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BCA volume 14 issue 1 Cover and Front matter BCA第14卷第1期封面和封面问题
IF 3.4 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-06-14 DOI: 10.1017/bca.2023.28
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引用次数: 0
The Investment Case for E-Government Procurement: A Cost–Benefit Analysis 电子政府采购的投资案例:成本效益分析
IF 3.4 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-06-13 DOI: 10.1017/bca.2023.10
E. Bosio, G. Hayman, Nancy Dubosse
In almost every country, government is the largest buyer of works, goods, and services from the private sector. Through the laws and practice of public procurement, governments create competition among firms, thus optimizing public expenditure. However, public procurement is often associated with inefficient allocation of resources and corruption. One method to reduce inefficiencies and abuse in public procurement is the use of e-government procurement (e-GP) platforms. Yet nearly 40% of countries—mostly low- and lower-middle income countries—do not have functioning e-GP platforms. Cost–benefit analysis is used to make the investment case for the development and integration of e-procurement systems in low- and lower middle-income countries. The costs of setting up an e- GP system include an initial investment of $9.03 million, on average, for the planning, design, and build phases spread over a 5-year period. Annual operating and maintenance expenses during pilot and deployment phases are estimated at $1.1 million annually. In total, it is estimated that the net present value of costs to design, build, test, deploy, and operate a robust e-GP system is $16.7 million for a typical low- and middle-income country (at an 8% discount rate). While there are many tangible benefits of e-GP, the benefit assessed here is the reduction in the prices of goods, works, and services paid by government buyers. Using the average percentage reduction in procurement prices of 6.75%, the savings from an e-procurement system are valued at $637.9 million and $5.2 billion for low- and lower middle-income countries, respectively. The benefit–cost ratio of implementing an e-GP system in the average low-income country ranges from 8 to 58 and is 142 to 473 for a lower middle-income country. The size of the procurement market, the reduction in procurement prices, the duration of the implementation process, and the penetration rate of e-GP throughout government are principal determinants in the return on investment.
几乎在每个国家,政府都是从私营部门购买工程、商品和服务的最大买家。通过公共采购的法律和实践,政府在企业之间创造竞争,从而优化公共支出。然而,公共采购往往与资源分配效率低下和腐败有关。减少公共采购效率低下和滥用的一个方法是使用电子政府采购(e-GP)平台。然而,近40%的国家——主要是低收入和中低收入国家——没有正常运行的电子全科医生平台。成本效益分析用于在低收入和中低收入国家开发和整合电子采购系统的投资案例。建立一个电子全科医生系统的成本包括平均903万美元的初始投资,用于5年的规划、设计和建造阶段。在试验和部署阶段,每年的操作和维护费用估计为110万美元。总的来说,对于一个典型的中低收入国家(折扣率为8%),估计设计、建造、测试、部署和运行一个强大的e-GP系统的净现值为1670万美元。虽然电子gp有许多切实的好处,但这里评估的好处是降低了政府买家支付的商品、工程和服务的价格。按照采购价格平均降低6.75%的百分比计算,电子采购系统为低收入和中低收入国家分别节省了6.379亿美元和52亿美元。在一般低收入国家实施电子全科医生系统的效益-成本比为8 - 58,中等偏下收入国家为142 - 473。采购市场的规模、采购价格的降低、实施过程的持续时间以及电子gp在整个政府中的普及率是投资回报的主要决定因素。
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引用次数: 1
An Assessment of the Climate Damage Costs of European Short-Lived Climate Forcers 欧洲短期气候致变因素气候损害成本评估
IF 3.4 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-06-08 DOI: 10.1017/bca.2023.8
Stefan Åström, Lovisa Källmark
Abstract In addition to effects from greenhouse gases, climate change is affected by short-lived climate forcers (SLCF). These are often co-emitted with carbon dioxide, and some are regulated air pollutants. In the governance of these pollutants, established estimates of damage costs of pollution inform benefit–cost analyses. However, climate change impact of SLCFs is omitted from these estimates. The purpose of this study is to calculate economic damage costs of air pollutants’ effect on climate change and compare these with established damage costs. Focus is on European emissions governed in the EU National Emission Reduction Commitments Directive during 2020–2050. We use well-known SLCF emission metrics and multiply with literature values on social costs of methane to calculate climate damage costs of SLCFs. The results indicate that average absolute climate damage costs are highest for black carbon ($59,500/ton in 2050) and lowest for nonmethane volatile organic compounds ($661/ton). Our indicative values are likely underestimations. Indicative climate damage costs are usually lower than established damage costs, with notable exceptions. We propose that more detailed studies are necessary, and that inclusion of climate damage costs into economic valuation of SLCFs is important for future air pollution and climate benefit–cost analyses.
摘要 除了温室气体的影响之外,气候变化还受到短期气候作用力(SLCF)的影响。它们通常与二氧化碳共同排放,其中一些是受管制的空气污染物。在治理这些污染物时,对污染损害成本的既定估算为效益成本分析提供了依据。然而,这些估算却忽略了 SLCF 对气候变化的影响。本研究的目的是计算空气污染物对气候变化影响的经济损失成本,并将其与既定的损失成本进行比较。研究重点是《欧盟国家减排承诺指令》中规定的 2020-2050 年期间的欧洲排放量。我们使用众所周知的 SLCF 排放指标,并乘以甲烷社会成本的文献值,计算 SLCF 的气候损害成本。结果表明,黑碳的平均绝对气候损害成本最高(2050 年为 59500 美元/吨),非甲烷挥发性有机化合物最低(661 美元/吨)。我们的指示性数值很可能被低估了。指示性气候损害成本通常低于确定的损害成本,但也有明显的例外。我们建议有必要进行更详细的研究,并将气候损害成本纳入 SLCFs 的经济估值中,这对未来的空气污染和气候效益成本分析非常重要。
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引用次数: 0
Assessing Risk, Effectiveness, and Benefits in Transportation Regulation 评估运输监管的风险、有效性和效益
IF 3.4 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-06-02 DOI: 10.1017/bca.2023.19
D. V. Aiken, S. Brumbaugh
We review the practice of safety benefits analysis for federal transportation regulations in the USA. Using a case-study approach, we explore the linkages between risk assessment and benefits analysis, adding to previous work exploring these linkages for environmental health regulations. Challenges for calculating the benefits of transportation safety regulations arise because safety outcomes, like many noncancer health effects, typically do not have formal risk relationships like dose–response functions established for them. Analysts often rely on engineering or other expert judgments or resort to qualitative discussions to connect a regulatory intervention to its intended outcome. Challenges also arise when regulatory outcomes are intangible or do not have established metrics. Safety outcomes are not always measurable in concrete terms like mortality risk and may include difficult-to-operationalize concepts like “safety culture.” If the outcome is not measurable, then quantifying or monetizing the expected effects of a regulation is not possible, and the ability to conduct robust qualitative discussions also may be limited. Economists evaluating benefits for safety regulations encounter limitations analogous to difficulties found in health regulations. To inform policymaking effectively, economists and safety experts could look to the relationship developed in environmental economics between economists and health scientists.
本文回顾了美国联邦运输法规安全效益分析的实践。使用案例研究方法,我们探讨了风险评估和效益分析之间的联系,补充了以前探索环境卫生法规之间这些联系的工作。计算运输安全法规的效益面临挑战,因为安全结果与许多非癌症健康影响一样,通常没有正式的风险关系,如为其建立的剂量-反应函数。分析师通常依靠工程学或其他专家判断,或诉诸定性讨论,将监管干预与其预期结果联系起来。当监管结果是无形的或没有既定的衡量标准时,也会出现挑战。安全结果并不总是用具体的术语来衡量,比如死亡风险,还可能包括难以操作的概念,比如“安全文化”。如果结果是不可测量的,那么量化或货币化监管的预期效果是不可能的,并且进行强有力的定性讨论的能力也可能受到限制。经济学家在评估安全法规的效益时遇到了类似于健康法规的困难。为了有效地为政策制定提供信息,经济学家和安全专家可以关注环境经济学家和健康科学家之间发展起来的关系。
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引用次数: 0
When Patients are Assailants: Valuing Occupational Risks in Health Care 当病人成为攻击者时:重视医疗保健中的职业风险
IF 3.4 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.1017/bca.2023.21
Elissa P. Gentry, W. Viscusi
Abstract Intentional violence against healthcare workers inflicts a physical and mental toll, motivating legislative proposals to better regulate these occupational risks. This article uses this context to address two novel issues for benefit assessment raised by injuries from assailants: potential heterogeneity in valuation based on the context of the injury risk and possible reductions in self-reported valuations when the exposed population has been trained to feel responsible for the risk. This article presents experimental evidence on workers’ preferences over the form of intervention: protection (risk reduction) or insurance (cost-sharing). The experiment also elicits worker valuations of occupational health care risks, calculating the value of a statistical injury (VSI), based on local wage-risk tradeoffs, in the general range of $200,000. Workers accord a premium to risk reductions that might eliminate the risk of injuries. Both the physical harm and the process by which the injury occurs may affect benefit assessments for the regulation of workplace violence. Non-healthcare participants require a $40,000 premium per expected injury resulting from intentional harm. While health care workers do not generally require such a premium, health care workers in clinical positions require more compensation to face occupational risks. Insurance coverage for monetary losses is more highly valued than protective measures for accidental harms, though there is no significant comparable preference for insurance against intentional harms. The results have important practical implications for addressing the concerning phenomenon of violence against healthcare workers, suggesting that expanding insurance compensation would be desirable, as would assigning an intentionality premium to intentional injuries.
摘要 针对医护人员的蓄意暴力行为造成了身心伤害,促使人们提出立法建议,以更好地规范这些职业风险。本文以此为背景,探讨了因袭击者造成的伤害而引发的两个新的利益评估问题:基于伤害风险背景的潜在异质性估值,以及当受影响人群被训练为对风险负责时,自我报告的估值可能会降低。本文通过实验证明了工人对干预形式的偏好:保护(降低风险)或保险(分摊成本)。实验还激发了工人对职业医疗风险的估价,根据当地工资与风险的权衡,计算出统计伤害的价值(VSI),一般范围为 20 万美元。工人对可能消除工伤风险的风险降低措施给予溢价。身体伤害和伤害发生的过程都可能影响对工作场所暴力监管的效益评估。非医疗保健参与者需要为故意伤害造成的每次预期伤害支付 40,000 美元的保险费。虽然医护人员一般不需要这样的保费,但临床岗位的医护人员需要更多的补偿来面对职业风险。与针对意外伤害的保护措施相比,针对金钱损失的保险更受重视,但对针对故意伤害的保险却没有明显的可比偏好。这些结果对于解决医护人员遭受暴力侵害这一令人担忧的现象具有重要的现实意义,表明扩大保险赔偿范围是可取的,对故意伤害给予故意伤害保险费也是可取的。
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引用次数: 0
A Test of Hirschman’s Hiding Hand Principle in World Bank-Financed Hydropower Projects 赫希曼隐手原理在世行水电项目中的检验
IF 3.4 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-05-22 DOI: 10.1017/bca.2023.18
G. Olasehinde-Williams, G. Jenkins
This study is an attempt to determine whether the need to get hydropower project appraisals perfectly right during the pre-construction phase, so as to prevent significant overruns along with benefit shortfalls, should supersede the need to deliver projects at the earliest possible time so as to meet the needs of the people. To achieve the study objective, we test whether the Hiding Hand principle is predominantly benevolent or malevolent. We argue that if the Hiding Hand is benevolent, then project stakeholders are better off focusing on the quick delivery of power projects; however, if it is malevolent, then more attention should be given to perfecting project appraisals. It transpires from the statistical analysis that the Benevolent Hiding Hand dominates the Malevolent Hiding Hand in the selected World Bank-financed hydropower projects (33% v. 21%), and that ultimately, 75% of the projects were even more successful than anticipated—while 25% of the projects failed. Our findings further show that while a total loss of 2.335 billion USD in the sampled dams was caused by the Malevolent Hiding Hand, 11.259 billion USD was gained as a result of the Benevolent Hiding Hand. The predominance of the Benevolent Hiding Hand justifies placing some weight on proceeding with hydropower projects that show significant promise even if all the implantation risks are not fully quantified at the appraisal stage, especially in developing countries.
本研究试图确定,水电项目在建设前期是否需要完全正确的评估,以防止重大超支和效益不足,是否应该取代尽早交付项目的需要,以满足人民的需求。为了达到研究目的,我们测试了隐藏之手原则主要是善意还是恶意。我们认为,如果隐藏之手是仁慈的,那么项目利益相关者最好专注于电力项目的快速交付;但是,如果是恶意的,那么应该更加重视完善项目评估。从统计分析中可以看出,在选定的世界银行资助的水电项目中,“仁慈的隐藏之手”(33%对21%)比“邪恶的隐藏之手”占优势,最终75%的项目比预期的更成功,而25%的项目失败。我们的研究结果进一步表明,虽然采样水坝中恶意隐藏之手造成的总损失为23.35亿美元,但由于仁慈隐藏之手而获得的损失为112.59亿美元。由于“隐藏之手”的优势,即使在评估阶段没有充分量化所有的实施风险,特别是在发展中国家,也有理由对具有重大前景的水电项目给予一定的重视。
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引用次数: 1
Distributional weighting and welfare/equity tradeoffs: a new approach 分配加权和福利/权益权衡:一种新方法
IF 3.4 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-05-15 DOI: 10.1017/bca.2023.5
Dan Acland, D. Greenberg
Abstract There are increasing calls for concrete suggestions on how to account for distributional impacts in policy analysis. Within the context of benefit-cost analysis, per se, one possibility is to apply “distributional weights,” to inflate costs and benefits experienced by poor or disadvantaged groups. We distinguish between “utility-weights,” intended to correct for the bias in willingness to pay caused by diminishing marginal utility of income, and “equity-weights,” intended to account for the possibility that decision makers might have disproportional concern about the welfare of the poor or other disadvantaged groups. We argue that utility-weights are appropriate and necessary to maintain the legitimacy of BCA as a measure of aggregate welfare, but that equity-weights are inappropriate because they involve moral judgments that should remain in the domain of democratically accountable decision makers, and because they conflate information about both the welfare and equity impacts of policies, making it impossible for decision-makers to apply their own moral values to the assessment of tradeoffs between welfare and equity. We offer concrete suggestions regarding the application of utility-weights and the calculation of a set of metrics to provide intuitively comprehensible and useful information about, and allow decision makers to quantitatively assess the tradeoffs between, welfare and equity caused by specific policies.
越来越多的人呼吁就如何在政策分析中考虑分配影响提出具体建议。在收益-成本分析的背景下,一种可能性是应用“分配权重”,以夸大贫困或弱势群体所经历的成本和收益。我们区分了“效用权重”(utility-weights)和“公平权重”(equity-weights),前者旨在纠正因收入边际效用递减而导致的支付意愿偏差,后者旨在解释决策者对穷人或其他弱势群体的福利过度关注的可能性。我们认为,效用权重对于维持BCA作为总福利衡量标准的合法性是适当和必要的,但权益权重是不合适的,因为它们涉及道德判断,应该留在民主负责的决策者的领域,因为它们混淆了政策对福利和公平影响的信息。使决策者无法运用自己的道德价值观来评估福利与公平之间的权衡。我们就效用权重的应用和一组指标的计算提出了具体建议,以提供直观易懂和有用的信息,并允许决策者定量评估具体政策造成的福利与公平之间的权衡。
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引用次数: 2
The Welfare Cost of Beijing’s Lottery Policy: Evidence from a Contingent Valuation Survey 北京市彩票政策的福利成本:来自条件评估调查的证据
IF 3.4 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-05-12 DOI: 10.1017/bca.2023.9
Ping Qin, Yifei Quan, A. Liu, Joshua Linn, Jun Yang
Motivated by traffic congestion and air pollution, Beijing is one of several major cities to restrict vehicle ownership by requiring residents to win a lottery for the right to obtain an additional car. We examine the welfare cost of preventing people from owning cars because of misallocation: under a lottery, some individuals with low willingness to pay (WTP) for cars can obtain cars, while other individuals with high WTP cannot. We estimate welfare costs using a new contingent valuation method survey of Beijing lottery participants which we designed and conducted explicitly for this purpose. We find that restricting vehicle ownership reduced private welfare by 26 billion yuan. Back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that the benefits of lower congestion and pollution roughly equal the costs. Our WTP estimates indicate a net welfare gain of approximately 32 billion yuan if Beijing’s lottery were replaced with an auction, which is similar to previous estimates.
受交通拥堵和空气污染的影响,北京是限制机动车拥有量的几个主要城市之一,要求居民通过摇号获得额外车辆的权利。我们研究了由于分配不当而阻止人们拥有汽车的福利成本:在摇号制度下,一些购买汽车意愿低的人可以获得汽车,而另一些购买汽车意愿高的人则不能。我们使用一种新的条件估值方法对北京彩票参与者进行了调查,这是我们为此目的而设计和实施的。我们发现限制机动车拥有量减少了260亿元的私人福利。粗略的计算表明,减少拥堵和污染带来的收益与成本大致相等。我们的WTP估计表明,如果北京的彩票被拍卖取代,净福利收益约为320亿元人民币,这与之前的估计相似。
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引用次数: 1
The Generalized Risk-Adjusted Cost-Effectiveness (GRACE) Model for Measuring the Value of Gains in Health: An Exact Formulation 衡量健康收益价值的广义风险调整成本效益(GRACE)模型:一个精确的公式
IF 3.4 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-04-03 DOI: 10.1017/bca.2023.6
D. Lakdawalla, C. Phelps
Abstract The generalized risk-adjusted cost-effectiveness (GRACE) analysis method modifies standard cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA), the primary method currently used worldwide to value health improvements arising from healthcare interventions. Generalizing standard CEA, GRACE allows for decreasing or even increasing returns to health. Previous presentations of GRACE have relied extensively on Taylor Series expansion methods to specify key model parameters, including those that properly adjust for illness severity and preexisting disability, consequences of uncertain treatment outcomes, and the marginal rate of substitution between life expectancy and health-related quality of life. Standard CEA cannot account for these sources of value or cost in its valuation of medical treatments. However, calculations of GRACE measures based on Taylor Series are approximations, which may be poorly behaved in some contexts. This paper provides a new approach for implementing GRACE, using exact utility functions instead of Taylor Series approximations. While any proper utility function will suffice, we illustrate with three well-known functions: constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) utility; hyperbolic absolute risk aversion (HARA) utility, of which CRRA is a special case; and expo-power (EP) utility, of which constant absolute risk aversion (CARA) is a special case. The analysis then extends from two-period to multiperiod models. We discuss methods to estimate parameters of HARA and EP functions using two different types of data, one from discrete choice experiments and the other from “happiness economics” methods. We conclude with some reflections on how this analysis might affect benefit-cost analysis studies of healthcare interventions.
广义风险调整成本-效果(GRACE)分析方法对标准成本-效果分析(CEA)进行了改进,标准成本-效果分析是目前世界范围内用于评估卫生保健干预措施引起的健康改善的主要方法。推广标准CEA, GRACE允许降低甚至增加健康回报。GRACE之前的报告广泛依赖于泰勒级数展开方法来指定关键模型参数,包括适当调整疾病严重程度和先前存在的残疾、不确定治疗结果的后果以及预期寿命与健康相关生活质量之间的边际替代率的参数。标准CEA在对医疗进行估价时不能考虑这些价值或成本来源。然而,基于泰勒级数的GRACE测量的计算是近似值,在某些情况下可能表现不佳。本文提供了一种实现GRACE的新方法,使用精确效用函数代替泰勒级数近似。虽然任何适当的效用函数都足够了,但我们用三个众所周知的函数来说明:恒定相对风险厌恶(CRRA)效用;双曲绝对风险厌恶(HARA)效用,其中CRRA是一个特例;和输出功率(EP)效用,其中恒定绝对风险厌恶(CARA)是一个特例。然后,分析从两期模型扩展到多期模型。本文讨论了用两种不同类型的数据估计HARA和EP函数参数的方法,一种来自离散选择实验,另一种来自“幸福经济学”方法。我们总结了一些关于该分析如何影响医疗保健干预的效益-成本分析研究的思考。
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引用次数: 2
An Equity Blindspot: The Incidence of Regulatory Costs 一个股权盲点:监管成本的发生率
IF 3.4 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-03-31 DOI: 10.1017/bca.2023.3
C. Cecot
Abstract The Biden administration has made equity a priority when issuing regulations, encouraging agencies to ensure that their regulations appropriately benefit and do not inappropriately burden disadvantaged groups. But scholarly examinations of agencies’ practices to date on understanding the distributional consequences of their regulations and on promoting equity have revealed significant gaps. In particular, agencies pay very little attention to the incidence of the costs of their regulations. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, for example, rarely considers the incidence of regulatory costs among disadvantaged groups, despite being an agency that conducts relatively complete benefit–cost analyses and explicitly analyzes environmental justice implications of its regulations. But this cost-blindness is a mistake; it presents a missed opportunity to use the current equity-focused momentum to make real improvements for disadvantaged groups that could have long-lasting effects. This essay calls for agencies to give more attention to the incidence of regulatory costs in order to identify needs and opportunities for grants and investments to disadvantaged groups. This approach could provide much-needed direction for a program like the Biden administration’s Justice40 initiative.
拜登政府在制定法规时将公平放在首位,鼓励各机构确保其法规适当地惠及弱势群体,而不是给弱势群体带来不适当的负担。但迄今为止,对各机构在理解其监管规定的分配后果和促进公平方面的做法进行的学术研究显示出了巨大的差距。特别是,各机构很少注意其规章的成本。例如,美国环境保护署是一个进行相对完整的效益-成本分析并明确分析其法规对环境正义影响的机构,但它很少考虑弱势群体的监管成本发生率。但这种成本盲目性是错误的;它错失了利用当前以股票为重点的势头为弱势群体做出真正改善的机会,这可能会产生长期影响。本文呼吁各机构更多地关注监管成本的发生率,以便确定向弱势群体提供赠款和投资的需求和机会。这种方法可以为拜登政府的Justice40倡议等项目提供急需的方向。
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引用次数: 2
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Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis
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