Abstract Benefit-cost analyses of regulations address Kaldor-Hicks efficiency but rarely investigate the distribution of benefits and costs as experienced by low-income households. In order to fill this gap, this article assembles the available evidence to determine how regulations of the automobile industry may impact the well-being of low-income Americans. The scope of the investigation includes air pollution, safety and fuel-economy regulations. We find that performing benefit-cost analyses for low-income households is more challenging than commonly understood. Given the difficulties in completing distributional analysis with available information, the authors offer practical suggestions on how to change the federal data systems and the rulemaking process to ensure that information is collected about how future automobile regulations impact the well-being of the poor.
{"title":"The Benefits and Costs of Automotive Regulations for Low-Income Americans","authors":"Kylie Conrad, John D. Graham","doi":"10.1017/bca.2021.12","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/bca.2021.12","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Benefit-cost analyses of regulations address Kaldor-Hicks efficiency but rarely investigate the distribution of benefits and costs as experienced by low-income households. In order to fill this gap, this article assembles the available evidence to determine how regulations of the automobile industry may impact the well-being of low-income Americans. The scope of the investigation includes air pollution, safety and fuel-economy regulations. We find that performing benefit-cost analyses for low-income households is more challenging than commonly understood. Given the difficulties in completing distributional analysis with available information, the authors offer practical suggestions on how to change the federal data systems and the rulemaking process to ensure that information is collected about how future automobile regulations impact the well-being of the poor.","PeriodicalId":45587,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis","volume":"72 1","pages":"518 - 549"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2021-11-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88797076","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Most cost-benefit analyses assume that the estimates of costs and benefits are more or less accurate and unbiased. But what if, in reality, estimates are highly inaccurate and biased? Then the assumption that cost-benefit analysis is a rational way to improve resource allocation would be a fallacy. Based on the largest dataset of its kind, we test the assumption that cost and benefit estimates of public investments are accurate and unbiased. We find this is not the case with overwhelming statistical significance. We document the extent of cost overruns, benefit shortfalls, and forecasting bias in public investments. We further assess whether such inaccuracies seriously distort effective resource allocation, which is found to be the case. We explain our findings in behavioral terms and explore their policy implications. Finally, we conclude that cost-benefit analysis of public investments stands in need of reform and we outline four steps to such reform.
{"title":"The Cost-Benefit Fallacy: Why Cost-Benefit Analysis Is Broken and How to Fix It","authors":"B. Flyvbjerg, Dirk W. Bester","doi":"10.1017/bca.2021.9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/bca.2021.9","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Most cost-benefit analyses assume that the estimates of costs and benefits are more or less accurate and unbiased. But what if, in reality, estimates are highly inaccurate and biased? Then the assumption that cost-benefit analysis is a rational way to improve resource allocation would be a fallacy. Based on the largest dataset of its kind, we test the assumption that cost and benefit estimates of public investments are accurate and unbiased. We find this is not the case with overwhelming statistical significance. We document the extent of cost overruns, benefit shortfalls, and forecasting bias in public investments. We further assess whether such inaccuracies seriously distort effective resource allocation, which is found to be the case. We explain our findings in behavioral terms and explore their policy implications. Finally, we conclude that cost-benefit analysis of public investments stands in need of reform and we outline four steps to such reform.","PeriodicalId":45587,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis","volume":"44 1","pages":"395 - 419"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2021-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72816874","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
P. Koundouri, Nikos Chatzistamoulou, Osiel González Dávila, Amerissa Giannouli, Nikolaos C. Kourogenis, A. Xepapadeas, Petros Xepapadeas
{"title":"Open Access in Scientific Information: Sustainability Model and Business Plan for the Infrastructure and Organization of OpenAIRE –Corrigendum","authors":"P. Koundouri, Nikos Chatzistamoulou, Osiel González Dávila, Amerissa Giannouli, Nikolaos C. Kourogenis, A. Xepapadeas, Petros Xepapadeas","doi":"10.1017/bca.2021.3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/bca.2021.3","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":45587,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis","volume":"26 1","pages":"394 - 394"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2021-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82262292","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
K. Krutilla, D. Good, Michael T. Toman, Tijen Arin
Abstract Mineral deposits of base metals, precious metals, and rare earth elements have been discovered on deep seabeds, and the commercial exploitation of these resources seems poised to begin after faltering for many years. The development of seabed resources could be socially beneficial if all goes well, but the industry faces daunting challenges and uncertainties. Emerging regulations and contracting mechanisms are the principal means for managing these uncertainties. This article recommends a complementary approach: the use of ex ante benefit–cost analysis of proposed seabed mining contracts that incorporates a fundamental uncertainty evaluation. We argue that such an ex ante evaluation will improve the state of information for the decision-making, reducing the risk of regulatory noncompliance or costly contract disputes after seabed mining begins.
{"title":"Addressing Fundamental Uncertainty in Benefit–Cost Analysis: The Case of Deep Seabed Mining","authors":"K. Krutilla, D. Good, Michael T. Toman, Tijen Arin","doi":"10.1017/bca.2020.28","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/bca.2020.28","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Mineral deposits of base metals, precious metals, and rare earth elements have been discovered on deep seabeds, and the commercial exploitation of these resources seems poised to begin after faltering for many years. The development of seabed resources could be socially beneficial if all goes well, but the industry faces daunting challenges and uncertainties. Emerging regulations and contracting mechanisms are the principal means for managing these uncertainties. This article recommends a complementary approach: the use of ex ante benefit–cost analysis of proposed seabed mining contracts that incorporates a fundamental uncertainty evaluation. We argue that such an ex ante evaluation will improve the state of information for the decision-making, reducing the risk of regulatory noncompliance or costly contract disputes after seabed mining begins.","PeriodicalId":45587,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis","volume":"94 1","pages":"122 - 151"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2021-02-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87512795","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
T. Miller, M. Cohen, D. Swedler, B. Ali, D. Hendrie
Abstract Total cost estimates for crime in the USA are both out-of-date and incomplete. We estimated incidence and costs of personal crimes (both violent and non-violent) and property crimes in 2017. Incidence came from national arrest data, multi-state estimates of police-reported crimes per arrest, national victimization and road crash surveys, and police underreporting studies. We updated and expanded upon published unit costs. Estimated crime costs totaled $2.6 trillion ($620 billion in monetary costs plus quality of life losses valued at $1.95 trillion; 95 % uncertainty interval $2.2–$3.0 trillion). Violent crime accounted for 85 % of costs. Principal contributors to the 10.9 million quality-adjusted life years lost were sexual violence, physical assault/robbery, and child maltreatment. Monetary expenditures caused by criminal victimization represent 3 % of Gross Domestic Product – equivalent to the amount spent on national defense. These estimates exclude the additional costs of preventing and avoiding crime such as enhanced lighting and burglar alarms. They also exclude crimes against businesses and most white-collar and corporate offenses.
{"title":"Incidence and Costs of Personal and Property Crimes in the USA, 2017","authors":"T. Miller, M. Cohen, D. Swedler, B. Ali, D. Hendrie","doi":"10.1017/bca.2020.36","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/bca.2020.36","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Total cost estimates for crime in the USA are both out-of-date and incomplete. We estimated incidence and costs of personal crimes (both violent and non-violent) and property crimes in 2017. Incidence came from national arrest data, multi-state estimates of police-reported crimes per arrest, national victimization and road crash surveys, and police underreporting studies. We updated and expanded upon published unit costs. Estimated crime costs totaled $2.6 trillion ($620 billion in monetary costs plus quality of life losses valued at $1.95 trillion; 95 % uncertainty interval $2.2–$3.0 trillion). Violent crime accounted for 85 % of costs. Principal contributors to the 10.9 million quality-adjusted life years lost were sexual violence, physical assault/robbery, and child maltreatment. Monetary expenditures caused by criminal victimization represent 3 % of Gross Domestic Product – equivalent to the amount spent on national defense. These estimates exclude the additional costs of preventing and avoiding crime such as enhanced lighting and burglar alarms. They also exclude crimes against businesses and most white-collar and corporate offenses.","PeriodicalId":45587,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis","volume":"51 1","pages":"24 - 54"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2021-02-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81005009","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Bystander programs contribute to crime prevention by motivating people to intervene in violent situations. Social media allow addressing very specific target groups, and provide valuable information for program evaluation. This paper provides a conceptual framework for conducting benefit–cost analysis of bystander programs and puts a particular focus on the use of social media for program dissemination and data collection. The benefit–cost model treats publicly funded programs as investment projects and calculates the benefit–cost ratio. Program benefit arises from the damages avoided by preventing violent crime. We provide systematic instructions for estimating this benefit. The explained estimation techniques draw on social media data, machine-learning technology, randomized controlled trials and discrete choice experiments. In addition, we introduce a complementary approach with benefits calculated from the public attention generated by the program. To estimate the value of public attention, the approach uses the bid landscaping method, which originates from display advertising. The presented approaches offer the tools to implement a benefit–costs analysis in practice. The growing importance of social media for the dissemination of policy programs requires new evaluation methods. By providing two such methods, this paper contributes to evidence-based decision-making in a growing policy area.
{"title":"Benefit–Cost Analysis of Social Media Facilitated Bystander Programs","authors":"A. Ebers, Stephan L. Thomsen","doi":"10.1017/bca.2020.34","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/bca.2020.34","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Bystander programs contribute to crime prevention by motivating people to intervene in violent situations. Social media allow addressing very specific target groups, and provide valuable information for program evaluation. This paper provides a conceptual framework for conducting benefit–cost analysis of bystander programs and puts a particular focus on the use of social media for program dissemination and data collection. The benefit–cost model treats publicly funded programs as investment projects and calculates the benefit–cost ratio. Program benefit arises from the damages avoided by preventing violent crime. We provide systematic instructions for estimating this benefit. The explained estimation techniques draw on social media data, machine-learning technology, randomized controlled trials and discrete choice experiments. In addition, we introduce a complementary approach with benefits calculated from the public attention generated by the program. To estimate the value of public attention, the approach uses the bid landscaping method, which originates from display advertising. The presented approaches offer the tools to implement a benefit–costs analysis in practice. The growing importance of social media for the dissemination of policy programs requires new evaluation methods. By providing two such methods, this paper contributes to evidence-based decision-making in a growing policy area.","PeriodicalId":45587,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis","volume":"17 1","pages":"367 - 393"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2021-02-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82450618","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract The problem of how to evaluate investments in airports has now been studied for over 50 years. This paper analyzes the use of different methods like cost–benefit analysis (CBA), economic impact analysis (EIA), and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models to address the question. It assesses the strength and weaknesses of each method, and it discusses which methods have been used in different countries. The paper argues that the CBA approach and the newer CGE modeling approach address the policy issue well and that both methods are appropriate, although improvements are possible, especially in the newer aspects of evaluation. Furthermore, more data intensive CGE models are able to analyze broader aspects of the evaluation question for which CBA has had difficulty. EIA does not address the problem satisfactorily, and it misleads air transport policy. But this evaluation contrasts sharply with practice. EIA has been extensively used to decide on airport investment. CGE approaches are very promising, though further work is needed for them to reach their full potential. This paper pays particular attention to the relationship between CBA and CGE in airport investment evaluation and also the possible role of wider economic benefits (WEBs) of aviation in evaluation.
{"title":"Economic Evaluation of Investments in Airports: Recent Developments","authors":"P. Forsyth, Hans-Martin Niemeier, E. Njoya","doi":"10.1017/bca.2020.31","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/bca.2020.31","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The problem of how to evaluate investments in airports has now been studied for over 50 years. This paper analyzes the use of different methods like cost–benefit analysis (CBA), economic impact analysis (EIA), and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models to address the question. It assesses the strength and weaknesses of each method, and it discusses which methods have been used in different countries. The paper argues that the CBA approach and the newer CGE modeling approach address the policy issue well and that both methods are appropriate, although improvements are possible, especially in the newer aspects of evaluation. Furthermore, more data intensive CGE models are able to analyze broader aspects of the evaluation question for which CBA has had difficulty. EIA does not address the problem satisfactorily, and it misleads air transport policy. But this evaluation contrasts sharply with practice. EIA has been extensively used to decide on airport investment. CGE approaches are very promising, though further work is needed for them to reach their full potential. This paper pays particular attention to the relationship between CBA and CGE in airport investment evaluation and also the possible role of wider economic benefits (WEBs) of aviation in evaluation.","PeriodicalId":45587,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis","volume":"29 1","pages":"85 - 121"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2021-02-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78970530","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
L. Baumstark, R. Guesnerie, Jincheng Ni, Jean-Paul Ourliac
Abstract Socioeconomic evaluation of a public investment helps to understand its value for the community, and it also improves an investment by analyzing its different components, and the risks inherent in its completion. The Act of 31 December 2012 about Public Finance Planning makes it mandatory in France for project sponsors to conduct an ex-ante socioeconomic evaluation of all public civil investments made by the State and its public institutions. An independent counter-expert assessment of the ex-ante socioeconomic evaluation is conducted for the largest projects. A permanent committee of experts has been established to specify the methodological rules for socioeconomic evaluation and define the studies and research necessary.
{"title":"Cost–Benefit Assessment of Public Investments in France: The Use of Counter-Experts","authors":"L. Baumstark, R. Guesnerie, Jincheng Ni, Jean-Paul Ourliac","doi":"10.1017/bca.2020.30","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/bca.2020.30","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Socioeconomic evaluation of a public investment helps to understand its value for the community, and it also improves an investment by analyzing its different components, and the risks inherent in its completion. The Act of 31 December 2012 about Public Finance Planning makes it mandatory in France for project sponsors to conduct an ex-ante socioeconomic evaluation of all public civil investments made by the State and its public institutions. An independent counter-expert assessment of the ex-ante socioeconomic evaluation is conducted for the largest projects. A permanent committee of experts has been established to specify the methodological rules for socioeconomic evaluation and define the studies and research necessary.","PeriodicalId":45587,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis","volume":"23 1","pages":"152 - 169"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2021-02-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73492381","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract It has been demonstrated that irrationality reduces the efficiency of individuals’ allocations, as measured by their “true” or rational preferences. There is also evidence that poverty increases irrationality of different sorts. As a result, the net benefit to society of a cash transfer from taxpayers to welfare recipients may not be zero. The fact that the transfer will be allocated less efficiently by the recipients than by the taxpayers will reduce the value of the transfer, while if the transfer increases recipients’ rationality, it will increase the efficiency of the allocation of their pretransfer budgets, thus increasing the value of the transfer. The net effect on society will be positive or negative, depending in large part on the degree to which the transfer increases rationality. I model these effects in the context of present-biased preferences and explore the effect of irrationality, income, and the size of transfer on the value of transfers. I conclude that under a plausible range of conditions, transfers can generate a substantial positive net benefit. I also model the choices of a fully rational paternalist and find little support for paternalistic in-kind transfers.
{"title":"Poverty, Irrationality, and the Value of Cash Transfers","authors":"Dan Acland","doi":"10.1017/bca.2020.22","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/bca.2020.22","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract It has been demonstrated that irrationality reduces the efficiency of individuals’ allocations, as measured by their “true” or rational preferences. There is also evidence that poverty increases irrationality of different sorts. As a result, the net benefit to society of a cash transfer from taxpayers to welfare recipients may not be zero. The fact that the transfer will be allocated less efficiently by the recipients than by the taxpayers will reduce the value of the transfer, while if the transfer increases recipients’ rationality, it will increase the efficiency of the allocation of their pretransfer budgets, thus increasing the value of the transfer. The net effect on society will be positive or negative, depending in large part on the degree to which the transfer increases rationality. I model these effects in the context of present-biased preferences and explore the effect of irrationality, income, and the size of transfer on the value of transfers. I conclude that under a plausible range of conditions, transfers can generate a substantial positive net benefit. I also model the choices of a fully rational paternalist and find little support for paternalistic in-kind transfers.","PeriodicalId":45587,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis","volume":"93 1","pages":"227 - 257"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2021-02-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73554211","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This article describes a methodology for a risk-informed benefit–cost analysis that includes (i) risk analysis to quantify risk reduction benefits and (ii) uncertainty analyses to quantify probability distributions over costs and benefits. It also summarizes the lessons from 25 applications of this methodology to evaluate R&D projects of the Science and Technology Directorate of the Department of Homeland Security. The article then illustrates the methodology with a specific application to evaluate the benefits and costs of the Advanced Personal Protection System (APPS), a new garment system developed to protect wildland firefighters. The goals of the APPS project were to reduce risk and to improve comfort. The cost analysis revealed that the APPS garments are more expensive by about $279 per garment system. Total costs were roughly $7.3 million, including the upfront project cost and the increased 5 year cost of purchasing the APPS. Benefits from reduced injuries and fatalities resulted in 5 year benefits of about $19.3 million, with an NPV of $13.6 million in 2019 dollars. In the base case, the benefit–cost ratio was 2.87 and the return on investment was 187 % over 5 years. Taking the perspective of a decision-maker when the project was first funded in 2011, NPVs are $11,993,728, $10,025,519, and $7,967,479 in 2011 dollars for discount rates of 0, 3, and 7 % respectively. An uncertainty analysis of the NPV showed a large variability, ranging from the 5th percentile of $6.4 million to a median of $19.3 million to the 95th percentile of $43.7 million in 2019 dollars. This large range was primarily due to the uncertainty about the reduction of fatality and injury risks and the market penetration rates of the new garments.
{"title":"Risk-Informed Benefit–Cost Analysis for Homeland Security R&D: Methodology and an Application to Evaluating the Advanced Personal Protection System for Wildland Firefighters","authors":"S. Thrift, D. von Winterfeldt","doi":"10.1017/bca.2020.33","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/bca.2020.33","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This article describes a methodology for a risk-informed benefit–cost analysis that includes (i) risk analysis to quantify risk reduction benefits and (ii) uncertainty analyses to quantify probability distributions over costs and benefits. It also summarizes the lessons from 25 applications of this methodology to evaluate R&D projects of the Science and Technology Directorate of the Department of Homeland Security. The article then illustrates the methodology with a specific application to evaluate the benefits and costs of the Advanced Personal Protection System (APPS), a new garment system developed to protect wildland firefighters. The goals of the APPS project were to reduce risk and to improve comfort. The cost analysis revealed that the APPS garments are more expensive by about $279 per garment system. Total costs were roughly $7.3 million, including the upfront project cost and the increased 5 year cost of purchasing the APPS. Benefits from reduced injuries and fatalities resulted in 5 year benefits of about $19.3 million, with an NPV of $13.6 million in 2019 dollars. In the base case, the benefit–cost ratio was 2.87 and the return on investment was 187 % over 5 years. Taking the perspective of a decision-maker when the project was first funded in 2011, NPVs are $11,993,728, $10,025,519, and $7,967,479 in 2011 dollars for discount rates of 0, 3, and 7 % respectively. An uncertainty analysis of the NPV showed a large variability, ranging from the 5th percentile of $6.4 million to a median of $19.3 million to the 95th percentile of $43.7 million in 2019 dollars. This large range was primarily due to the uncertainty about the reduction of fatality and injury risks and the market penetration rates of the new garments.","PeriodicalId":45587,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis","volume":"15 1","pages":"335 - 366"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2021-02-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86640447","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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