":"Myung Hyun Park, Joseph H. T. Kim","doi":"10.1080/1226508X.2021.2004907","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1226508X.2021.2004907","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT In healthcare economics count datasets often exhibit excessive zeros or right-skewed tails. When covariates are available, such datasets are typically modelled using the zero-inflated (ZI) or finite mixture (FM) regression models. However, neither model performs adequately when the dataset has both excessive zeros and a long tail, which is often the case in practice. In this paper we combine these two models to create a more flexible, versatile class of ZIFM models. With this model we perform a comprehensive analysis on the number of visits to a physician’s office using the US healthcare demand dataset that has been used in numerous healthcare studies in the literature. After comparing to other existing models which have been reported to perform well on this dataset, we find that the ZIFM model substantially outperforms alternative models. In addition, the model offers a new interpretation that is in contrast to previous empirical findings regarding the factors associated with the demand for the physicians, which can shed a fresh light on the healthcare utilisation policies.","PeriodicalId":45235,"journal":{"name":"Global Economic Review","volume":"30 1","pages":"358 - 381"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2021-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76664105","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-08-06DOI: 10.1080/1226508X.2021.2006739
Jin Yeub Kim
ABSTRACT This paper considers social contracts (or mechanisms) in negotiations with incomplete information in which an outside option is a probabilistic conflict and a peaceful agreement is ex ante efficient. I compute the set of interim incentive efficient mechanisms, the ex ante incentive efficient mechanism, as well as the neutral bargaining solution. I numerically illustrate that the focus on the ex ante incentive efficient mechanism as the most reasonable prediction is not robust. This paper justifies the neutral bargaining solution as the unique, robust solution among all interim incentive efficient mechanisms.
{"title":"A Unique and Robust Social Contract: An Application to Negotiations with Probabilistic Conflicts","authors":"Jin Yeub Kim","doi":"10.1080/1226508X.2021.2006739","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1226508X.2021.2006739","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This paper considers social contracts (or mechanisms) in negotiations with incomplete information in which an outside option is a probabilistic conflict and a peaceful agreement is ex ante efficient. I compute the set of interim incentive efficient mechanisms, the ex ante incentive efficient mechanism, as well as the neutral bargaining solution. I numerically illustrate that the focus on the ex ante incentive efficient mechanism as the most reasonable prediction is not robust. This paper justifies the neutral bargaining solution as the unique, robust solution among all interim incentive efficient mechanisms.","PeriodicalId":45235,"journal":{"name":"Global Economic Review","volume":"11 1","pages":"61 - 74"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2021-08-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75236345","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-07-02DOI: 10.1080/1226508X.2021.1947340
Yunqi Fan, Fangzhao Zhou, Yunbi An, Jun Yang
ABSTRACT We study the cross-sectional effects of investor sentiment on stock price crash risk from the perspective of investor behavioural biases. We develop a firm-specific investor sentiment measure, and find that stocks with stronger investor sentiment are more prone to a future price crash. The positive relation is more pronounced for stocks eligible for margin trading, as higher investor sentiment induces greater margin buy/cover by optimistic investors. Short interest moderates the impact of optimistic sentiment on crash risk. The positive relation is also particularly prominent for stocks with a more speculative appeal, especially for those with lower institutional ownership.
{"title":"Investor Sentiment and Stock Price Crash Risk: Evidence from China","authors":"Yunqi Fan, Fangzhao Zhou, Yunbi An, Jun Yang","doi":"10.1080/1226508X.2021.1947340","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1226508X.2021.1947340","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT We study the cross-sectional effects of investor sentiment on stock price crash risk from the perspective of investor behavioural biases. We develop a firm-specific investor sentiment measure, and find that stocks with stronger investor sentiment are more prone to a future price crash. The positive relation is more pronounced for stocks eligible for margin trading, as higher investor sentiment induces greater margin buy/cover by optimistic investors. Short interest moderates the impact of optimistic sentiment on crash risk. The positive relation is also particularly prominent for stocks with a more speculative appeal, especially for those with lower institutional ownership.","PeriodicalId":45235,"journal":{"name":"Global Economic Review","volume":"20 10","pages":"310 - 339"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2021-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/1226508X.2021.1947340","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72471966","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-06-28DOI: 10.1080/1226508X.2021.1947341
Hyelin Choi, Danbee Park
ABSTRACT This study examines the effect of foreign-owned firms’ downsizing on the domestic labour market using Korean firm-level data during 2006–2017. We identify horizontal and vertical effects of foreign firms on the domestic employment within the region and across regions. Empirical results support that foreign firms’ downsizing leads to a decrease in domestic firms’ employment in the same industry. Domestic firms in the upstream industries reduce employment in response to foreign firms’ downsizing. Displaced workers from foreign firms may be transferred to domestic firms in the downstream industries. These results are more pronounced within the region.
{"title":"The Effect of Multinationals’ Downsizing on the Domestic Labour Market","authors":"Hyelin Choi, Danbee Park","doi":"10.1080/1226508X.2021.1947341","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1226508X.2021.1947341","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This study examines the effect of foreign-owned firms’ downsizing on the domestic labour market using Korean firm-level data during 2006–2017. We identify horizontal and vertical effects of foreign firms on the domestic employment within the region and across regions. Empirical results support that foreign firms’ downsizing leads to a decrease in domestic firms’ employment in the same industry. Domestic firms in the upstream industries reduce employment in response to foreign firms’ downsizing. Displaced workers from foreign firms may be transferred to domestic firms in the downstream industries. These results are more pronounced within the region.","PeriodicalId":45235,"journal":{"name":"Global Economic Review","volume":"43 1","pages":"340 - 357"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2021-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85782147","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-04-07DOI: 10.1080/1226508X.2021.1908156
Illoong Kwon, Chan-Young Park
ABSTRACT Using the unique grant level data, this paper shows that government R&D grants to private firms lead to more innovation when independent monitoring (e.g. outside directors) in the grant receiving firms is stronger, but to less innovation when chaebol influence (e.g. affiliated ownership) is stronger. However, the direct effect of independent monitoring on reported innovation is negative, while that of chaebol influence is positive. These results are consistent with the hypotheses that independent monitoring reduces the misuse of grant money; increases the efficiency of managing R&D grants; and reduces the overstatement of grant outcomes, while chaebol influence does the opposite.
{"title":"Corporate Governance and the Efficiency of Government R&D Grants","authors":"Illoong Kwon, Chan-Young Park","doi":"10.1080/1226508X.2021.1908156","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1226508X.2021.1908156","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Using the unique grant level data, this paper shows that government R&D grants to private firms lead to more innovation when independent monitoring (e.g. outside directors) in the grant receiving firms is stronger, but to less innovation when chaebol influence (e.g. affiliated ownership) is stronger. However, the direct effect of independent monitoring on reported innovation is negative, while that of chaebol influence is positive. These results are consistent with the hypotheses that independent monitoring reduces the misuse of grant money; increases the efficiency of managing R&D grants; and reduces the overstatement of grant outcomes, while chaebol influence does the opposite.","PeriodicalId":45235,"journal":{"name":"Global Economic Review","volume":"23 1","pages":"293 - 309"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2021-04-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81432335","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-04-03DOI: 10.1080/1226508X.2020.1867610
Hye Rim Yi, Myungkyu Shim, Hee-Seung Yang
ABSTRACT This paper investigates the effects of automation on job polarisation. Automation has been claimed to be one of the main causes for the job polarisation observed in many countries such as the US since the mid-1980s. Using the US Census data, we show that between 1980 and 2007 the increase in the usage of ICT capital is not statistically associated with changes in the employment and wage bill share of routine workers, although there is heterogeneity across industries. The main findings imply that ICT capital per se might not be the main factor driving job polarisation in the US.
{"title":"Is Job Polarisation ICT-Driven? Evidence from the US","authors":"Hye Rim Yi, Myungkyu Shim, Hee-Seung Yang","doi":"10.1080/1226508X.2020.1867610","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1226508X.2020.1867610","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This paper investigates the effects of automation on job polarisation. Automation has been claimed to be one of the main causes for the job polarisation observed in many countries such as the US since the mid-1980s. Using the US Census data, we show that between 1980 and 2007 the increase in the usage of ICT capital is not statistically associated with changes in the employment and wage bill share of routine workers, although there is heterogeneity across industries. The main findings imply that ICT capital per se might not be the main factor driving job polarisation in the US.","PeriodicalId":45235,"journal":{"name":"Global Economic Review","volume":"1 1","pages":"126 - 138"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2021-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88185637","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-04-03DOI: 10.1080/1226508X.2020.1862693
Heeho Kim, Hongxia Zhang
ABSTRACT This study develops a simple spread model to explain whether market dealers behave strategically when using electronic broking services. Our spread model stresses the role of an unexpected liquidity imbalance and its volatility for inventory risk, which contrasts sharply with previous studies that emphasised price volatility as the inventory risk. To capture a dealer’s strategic behaviour, we introduce a new concept of a strategic weighted spread and test this new spread using the full information maximum likelihood method with the GARCH (1,1) process. Daily spread data from 1 January 2006 to 20 December 2016 is used to explore strategic spreading at the end of a trading day in East Asia. Different effects on strategic spreads of liquidity depth in Asian financial markets are also investigated by comparing strategic spreads between the thin and deep markets. The evidence provides support for our hypothesis that a dealer behaves strategically to avoid the unexpected inventory risk, and that the magnitude of this influence depends on the depth of the financial market.
{"title":"Determination of Strategic Spreads in East Asia","authors":"Heeho Kim, Hongxia Zhang","doi":"10.1080/1226508X.2020.1862693","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1226508X.2020.1862693","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This study develops a simple spread model to explain whether market dealers behave strategically when using electronic broking services. Our spread model stresses the role of an unexpected liquidity imbalance and its volatility for inventory risk, which contrasts sharply with previous studies that emphasised price volatility as the inventory risk. To capture a dealer’s strategic behaviour, we introduce a new concept of a strategic weighted spread and test this new spread using the full information maximum likelihood method with the GARCH (1,1) process. Daily spread data from 1 January 2006 to 20 December 2016 is used to explore strategic spreading at the end of a trading day in East Asia. Different effects on strategic spreads of liquidity depth in Asian financial markets are also investigated by comparing strategic spreads between the thin and deep markets. The evidence provides support for our hypothesis that a dealer behaves strategically to avoid the unexpected inventory risk, and that the magnitude of this influence depends on the depth of the financial market.","PeriodicalId":45235,"journal":{"name":"Global Economic Review","volume":"18 1","pages":"73 - 92"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2021-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81495266","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-02-10DOI: 10.1080/1226508X.2021.1884114
Won-Sik Hwang, Dongnyok Shim
ABSTRACT This study analyses the impact of information and communication technology (ICT)-driven product and process innovation on productivity and economic output growth at the sectoral level in Korea. A traditional growth accounting framework is applied with a quality-adjusted price index on ICT capital and ICT intermediate goods. In the productivity analysis, the impact of ICT-driven process innovation weakens over time in both the manufacturing and service sectors. In the economic output growth analysis, ICT-driven product innovation largely influences the ICT producing manufacturing sector, and national economic growth has benefited from ICT-driven product innovation almost four times as much as from ICT-driven process innovation during 2000–2012.
{"title":"Measuring the Impact of ICT-driven Product and Process Innovation on the Korean Economy","authors":"Won-Sik Hwang, Dongnyok Shim","doi":"10.1080/1226508X.2021.1884114","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1226508X.2021.1884114","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This study analyses the impact of information and communication technology (ICT)-driven product and process innovation on productivity and economic output growth at the sectoral level in Korea. A traditional growth accounting framework is applied with a quality-adjusted price index on ICT capital and ICT intermediate goods. In the productivity analysis, the impact of ICT-driven process innovation weakens over time in both the manufacturing and service sectors. In the economic output growth analysis, ICT-driven product innovation largely influences the ICT producing manufacturing sector, and national economic growth has benefited from ICT-driven product innovation almost four times as much as from ICT-driven process innovation during 2000–2012.","PeriodicalId":45235,"journal":{"name":"Global Economic Review","volume":"22 1","pages":"235 - 253"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2021-02-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86472807","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-02-10DOI: 10.1080/1226508X.2021.1884115
J. Kwak, Heejin Lee, Sukhee Han
ABSTRACT China's emergence in international standardisation has led scholars to debates over its intensifying techno-nationalism. This paper examines ginseng standardization using interviews and archives. Standardisation on the ginseng production started in low-income regions, which later changed into the techno-nationalism agenda over the product origin. Upon international standardisation, the sales volume and unit price in ginseng production increased. Yet the effects occurred in the domestic market and the market leader countries moved to the premium segment by product differentiation. The ginseng standard initiative did not achieve the commercial dominance in the global market but was a local development policy tool.
{"title":"The Role of Standardisation Initiatives in Local Industrial Development: The Chinese Ginseng Experience","authors":"J. Kwak, Heejin Lee, Sukhee Han","doi":"10.1080/1226508X.2021.1884115","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1226508X.2021.1884115","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT China's emergence in international standardisation has led scholars to debates over its intensifying techno-nationalism. This paper examines ginseng standardization using interviews and archives. Standardisation on the ginseng production started in low-income regions, which later changed into the techno-nationalism agenda over the product origin. Upon international standardisation, the sales volume and unit price in ginseng production increased. Yet the effects occurred in the domestic market and the market leader countries moved to the premium segment by product differentiation. The ginseng standard initiative did not achieve the commercial dominance in the global market but was a local development policy tool.","PeriodicalId":45235,"journal":{"name":"Global Economic Review","volume":"31 1","pages":"254 - 272"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2021-02-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86719953","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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