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Variety Is the Spice of Life: Irrational Behavior as Adaptation to Stochastic Environments 多样性是生活的调味品:适应随机环境的非理性行为
IF 0.7 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2018-08-07 DOI: 10.1142/S201013921850009X
T. J. Brennan, A. Lo, Ruixun Zhang
The debate between rational models of behavior and their systematic deviations, often referred to as “irrational behavior”, has attracted an enormous amount of research. Here, we reconcile the debate by proposing an evolutionary explanation for irrational behavior. In the context of a simple binary choice model, we show that irrational behaviors are necessary for evolution in stochastic environments. Furthermore, there is an optimal degree of irrationality in the population depending on the degree of environmental randomness. In this process, mutation provides the important link between rational and irrational behaviors, and hence the variety in evolution. Our results yield widespread implications for financial markets, corporate behavior, and disciplines beyond finance.
理性行为模型与其系统偏差(通常被称为“非理性行为”)之间的争论吸引了大量的研究。在这里,我们通过提出对非理性行为的进化解释来调和争论。在一个简单的二元选择模型的背景下,我们证明了非理性行为是随机环境中进化的必要条件。此外,根据环境随机性的程度,种群中存在一个最优的非理性程度。在这个过程中,突变为理性和非理性行为之间提供了重要的联系,从而形成了进化的多样性。我们的研究结果对金融市场、企业行为和金融以外的学科产生了广泛的影响。
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引用次数: 5
The Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy on Stock Market 货币政策对股票市场的非对称效应
IF 0.7 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2018-08-07 DOI: 10.1142/S2010139218500088
Cheng Jiang
This paper shows that the effects of expansionary monetary policy on the U.S. stock market are asymmetric across different monetary policy phases and different stock market regimes. A Markov-switching dynamic factor model dates the periods of stock market regimes, and generates a new composite measure for overall stock market movements. A time-varying parameter analysis finds that an expansionary monetary policy such as an increase in monetary aggregates or a decrease in the Federal funds rate has positive impacts on stock returns only during the periods in which they are used as monetary policy targets by the Federal Reserve.
本文表明,扩张性货币政策对美国股市的影响在不同的货币政策阶段和不同的股市制度下是不对称的。一个马尔可夫切换动态因子模型确定了股票市场制度的时间,并为整个股票市场运动产生了一个新的综合指标。一项时变参数分析发现,扩张性货币政策,如增加货币总量或降低联邦基金利率,只有在美联储将其作为货币政策目标的时期,才会对股票回报产生积极影响。
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引用次数: 9
Risk Premia in the 8:30 Economy 8:30经济中的风险溢价
IF 0.7 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2018-08-07 DOI: 10.1142/S2010139218500106
Jon Faust, Jonathan H. Wright
Financial asset risk premia are widely agreed to vary over time. This paper decomposes these risk premia into expected excess returns earned in short windows around the times of macroeconomic news announcements (which mostly come out at 8:30am) and the expected excess returns that are earned at other times. Using intradaily data, we find that some, but not all, of the time-varying expected excess returns accrue right around macroeconomic announcements. In forecasting six-month cumulative bond returns, there is more predictability in announcement windows than at other times.
人们普遍认为,金融资产风险溢价会随时间变化。本文将这些风险溢价分解为宏观经济新闻公告(通常在上午8:30发布)前后的短窗口内获得的预期超额回报,以及在其他时间获得的预期超额回报。利用日内数据,我们发现一些(但不是全部)随时间变化的预期超额回报恰好在宏观经济公告发布前后产生。在预测6个月累积债券回报时,公告窗口的可预测性高于其他时间。
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引用次数: 19
Investor Relations Role in Merger and Acquisition Activity 投资者关系在并购活动中的作用
IF 0.7 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2018-04-26 DOI: 10.1142/S2010139218500064
Kate Upton
Managers are increasingly likely to use investor relations (IR) specialists to communicate to their investors during takeover contests. This paper is the first to study the use of external IR firms and their relation to merger and acquisition (M&A) deal characteristics. Targets that employ IR exhibit increased deal premiums, increases in the time to resolution, and a lower likelihood of deal completion, which may be associated with an IR firm’s media campaign and efforts to delay or prevent a deal. Bidders who utilize IR resources have deals that are more likely to be completed, which likely reflects their ability to educate investors.
在收购竞争中,管理者越来越倾向于使用投资者关系(IR)专家与投资者沟通。本文首次研究了外部IR公司的使用及其与并购交易特征的关系。采用IR的目标表现出更高的交易溢价,解决问题的时间增加,交易完成的可能性较低,这可能与IR公司的媒体宣传以及延迟或阻止交易的努力有关。利用IR资源的竞标者更有可能完成交易,这可能反映了他们教育投资者的能力。
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引用次数: 3
The Explanatory Power of Order Imbalance Measures 秩序不平衡测度的解释力
IF 0.7 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2017-12-26 DOI: 10.1142/S2010139218500039
B. H. Johnson, Ethan D. Watson
In modern markets, limit order traders can no longer be characterized as passive traders, which has led some researchers to argue that limit orders, rather than trades, are the informational unit in today’s markets. If this is true, measures such as order imbalance, which uses signed trades and captures the information from liquidity demanders, may not be as valid as they once were. We calculate two measures of limit order imbalance and examine the relation between limit order imbalances and returns. We find evidence that limit order imbalances explain returns, but conclude that traditional order imbalance has more explanatory power. Thus, our results suggest that limit orders have not trumped trades as the informational unit in today’s markets.
在现代市场中,限价单交易者不能再被描述为被动交易者,这使得一些研究人员认为,限价单而不是交易才是当今市场的信息单位。如果这是真的,那么使用已签署交易并从流动性需求方获取信息的订单不平衡等措施可能就不像以前那么有效了。我们计算了限价订单不平衡的两个度量,并检验了限价订单不平衡与收益之间的关系。研究发现,限价订单失衡可以解释收益,但传统订单失衡具有更强的解释力。因此,我们的结果表明,限价订单并没有胜过交易作为信息单位在今天的市场。
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引用次数: 3
Property Rights and CDS Spreads: When Is There a Strong Transfer Risk from the Sovereigns to the Corporates? 产权与CDS价差:何时存在从主权向企业的强烈转移风险?
IF 0.7 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2017-11-22 DOI: 10.1142/S2010139217500136
Jennie Bai, S. Wei
When a sovereign faces the risk of debt default, it attempts to expropriate the private sector. But the likelihood of a transfer from the sovereign risk to corporate default risk can be mitigated by legal institutions that provide strong property rights protection. Using a novel credit default swaps (CDSs) dataset covering both government and corporate entities across 30 countries, this paper studies the strength of the transfer risk and the role of institutions in mitigating such risk. We find that sovereign risk on average has a statistically and economically significant influence on corporate credit risk. All else equal, a 100 basis points increase in the sovereign CDS spread leads to an increase in corporate CDS spreads by 74 basis points. The sovereign–corporate relation varies across corporations, with state-owned companies exhibiting a stronger relation. However, strong property rights institutions tend to weaken the connection. In contrast, contracting institutions (protection of creditor rights or minority shareholder rights) do not appear to matter in this context.
当一个主权国家面临债务违约风险时,它会试图征用私人部门。但提供强有力的产权保护的法律制度,可以降低从主权风险向企业违约风险转移的可能性。本文利用涵盖30个国家政府和企业实体的新型信用违约互换(cds)数据集,研究了转移风险的强度以及机构在缓解此类风险方面的作用。我们发现,平均而言,主权风险对企业信用风险的影响在统计和经济上都是显著的。在其他条件相同的情况下,主权CDS价差每增加100个基点,就会导致企业CDS价差增加74个基点。主权-公司关系因公司而异,国有公司表现出更强的关系。然而,强大的产权制度往往会削弱这种联系。相比之下,缔约制度(保护债权人权利或少数股东权利)在这方面似乎并不重要。
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引用次数: 10
Cyclical and Persistent Carry Trade Returns and Forward Premia 周期性和持续性套利交易收益和远期溢价
IF 0.7 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2017-11-22 DOI: 10.1142/S2010139217500100
Haitham A. Al-Zoubi
We show that carry trade excess returns and forward premia of exchange rates possess persistent and clear business-cycle patterns. Our results contradict the peso model of hedged carry trade developed by [Burnside, C., M. Eichenbaum, I. Kleshchelski, and S. Rebelo, 2011, Do Peso Problems Explain the Returns to the Carry Trade?, Review of Financial Studies 24(3), 853–891.] and the overconfidence model of carry trade developed by [Burnside, C., B. Han, D. Hirshleifer, and T. Y. Wang, 2011, Investor Overconfidence and the Forward Premium Puzzle, Review of Economic Studies 78(2), 523–558.]. Our results support equilibrium asset pricing models and share the habit formation view of [Verdelhan, A., 2010, A Habit-Based Explanation of the Exchange Rate Risk Premium, Journal of Finance 65(1), 123–145.] that requires countercyclical risk premia. In bad times, when risk aversion is high and domestic interest rates are low, investors require positive currency excess returns. Consistent with [Lustig, H., N. Roussanov, and A. Verdelhan, 2014, Countercyclical Currency Risk Premia, Journal of Financial Economics 111(3), 527–553.] the cyclicality of excess returns is associated with the cyclicality of forward premia. We find that the persistence in forward premia and excess returns is related to their cyclicality. Our results are robust to the [Lustig, H., N. Roussanov, and A. Verdelhan, 2011, Common Risk Factors in Currency Market, Review of Financial Studies 24(11), 3731–3777; Lustig, H., N. Roussanov, and A. Verdelhan, 2014, Countercyclical Currency Risk Premia, Journal of Financial Economics 111(3), 527–553.] high-minus-low (HML) and “dollar carry trade” portfolios.
我们发现,套利交易的超额收益和远期汇率溢价具有持续而清晰的商业周期模式。本文的研究结果与Burnside, C., M. Eichenbaum, I. Kleshchelski和S. Rebelo(2011)提出的套期套利交易的比索模型相矛盾。,金融研究24(3),853-891。[C]、[b]、[D. Hirshleifer]、[T. Y.], 2011,投资者过度自信与远期溢价之谜[j].经济研究,78(2),523-558。本文的研究结果支持均衡资产定价模型,并与Verdelhan, 2010,汇率风险溢价的习惯形成观点一致[j] .金融学报,65(1),123-145。这需要逆周期风险溢价。在糟糕时期,当风险厌恶情绪高涨、国内利率较低时,投资者需要正的货币超额回报。[j] .卢斯提格,H., N. Roussanov, A. Verdelhan, 2014,逆周期货币风险溢价[j] .金融经济学报,31(3),527-553。超额收益的周期性与远期溢价的周期性有关。我们发现,远期溢价和超额收益的持续性与其周期性有关。[Lustig, H., N. Roussanov, and A. Verdelhan, 2011,外汇市场的共同风险因素,金融研究评论24(11),3731-3777];卢志强,2014,逆周期货币风险溢价,金融经济学报(3),527-553。高-低(HML)和“美元套息交易”组合。
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引用次数: 4
The Impact of Exogenous Corporate Governance Changes on Innovation and Market Value 外生公司治理变化对创新和市场价值的影响
IF 0.7 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2017-11-15 DOI: 10.1142/S2010139218400013
Lei Gao, Andrey G. Zagorchev
We investigate how exogenous corporate governance changes in terms of anti-takeover provisions affect the innovation and market value of the firm. Consistent with our conjecture, using triple difference-in-differences models, we find that the unexpected changes in the interpretation of the case law cause a decrease in innovation for Delaware firms with classified boards, entrenched managers, and in less competitive industries. We also show that after the case rulings for Delaware firms, lower (higher) innovation activities are associated with lower (higher) market values. Our results are robust to inclusion of conventional governance measures, alternative model specifications, and different measures of innovation.
我们研究了反收购条款方面的外生公司治理变化如何影响公司的创新和市场价值。与我们的猜想一致,使用三重差异模型,我们发现判例法解释的意外变化导致具有分类董事会,根深蒂固的经理和竞争较少的行业的特拉华州公司的创新减少。我们还表明,在特拉华州公司的案件裁决之后,较低(较高)的创新活动与较低(较高)的市场价值相关。我们的结果对于包含常规治理度量、可选模型规范和不同的创新度量是稳健的。
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引用次数: 1
Is There an On-the-Run Premium in TIPS? TIPS有暂存保费吗?
IF 0.7 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2017-09-25 DOI: 10.1142/S201013922050007X
Jens H. E. Christensen, Jose A. Lopez, Patrick Shultz
In the U.S. Treasury market, the most recently issued, or so-called “on-the-run,” security typically trades at a price above those of more seasoned but otherwise comparable securities. This difference is known as the on-the-run premium. In this paper, yield spreads between pairs of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) with both matching and nearly-matching maturities but of separate vintages are analyzed. Adjusting for differences in conventional liquidity premiums, values of embedded deflation options, and coupon rates, the results show a small, insignificant premium on recently issued TIPS, which leads us to conclude that there is no on-the-run premium in the TIPS market.
在美国国债市场,最新发行的证券,或所谓的“流动”证券的交易价格通常高于经验更丰富但在其他方面可比较的证券。这种差异被称为在逃溢价。本文分析了期限匹配和接近匹配但年份不同的通货膨胀保值国债(TIPS)对之间的收益率差。调整传统流动性溢价、嵌入通缩期权价值和票面利率的差异后,结果显示,最近发行的TIPS溢价很小,不显著,这使我们得出结论,TIPS市场不存在运行溢价。
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引用次数: 12
Humans, Econs and Portfolio Choice 人类、经济和投资组合选择
IF 0.7 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2017-06-01 DOI: 10.1142/S201013921750001X
M. Best, R. Grauer.
We compare the portfolio choices of Humans — prospect theory investors — to the portfolio choices of Econs — power utility and mean-variance (MV) investors. In a numerical example, prospect theory portfolios are decidedly unreasonable. In an in-sample asset allocation setting, the prospect theory results are consistent with myopic loss aversion. However, the portfolios are extremely unstable. The power utility and MV results are consistent with traditional finance theory, where the portfolios are stable across decision horizons. In an out-of-sample asset allocation setting, the power utility and portfolios outperform the prospect theory portfolios. Nonetheless the prospect theory portfolios with loss aversion coefficients of 2.25 and 2 perform well.
我们比较了人类-前景理论投资者的投资组合选择与经济-电力效用和均值方差(MV)投资者的投资组合选择。在一个数值例子中,前景理论投资组合显然是不合理的。在样本内资产配置设置下,前景理论的结果与短视损失厌恶一致。然而,这些投资组合极不稳定。电力效用和MV的结果与传统金融理论一致,其中投资组合在决策范围内是稳定的。在样本外资产配置设置中,电力公司和投资组合优于前景理论投资组合。尽管如此,损失厌恶系数为2.25和2的前景理论投资组合表现良好。
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引用次数: 2
期刊
Quarterly Journal of Finance
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